Anatomy of a Jackpot: Characteristics of Purchasers of Large Jackpot Lottery Tickets The 15 th International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking May 27-31, 2013 Todd Maki & Don Feeney 1
Although not shown on this map, the US Virgin Islands have been selling Powerball tickets since November 2002. Powerball States April 8, 2013 CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA CA MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT ID ID ID ID ID ID ID ID ID LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA AR AR AR AR AR AR AR AR AR OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL VT VT VT VT VT VT VT VT VT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT CT NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NY NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ NJ DE DE DE DE DE DE DE DE DE MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD MD WV WV WV WV WV WV WV WV WV PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA PA NH NH NH NH NH NH NH NH NH MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA MA ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME ME RI RI RI RI RI RI RI RI RI DC DC DC DC DC DC DC DC DC VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA VA NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IN IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL IL MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI MI TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN TN KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY KY GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA GA MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN MN TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA WA ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ND AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ AZ NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO IA IA IA IA IA IA IA IA IA KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO MO NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR OR SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD SD WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI WI 2
Jackpot Run & Survey Design Record breaking Powerball jackpot Started at $40 million on Oct 6, 2012 Rolled 15 times to reach $550 million Nov 28, 2012 MN Sold $25.2 million worth of tickets Sales from all lotteries totaled $1.3 billion Internet Survey 1,000 Minnesota adults In the field Dec 14 to 18 Took, on average, about 10 minutes to complete Representative of the general population (age and gender) Conducted by Ipsos 3
During the jackpot run 95% of MN adults were aware of the very high Powerball jackpots 51% of MN adults reported making a purchase 4
Last time purchasing a Powerball Ticket before Oct. 6th % of MN Adults 10% 26% 20% 12% 15% Within a week Within a month Within 3 months Within 12 months Over 12 months ago Never 17% 5
Type of Powerball Purchase During the Jackpot Run % of MN Adults 49% 40% Individual Purchase (only) Individual & Group Group Purchase (only) Did not purchase a ticket 6% 5% Sources: Internet Survey (Ipsos), December 14-18, 2012 6
8.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.6% 8.7% 8.8% 10.6% 10.2% 11.1% 11.0% 12.4% 12.8% 15.1% 19.4% 23.3% 41.9% How many people purchased tickets for each drawing? 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% $40M Oct 6 $50M Oct 10 $60M Oct 13 $70M Oct 17 $80M Oct 20 % of MN Adults $90M Oct 24 $100M Oct 27 $110M Oct 31 $124M Nov 3 $143M Nov 7 $168M $185M $214M $250M $325M $550M Nov 10 Nov 14 Nov 17 Nov 21 Nov 24 Nov 28 7
3.3 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 5.4 How many tickets did they purchase? $6 Average (mean) where # of tickets purchased is >=1 for each drawing $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 $40M Oct 6 $50M Oct 10 $60M Oct 13 $70M Oct 17 $80M Oct 20 $90M $100M $110M $124M $143M $168M $185M $214M $250M $325M $550M Oct 24 Oct 27 Oct 31 Nov 3 Nov 7 Nov 10 Nov 14 Nov 17 Nov 21 Nov 24 Nov 28 8
