Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Cheltenham Statistics Statistics are not flawless. All they are really is a recordable and checkable reflection of history. What happens before is not certain to dictate future events but it acts as a guide and a context to look at races in. These statistics do that. I have gone back to 1993 to consider what has happened in each of the Festival races. It s not so much the statistics that are the important thing. It s the interpretation of them that counts.
G E N E R I C S T A T I S T I C S * Cheltenham have had 63 Handicap Chases in recent years * Thats 63 Handicap Chases Not Novice Handicap Chases * I looked at 7 year olds in these handicap chases * None won carrying 11st or more * All 66 horses aged 7 that tried it Failed * Cheltenham has had 147 Handicaps since 1994 * Thats every 154 Handicaps over Hurdle and Chases * I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days * I then looked at those with 13 + runs * There were 12 winners absent 80 + days with 13 + runs * The 12 winners had 1 thing in common * They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race before * Avoid all these horses with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form * Every Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in recent years * I looked at horses aged 5-6-7 * None of these horses won absent more than 7 weeks * All 67 horses aged 5-6-7 that tried failed * Every Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in recent years * I looked at horses from Grade 1 or Grade 2 chases * None of these carried 11st 3lbs or more * Cheltenham has had 147 Handicaps since 1994 * Thats 147 handicaps over hurdles and fences * There were only 8 winners aged 11 or older * Those that had an absence of 32 + days are 0-123
* Every Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in recent years * I looked at horses from a Novice Handicap Chase * All 15 that tried to do this Lost and these were the results * 4 6 8 F PU 10 PU 12 7 9 13 F 13 7 PU * None of the 15 horses Placed in these races * Every Handicap Chase at Cheltenham since 1993 * Thats Not including Novice Handicap Chases * Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races * None of them had just 1 or 2 runs that season * There were only 4 that did it with 1-2-3 runs that year * Samakaan -Kelami -Andreas -An Accordion * All 4 of these had no more than 11st weight * They 16 winners had the following runs that season * 4 3 5 3 4 6 4 3 3 6 4 7 5 7 7 8 * Avoid all 6 and 7 year olds with 1-2 runs this year * Avoid all with 1-2-3 runs that have 11st or more
C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 1.30 William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2m * The Supreme Novice Hurdle is a Grade 1 over 2m * Horses aged 5 or 6 won 33 of the last 36 renewals * Only 1 horse aged 4 has won this race recently * He came from a Graded race and won a champion hurdle * English horses aged 7 or more were 0-30 * English horses aged 5 won 4 renewals * They all had 3-6 career starts * They all had 3 or 4 runs that season * English horses aged 5 with No Grade 1 form won 2 races * English horses aged 5 absent over a month or more are 0-43 * English horses aged 6 won 3 renewals * All 3 came from Class 3 Novice Hurdles * Last Time out winners have a strong record * 14 of the last 16 winners won last time * Horses unplaced last time out were 0-109 * Horses with 1 run have not won since 1991 * Ideally you need 2 + runs over Hurdles before * If it's soft ground you need at least 3 previous races * 9 of the last 19 winners had ran no more than twice over hurdles * The last 2 winners did have 4 previous hurdle starts * Avoid horses with 6 or more runs over hurdles * Horses with 9 + runs were 0-39 * You need to have run in Class 3 or higher last time * I wont bet any horses that ran within 2 weeks * I wont bet any horse stepping down from 19f or more (0-27) * I wont bet any horse that wears headgear * Female horses are fine as long as they pass other trends * Horses from Handicaps have a 0-41 record * English horses with less than 2 wins were 0-111 * You need a run within 80 days * English horses from Graded Novice hurdles are 0-36 * That included last years beaten favourite Cue Card * Every English winner had 2-5 runs this season * English horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-52 * There was one winner absent 115 days * The vast msjority of winners run within 7 weeks * Horses aged 5 or 6 * Must be 1st or a close 2nd last time * At least 2 hurdle races but no more than 6 * Running over 18f or shorter last time * Running within 80 days (Irish) or 50 days (English)
C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 2.05 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase 2m * The Arkle is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 Miles * I would be wary about 5 year olds * They have recently lost their age allowance * Only 1 of the last 22 winners started chasing after new year * That was Well Chief who should have been champion chaser * Last years winner has 17 days absence * Thats unusual and most runners have 24 + days absence * Horses aged 8 or more had a poor run before winning in 2010 * Only Moscow Flyer (Champion Chaser) did it since 1990 * Sizing Europe did repair that record winning aged 8 in 2010 * Be wary of horses that have been 3rd or worse in any Chase * You want a horse 1st 2nd or Fallen in all their Chase Starts * 10 of the last 11 winners were 1st-2nd in all completed chase runs * 23 of the last 25 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out * Horses with 1 Chase start have won but it's unusual * I would want between 2-5 Chase starts * No winner since 1989 ran more than 5 times over Fences * Only 3 winners since had ran 5 times over Fences * 2 of those horses Fell on a previous start anyway * Too many starts often suggests poor jumpers * The previous winners since 1990 had these chase runs * 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 3 5 3 4 2 3 5 5 2 4 4 5 3 * The previous winners since 1990 had these days absence * 17 80 23 37 52 22 52 42 24 44 65 24 34 81 22 44 33 52 33 17 10 * Every winner contested a Grade 1 or 2 race before * Thats either over hurdles or fences * 10 of the last 11 had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race * Northern runners have not won for 22 years * French Bred Horses have a strong record * Horses with High Class hurdling form won many renewals * You want a horse rated at least 140 over hurdles * 3 of the last 5 winners came from 2m 4f or more * 7 of the last 10 had won before at Cheltenham * 2 of the 3 that didnt had never run their before * The last 14 winners were rated between 154 and 162 * Started Chasing before January 1st that year * You want a horse 1st 2nd or Fallen in all Chasing races * 1st or 2nd last time out * Bet a horse with 2-3-4-5 previous Chase starts * Must have Grade 1 or Grade 2 form over hurdles or fences * You want a horse rated at least 140 over hurdles
