Alaska Sustainable Salmon Fund Statement of Work

Alaska Sustainable Salmon Fund Statement of Work I. Project Title: Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 II. Project Number: III. Principal Investigator Jim Murphy, Fisheries Research Biologist National Marine Fisheries Service Auke Bay Laboratories Alaska Fisheries Science Center 17109 Point Lena Loop Road Juneau, AK 99801 907-789-6651 jim.murphy@noaa.gov Co-Principal Investigators Dr. Kathrine Howard, AYK Fisheries Scientist Alaska Department of Fish and Game Division of Commercial Fisheries 333 Raspberry Rd Anchorage, AK 99518 907-267-2141 kathrine.howard@alaska.gov Dr. Brad Harris, Associate Professor Alaska Pacific University Fisheries, Aquatic Science, & Technology Laboratory 4101 University Drive Anchorage, AK 99508 907-564-8802 bharris@alaskapacific.edu Sabrina Garcia, AYK Research Biologist Alaska Department of Fish and Game Division of Commercial Fisheries 333 Raspberry Rd Anchorage, AK 99518 907-267-2180 sabrina.garcia@alaska.gov Kristin Cieciel, Fisheries Research Biologist National Marine Fisheries Service Auke Bay Laboratories Alaska Fisheries Science Center Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 Page 1 of 9

17109 Point Lena Loop Road Juneau, AK 99801 907-789-6089 kris.cieciel@noaa.gov Dr. Nathan Wolf, Assistant Professor Alaska Pacific University Fisheries, Aquatic Science, & Technology Laboratory 4101 University Drive Anchorage, AK 99508 907-564-8202 nwolf@alaskapacific.edu IV. Project Period: 3/1/18-11/30/20 V. AKSSF Objective: 2A-4 PCSRF Objective: RM&E VI. Project Description 1. Synopsis Up to 90% of total statewide subsistence harvest of Chinook salmon occurs in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim (AYK) region, with half of that from the Yukon River in some years. Recent declines in Chinook salmon returns to the AYK region have resulted in severely restricted subsistence harvests. Marine surveys in the northeastern Bering Sea (NBS) have provided unique insight into the marine ecology and survival of Yukon River Chinook salmon. A key advancement of these marine surveys has been the development of run size forecasting tools for Yukon River Chinook salmon based on stock-specific juvenile abundance. This project will perform the NBS surface trawl survey and stock-specific abundance estimates of juvenile Chinook salmon during 2019 for Canada-origin, Alaska-origin, and total Yukon River Chinook. 2. Introduction Closures of commercial and sport fisheries, and severe reductions in subsistence fisheries (including closures), have been implemented in response to declining production levels of AYK Chinook salmon stocks. Escapement objectives have not been met despite unprecedented harvest reductions in recent years. Although causes of this production decline are unclear, concurrent declines throughout Alaska have placed emphasis on ocean conditions and the marine life history stage of Chinook salmon. Marine research in response to this knowledge gap has resulted in unique insight into the juvenile ecology of Chinook salmon during this critical life history stage. Ongoing work in the NBS has provided important ecological and management insights for Yukon River Chinook salmon. These surveys occur primarily in September and capture juvenile salmon after they experience a critical transition from freshwater to marine environments. Yukon River Chinook salmon typically account for 90-96% of the juvenile Chinook salmon in the northern Bering Sea. Research on Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 Page 2 of 9

