Indian Ocean warming its extent, and impact on the monsoon and marine productivity

Indian Ocean warming its extent, and impact on the monsoon and marine productivity RIO WIO Indian Ocean warming: o Western Indian Ocean experienced strong, monotonous warming during the last century o Links to asymmetry and skewness in ENSO forcing o Largest in-phase contributor to global SST warming Potential Impacts: o Weakening of the monsoon o Reduction in marine phytoplankton WIO RIO Roxy M. K., K. Ritika, A. Modi, P. Terray, R. Murtugudde, K. Ashok, B. N. Goswami, S. Masson, V. Valsala, P. Swapna, S. Prasanna Kumar and M. Ravichandran Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

Indian Ocean warming - background Basin-wide / Warm-pool warming in recent years Studies note basin-wide warming over Indian Ocean in the last 50 years Suggested cause: Apart from greenhouse warming, Weakening winds causing warming trends Warm SST weakening the winds which in turn warm SST again SST trend during last 50 yrs Warm-pool enlargement in recent years Chambers et al. JGR, 1999; Alory et al. GRL, 2007; Rao et al. Climatic Change, 2012; Swapna et al. Climate Dynamics, 2013

Indian Ocean during the last century western Indian Ocean warmed up to 1.2degC, in 100 yrs (a) SST trend [ C per year], June-Sept mean a) Basin-wide warming over the Indian Ocean with enhanced, significant warming over western Indian Ocean. (b) SST standard deviations [ C], June-Sept mean (c) SST [ C]: WIO vs RIO, June-Sept mean RIO WIO WIO: 50-65 E, 5 S-10 N WIO [CMIP5] RIO: 70-100 E, 20 S-20 N b) The western region has largest interannual variability over Indian Ocean. Warming here might influence monsoon dynamics! c) In early 1900s, the western Indian Ocean was much cooler than the warm-pool. The monotonous warming over west nullifies zonal SST gradient - may influence monsoon dynamics. Mean summer (June-Sept) SST: The historical simulations with CMIP5 models do not reproduce the WIO warming (light pink color), which means that apart from direct radiative forcing due to greenhouse warming, other unaccounted mechanisms might be responsible (eg: ENSO variability) Roxy et al. J.Climate, 2014

SST > 28degC = enhanced convection Precipitation [mm/day] Mean summer (June-Sept) SST: Significant increase in precipitation with respect to higher SSTs. 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 SST [ C] SST-precipitation relationship when the lag is considered Gadgil et al., Nature, 1984; Roxy, Climate Dynamics, 2013

Asymmetry in ENSO forcing Influence of El Niño > La Niña (a) Mean Walker circulation hpa (b) El Nino Composite - Walker circulation anomalies El Niño induce significant easterly anomalies and positive SST anomalies over w.indian Ocean but... La Niña events does not result in significant anomalies over the Indian Ocean (a) Climatological mean SST [ C] hpa (b) El Niño Composite - SST anomalies [ C] (c) La Nina Composite - Walker circulation anomalies (c) La Niña Composite - SST anomalies [ C] hpa

Skewness in El Niño forcing Increase in Frequency and Magnitude of El Niños (a) Correlation: east Pacific SSTa vs Global SSTa, June-Sept mean SST Difference between [1951-2012] and [1901-1950] June-Sept (b) SST anomalies [ C]: east Pacific vs WIO, June-Sept mean r = 0.6 east Pacific WIO 1 S.D. = 0.77 C (c) Skewness [east Pacific] and trend [WIO]: SST anomalies, June-Sept mean east Pacific WIO Indian Ocean warming (above) associated with positive skewness over east Pacific (below) (a) SST Skewness [1901-1950] Detrended anomalies show increase in frequency and strength of El Niños. The warm events over Indian Ocean also has increased. Occasionally, they cross the El Niño criteria (1 S.D. = 0.77 degc). (b) SST Skewness [1951-2012]

Indian Ocean warms without greenhouse gas forcing Simulations (with-without) ENSO variability shows IO warming Power spectrum SST Difference between [ENSOvar] and [noensovar] June-Sept Model simulations using latest SINTEX coupled model with realistic ENSO variability Nino 3.4 SST anomalies spectra Frequency(1/year) Magnitude of warming without greenhouse gas forcing is weak though HadISST (Observations) SINTEX (Model Simulations)

Largest contributor to global warming? Indian Ocean warming in phase with global warming Correlation: Annual global mean SSTa vs annual SSTa