C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 2.40 JLT Specialty Steeple Chase (A Handicap) 3m 1/2f * The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase * This is a Crucial Grand National trial * Be wary of horses looking laid out for Aintree * Recent winners had 13-40-17-7-26-19-8-12-19-15-14-14 runs * Recent winners had 5-9-3-6-17-9-7-5-9-11-10-10 Chase runs * Recent winners had 1-3-0-4-14-6-7-0-2-7-4-6 H'cap Chase runs * Horses with 3-11 Chase runs or ideally 5-11 Chase runs are best * Horses with less than 7 career starts have poor record * 11 of the last 12 winners ran in 7 or fewer Handicap Chases * Exposed horses with 21 + runs won 5 recent renewals * I would avoid any exposed horse with 1-2 runs this year * Exposed horses aged 7-8-9 had a 0-50 record * All 4 Exposed winners had form in Grade 1-2 races * No exposed horse came from 2m 4f to win * I am against horses with 1 run this season * No seasonal debutants have won in recent years * Only 1 horse aged 6 has won Since 1972 and 1956 * Horses aged 11 have a poor 1-48 record * There hasnt been one placed in the last 13 years * I wouldnt want a horse that comes from 2m 4f or shorter * I would avoid horses out of the handicap * Horses that had 11st 6lbs or more had a 1-39 record * 16 of the last 18 winners had no more than 11st 2lbs * Two winners with 11st 3lbs or more had this in common * Both were exposed with 5 + runs that year * Both had Grade 1 form and ran within 7 weeks * 11 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11st * The one that didn't was 2001 Bensalem with 11st 2lbs * You rarely get a winner rated 150 or more * Since 1997 the highest rated winner was rated 149 * Every past winner has ran in at least Listed Class before * Horses from 2m 6f or less won 3 races * They were all aged at least 9 and had form in Grade 1 class * 15 of the last 18 winners were 1-2-3-4 last time out * Horses aged 6-7-8-9 that were not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-68 * Horses not 1-2-3-4 in the last 7 weeks were just 1-80 * Horses from a Graded Race and not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-57 * Horses from 3m or shorter not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-64 * Horses coming from Grade 1 or Grade 2 Chases last time are 0-28 * I would try and avoid a horse with Headgear * Horses with 6 + runs that season look vulnerable * Horses that ran in the Hennessy havent done well * The following is relevant to English Horses only * 14 of the 15 English winners had 2-5 runs that season * English 7 year olds had a 1-37 record * He was a lightly raced winner of a Listed Class handicap * English 8 year olds had a 6-61 record * They were all unexposed with under 21 career starts * They all had 2-3-4-5 runs that year * They were all 1-2-3 last time * None were beaten more than 12 lengths * 5 carried 10st 9lbs or less and the other 11st 2lbs * English 9 year olds had a 1-57 record * He was an unexposed lightweight with Grade 1 form
* English 10 year olds had a 5-50 record * They were best with 10st 10lbs or less and Graded form * Those from at least 3m and 2-3-4 runs that year were 4-12 * You want a horse with at least 7 National Hunt runs * Concentrate on horses with 3-11 Chase starts * The best record comes from those with 5-11 Chase starts * Horses aged 7-8-9-10 with at least 2 runs that season * Avoid horses from 22f or less unless aged 9 + with Grade 1 form * Your horse should be 1-2-3-4 last time out **************************************************** **************************************************** C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2m 1/2f * The Champion hurdle is a Grade 1 race over 2m * The least experienced winners had 2-3-5 runs * One was in a bad year (Sublimity) * Another was a Group 1 Flat horse (Royal Gait) * I would want more runs than either of those * I'd prefer a horse with at least 9 runs over hurdles * 10 of the last 11 winners raced 3-4-5 times that season * Horses aged 6-7-8 are best * There has been 1 winner aged 5 since 1985 * Horses aged 5 have a 1-50 record and are disadvantaged * Horses aged 9 can win but score badly * There has only been 3 since 1951 * Horses aged 10 or more are automatically ruled out * You must have run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race * Horse that won last time out are best * 22 of the last 24 were last time out winners * Cheltenham form is a Good Advantage. * 14 of the last 17 winners had ran at Cheltenham before * 11 of the 14 winners to do that won at Cheltenham * You do not want a horse from a Novice or 1st season hurdler * No Northern trained horse has won in 25 years * I would want a run within 60 days like all past winners * Horses aged 6-7-8 are best * At least 9 runs over Hurdles * Having 3-4-5 races that season * 22 of the last 24 were last time out winners * Running within 60 days
C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 7f * The Cross Country Chase has 7 past renewals * Ireland have won all 7 of these races * Automatically ignore Horses aged 6 and 7 * They have a terrible record all year round in these races * All 17 horses aged 8 have been beaten too * All 11 horses aged 13 have lost as well * I want a horse thats had cross country experience before * I would want at least two runs this season * The 7 winners were rated 129 140 126 126 150 143 135 * None of the winners had any headgear * The 7 winners had the following absence * 33 9 88 36 37 37 29 * The last 2 winners came from a Hurdle race * 3 of the last 7 winners prepped over hurdles * The 7 winners had the following runs this season * 3 9 3 3 6 4 4 * The 7 winners had the following Chase starts * 17 48 11 15 14 16 30 * The 7 winners had the following Cross Country starts * 4 3 2 5 2 0 2 * You want an Irish horse aged 9-10-11-12 * You need Cross Country experience * Avoid all horses with headgear * You need at least two runs this season
