Introduction Animal Kingdom ArchArchArch Brilliant Speed Comma To The Top Decisive Moment Derby Kitten Dialed In Master Of Hounds Midnight Interlude Mucho Macho Man Nehro Pants On Fire Santiva Shackleford Silver Medallion Soldat Stay Thirsty Toby s Corner Twice The Appeal Twinspired Uncle Mo Watch Me Go Race Analysis
Thank you for purchasing the interactive Triple Crown E-Book Series. This book contains a pedigree analysis of every horse scheduled to enter the starting gate and a few that are on the waiting list. The Race Analysis will be privately emailed to each purchaser the day after post positions are drawn. This year s Kentucky Derby is an enigma inside of a conundrum. Or is it the other way around? Either way, the majority of the contenders have taken turns beating each other. In a full field where cases can be made for or against certain horses, pedigree is the first step to figuring out whom to keep on your Derby list. It is essential to determine between the horses that will love ten furlongs, those who could finish in the money and the ones that couldn t get the distance with a guided missile strapped around their girth. Pedigree also aides in detecting each horse s optional surface. Last year s Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver had a superior mud pedigree. So did 2009 s hero Mine That Bird and the 2005 winner Giacomo. Some Derby contestants have never competed in a race over the main track. It s essential to know who they are and if they have a fighting chance or should stay on the green. The Triple Crown E-books delve into the pedigrees of every contender with an eye towards handicapping the races. We don t need to know about the fourth dam of the broodmare sire or if the contender is inbred to Northern Dancer in the fifth generation. We do need to know if the sire has produced runners at Classic distances and how many daughters of the distaff sire have offspring that have won at 1 ¼ miles. We also need to know if the sire and broodmare sire are poor, average or superior sires of mud runners and which surface their offspring prefer. The Triple Crown E-books examine every contender s lineage for these facts and present them to the handicapper in a concise manner. Every horse s name links to its profile page at Horse Racing Nation. You can read the latest news concerning the horse, view pedigree and race charts, view race videos and more. We hope you enjoy the Triple Crown E-Books. If you have any difficulty with the books, or have questions or comments, please contact lross@ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com and your email will be answered promptly. Up to 20% of total proceeds will be donated to a horse rescue/rehabilitation farm of the author s discretion.
ANIMAL KINGDOM Pedigree: Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux Dalicia, by Acatenango) Animal Kingdom's sire, damsire Analysis and second damsire were all Turf Champions. He blendspedigree: the speed of his sire with a hardy stamina oriented German female family. Animal Kingdom's sire Leroidesanimaux set three track records and was voted 2005 Champion Turf Male. As one would imagine, the majority of his offspring are at their best over turf and synthetic surfaces; however, Leroidesanimaux gets the odd stakes winner over the dirt. Two such winners are the La Canada heroine Always A Princess, and recent Tampa Derby place finisher Crimson Knight. Both receive strong dirt influences from their female families. Animal Kingdom s damsire Acatenango was one of the best Germ-bred horses of the last century. The three-time Horse of the Year competed at the highest level, losing only twice in 17 stakes races and was successful from 1 3/16 to 1 ½ miles. Acatenango sired a dynasty in the breeding shed, topping the sire lists in 1993, 1995, 1997, and 1999. His daughters produce stamina-oriented offspring and besides Animal Kingdom, Acatenango is the damsire of the Beverly D Stakes (G-1) heroine E Claire De Lune. Animal Kingdom s female family is studded with a long line of German graded stakes winners. His dam Dalicia raced 23 times, winning three contests, including a Group 3 race. Animal Kingdom descends from the Bruce Lowe Distaff family number 1-h, which is found mostly throughout Europe, but this family did produce High Gun, the 1954 Belmont Stakes winner. Surface: Turf breeding is prevalent in Animal Kingdom's lineage. The closest instance of dirt attributes can be found in the fourth generation of his pedigree. Animal Kingdom will making his first attempt over dirt in the Kentucky Derby. His sire Leroidesanimaux hasn t produced enough dirt runners to say whether he is effective as a mud sire; however, his daughter Always a Princess and a recent maiden winner have won over a sloppy track. Analysis: Animal Kingdom has the stamina to be competitive in the Kentucky Derby, but his shortcoming is a solid turf pedigree. Since the Vinery Spiral (previously known as Lanes End Stakes) has been contested on Polytrack, only one winner, Hard Spun, has finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby. Other winners of the Spiral were unplaced in the Derby, but continued on to win graded stakes events over the turf. Often, horses with predominately turf pedigrees will show an affinity for mud. Last year, Paddy O Prado finished third in the muddy Derby, but had no response over a fast track in the Preakness or Breeders Cup Classic. Animal Kingdom may have a tough task in the Kentucky Derby, but could be helped immensely by a wet track. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
