californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Saturday, March 31, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Why are so many fans revved up about the Gulfstream Pick 6 Mandatory Payout Day, Saturday, March 31, 2018? Well, as you know I personally am not a fan of the Pick 6, because it is usually an expensive bet ($2 per bet) and because there are simply too many possible winning combinations. However, The Gulfstream Pick 6. Called the Rainbow Pick 6, is a $.20 bet, not a $2 bet. This makes a world of difference, obviously with the same budget one can make 10 times as many Pick 6 bets in the case of other Pick 6 arrangements. As to the latter, for example, for simplicity sake let us assume there are eight horses in each of the Pick 6 races in our example. If that is the case, then there are 8 6, or 262,144 possible winning combinations. So under this example if you make one Pick 6 bet, you have a 1 in 262,144 chance of winning, statistically speaking. So let s start off with the traditional Pick 6 format. Let s say the pool on a given day is $1,000 000, including prior day s carryovers. (Why do they even have Pick 6 carryovers? Because it is so darn hard to hit that s why!). The normal track takeout (that s how the track makes money, by virtue of the takeout each race and in each exotic bet pool, not the $2 admission that you pay lol that barely pays the electric bill for the Bud Light sign ) is around 20%. So, the pool subject to distribution to winners is reduced to $800,000 in our example. Now, let s say that you and 999 others have a winning Pick 6 ticket, the winners of all six races, so there are 1000 winners. Each of you will collect $800. If you are the sole winning ticket holder, you win $800,000. In our example, if no one has all six winners (very common) we have the usual carryover, $800,000, for the next Pick 6 pool. And so on until the day someone hits all six winners.
Now here is what is going to happen with the mandatory payout Gulfstream Rainbow Pick 6 on March 31, here is what s different, and here is why many of you are so excited #1 There is no takeout for that day s Pick 6 pool. So, in our example, the entire million would be distributed, if there are 1000 winners, each will receive $1000 instead of $800. If there is one winner, he/she gets the entire million. #2 There is no carryover for that day s Pick 6 pool (but it will contain any carryover from previous days Pick 6 pools). So, you and the other winners can share in the hypothetical $1,000,000 pool even if no one has all six winners diagnosed correctly. In theory, if the most winning horses that anyone has is five, then anyone with five winners will share in the million dollar pool. In theory, I guess, one could win a share in the Pick 6 pool with only four winners, if that is the maximum number of winners in anyone s ticket. (It is hard to imagine that no one would have at least four winners ) These differences are what is sparking excitement for the March 31 Pick 6 at Gulfstream. I hope I explained what I know adequately. It is enough stimulus even for me, as I plan to hit The Borgata Race Book on March 31 and try a few Pick 6 bets myself. Not to the extent that some of you will partake--- I have it on good authority that some of you will be investing 1000 s of dollars for this rare, exciting opportunity. One thing almost for sure--- worldwide bettors will almost certainly make the pool a record setting one. To my knowledge, the current record Gulfstream wagering pool was almost $20 million, set last January for the Pick 6/Rainbow 6. Imagine making a $.20 bet and being the sole winner of $2 million! This Saturday s pool could easily beat that! By the way, some of you are under the impression that my Gulfstream Special Rainbow Six Report is free LOL it isn t. My Special Reports for each of the Triple Crown races is $ 30, as well as Breeders Cup Day s Special Reports. This one is $40, for the simple reason that I will not be able to sell nearly as many reports as I do for the TC and Breeders Cup races. I hope you can understand, and keep mind also that I have to grade and report on five horses in each of six races. Thank you.
SEE THE END OF THIS REPORT FOR THE PRELIMINARY GULFSTREAM ANALYSIS Note: The first post time today is 12:00 pm PDT, 3:00 pm EDT Saturday, March 31, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you.
Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty calendar-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 1 and 2 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Note: Likeable Longshots are not available in this free version of californiawinning.com s selections, because M/L odds were not available at the time of this posting. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! SEE BELOW---
RACE 1: Rick s Dream is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s) as the M?L favorite, as he has hit the board in eleven of thirteen races, mostly at or near race distance ( RD ), he looks very good in this bland field. Coming off a year s vacation, Twirling Tiger gets nice class relief, was almost always a threat prior to his layoff, his recent works suggest that he is ready to rock n roll again. Restless Milton Freewater moves down, invariably hits the board on a dry main track, shows good works and carries one of our best jockeys to boot, will vie: he is racing on short rest and has mixed results in the past doing so. RACE 2: Well-rested Crown the Kitten has the honor of being the M/L favorite, as he hits the board in the vast majority of his grass races, almost always of the route variety, although he is yet to win here, his [dirt] works are very good and today he carries turf master Nakatani, he has a very good shot to have his picture taken post race. Very well-rested Bourbon Soul showed little last time out after a long layoff, but his recent grass works tend to show that he recovered from whatever ailed him, he has a very good jockey aboard and will battle. Well-rested Secreto Primero has won a couple of turf races here, and shares that stat with two other entries, although he has not produced a win in quite some time, since 2016, neither has any other entry, he did hit the board in both races at RD, winning once, and his [dirt] works are presentable. Likeable Longshot: Landwade Lad was a Likeable Longshot last time out, but was scratched, although he has not done much in his two U.S. races, perhaps the third time is the charmer: he moves down class-wise and has a great riding team, including the undersung Joe Talamo, dilly dilly SEE BELOW FOR PRELIMINARY GULFSTREAM MANDATORY RAINBOW SIX PAYOUT ANALYSIS FOR SATURDAY- MORE FREE STUFF! ***** californiawinning.com NOTE: For additional totally free races from today s racing card, the Likeable Longshots, and other free expert handicapping information, go to californiawinning.com and click on Free Daily Selections OR
better yet, why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day less than what the touts charged for their card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, for Today s Full Race card for the mere sum of $2, or, better yet, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment The Rainbow Pick 6 The Gulfstream Park Rainbow Pick 6 ( RP6 ) is very similar to what we are familiar with at our home tracks, mostly Del Mar and Santa Anita. However, instead of the $2 per bet rule we are mostly accustomed to, the minimum bet is a mere $.20, so obviously one on a limited budget can make 10 times as many wagers. The other differences between our home track Pick 6 process and the RP6 is that (i) this RP6 pool will undergo zero takeout, instead of the usual 20% track takeout, so that the entire pool will be split among the winners (or paid to the sole winner), and (ii) the winner(s) of the RP6 need not have all six races assessed correctly, as there is no carryover.. The reason this is a Rainbow Pick 6 is that the carryover from prior days is also treated differently. That is to say, so long as there is no sole winner of Thursday s or Friday s Pick 6, a substantial part of those days pools will be carried over into the RP6 pool Saturday. As of this writing, there is already about $5 million in the RB6 pool for Saturday. Last January, the Gulfstream RP6 pool was an astounding $20 million!!! So, in theory, you could make a $.20 RP6 bet and be the sole winner with just five winners correctly picked, and win a cool $2 million. Let s face it, the Pick 6 bet is a real longshot of a bet. So, so many possible combinations if you take ten horses per race (our average here) over six races. But, Gulfstream makes the RP6 bet far more plausible, reaslistic and worthy by allowing $.20 bets and paying out the full pool to all of those with the correct number of winners, no matter what that number of winners is.
The Quality of the Gulfstream Races in General Gulfstream is in reality an East Coast Santa Anita. As many of you loyal followers may recall, californiawinning.com used to handicap Gulfstream during the Los Al weeks between Del Mar and Santa Anita. Then, the californiawinning.com board decided to limit handicapping to the Del Mar, Los Alamitos, and Santa Anita circuit, due to intense familiarity with trainers, jockeys, and, most important, resident equines. So, don t be surprised to see about eight top-notch jockeys (like Bejarano, Prat, Roman, Desormeaux and Smith, to name just a few), a legendary trainer (a la Baffert), several top trainers (win percentage approaching or at 20%), and high quality equines. Even the non-graded races in our RP6 (the first two) feature high quality horses. One of my theses about handicapping is that the higher the quality of the horse, the more predictable he/she is The Six RP6 Races Races 9-14 All races are route distance (and I hold that longer races are easier to predict too). The first two races are a Maiden Special Weight (Race 1) and an Allowance Optional Claiming ($62,500) (Race 2). After that, we have four graded races, including the final race, The XpressbetFlorida Derby (G I), Race 14, is a qualifier for The Kentucky Derby (only five weeks away) and features Catholic Boy, Promises Fulfilled (a shoe-in (no pun intended) for The Kentucky Derby with 52 points already) and Strike Power. There is very good balance in the races, with three main track races and three turf races. (I don t think their turf course is a plush as those we are accustomed to.) Remember, I have been asked to grade the top five horses in each race, not the usual top three that I do for our home tracks. Funny thing about graded races, longshots often show up, because the public is so intensely focused on the M/L favorites whom they view as invincible (one never knows how that favorite feels on race day). So, let s get to it: here we go---(preliminary, I don t have odds at this time)
RACE 9 Maiden Special Weight, Turf Track, One and one-sixteenth miles Art Collection hit the board in is debut here, a turf route, he marries top trainer and like rider and sports standout works, including four furlongs @ 46 1 here just a week ago, a harbinger of a good race effort. Well-rested Wisely hit the board at one mile on the grass here last time out, with this quintessential East Coast rider aboard, his works, though all of the short variety, are excellent, and Logic finished about a length behind Art Collection when the two dueled here early this month, his works are decent and he will vie. 4 th and 5 th Graded: Mr. Discretionary is one of three horses to have hit the board at race distance ( RD ), and he did so twice in three tries, placing here on the grass in his most recent race, he closes out well and shows good turf works. Sensational Sam has hit the board in two of four turf routes, once here at RD last December, he carries a top rider and could pressure this field. RACE 10 furlongs Allowance Optional Claiming ($62,500), Main Track, seven ***** For the remainder of this analysis go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston to pay the $20 for the full report Thanks very much. Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you.
Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?