C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 4.40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Race 2m There has only been 4 renewals of this mares hurdle. There are no similar races at any time of year so the only guide we have is just 4 past renewals. * The 4 winners were aged were aged 5-5-6-7 * The 4 winners had 16 14 11 9 National Hunt runs * The 4 winners had 11 9 5 5 Hurdle runs * The winners had 0 0 1 5 runs this season * The 4 winners had all ran in at least grade 2 before * Take horses aged 5-6-7 with 5 + hurdle runs * Only consider horses with Grade 1-2 form **************************************************** **************************************************** C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 5.15 Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase 2m 4 1/2 f * This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f * There have been 7 past renewals of this race * Winners were aged 7 8 5 7 7 7 7 * We have yet to have a 6yo winner (0-19) * Horses aged 8 or more have a 1-44 record * 7 winners had 22 11 8 17 16 6 10 National Hunt Starts * The 7 winners had 4 3 3 4 6 3 5 Chase starts * I would want a horse with between 3 and 6 Chase runs * 7 winners had 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Handicap Chase runs * The last 6 winners were all handicap debutants * All 7 winners had between 3-6 runs that season * Horses aged 8 or more have a 0-36 record * All 7 winners have run in at least Listed Class before * The 7 winners had the following absence * 37 43 40 40 59 38 34 40 days * All 7 winners were either 1st or 2nd last time out * The highest winning weight was 11st 4lbs * Horses rated 140 or more are 0-25 * 6 of 7 winners had between 10st 11lbs and 11st 4lbs * All 7 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out * I wouldnt want a horse with 3 or more Chase wins * All 7 winners had 0-1-2 previous chase wins * 6 of the 7 winners had won over at least 2m 4f before * You want a horse with a hurdle rating of at least 125 * Horses with 4 3 3 4 6 3 5 Chase starts * If thats a 7yo on his handicap debut all the better * Form in Listed or Graded Clas before * 1st or 2nd last time out
C h e l t e n h a m W e d n e s d a y 1.30 National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup 4m * This is a 4m Novice Chase for Amateurs * The last 20 winners had the following races that year * 9-4-5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4 * I Would want at least 4 runs that season * Only 1 of the last 20 winners had under 4 runs that year * That was the 1998 winner who was different class * The Past 20 winners had the following National Hunt runs * By that I mean Hurdles Chases and Bumpers * 23 25 5 14 13 15 15 22 28 26 16 14 5 15 13 13 11 14 8 10 7 8 * The Past 20 winners had the following number of Chases * 9 11 3 3 7 4 4 4 4 12 5 1 4 15 9 13 6 10 4 3 3 8 * I would want a horse that mirrored the above * 6 of the last 9 winners had ran 3-4 times over fences * Exposed Horses with 21 + starts won 4 races * All 4 winners came from Novice Chases * No horse had more than 15 Chase starts * Horses aged 5 have not won for 34 years * Horses aged 6 have a weak 1-49 record * Horses aged 7 and 8 have the best record * Horses aged 9 + dont do as well and are 3-99 * One of those did not start racing until he was 6 yrs * Another one (1997) did not start racing until he was 10 * Only 2 horses aged 9 or more with 13 + runs won * They had 9 and 10 races that season * First Season Chasers dominate this race. * 7 of the last 8 winners were in their first season over fences * 2nd season chasers are fine if they have few runs * Horses that ran within 14 days had a weak 1-66 record * 25 of the last 28 winners were 1-2-3-4 last time out * Last years was 5th but that was in a Grade 1 Chase * You want a horse that has ran in Class 3 or better * Those that had not done that were 1-82 * 15 of the 18 winners had form in Class 2 or better * Those without Class 2 form and 13 + runs were 0-31 * Horses aged 7 without Class 2 form or better were 0-50 * All winners since 2000 had ran in Class 2 or better before * Female horses underperformed 1-34 * Jonjo O Neill won this in 1995-2002-2003-2004 -2007 * JP Mc Manus who 4 races and had 4 placed as well * Horses not 1st or 2nd in any of their last 6 races were 0-34 * The better the track a horse is from the better its chance * 14 of the last 17 winners ran within 7 weeks * You want at least 4 runs that season * I would want between 3 and 13 Chase starts * Avoid horses aged 5 and 6 * First Season Chasers or lightly raced second season chasers win * Go with horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out * You want a horse that has ran in Class 3 or better
C h e l t e n h a m W e d n e s d a y 2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle 2m 5f * This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f * Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate this race * They have won the last 12 renewals * They have won 17 of the last 18 renewals * They have won 35 of the last 40 renewals * They've had the 1st and 2nd in each of the last 11 renewals. * The winner should have been 1st or 2nd last time out * 17 of the last 18 winners did that * 28 of the last 29 winners did that * Avoid horses beaten 2+ lengths last time * Avoid horses coming from Novice Hurdles in Class 4 or less * Over 117 have tried and none have won * 6 of the last 7 winners came from Graded Class * 12 of the last 14 winners ran in Grade 1-2 class * I'd prefer to have had at least 3 previous hurdle runs * 21 of the last 26 winners had 3 + hurdle runs * Last years winner did have only two runs though * Two of the last 4 winners did have under 3 hurdle starts * No 5 year old has won this with under 3 runs * National Hunt Breds excel in this rather than Flat Breds * Horses with Bumper form are better than those with Flat Form * 5 English winners came from normal Novice Hurdles * Those without a previous race in Graded class were 1-86 * English winners had either 1-2-3 runs or 7 + runs * English horses with 4-5-6 career runs were 0-107 * That could be a statistical blip but it's worth considering * English horses without Graded Form were 1-117 * 8 of the last 10 were 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle runs * 10 of the last 11 winners won at least half their hurdle runs * Most past winners had won over 2m 4f or more before * 9 of the last 11 winers had managed that * Almost all past winners had raced in January or Febuary * All of them had raced since December 26th that season * All 4 horses from handicaps lost * The last 4 winners came from 2 mile races * I dont have a problem with any distance last time out * Only consider Horses aged 5 and 6 * Finishing 1st or 2nd last time or beaten under 2 lengths * Avoid horses from Novice Hurdles in Class 4-5-6-7 * Look for horses winning at least half their hurdle runs * Your horse must have run since December 26th