ARCHARCHARCH Pedigree: ArchArchArch (Arch Woodman s Dancer, by Woodman) ArchArchArch has a hearty, Analysis stamina-oriented pedigree well suited for all three Triple Crown Pedigree: races. His sire Arch is quickly becoming popular due to his ability to pass Classic attributes to his progeny. The majority of his offspring that are successful at 1 ¼ miles or farther are turf horses; However, he produced Alabama Stakes (G-1) heroine Pine Island and his son Blame won a thrilling renewal of the Breeders Cup Classic last year. Archarcharch s damsire, Woodman, was the 1985 Champion two year old colt in Ireland. At stud, Woodman became a solid sire, getting European Champion Filly Bosra Sham, Canadian Champion Woodcarver, dual Classic winner Hansel and Breeder s Cup Juvenile/Preakness hero Timber County. As a broodmare sire, Woodman is a fixture on the National Broodmare Sire List and currently stands #6. His daughters produce long-winded runners. Archarcharch s dam Woodman's Dancer, is a consistent broodmare. Besides the Arkansas Derby winner, she produced his half brother, turf sprint stakes winner Run Sully Run (by Cherokee Run), plus two other winners. Woodman s Dancer is a half sister to two listed stakes winners, Seattle Pattern and Total Bull. Archarcharch is a son of the Lowe Female Family number 8. This family s sole Classic winner is 1910 Preakness hero Layminister. Surface: ArchArchArch was fourth in the Smarty Jones over a track labeled as good, but his placing may not have been due to track surface. His sire Arch is a superior sire (20%) of off track runners and Woodman s offspring handle mud proficiently. ArchArchArch should handle a muddy track. Analysis: ArchArchArch has the kind of pedigree one likes to see in a Derby contestant. He is bred for the distance and surface, and shouldn't be hindered by an off track. ArchArchArch has a flexible running style and can be placed wherever his jockey wishes, which is another plus. Of concern is the good/bad race cycle he s carried since the start of his career and he's on the downside of that cycle going into the Kentucky Derby. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
BRILLIANT SPEED Pedigree: Brilliant Speed (Dynaformer - Speed Succeeds, by Gone West) Brilliant Speed is bred to run Analysis all day. His sire Dynaformer is a respected international sire, Pedigree: known for getting classy, long-winded runners. He s been on the leading sires list for years and earned top honors in 2005. His offspring are predominantly turf horses, but he s been known to get winners over dirt. Some of his best know runners include Kentucky Derby hero Barbaro, hard-knocking multimillionaire Perfect Drift, last year s Melbourne Cup hero Americain, English Champions Lucarno, Rainbow View, and steeplechase legend, McDynamo. Gone West, Brilliant Speed's damsire, is highly ranked on the broodmare sire lists. His daughters have produced 15 stakes winners who have won at 1 ¼ miles or farther. Brilliant Speed has a quality female family filled with notable stakes winners and champions. His dam Speed Succeeds is an unraced half sister to Falls City Handicap (G-2) heroine Serenading and that one s full sister, listed stakes winner Handpainted. Brilliant Speed's second dam Daijin is a stakes winning full sister to Belmont Stakes hero and sire Touch Gold. Additionally, she s a half sister to Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval, and a couple of listed stakes winners. Brilliant Speed s third dam is 1989 Canadian Broodmare of the Year Passing Mood. Like Soldat, Brilliant Speed traces back to the founder of the Lowe Family number 2-n. Brilliant Speed's third dam produced Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold. Surface: Brilliant Speed hasn't touched hoof to an off track in the afternoons. His sire and damsire are average producers of mud runners (13% & 15% respectively). Analysis: Brilliant Speed has the pedigree to love 1 1/4 miles and beyond. He's also overcome trouble in his races having been slow, green, boxed, blocked and forced out. The only mark against against this wonderful colt is his poor record over dirt. He tried the surface in two races in the beginning of his career finishing off the board, before switching to turf. Brilliant Speed's distaff side has solid dirt attributes. His damsire Gone West, second damsire Deputy Minister, third damsire Buckpasser and fourth damsire Northern Dancer all spent their careers on the dirt. Still, it's a hurdle Brilliant Speed must overcome. His fondness for the lawn and wins over Polytrack indicate that he won't be at the top of his form on dirt. Often turf horses can run well over an off track (example, last year's Derby show horse Paddy O'Prado), so give Brilliant higher consideration if the track comes up muddy. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