size selective mortality; juvenile distributions; and diet and nutritional ecology have all added insight into the marine ecology of Chinook salmon in the NBS. Juvenile abundance estimates from the survey have been incorporated into a juvenile-based forecast model for Yukon River Chinook salmon and used by managers, the public, and the US/Canada Yukon River Panel to assist with management decisions. Reliable run size forecasting tools have become critical to Yukon River fishery managers and stakeholders decision making in recent years of low Chinook salmon productivity and significant harvest restrictions: the forecasts produced from juvenile abundance estimates are the most promising approach for pre-season forecast models to date. This project will provide additional insight into the marine ecology and production dynamics of Yukon River Chinook salmon as well as assist with fisheries management decisions. Stock-specific juvenile abundance in 2019 will support the Canadian-origin Chinook salmon forecast model and comparable run size forecast models will be developed for Alaskan-origin and total Yukon River Chinook salmon to assist with fisheries management decisions. 3. Location Northeastern Bering Sea: Latitude: 60-65, Longitude: Inshore of -170 (e.g., 64.079884, -168.046875) 4. Related Projects 44211 VII. Objectives Estimate juvenile Chinook salmon abundance in the northern Bering Sea during 2019 Estimate Chinook salmon stock mixtures present in the northern Bering Sea during 2018 and 2019 and incorporate stock structure information into juvenile abundance indices to define the relationships between juvenile abundance, adult returns, and spawner abundance Provide run size forecasts for Canadian-origin Chinook and total Yukon River Chinook salmon run size estimates to assist with inriver salmon fisheries management Summarize juvenile size, diet, condition, and trophic status of Chinook salmon from the 2019 survey to add further insight into their early marine ecology in the northern Bering Sea Methods Trawl Survey A 25 day trawl survey will be conducted within the northern region of the NBS shelf during late August and September 2019. The survey will use a systematic spatial sampling design with sampling stations approximately 30 nautical miles apart. A Seabird 9-11 Conductivity Temperature Depth (CTD) will be used to collect oceanographic data prior to the start of each trawl station. A Cantrawl model 400/601 rope trawl (made by Cantrawl Pacific Ltd., Richmond, B.C.) will be towed at the surface for 30 minutes at each station aboard a chartered commercial fishing vessel. The contents of each trawl haul will be sorted and weighed by species. Up to 50 individuals from each species at each station will be measured for length and weight. Genetic tissues will be collected from all juvenile Chinook salmon to determine freshwater origin. Up to 10 juvenile Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 Page 3 of 9

Chinook salmon from each station will be analyzed for stomach content and stable isotopes, and up to two fish per station will be frozen for energetic analysis. Otoliths and scales will also be collected from juvenile salmon. Gonad development data will be used to determine sex and maturity status of immature and mature salmon. Chinook Salmon Abundance Chinook salmon abundance estimates will be derived from the catch using area swept expansion. Catch will be estimated as the total number of juvenile Chinook salmon at a given station. Area swept will be estimated by multiplying the horizontal spread of the trawl by the distance trawled, based on the start and end GPS locations, for each station. Catch per unit area (CPUA, #/km 2 ) will be calculated for juvenile Chinook salmon at every station sampled. CPUA indices will be expanded to the total survey area and by mixed layer depth to estimate total juvenile Chinook salmon abundance in the NBS. Genetic stock composition will be applied to total juvenile Chinook salmon abundance estimates to develop stock-specific abundance estimates. Age-structured return projections for Canadian-origin Chinook salmon will be constructed from Canadianorigin juvenile abundance, average marine survival, and average maturation rates. Diet, Nutritional Status, and Condition Several indicators of juvenile Chinook salmon life history and condition status will be examined in NBS stocks including size at capture, diet, and energy density. Size at capture (length and weight) of juvenile Chinook salmon will be standardized to a common capture date based on an assumed growth rate of 1 mm/day or 1.2% body weight g/day. Diet and nutritional status of juvenile Chinook salmon will be examined at multiple time scales using both stomach content analysis (last meal) and stable isotope analysis (diet at multiple temporal scales) to evaluate dietary inputs and trophic status of juvenile Chinook salmon in the NBS. Stomach contents will be assessed by identifying and measuring, to the lowest taxonomic level, the stomach contents of up to 150 juvenile Chinook salmon from the 2019 NBS samples (led by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game with participation from Alaska Pacific University (APU) graduate students). Stable isotope analysis will be conducted by the APU s Fisheries, Aquatic Science, and Technology (FAST) Laboratory. Mucus, blood, liver, smooth muscle, striated muscle, bone, and otoliths vary in the rates at which they incorporate the isotopic signatures of dietary items, ranging from <30 days to the lifetime of the fish. Consequently, stable isotope analysis of this suite of tissues will provide a set of distinct temporal windows through which dietary composition and trophic interactions can be assessed during the riverine, river-marine transition, and early marine phases of individual fish. Success in meeting objectives will be evaluated by the ability to estimate juvenile Chinook salmon abundance in the NBS similar to the level of variability from past surveys which have proven viable for adult forecasting. The coefficient of variation (CV) will be calculated for the 2019 NBS juvenile abundance estimates. If the 2019 NBS CV falls within the range of CVs calculated throughout the entire time series of NBS juvenile abundance data (2002 2007, 2009 2016), it will indicate that the precision in the abundance estimates is likely adequate for forecasting adult run sizes. Collecting Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 Page 4 of 9