Number of tickets purchased for the $40 million jackpot Survey respondents 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 47 17 3 2 6 4 1 1 9
Number of tickets purchased for the $550 million jackpot Survey respondents 140 128 120 100 80 93 73 60 40 20 0 37 13 9 5 3 37 1 1 2 3 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10
How does the amount reported compare to actual wagers? Spending estimate $20,000,000 $18,000,000 $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 $40M Oct 6 $50M Oct 10 $60M Oct 13 $70M Oct 17 $80M Oct 20 $90M Oct 24 $100M Oct 27 $110M Oct 31 $124M Nov 3 $143M Nov 7 $168M Nov 10 $185M Nov 14 $214M Nov 17 $250M Nov 21 $325M $550M Nov 24 Nov 28 11
How does the amount reported compare to actual wagers? $20,000,000 $18,000,000 $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 $40M Oct 6 $50M Oct 10 Spending estimate $60M Oct 13 $70M Oct 17 $80M Oct 20 $90M Oct 24 $100M Oct 27 Actual spend in MN $110M Oct 31 $124M Nov 3 $143M Nov 7 $168M Nov 10 $185M Nov 14 $214M Nov 17 $250M Nov 21 $325M $550M Nov 24 Nov 28 12
Demographics of Powerball Players 60% 50% % of MN Adults purchasing tickets during the jackpot run 57% 45% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Male Female 13
Demographics of Powerball Players 60% % of MN Adults purchasing tickets during the jackpot run 55% 56% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 38% 41% 0% 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 14
Demographics of Powerball Players 70% 60% 50% % of MN Adults purchasing tickets during the jackpot run 58% 56% 46% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% HS or less Some college College degree or higher 15
Demographics of Powerball Players 60% 50% 40% % of MN Adults purchasing tickets during the jackpot run 55% 54% 56% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% $35K or less $35K to 75K $75K to $150K $150K or more 16
What s next? Here are Powerball Sales from an even bigger run April 3 to May 18, 2013 $500,000,000 $450,000,000 $400,000,000 $350,000,000 $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $0 $40M Apr 3 $50M Apr 6 $60M Apr 10 $70M Apr 13 $80M Apr 17 $95M Apr 20 $116M Apr 24 $140M Apr 27 $165M May 1 $191M May 4 $222M May 8 $270M $360M $600M May 11May 15May 18 Total sales: $1.2 billion 17
Anatomy of a Jackpot: Characteristics of Purchasers of Large Jackpot Lottery Tickets The 15 th International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking May 27-31, 2013 Todd Maki & Don Feeney 18
Minnesota State Lottery Sales Fiscal Year 2012 Scratch Sales $355 Million 68% $3 Scratch 15.0% $5 Scratch 18.7% $10 Scratch 8.4% $20 Scratch 10.5% $30 Scratch 3.6% Daily 3 2.5% Gopher 5 4.0% Powerball & Powerplay 14.1% Total: $520 Million $2 Scratch 6.9% $1 Scratch 5.0% Raffle 1.2% Progressive Print-N-Play 1.4% Mega Millions & Megaplier 5.0% Hot Lotto & Sizzler 1.8% Northstar Cash 1.9% Lotto Sales $165 Million 32% 19
MN State Lottery Powerball Sales by Fiscal Year Millions $140 $120 Lotto*MN Powerball Power Play $117 $117 $100 $80 $60 $40 $48 $53 $69 $89 $93 $69 $53 $71 $86 $74 $75 $94 $103 $93 $91 $97 $88 $87 $63 $74 $20 $0 FY91 FY93 FY95 FY97 FY99 FY01 FY03 FY05 FY07 FY09 FY11 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 20
21
Game Change: January of 2012 Old Powerball (January, 2009) NEW Powerball (January, 2012) Starting Jackpot $20 Million $40 Million Second Prize $200,000 $1 Million Overall Odds 1:35 1:31 Jackpot Odds 1:195 million 1:175 million Ticket Cost $1 $2 Minimum prize $3 $4 How to Play Pick 5 numbers from 1-53 and 1 Powerball number from 1-39 Pick 5 numbers from 1-53 and 1 Powerball number from 1-35 22
Results after the first year: $1 Powerball $2 Powerball Draws Last 104 First 104 Average Jackpot $75 million $109 million Minimum Jackpot 13 @ $20 million 15 @ $40 million Maximum Jackpot $245 million $550 million Average Draw $577,535 $919,331 Sales (MN) Total Draw Sales $60,063,602 $95,610,446 (MN) Average Draw Sales (All States) $28,187,318 $45,801,844 $2,931,481,090 $4,763,391,806 Total Draw Sales (All States) 23