COMMA TO THE TOP Pedigree: Comma To The Top (Bwana Charlie - Maggies Storm, by Stormy Atlantic) Comma To The Top's sireanalysis Bwana Charlie never won beyond a mile and has the conformation Pedigree: of a typical sprinter. Like many progeny of the In Excess sire line, Bwana Charlie had a brilliant but short career. The highlights of which were victories in the Amsterdam (G-2) and Lafayette Stakes (G-3). At stud, Bwana Charlie s offspring are sprinters; however he has a handful of winners past a mile. Those offspring are out of mares with a bit more stamina in their pedigree. Comma To The Top is Bwana Charlie s only graded stakes winner. Stormy Atlantic, Comma To The Top s damsire, was a stakes winning sprinter. At stud, Stormy Atlantic sires mainly sprinters, but does have a few offspring that have won at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 miles over turf. His sole winner at 1 3/16 miles over dirt is Stormy s Majesty. That one receives stamina from his damsire Raffie s Majesty. Stormy Atlantic is a young broodmare sire, with only 65 producing daughters and two stakes winners. As a broodmare sire, Stormy Atlantic's only stakes representative successful past a mile is Comma To The Top. Comma To The Top s dam, Maggies Storm, placed once in four sprint tries. She is a half sister to the stakes winning miler Yes He s a Pistol and stakes placed Dumaai of Course. Comma To The Top is her first foal. Comma To The Top can trace his distaff lineage back to the foundation mare La Troienne through her family 1-x. The Lowe female family number 1x has produced four Kentucky Derby heroes (Sea Hero, Go For Gin, Smarty Jones and Super Saver). Surface: Comma To The Top has average mud attributes. His sire gets 11% off track winners, while Stormy Atlantic fares a bit better with 16% mud winners. Comma To The Top hasn't won over an off dirt track, but he did win the Cash Call Futurity over a very sloppy Cushion Track, which is very close to dirt in composition. Comma To The Top is a legitimate race horse and has proven himself over just about every surface. Mud shouldn't be an issue for this horse. Analysis: Comma To The Top has a miler pedigree. His high cruising speed and game of catch me if you can pace setting style has carried him to 1 1/8 miles, but in all three starts this year past a mile, he drifted out in the stretch, a sign of a tired horse. He was unable to hold off Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles and he will run out of steam during the final furlong of the Kentucky Derby. The farther they go, the worse for Comma To The Top, especially if he has company on the front end. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
DECISIVE MOMENT Pedigree: Decisive Moment (With Distinction Lady Samira, by Dehere) Decisive Moment is his Analysis second crop sire With Distinction s only winner at 1 1/8 Pedigree: miles. With Distinction, a son of Storm Cat out of an Alydar mare, won a 5 1/2 Grade 3 race and placed in a handful of other contests up to 1 1/8 miles. At stud, he's passing his precocious speed to his offspring. Decisive Moment's damsire Dehere was also a sprint specialist, but as a broodmare sire, he passes stamina along to his daughter's progeny. Dehere is the broodmare sire of seven stakes winners at the distance of 1 1/4 miles or longer, all over turf or synthetics, and all are by sires with stamina attributes. Lady Samira, Decisive Moment's unraced dam, has produced two other minor stakes placed runners and Decisive Moment's second dam Tell Margie won a minor stakes race but that s it for blacktype in the immediate family. This Lowe Female Family 2-h is represented in the Classic races by three Belmont Stakes winners, but none since 1918. Surface: Decisive Moment won over a good track, but faded to fourth over the muddy going. He was bumped and may have had an excuse for that race, but so far, With Distinction's offspring haven't fared too well over mud. He has only 6% off track winners. Dehere does a bit better with an average 16% successful off track runners. Analysis: Decisive Moment enters the Kentucky Derby off the the earnings of his two year old season, a second place finish in the Delta Jackpot. Since that race, he's won a restricted race at Delta Downs but couldn't hold off Animal Kingdom in a very weak Spiral Stakes. He had no excuse against stronger foes in the Grade 2 Risen Star. Decisive Moment will be hindered by an off track and with his front running racing style, will be another overmatched horse getting in the way when the real running begins. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