minimum samples sizes for stomach content and stable isotope analyses will ensure meeting the diet and nutritional status objective. VIII. Benefits Chinook salmon are a key subsistence stock in the AYK region. This project will assist fisheries management through pre-season forecast models of run size and add insight into the marine ecology and production dynamics of Yukon River Chinook salmon. Reliable pre-season forecasts will assist with management plans, enable management strategies to be developed consistent with stock status, and reduce foregone harvest. Canadian-origin forecast models have provided significant assistance with fisheries management planning in recent years and similar assistance with management decisions is expected with total Yukon and Alaskan-origin Chinook salmon forecast models. IX. Products, Milestones, and Timelines August/September 2018: 2018 NBS survey (funded separately) November 2018 February 2019: Complete lab work related to the 2018 survey genetic analysis April-June 2019: Submit cruise plan, obtain scientific research permits, order survey supplies August-September 2019: Conduct NBS survey (25 days) October 2019 June 2020: Complete cruise report, diet summaries, genetic analysis, and nutritional analysis of juvenile Chinook salmon related to the 2019 survey April 2020 October 2020: Complete data analysis and draft final project report November 30, 2020: Submit final report to AKSSF X. Project Budget Summary Budget 100 Personnel $3,000 200 Travel $10,240 300 Contractual $336,800 400 Supplies $29,525 Subtotal $379,565 600 Indirect $1,366 $380,931 This project funds the following entities: ADF&G: $25,025 NMFS: $340,880 APU: $15,026 ADF&G Budget ADF&G Budget 100 Personnel $0 200 Travel $0 Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 Page 5 of 9

300 Contractual $0 400 Supplies $25,025 $25,025 ADF&G Budget Narrative: Line 400: Supplies ($25,025) Genetics lab consumables for DNA extraction and stock composition analysis (2018 and 2019 samples): 715 samples @ $35/sample = $25,025 National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Budget NMFS Budget 100 Personnel $0 200 Travel $10,240 300 Contractual $327,140 400 Supplies $3,500 $340,880 NMFS Budget Narrative: Line 200: Travel ($10,240) Jim Murphy and Kris Cieciel will travel to Anchorage to give presentations: Airfare: 2 Juneau-Anchorage roundtrip tickets @ $400/ticket = $800 Taxi ground transportation: 3 days @ $50/day x 2 people = $300 Per diem: 3 days @ $190/day x 2 people = $1,140 Jim Murphy, Kris Cieciel, and Fletcher Sewall will travel to Dutch Harbor for the NBS survey in September 2019: Airfare: 3 Juneau-Dutch Harbor roundtrip tickets @ $1,500/ticket = $4,500 Ground transportation: 4 days @ $100/day x 2 people = $800 Per diem: 4 days @ $225/day x 3 people = $2,700 Line 300: Contractual ($327,140) Contracted ship time for the NBS survey in 2019: 25 days @ $12,000/day = $300,000 2% administrative fee on contracts over $150,000: $300,000 x.02 = $6,000 Chinook energetic sampling: 40 samples @ $75/sample = $3,000 Trawl maintenance: 16 hours @ $70/hour = $1,120 Trawl maintenance boom truck: 1 day @ $400/day = $400 Warehouse forklift and loader charges: 16 hours @ $70/hour = $1,120 Shipping (air cargo): $2,000 Shipping (container return charges): $5,000 CTD processing: 50 casts @ $70/cast = $3,500 Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 Page 6 of 9