C h e l t e n h a m W e d n e s d a y 2.40 RSA Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f * National Hunt Bred Stayers have the best record * Flat Bred speed horses should be opposed. * None of the last 11 winners ran on the flat * Jumping Ability is important as it is such a gruelling test * The last 10 winners had the following Hurdle + Chase runs * 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9 * The last 12 winners had the following Chase starts * 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4 * You want around 9-20 runs in all NH starts * All recent winners had at least 3 runs in Chases * I'd want at least 3 or more runs this season * Only 1 of the last 16 winners had under 3 runs that year * That was the Top Class Florida Pearl in 1998 * Every winner since 1991 ran within 53 days * Horses aged 7-8 have the best records * 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or 8 * Horses aged 5 can win as long as they pass other stats * I'd oppose them as the weight allowance has been cut * I'd oppose 6 year olds unless there were very good reasons * Only 2 won since 1978 and one came in a small field with fallers * The only 9 year old winners were 1992-1986 - 1948 * Horses aged 7 have dominated in recent years. * They've won the last 5 and 10 of the last 12 renewals * 8 Year olds are by far the second best age group in this race. * It is important to be 1st or 2nd last time out * 33 of the last 36 winners either won their last race or were 2nd * Handicap Form is respected as a couple have won * I would oppose horses from 2m 4f or shorter * Your horse Must have run over at least 2m5f last time out * No Horse has won this race coming from a Hurdle * None of the last 10 winners ran on the flat * I'd want between 8 and 18 hurdle and chase runs combined * I'd want 3-8 previous Chase starts but ideally 3-4-5 runs * I'd want at least 3 or more runs this season * Horses aged 7-8 have the best records * Horses aged 7 are best * 1st or 2nd last time out * Coming from 2m 5f or more last time * You want a horse running within 53 days
C h e l t e n h a m W e d n e s d a y 3.20 Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase 2m * This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2m * It's very unsual for a big priced shock in this race * Horses aged 7-10 are best * Horses aged 11 and older rarely have the Speed to win. * They did win in 2005 and 1977 but are best opposed * The age of recent winners is as follows * 9-9-6-5-6-8-11-7-9-8-8-9-10-10-7-8-7-8-8-8-9-8-9 * In 2008 Master Minded became the first ever 5yo winner * He looks a one off though and that age look vulnerable * There has been two recent 6 year olds win * Master Minded was one and I feel is best seen as a one off * The 2007 winner was 6 but the hot favourite fell that year * The last 6 year old to win before that was in 1973 * Horses aged 7-8-9 are more likely to win * Cheltenham Form is important * 20 of the last 26 winners placed at a previous festival * Two that didnt had won quality races here at other times * Another would have placed without a late fall * Coming into the race with a good last run is important * 29 of the last 31 winners were 1-2-3 last time out * The only 2 that were not both fell * Several recent winners had won at further than 2 Miles * I would want a horse rated at least 160 * Avoid horses with 5 or more runs that season * The last few winners had the following prep runs * 3-2-4-3-4-4-4-4-1-4-1-4-2-4 * Experience is a key factor here * Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 8 Chase starts * That was the 1999 winner who had 4 Chase starts * Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts * 13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8. * I'd want a horse that has had at least 8 races over fences * All past winners ran within 95 days * Horses aged 7-10 are best * 20 of the last 26 winners placed at a previous festival * The last 31 winners were 1-2-3 or Fell last time * Avoid horses with 5 or more runs that season * I would want at least 8 Chase starts
C h e l t e n h a m W e d n e s d a y 4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) 2m 5f * The Coral Cup is a 2m5f Handicap * Horses aged 5-6-7 have won 11 of the last 12 renewals * Horses aged 8 or more do win but struggled recently * They are 1-93 in the last 11 years * Horses aged 8 or more with 11st 1lbs or more were 0-30 * Horses that had 21 or more National Hunt starts do win * The better results come from those with fewer runs * Recent winners had the following number of races * 9-3-9-5-32-8-8-25-5-3-9-16-14 * Recent winners had the following number of hurdle runs * 0-9-1-7-5-30-8-8-21-5-0-5-16-14 * Recent winners had the following handicap hurdle runs * 1-2-2-19-1-4-15-2-0-0-8-12 * You must not have ran 7 or more times that season. * The winner of this is usually invariably laid out for the race. * Most winners had 5 or fewer runs that season * I would prefer horses with 3-5 runs that season * No English horse has won this with just 1 run this season * 33 Female runners produced just 1 third place in 17 years * English horses absent 7 + weeks have a poor record * The only one was a very lightly raced horse * I would reject 7lbs and 5lbs claimers * Be sceptical about horses that finished runner up last time out * Horses that were 2nd last time out had a 0-72 record in this race. * There are sound reasons why this trend has worked * 167 of the 18 winners won at least one of their last 6 races. * 14 of the 18 winners had won that season * I would oppose horses from Novice Handicap Hurdles * I would be wary of betting Novice Hurdlers * Only 1 past winner did that and he had Grade 1 form * Course winners have a 1-80 record in this race * Horses with 11st 1lbs + have won 4 of the last 17 races * They all had under 21 career starts though * The high weighted winners tended to be lighter races * English horses with 11st 1lbs or more are 0-86 * Avoid horses rated 129 or lower * The Pierse Hurdle is a good trial * The last 4 winners and 6 of the last 7 won last time out * Horses with 3-9 National Hunt runs won 9 of the last 11 races * Horses aged 5-6-7 have won 11 of the last 12 renewals * You ideally want 5 or fewer runs that season but no more than 7 * I would prefer horses with 3-5 runs that season * English horses absent 7 + weeks have a poor record * 167 of the 18 winners won at least one of their last 6 races. * Be wary of betting Novice Hurdlers without Graded * Dont bet horses with 21 + NH runs and more than 11st * English horses with 11st 1lbs or more are 0-86