DERBY KITTEN Pedigree: Derby Kitten (Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee) Kitten's Joy was a tough competitor Analysis up to 12 furlongs and earned the 2004 Eclipse Champion Pedigree: Turf Male title. At stud, the third crop sire hasn't produced a winner at 1 1/4 miles or beyond and is represented by only one stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. His offspring fare best over turf and synthetics, but he does have a dirt stakes winner at a mile. Derby Kitten's damsire Menifee won graded stakes up to 9 furlongs and was second in four attempts past that distance, including the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Menifee's offspring have won up to 1 1/2 miles over turf, but his daughters have produced only three stakes winners, including Derby Kitten and his full brother William's Kitten. None have been successful past 1 1/16 miles and none have won over dirt. Blush, Derby Kitten's dam, won three of 15 starts. She's a young broodmare and both of her foals are stakes winners. Blush's dam, the appropriately named Cerise retired a maiden after four starts, but Derby Kitten's third dam Cherries Jubilee is a Grade 3 winner at 9.5 furlongs. Surface: Derby Kitten squeaked into the Kentucky Derby with a Grade 3 win in the Lexington Stakes held over the Keeneland Polytrack. In his only attempt over dirt, Derby Kitten ran the worst race of his career, beaten by over 27 lengths. His sire is a very poor dirt/mud producer, getting only 7% winners over an off track; however Menifee is a superior (18%) mud sire. Analysis: Derby Kitten is another example of why the Kentucky Derby should rely on a points system instead of graded stakes earnings. His win against an inferior group of Grade 3 horses was decent enough and his speed figures are improving, but he has a poor pedigree for dirt and mud and he would be better suited stepping up against other turf horses. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
DIALED IN Pedigree: Dialed In (Mineshaft - Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat) Dialed In's sire Mineshaft Analysis was the 2003 Eclipse Champion Horse of the Year despite notpedigree: competing in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He's carried his winning ways to the breeding shed and has produced two winners at 1 ¼ miles, Hawthorne Gold Cup (G-2) victor Redding Colliery and Greenwood Cup winner A U Miner. Additionally, Mineshaft s son Fly Down was second in the 2010 Belmont Stakes. All of these colts have stamina-oriented distaff families. Storm Cat, Dialed In s internationally acclaimed damsire, is always near the top of the broodmare sire lists by number of winners and money earned. His daughters produce runners over all distances and surfaces, and it's often the sire which determines how far the offspring will run. Dialed In s dam, the cleverly named Miss Doolittle, out of Eliza, faced the starter six times, winning and placing twice each, and finishing third in the Schuylerville Stakes (G-3). She never won beyond six furlongs. Miss Doolittle is a half-sister to the Irish Group 2 sprinter Samuel Morse and the English listed stakes placed sprinter Country Song. As a broodmare, Miss Doolittle produced six foals, with five making it to the track. Her daughter Broadway Gold (by Seeking The Gold) won the Astoria Stakes (5F) and placed in a listed sprint. Her other accomplished foal is Mambo Meister (by Kingmambo) who won two of 26 starts and placed in the Patterson Stakes (1 1/6 miles, turf). Miss Doolittle s dam Eliza, was the 1992 Champion Two Year Old Filly. She won five of 12 starts, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and was second in the 1993 Kentucky Oaks. Eliza (by Mt. Livermore) was best at a mile to 1 1/6 miles and finished second once at 1 1/8 miles. Dialed In s Lowe s Female Family number 37 hasn t produced any Kentucky Derby winners, but they are represented by a Preakness winner Knight of Ellerslie (1884). Dialed In shares the same great-granddam as that Preakness winner. Surface: Dialed In hasn't raced over an off track. His sire is an average producer of mud runners (14%), while Storm Cat is a superior sire of off track runners (18%). An off track shouldn't pose a problem to Dialed In. Analysis: Dialed In is battle tested and has won two major prep races for the Kentucky Derby against strong fields. Pedigree wise, he is lighter in stamina on his distaff side than is optional for getting a true route, due to the sprint attributes from his second damsire, Mt. Livermore. However, Dialed In has a confirmed stalking running style, yet a brilliant turn of foot. He will benefit from a brisk pace up front. Dialed In is a legitimate Derby threat. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