SBE 39 CTD calibration: 2 CTD calibrations @ $500/calibration = $1,000 SBE 9-11 CTD calibration: $4,000 Line 400: Supplies ($3,500) Fish collection supplies (e.g., bags, coolers, scalpels): $1,000 Survey supplies (e.g., office supplies, markers, pencils): $1,500 Laboratory analysis supplies (e.g., bomb calorimetry) = $1,000 APU Budget APU Budget 100 Personnel $3,000 200 Travel $0 300 Contractual $9,660 400 Supplies $1,000 Subtotal $13,660 600 Indirect $1,366 $15,026 APU Budget Narrative: Line 100: Personnel: ($3,000) Student technician for nutritional and condition laboratory analysis: 200 hours @ $15/hour = $3,000 Line 300: Contractual ($9,660) δ 13 C and δ 15 N analysis: 7 tissues/fish @ $9.20/tissue * 150 fish) = $9,660 Line 400: Supplies ($1,000) Sample preparation supplies (e.g., kimwipes, ethanol, vials, epindorf tubes): $1,000 Line 600: Indirect ($1,366) APU will utilize the de minimis indirect rate of 10% as described in 2 CFR 200. XI. Match Budget Summary Match Budget 100 Personnel $116,835 200 Travel $5,991 300 Contractual $0 400 Supplies $10,500 Subtotal $133,326 $133,326 Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 Page 7 of 9

The following entities will provide match: ADF&G: $97,874 APU: $35,452 ADF&G Match Budget ADF&G Match Budget 100 Personnel $84,913 200 Travel $2,461 300 Contractual $0 400 Supplies $10,500 $97,874 ADF&G Match Budget Narrative: Line 100: Personnel ($84,913) The State of Alaska salary calculator was used for all salary estimates. Kathrine Howard, Fishery Scientist, will coordinate all ADF&G participation in the project, conduct data analysis, develop forecasts, write reports, and develop and deliver presentations to various stakeholder groups: 2 months @ $12,463/month = $24,926. Sabrina Garcia, Fishery Biologist II, will participate as a member of the scientific crew on the NBS survey, conduct laboratory work for diet analysis, assist with data management and data upload into the online database, and assist with report writing: 4 months @ $7,993/month = $31,972 + 17 sea duty week days @ $107/day + 8 sea duty weekend days @ $461/day + 25 hazard pay increment days @ $27/day = $38,154. Jen Bell, Fishery Biologist II, will participate as a member of the scientific crew on the NBS survey and assist with field work preparation, logistical support in port, and tissue sample coordination and maintenance: 1 month @ $11,930/month = $11,930 + 17 sea duty weekdays @ $171/day + 8 sea duty weekend days @ $737/day + 25 days hazard pay @ $44/day = $21,833. Line 200: Travel ($2,461) Sabrina Garcia and Jen Bell will travel to Dutch Harbor to embark on the NBS survey in 2019: Airfare: 2 roundtrip tickets @ $880.50/ticket = $1,761 Lodging: 2 nights @ $175/night x 2 people = $700 Line 400: Supplies ($10,500) Genetics lab consumables for DNA extraction and stock composition analysis (2018 and 2019 samples): 300 samples @ $35/sample = $10,500 APU Match Budget APU Match Budget 100 Personnel $31,922 Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 Page 8 of 9

200 Travel $3,530 300 Contractual $0 400 Supplies $0 $35,452 APU Match Budget Narrative: Line 100: Personnel ($31,922) Dr. Brad Harris will co-supervise the stable isotope analyses and graduate and undergraduate student education on the project with Dr. Wolf: 200 hours @ $84.61/hour = $16,922 Dr. Nathan Wolf will work with Dr. Harris to conduct the stable isotope analyses and guide graduate and undergraduate student work on the project: 240 hours @ $62.50/hour = $15,000 Line 200: Travel ($3,530) Two students (one on each leg of the survey, individuals TBD) will assist with sampling on the survey and serve as scientific crew. Students will travel Anchorage to Dutch Harbor or Nome to embark on the NBS survey in 2019: Airfare: 2 tickets @ $1,000/ticket = $2,000 Lodging: 3 nights @ $175/night x 2 people = $1,050 Meals per diem: 4 days @ $60/day x 2 people = $480 Northern Bering Sea Juvenile Chinook Salmon Survey - Phase 2 Page 9 of 9