C h e l t e n h a m W e d n e s d a y 4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f * This is a 4 year old Novice Handicap Hurdle * Cheltenham has had only 7 renewals of this race * There's no Listed or Graded races elsewhere in March * The 7 winners had 3-3-3-3-5-3-5 previous hurdle races * None had under 3 career runs * Clearly horses with 3 runs have the best record * The more times over 5 runs the less a horse's chance * English Horses with form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 before are 0-38 * Not a safe stat as last years 2nd had that profile * Every past winner ran within 43 days * I'd respect all French Bred horse * 4 of the last 5 winners won last time * Two of these had penalties * The other was beaten in a Grade 2 race (2011) * I'd not bet a horse that dropped in trip from 19f * The 7 winners included 3 female horses * Both ran within 3 weeks and fillies doing that were 3-6 * Fillies running within 3 weeks starting under 14/1 are 3-3 * Clearly horses with 3 runs have the best record * I'd not bet a horse that dropped in trip from 19f * Fillies running within 3 weeks starting under 14/1 are 3-3
C h e l t e n h a m W e d n e s d a y 5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) * The Champion Bumper is a Grade 1 Flat race * Ireland usually wins this race * They lead 14-5 in the last 19 years * England have won the last two renewals * Willie Mullins won this in 1996-1997- 1998-2000 -2005-2008. * English trained 6 year olds have a 0-75 record * All 5 English winners were Male aged 4 or 5 * 4 came from a Grade 1 track last time out. * Horses that won last time out have dominated this race. * They have won the last 8 renewals * They have been responsible for 17 of the last 19 winners. * I'd oppose horses that ran within the previous fortnight * The last 8 winners of this race had 2-1-3-1-3-4-3-3-4 previous races * 6 of the last 9 winners had at least 3 Bumper races * Horses aged 4 have the weakest strike rate * They are just 3-79 in the last 16 years * The vast majority of winners were Irish bred horses. * Big Field Form looks quite important. * The last 15 winners had won in fields of the following * 16-13-14-21-16-24-15-27-28-24-17-19-20-22-17 runners. * You want a horse trained to peak that day * Not one already tested against the best * Stay with a professional jockey * Dont worry at all about long absences * Horses without a run that callender year are fine * Horses aged 4 have the weakest strike rate * English trained 6 year olds have a 0-75 record * Horses that won last time out have dominated this race. * The last 15 winners won in fields of at least 13 runners
C h e l t e n h a m T h u r s d a y 1.30 Jewson Novices' Steeple Chase 2m 5f * This race only has a 1 year history * It's only the 2nd ever Graded Chase in March over 2m 4f Last years winner was an Irish trained 7 year old. He had 3 Novice Chase starts the last two in Grade 1 races. He came second last time 53 days ago in that Grade 1 Novice Chase. He had 11 previous hurdle runs including at the Cheltenham festival before. He came there as a 146 rated Chaser from the Leopardstown Arkle Novice Chase over 2m 1f. Not a lot more I can say about the only race run like it so far.
C h e l t e n h a m T h u r s d a y 2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) 3m * This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle * The Distance Changed in 2005 from 3m 1f 110yds to 3m * The last 19 winners had the following profile * The last 19 winners had the following National Hunt runs * 40 31 9 11 37 9 40 7 11 15 8 20 21 20 6 14 20 21 9 * The last 19 winners had the following runs in Handicaps * 21-13 2 4 18 2 32 2 2 12 4 2 5 13 2 8 6 7 2 * The last 19 winners had the following runs in Hurdle races * 29-22 9 9 25 6 25 7 9 15 9 7 11 20 5 14 77 13 8 * The last 19 winners had the following runs in Chase races * 6 5 0 0 13 0 15 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 6 * Exposed horses with 21 + runs have now won 4 of the last 7 * I'd still be interested in the unexposed horses * Horses with between 6-20 runs have won many renewals * 13 of the last 19 winners had ran in fewer than 9 handicaps. * The Winners in these years had just 2 handicap hurdle runs * 2009-2005 -2003-2002 - 1998-1995 -1991 * Strongly consider runners with 2-8 handicap hurdle runs * Strongly consider runners with 2 handicap hurdle runs. * The least experienced hurdler had 5 runs (1995) * I looked at how many runs this season a horse had * The last few winners had 6 4 7 5 3 5 7 5 1 3 7 4 runs * I would want 4 or more runs this year unless lightly raced * 9 of the last 12 winners had 4 + runs this year * The 3 that did not all had 11 or fewer National Hunt runs * Therefore insist of 4 + runs unless they have under 11 runs * English horses with 1-2 runs that season have a 1-61 record * I would avoid 5 Year olds * All 41 Horses aged 5 lost in this race since 1991. * Only one 5 year old won in the 37 year history of this race. * Horses aged 6-7-8-9 are best * Before last year all 46 horses aged 10 or more lost * Last year there was a 10yo winner who also won it as a 9yo * I would still be sceptical about horses aged 10 + * Horses that ran within 15 days have a 0-39 record * English 6 year olds won 4 renewals * They were all 1-2-3 last time and had 11st 2lbs or less * They were all unexposed males with 7-20 runs * English 7 year olds won 3 renewals * They all had 5-12 career starts * They all had 3 + runs that season * They all won last time within 7 weeks * English 8 year olds won 2 renewals * Both were lightly raced with 3-4 runs that year * Both had 10st 10lbs or less * English 9 year olds won 4 renewals * They had 3 + runs this year and no more than 11st 2lbs * Female horses are 1-32 in this race * Not important to be 1-2-3-4 last time * Several winners came nowhere on their previous start. * 13 English winners include 9 last time out winners * The worst record is horses that came 2nd last time out. * English horses 2nd last time were 0-54 * English horses 2nd-3rd-4th last time out struggled * Since 1992 they had a poor 1-130 record * Course winners had a 1-77 record