MASTER OF HOUNDS Pedigree: Master Of Hounds (Kingmambo Silk and Scarlet, by Sadler s Wells) Master Of Hounds has a phenomenal Analysis pedigree and will be one of the best bred colts in the Pedigree: Kentucky Derby. His sire Kingmambo was pensioned last year after a spectacular career at stud. He s considered one of the best stallions in the world and has sired six champions and over 100 stakes winners. Upon his retirement, Kingmambo was designated as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race, signifying that he infuses his progeny with stamina. Most of Kingmambo s progeny find themselves at home over the lawn, but he has sired eight dirt stakes winners, including his best US son, the Champion Lemon Drop Kid. Other dirt runners include Pacific Classic hero Student Council, the Japanese horse Star King Man and Count Fleet (G-3) winner Top Commander. The recently deceased Sadler s Wells is recognized as a foundation stallion for most of Europe. His bloodlines are prevalent throughout England, Ireland, Europe, Japan, Australia and Dubai. As a broodmare sire Sadler s Wells led the broodmare sire list in England and Ireland in 2005-2007 and was atop the US leading broodmare sire list in 2008. Like Kingmambo, Sadler s Wells is a Classic/Solid chef-de-race, and like that sire, Sadler s Wells is represented as a broodmare sire by a handful of dirt stakes winners. Master of Hounds' dam Silk and Scarlet is a half sister to a Group 3 winner. Master of Hounds' second dam Danilova is an unraced three-quarter sister to Opera Score, who is graded stakes placed in the US. She s also a half sister to the French Group 1 winner Sanglamore. The Lowe family number 1-l hasn t produced a Derby winner, but it is represented by Master Derby (1975) and Greek Money (1962) in the Preakness and Stage door Johnny (1968) in the Belmont. Surface: Kingmambo is an average sire of mud runners with 14% winners. Sadler's Wells has a smaller selection of dirt runners and have 11% off track runners. Many times, horses with turf pedigrees can handle the mud but not a fast track. Analysis: Master of Hounds is bred to run all day, so distance will never be a problem for this horse. The $25,000 question is how he will handle the dirt. Both Kingmambo and Sadler s Wells have produced runners over dirt, but only when bred to mares with dirt attributes (or in Sadler s Wells case as a broodmare sire, his daughters were bred to stallions with predominately dirt pedigrees). On his last visit to Kentucky, Master of Hounds finished off the board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf as the favorite. He is a year older and more experienced, but he is being handed a tough task. Contenders traveling form overseas have fared poorly in the Kentucky Derby and his trainer (O'Brian) has an unsatisfactory record with this race. Master of Hounds would have to be a very special colt to take all of these factors in stride while winning the Kentucky Derby. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE Pedigree: Midnight Interlude (War Chant - Midnight Kiss, by Groom Dancer) Midnight Interlude's sire War Analysis Chat was a swift miller who, like Midnight Interlude, made Pedigree: four starts before the Kentucky Derby. War Chant was victorious in the San Rafael, but was second in the Santa Anita Derby to The Deputy. In Kentucky, War Chant could muster no better than a ninth place finish against the 2000 Derby champ Fusaichi Pegasus. Switched to the lawn, War Chant, a son of the internationally acclaimed Danzig, found his true calling, winning the Oak Tree Mile (G-2) and the Breeders Cup Mile (G-1). War Chant has been fairly successful at stud, however, the majority of his progeny are best over the green and are distance challenged. He has produced four winners at 1 1/8 miles and only one stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles, Flawless Treasure, heroine of the 2007 Sabin Stakes over the lawn. War Chant is represented by only one winner over the dirt at 1 1/8 miles (Midnight Interlude), and none at 1 1/4 miles. Midnight Interlude s damsire Groom Dancer, a son of Blushing Groom, won from 7 1/2 to 1 1/4 miles at the Group Stakes level. Groom Dancer only sired about 50 stakes horses, despite an international career at stud in France, England Japan and Australia. As a broodmare sire, Groom Dancer s daughters have produced three winners at Classic distances. One of the three, Marshall, is bred along the same lines as Midnight Interlude, as Marshall's sire Anabaa is a son of Danzig. There is no notable blacktype in the first three generations of Midnight Interlude s distaff line. This female family is mainly European or Australian and hasn t produced an American Classic winner. Surface: Midnight Interlude won his maiden by a resounding 8 1/2 lengths over a wet-fast track. His