Land-sea contrast decrease in the past century Contradicts model/observations for Northern Hemisphere (a) mean surf.temperature C (b) surf.temperature trends C (112 year -1 ) Though models and observations suggest increase in land-sea contrast over Northern Hemisphere due to global warming, it is different over South Asia/Indian Ocean. (c) Trend in land-sea temperature difference Tsurf [ C] Ttrop [ C] (d) upper troposphere (200 hpa) temperature trends C (65 year -1 ) The decrease in land-sea contrast reflects in tropospheric temperature gradients also. Observations suggest an increase in land-sea contrast over Northern Hemisphere during recent decades Ttrop Tsurf Roxy et al. Nature Communications, 2015, Revised

Warm Indian Ocean, Weak south Asian Monsoon Indian Ocean warming well correlated with weak Precip. (a) & (b) Decreasing trend in precipitation from Pakistan through central India to Bangladesh. Significant over central Indian subcontinent (horse-shoe pattern) (c) & (d) Trend and correlation with western Indian Ocean warming has similar patterns! Correlation of detrended anomalies: Correlation: WIO ERSST vs CRU Precip. [detrended] Islamabad New Delhi

Weakened Monsoon precip/winds due to warming Model simulations with Indian Ocean warming Model simulated warming of WIO SST difference between [CFSv2 WIO ] and [CFSv2 CTL ] Model simulated response to warming Precip. and Winds, DIfference between [CFSv2 WIO ] and [CFSv2 CTL ] mm day -1 (65 year -1 ) Decreasing rainfall over the south Asian subcontinent: horse-shoe pattern in model simulations with increased IO warming 1 m s -1 (65 year -1 )

Weakening local Hadley circulation: Convection enhanced over ocean and suppressed over land Observations: trend in vertical velocity Trend in vertical wind velocity, June-Sept (1948-2012) Pa s -1 (65 year -1 ) Simulations: change in vertical velocity in response to Indian Ocean warming Vertical wind velocity, DIfference between [CFSv2 WIO ] and [CFSv2 CTL ] Pa s -1

Warming Marine Primary Production western Indian Ocean is a highly productive region...

Reduction in Marine Primary Production Chlorophyll trends in observations and simulations Observations: Merged (SeaWiFS, MODIS, and MERIS) 1998 - present Historical Simulations: Best of CMIP5/ MPI-ESM-MR 1950-2005 Chlorophyll trends

Warming stratifies the ocean - and suppresses the mixing of nutrients from the subsurface, reducing chlorophyll Chlorophyll (mg m -3 ) Chlorophyll (mg m -3 ) SST ( C) Chlorophyll (mg m -3 ) Chlorophyll (mg m -3 ) Chlorophyll (mg m -3 ) SST ( C) Chlorophyll (mg m -3 ) Observations (1998-2011) Historical Simulations (1950-2005) (a) Chlorophyll and SST anomalies (b) Chlorophyll and SST anomalies SST-Chl: significant long-term correlation Chlorophyll SST r = - 0.9 SST ( C) Chlorophyll SST r = - 0.7 SST ( C) (c) Chlorophyll and Wind Speed anomalies (d) Chlorophyll and Wind Speed anomalies Wind-Chl: No significant longterm correlation Chlorophyll Wind Speed r = -0.3 Wind Speed (m s -1 ) Chlorophyll Wind Speed r = 0.5 Wind Speed (m s -1 ) (e) SST and Static Stability anomalies (f) SST and Static Stability anomalies Static Stability Enhanced stratification due to increasing SST SST r = 0.75 Static Stability Static Stability SST r = 0.9 Static Stability (g) Chlorophyll and Static Stability anomalies (h) Chlorophyll and Static Stability anomalies Chlorophyll Chlorophyll Stratification highly correlated to the reduction in Chl Static Stability r = - 0.8 Static Stability Static Stability r = - 0.62 Static Stability

Reduced plankton might increase the fish stress Along with the stress from fisheries industries... tuna (yellowfin, bigeye and albacore) Annual catch rates of tuna (N/100 hooks) in the Indian Ocean bigeye tuna bigeye tuna tuna

Indian Ocean warming its extent, and impact on the monsoon and marine productivity Indian Ocean warming: o Western Indian Ocean experienced strong, monotonous warming during last century o Links to asymmetry and skewness in ENSO forcing o Largest in-phase contributor to global SST warming Potential Impacts: o Weakening of the monsoon o Reduction of marine phytoplankton RIO WIO