* Horses that were out of the handicap have a 1-83 record. * Several winners were bred by Classiclly bred Flat sires * English horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 1-58 * There were 3 winners with 11st 3lbs or more since 1992 * They all came from Listed or Graded Handicaps * They were all lightly raced and aged 7-7 - 9 * 13 of the last 17 winners had won over at least 3 miles * All recent winners ran within 61 days * I'd want 4 + runs this season unless they have under 11 runs * I would avoid 5 Year olds * Horses aged 6-7-8-9 are best * English horses 2nd-3rd-4th last time out should be opposed * All recent winners ran within 61 days **************************************************** **************************************************** C h e l t e n h a m T h u r s d a y 2.40 Ryanair Chase 2m 5f * This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2m 5f * There are only 7 renewals of this race * It replaced the old Cathcart Chase * That was restricted to novices and second season chasers * I would want at least 5 chase starts * The 7 winners had 22-17-5-17-7-27-11 chase starts * All 7 winners has between 2-3-4 runs that season * They were aged 10-9-6-8-9-10-10 * I would prefer older horses given the choice * 6 of the 7 winners had Grade 1 form * None were absent more than 76 days * There were 5 past winners running well last time * They finsihed with 12 lengths of the winner last time * There were 2 winners beaten much further last time * Both of these were beaten miles in the King George * Dont rule out horses from Kemptons King George * The race was upgraded to Grade 1 in 2008 * All 4 winners since than had ran in the King George * Every winner started 14/1 or shorter * Running well in their Penultimate race is a good sign * All 7 winners came from a Graded race * No past winner came from a Novice race * They all had between 5 and 11 career wins * Irish horses have a 0-15 record * All 7 winners were course winners (Others 0-23) * So were 6 runner ups and the other was festival placed * The lowest rated winner was 152 * I would want at least 5 chase starts * All 7 winners has between 2-3-4 runs that season * All 7 winners came from a Graded race * Dont rule out horses from Kemptons King George
C h e l t e n h a m T h u r s d a y 3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle 3m * This is a Grade 1 hurdle over 3 miles * All past winners in recent years were unexposed * They all had under 21 career runs in hurdles + bumpers * Thats ignoring French Form * Inglis Drever won this on his 20th start * Big Bucks won this on his 10th 14th and 18th race * This year will be his 23rd race and he will fail that stat * If I oppose him it will down to the price and not that stat * Exposed horses were 0-50 since 1992 * All winners had ran at least 6 times before over Hurdles. * Bacchanal (2000) won this with 6 previous races * Horses with 6 + races this season were 0-30 * They struggled in all Championship races at the Festival * Horses with 2-3-4 runs this season had the best record * This race has never been won by a 5 year old before. * 5 year olds have a 0-19 record in this race since 1992 * Horses aged 9 or more have a 1-59 record since 1992 * That was Inglis Drever who has twice won the race * The last Horse to win from this age group was 1988. * I certainly couldnt bet horses aged 10 or more. * None that age won a Championship Hurdle since 1986 * The last 12 winners were 1st or 2nd last time * 16 of the 18 winners were 1st 2nd or 3rd last time * The last 23 winners were all 1-2-3-4 last time out * All 16 horses that came from a Novice race lost * The last 19 winners of this race all ran in a Grade 1 before * You need a horse that had placed 1-2-3-4-5 in a Grade 1 * The last 19 winners had all achieved that before * Only 2 winners came from 2m 4f or shorter * They were both 6 year olds that had Grade 1 form * They both had 9-12 starts and 3-4 runs that season * They both came from Grade 2 Hurdles in the past month * All winners ran at least 6 times before over Hurdles. * I would want under 6 runs this season * This race has never been won by a 5 year old before. * Horses aged 10 or more should be opposed * The last 12 winners were 1st or 2nd last time * Avoid horses from 20f or shorter unless matching my stats
C h e l t e n h a m T h u r s d a y 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f * This is a Handicap Chase over 2m 4f 110yds * It was Formerly known as the Mildmay of Flete * This is a race where shocks are common * Only 1 favourite has won this race in 28 years * The last 11 winners had the following SP's * 25/1 18/1 33/1 66/1 12/1 14/1 25/1 12/1 16/1 25/1 * England has dominated this race winning every renewal * The last Irish winners were 1982 and 1951 * All 37 Irish horses were beaten in this race since 1992 * 17 of the last 18 winners were placed 1-2-3-4-5 last time * 16 of the last 18 winners has at least 3 runs that season * The 2 winners that didnt have that were aged 9 and 10 * Both had Grade 1 form in the past and were exposed * Both had 10st 9lbs as well * The 1995-1998-2004-2010 winners came from a Novice Chase * They all had 11st or less and * 3 were 1st or 2nd last time the other was 4th * Dont rule out horses having their 1st season in Chases * Majadou (1999) was a 1st season Novice with 4 Chase runs * Kadi (1995) was a 1st season chaser with 7 Chase runs * Great Endeavour (2010) also did it with 3 Chase runs * 16 of the last 18 winners had 13 + runs over hurdles/fences * The first 4 in 2011 had 19, 22, 4 and 20 Career starts * The first 4 in 2010 had 8, 13, 22 and 79 Career starts * The first 4 in 2009 had 16, 12, 15 and 28 Career starts * The first 4 in 2008 had 60, 5, 23 and 9 Career starts * The first 4 in 2007 had 18, 16, 25 and 29 Career starts * The first 4 in 2006 had 22, 26, 13 and 14 Career starts * The first 4 in 2005 had 13, 39, 28 and 10 Career starts * The first 4 in 2004 had 25, 19, 23 and 15 Career starts * The first 4 in 2003 had 25, 18, 18 and 38 Career starts * The first 4 in 2002 had 28, 23, 29 and 17 Career starts * The first 4 in 2000 had 19, 19, 19 and 25 Career starts * 12 of the last 13 winners had no