sire War Chant is above average at getting mud runners (17%), but Groom Dancer is below average, with only 9%, although few of his offspring may have faced the off going. Analysis: Midnight Interlude has a ton of turf attributes in his pedigree, but seems to get over the dirt just fine with a long, efficient stride. His burst of speed at the end of the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby after pressing solid fractions suggests that he might be capable of handling 1 ¼ miles. His sire lends him the ability to quicken and the agility to avoid trouble, while his distaff line and damsire add the necessary stamina. Although Midnight Interlude might handle 1 1/4 miles, he seems up against it, both historically and experience wise. The only horse to win the Kentucky Derby without a two year old foundation was Apollo in 1892. Midnight Interlude may be taking on too much too soon. Even Curlin, who had won his maiden in January, couldn t handle the Derby stampede and wound up fourth. However, like Curlin, perhaps Midnight Interlude can gain experience in the Kentucky Derby and use it as a springboard to a Championship later in the year. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
MUCHO MACHO MAN Pedigree: Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno Ponche De Leona, by Ponche) Mucho Macho Man's sire Analysis Macho Uno was a brilliant two year old, winning the Breeders' Pedigree: Cup Juvenile in an exciting duel with Point Given. Unfortunately, he missed the Triple Crown contests due to injury. As an older horse, he was successful at the highest levels up to 1 1/8 miles, but finished no better than third in three attempts at 1 1/4 miles. Macho Uno's offspring have the same distance limitations as their sire. The majority are fine up to 1 1/8 miles but he has no winners at 1 1/4 miles from 209 lifetime starters. Ponche, Mucho Macho Man's Canadian-bred damsire, raced 47 times, winning 16 events, including five listed sprint stakes. He was a fixture on the Florida circuit and had a stakes race named for him at Calder Racecourse. Ponche sired only eight blacktype runners, including Mucho Macho Man's dam. His daughters have produced few stakes horses and Mucho Macho Man is undoubtedly Ponche's best grandson. Surface: Mucho Macho Man has raced exclusively over a fast track. His sire is a superior off track producer (23%) and damsire Ponche won or placed in seven out of eight outings over the mud. While Mucho Macho Man is untested over mud, his pedigree indicates that he should be capable over an off track. Analysis: Mucho Macho Man's pedigree is light on stamina and he is borderline for getting the Derby distance. However, he is a large, long-striding horse and he has a strong mid-race move. Mucho Macho Man overcame adversity in the Louisiana Derby while taking third place despite running without a shoe. Some horses can overcome a borderline pedigree if other factors are in their favor. Mucho Macho Man may have what it takes to finish in the money in the Kentucky Derby and he could benefit from a wet track. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
NEHRO Pedigree: Nehro (Mineshaft The Administrator, by Afleet) Typical of Mineshaft offspring, Analysis Nehro is a late-maturing runner. His sire Mineshaft alsopedigree: produced Dialed In, and we reviewed Mineshaft s attributes under that contender s pedigree notes. Nehro s damsire Afleet was the 1989 Canadian Champion and Horse of the Year. He was successful from six to nine furlongs and placed twice at 1 ¼ miles. At stud, Afleet was best at getting stakes winners between sprints and middle distances (1 1/8 miles). He never produced a winner at Classic distances, but he did get the good sire Northern Afleet, who sired Preakness/Belmont hero Afleet Alex. Afleet s daughters have produced five winners at 1 ¼ miles or farther when matched with stamina-oriented stallions. The Administrator, Nehro s dam, entered the starting gate 26 times as a sprint specialist. She was successful in four attempts, including a listed stakes while placing 11 times. She s been a solid broodmare, getting five winners, including Discovery Handicap (G-3) victor Saint Marden and Sunshine Millions Distaff heroine Sweet Lips. Nehro is descended from the Lowe Female Family 4r. Family four is the most prolific distaff line in history and the 4r branch has produced five each of Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes winners. Unfortunately, Nehro isn t directly related to any of the Classic heroes. Surface: Nehro hasn t competed over a sloppy track and his pedigree is average for the surface. His sire gets 14% winners and his damsire Afleet produced 15% winners. Nehro s dam The Adminsitrator encountered an off track once in her career and placed third. Nehro may not be hindered by the off going, but he won t get a benefit from it either. Analysis: Nehro's pedigree indicates that he should handle 1 1/4 miles. He can be placed from midpack back and has a very strong late move. The colt is developing very quickly, and ran both his lifetime best late pace (109) and speed figure (99) in the Arkansas Derby. He started once at two and has run once a month since last December, so Nehro should have a decent foundation. Nehro has the tools to be a threat in the Kentucky Derby. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