more than 16 Chase stars * Avoid horses running within 15 days unless from Cheltenham * Only the 66/1 winner in 2008 has done that * 15 of the 18 winners won with an absence of 16-47 days. * There were 3 winners from Listed or Graded races * They had 3-6-7 runs that season * They were aged 6-11-11 * They all ran in the last Month and had 11st 7lbs or less * Horses that carried 11st 8lbs or more are 0-40 * 22 of the 24 winners were rated no higher than 141 * 15 of the last 18 winners carried 11st or less * French Breds won 6 of the last 13 renewals * 18 of the last 20 winners had ran at the festival before * Recent results show any age can win this race * Recent winners have been aged 10-6-8-11-8-8-6-7-10-9-9-5 * Paul Nicholls has a 0-21 record in the race * No past winner came from hurdles (0-18) * Avoid horses that ran in the Paddy Power Gold cup * Avoid horses that ran in the Boylesports Gold cup * Horses from 18f or shorter won just 2 races * 7 year olds have the weakest record * Horses aged 7 have a 1-42 record since 1992 * That sole winner had just 10st and had Grade 1 form
* Horses aged 8 won 4 renewals * None won absent 7 or more weeks (0-24) * They all came from Class 2-Class 3 handicap chases * They all had 11st 3lbs or less * They all had 3 + runs that season * Expect an English winner at a big price * 17 of the last 18 winners were placed 1-2-3-4-5 last time * 16 of the last 18 winners has at least 3 runs that season * 16 of the last 18 winners had 13 + runs over hurdles/fences * Horses that carried 11st 8lbs or more are 0-40 * 15 of the last 18 winners carried 11st or less * 18 of the last 20 winners had ran at the festival before * 7 year olds have the weakest record
C h e l t e n h a m T h u r s d a y 4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1 1/2f * The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs * English horses dominate winning the last 28 renewals * Irish horses are 0-38 in recent years * I looked at exposed horses in this race and found 6 winners * I categorise these as 21 or more National Hunt starts * All exposed winners of this had at least 4 runs that season * Those with 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-56 * Those that were 1-2-3-4 last time were just 1-69 * Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time struggled * No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st * Horses aged 7-8-9-10 have won the last 18 renewals * The last 6 year old winner was in 1971 * Horses aged 6 in the race are 0-19 since 1993 * Only 4 of the last 31 winners were aged 7 or less * Horses aged 7 won two renewals since 1993 * Both had 5 + runs that season and ran within a month * Both 7yo winners came down in trip from 26f or more * Both 7yo winners had 10st 11lbs or less * No horse aged 10 or more had under 4 runs that season * Older horses aged 11 or more are 0-62 * Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled * They had a poor 1-77 record in recent years * Female Horses have a 0-25 record in recent years * Avoid Horses from a Novice race * All 42 that tried failed in recent years * Many "Lightweights" and "Highweights" have won * Horses with 11st 8lbs or more were 3-49 * All 3 were unexposed with 4-5 runs that season * The previous winners had the following Chase runs * 6-10-10-7-5-18-2-19-22-5-4-11-20-10-18-8-13-9-11 * The winner with 2 Chase runs had more in France * Several winners had 5-13 Chase runs * I'd be interested in these types if strong elsewhere * Stay with the best jockeys here * 6 of the last 7 winners had no claim * Course winners have a weak 1-91 record in 16 years * Exposed horses need 4 + runs that season * Horses aged 7-8-9-10 have won the last 18 renewals * Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled * Avoid Horses from a Novice race * Several winners had 5-13 Chase runs
C h e l t e n h a m F r i d a y 1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f * The Triumph Hurdle is for 4 year olds over 17f * English Horses have won the last 9 renewals * I would avoid horses with 1 career start unless a Graded race * The 2011 winner had 1 run but it was in a Grade 2 hurdle * The 2010 winner had 1 run but it was in a Grade 2 hurdle * Without Graded form ignore once raced horses * Horses that had 7 + previous races had a 0-32 record. * Strongly consider horses with 1-2 runs and Graded form * Flat Bred runners seem to have the advantage. * 16 of the last 17 winners were Flat Bred * Look for a Flat Bred horse that stayed 12f on the flat * The last 13 winners that ran on the flat had 12f form * Horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-49 * The last 20 winners all ran after January 17th that year * The last 11 winners all ran within 55 days * The Adonis Hurdle winner has won this 6 times recently * Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993, 1994 and 2000 * All 3 fillies won last time out within the past month * Horses that won their last race won 13 of the last 14 * You must have a horse 1st or 2nd last time * Those that were not had a 0-158 record * Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85 * Only Katchit won from 17f and he won a Champion Hurdle * All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost * Horses coming from Class 5 or lower struggled * Those that had 3 or more runs doing that were 0-50 * All 42 horses that came from a Class 2 Hurdle lost * All 86 maidens lost * 14 of the last 17 winners had won twice that season * Colts dont have a great record compared to Geldings * Horses beaten 8 + lengths last time were 0-139 * 16 of the last 17 winners were Flat Bred * Horses that won their last race won 13 of the last 14 * Horses that had 7 + previous races struggled * Strongly consider horses with 1-2 runs and Graded form * The last 20 winners all ran after January 17th that year * Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85 * All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost
C h e l t e n h a m F r i d a y 2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f * The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f * Seasonal debutants have not won this race * Horses with 1 race that season were 0-44 * You want a horse with at least 3 runs that season * Over 100 horses had under 3 runs and only 1 won * That was last year with 2 runs but he also had a flat run * He was also lightly raced as well * 16 of the last 17 winners had at least 3 runs that season * Most of these had 4 and more runs * The last 18 winners had these runs since September * 2 3 4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4 * You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season * The last 18 winners had this number of hurdle runs * 4 14 4 10 7 8 16 7 17 21 8 5 6 26 12 21 25 10 10 17 * 5 of the last 8 winners had under 9 Hurdle runs * You want a Horse that ran within the last 68 days. * Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence * The last 17 winners were absence this many days * 68 55 27 14 34 13 36 32 33 33 13 98 17 44 3 28 16 29 21 52 * All 57 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost * Last time out finishing position doesnt matter much * Horses aged 5 or 6 have the best record * 5 and 6 year olds won 40 of the last 50 renewals * Horses aged 5 have won 5 of the last 8 renewals * No horse aged 10 or older have won since 1959 * English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159 * Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-97 * I wouldnt bet a horse aged 7 or more with under 5 runs * 17 of the last 19 winners ran in at least 2 handicaps before * Both high and low weighted winners have won * I'd oppose the very high weighted horses * Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-19 * The Betfair Hurdle or MCR hurdle are strong trials * You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season * You want a Horse that ran within the last 68 days. * 5 and 6 year olds won 40 of the last 50 renewals
C h e l t e n h a m F r i d a y 2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle 3m * This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3 Miles * There are just 7 renewals of this race * The 5 winners were aged 6-7-6-7-6-7-5 * Horses aged 8 or more are 0-14 * I would prefer horses aged 6 or 7 * The 7 winners were 1 4 2 2 1 1 2 on their previous starts * The 6 winners had 5-15-6-8-8-5-4 hurdle and bumper runs * They had the following number of hurdle starts * 3 13 4 3 4 3 4 * I would ideally want 3 or 4 hurdle runs but at least 3 * The 7 winners had been absent this following days * 48 33 47 61 48 97 27 * All 7 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time * 3 of the 7 winners won a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time * 5 of the 7 winners had ran at the distance before * 6 of the 7 winners had ran at the track before * The 7 winners had 3-9-4-3-4-3-5 runs that season * Horses with 3 or 4 hurdle starts are interesting * You want a horse aged 5-6-7 who ran well last time * All 7 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time * 6 of the 7 winners had ran at the track before * Every winner had at least 3 runs this season
C h e l t e n h a m F r i d a y 3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f * The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y * 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts * The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009 * The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases * 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 * Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled * Ignoring French runs they had a 0-85 record * You are best with an improving lightly raced horse * Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record. * They've won 16 of the last 18 Cheltenham Gold Cups. * Horses aged 10 do not have a great record * Horses aged 10 have a 1-90 record since 1992 * Horses aged 11 and over haven't won since 1969 * All 36 that ran in the last 18 years lost. * Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season. * I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season * Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine * Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race. * This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form. * 12 of the last 14 winners placed at a previous Festival. * Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out * The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1 * Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races. * A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race * Horses from a Grade 1 - Grade 2 chase last time are best * Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best * Every winner since 1992 had managed that * A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974 * Two recent winners came from Handicaps * Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before * No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat * 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts * Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled * Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record * Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season * Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out
C h e l t e n h a m F r i d a y 4.00 Christie's Foxhunter Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f * The Foxhunters is a Hunter Chase * Foxhunters Chase and England lead 15-3 since 1992 * Horses aged 11 or more were 2-138 both winners a shock * Its a race more often than not gone to younger horses. * You can't rule out any age as a 13yo won in 2004 * 6 recent winners ran within the last 15 days * Two of these won at Newbury and 4 at Warwick. * Anything that wins very recently is significant * I would either want a long absence or very short one * We haven't yet had a female winner of this race * The last 14 winners had the following finishing positions * W W W W L UR W 2 W 3 W W W W W * The majority have won their latest starts * Or they would have probably won when falling * 20 of the last 24 winners won on their previous start * Horses that came from a Handicap Chase are 1-37 * 20 of the last 22 were brought up via Hunters or Points * All 25 horses from a Novice or Maiden Hunter Chase Lost * 38 horses lined up having previously ran in a Grade 1 race. * None of the 38 won this race * Its better to bet a horse that has run under rules before * Horses from 2m 4f or shorter struggled before last year * Last years winner did that so a watching brief advised * The Irish Racing Post Champion Hunters Chase is a hot trial * Run last May at Punchestown a run there is significant * Avoid horses aged 11 or more * 20 of the last 24 winners won on their previous start * Avoid horses from Handicaps * 20 of the last 22 were brought up via Hunters or Points * All 25 horses from a Novice or Maiden Hunter Chase Lost * Avoid all horses that have Grade 1 form before