PANTS ON FIRE Pedigree: Pants On Fire's (Jump Start Cabo De Noche, by Cape Town) Pants On Fire's sire Jump Analysis Start, a well bred son of A.P. Indy out of the stakes placed StormPedigree: Cat mare Steady Start, was a precocious two year old. He won the Saratoga Special (G-1) at 6 ½ furlongs and was second to Officer in the Champagne (G-1) at 1 1/16 miles. Unfortunately, Jump Start suffered a career ending injury and was sent to stud at the end of his two year old season. Jump Start is a young stallion. He s produced 22 stakes winners from six crops of foals, but only one, Rail Trip, has been successful at 1 1/4 miles. Pants On Fire s damsire Cape Town won the Florida Derby on disqualification, but was unplaced in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Sent to stud after the 1998 Preakness, Cape Town set about siring stakes winners up to 1 1/8 miles, however he does have on winner at 1/14 miles, the Venezuelan Group 2 mare Dubai Queen. Cape Town s daughters produce sprinter/milers. They haven t produced a winner at 1 ¼ miles or longer, and Pants On Fire is the only representative that has been successful at 1 1/8 miles. Pants On Fire's dam Cabo De Noche needed 15 attempts to win her maiden which was her only victory. Cabo De Noche is a half sister to The Gulfstream Park Turf Sakes winner Hatfield and Grade 1 Stakes placed Key Hunter. Pants On Fire and Toby's Corner are descended from the same Lowe Female Family 17-b, which has produced the Triple Crown Champ Omaha, (1935), two Derby heroes and four Belmont Stakes winners. Pants On Fire, Toby's Corner and Omaha trace back to the same mare, Flambette through her daughters. Surface: Pants On fire won his maiden decisively over a sloppy track, so we know he ll handle the surface. His sire Jump Start gets an average number of mud runners (15%) while Cape Town is known as a superior sire of off track winners (20%). Analysis: Pants On Fire has a very borderline pedigree for 1 ¼ miles. Although his sire and damsire each have a winner at the Classic distance, this is more an anomaly than the norm. On the plus side, Pants On Fire could benefit from a wet track and he s been in the money in the majority of his starts. He could grab a minor award, but he may be running out of gas about ten steps from the wire. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
SANTIVA Pedigree: Santiva (Giant s Causeway Slide, by Smarten) Santiva is by the international Analysis sire sensation Giant s Causeway. Nicknamed Iron Horse Pedigree: for his exploits over the European courses, Giant s Causeway triumphed in six Group 1 contests. In his only start over dirt, the talented colt finished second to a head to the gallant Tiznow in the 2000 running of the Breeders Cup Classic. Giant s Causeway has passed his talent and determination to his offspring. In only eight crops to race, he s sired 100 stakes winners and a Champion. He was named leading US sire in 2009 and was recognized as a Classic chef-de-race in 2010. Although many of his progeny are best over turf, Giant s Causeway has sired seven dirt stakes winners at 1 ¼ miles or farther. Smarten, Santiva s damsire, was a Grade 2 and 3 winner. He won once at 1 ¼ miles against lesser company but wasn t quite up to the top level of competition, finishing second four times at the distance against Grade 1 horses. He also finished second twice at 1 ½ miles. Smarten fared better in the breeding shed, more as a broodmare sire than a sire of sires. Undoubtedly, his best progeny was Canadian Champion filly Classy 'n Smart, who, while an excellent runner in her on right, went on to blue hen (superior female) status as a broodmare. Classy n Smart bore two-time Canadian Champion Filly Dance Smartly and the prominent sire Smart Strike. Smarten is also the broodmare sire of Santa Anita Derby/Pacific Classic winner General Challenge. Santiva s unraced dam Slide is a half sister to the Champion Sprinter, Safely Kept and the multiple stakes winning sprinter, Partner s Hero. Santiva s full sister Her Majesty placed in the Alcibiades Stakes and his half brother, Take Arms is Grade 3 stakes placed. Santiva s Lowe Female Family 4-m has generated five Kentucky Derby winners. The last was Sunny s Halo in 1983. This family has produced an equal number of Preakness winners, including 2006 winner and new sire sensation, Bernardini. Santiva traces directly back through his distaff line to Maggie BB, dam of 1879 Preakness winner Harold and 1884 Belmont Stakes winner Panique. Surface: Santiva was third in his debut over a good Saratoga track. He has an above average mud pedigree. Giant s Causeway gets 17% off track winners while Smarten s offspring win at 15% over the surface. Santiva has proven himself over dirt and was second over the turf. He should have no excuse over a muddy track. Analysis: Santiva has a stamina oriented pedigree with above average attributes for the mud. He showed class winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G-2) at Churchill as a juvenile and was second after a wide trip in his three year old debut in the Risen Star. Santiva had a troubled trip in the Blue Grass Stakes and wasn t able to put forth his best effort. He has the pedigree and talent to do well in the Kentucky Derby and may be overlooked due to his poor effort last time out. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
SHACKLEFORD Pedigree: Shackleford (Forestry Oatsee, by Unbridled) Shackleford's sire ForestryAnalysis was a precocious miler. He won twice at 1 1/16 miles, but couldn t Pedigree: sustain his speed an extra half furlong, finishing third in the 1 1/8 mile Haskell Invitational after setting his customarily quick pace. In the breeding shed, Forestry, a product of the Northern Dancer sire line, passes his brilliant speed to his progeny. The majority of his offspring are well suited to races up to 1 1/16 miles, but a precious few have won at 1 1/8 miles and one, Woodlander, won the Lexington Stakes (G-3) over the turf when it was held at 1 ¼ miles. Shackleford s damsire Unbridled won a stirring rendition of the 1990 Kentucky Derby. Later he took that year s Breeders Cup Classic on his way to an Eclipse Award for Champion Three Year Old. Unbridled is currently ranked 11 on the National Broodmare Sire List by earnings. His daughters have produced ten stakes winners at 1 ¼ miles or longer, including Shackleford's half sister Lady Joanne. One other winner at 1 1/4 miles, Distorted Reality, is descended from the same distaff family as Shackleford. Shackleford s dam Oatsee was in the money in half of her 21 starts. She was slow to mature and didn t win her maiden until July of her three year old season, despite 11 earlier attempts. Oatsee won two starts, both sprinting over the dirt. Oatsee had better luck in the breeding shed. Her second foal, Baghdaria, won the Indiana and Iowa Oaks at 1 1/16 miles and was third in in the 1 1/18 mile Black Eyed Susan. Oatsee s third foal, Lady Joanne, won the Golden Rod as a two year old. At three, she was victorious in the Grade 3 Dogwood at a mile and the prestigious Alabama Stakes (G-1) at 1 ¼ miles. Shackleford s distaff line is filled with prominent winners. However, despite his prestigious female family, it hasn t produced a Classic horse. Surface: Shackleford hasn't stepped hoof on a wet track, but he has superior breeding for the surface. Both his sire and damsire get 19% winners over the mud. Analysis: Shackleford has a pedigree of precocious speed over sturdy stamina, but he is suspect for getting 1 1/4 miles. Forestry has only stakes winner at 1/1 4 miles from 506 starters. Shackleford has a superior mud pedigree which could aid him if the track comes up wet. There's no doubting Shackleford's gameness in fighting to the wire of the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby. However, his on the lead running style and suspect pedigree indicate that he will backing up at the end of the Derby, but he just might hang on long enough for a minor part. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
SILVER MEDALLION Pedigree: Silver Medallion (Badge of Silver Another Vegetarian, by Stalwart) Silver Medallion's sire Badge Analysis of Silver won four times at 1 1/8 miles, but never attemptedpedigree: 1 1/4 miles. He was a Grade 2 - Grade 3 type horse and placed twice in Grade 1 company. At stud, the second crop stallion is represented by two winners at 1 1/8 miles, Silver Medallion and King Congie. He gets winners over all surfaces, but oddly, Badge of Silver has no winners beyond seven furlongs over dirt. Damsire Stalwart cost $500,000 in 1980 as a yearling, and won four of five starts, including two stakes races as a juvenile. Unfortunately, he was injured before starting as a three year old and was retired. As a sire, Stalwart sired 55 stakes winners, including Spinaway Stakes heroine Things Change and Kingpost, who was second in the 1998 Belmont Stakes. As a broodmare sire, Stalwart's daughters have produced two winners at 1 1/4 miles, both over dirt. Silver Medallion's dam retied a maiden after placing once in four starts. She's becoming a decent broodmare and has produced Silver Medallion's half sister Sweet Talker, winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G-1) over the lawn. Another Vegetarian is a half sister to the Group 2 winner Tiffany Diamond and another half sister produced the Grade 1 heroine Check The Label and her stakes winning half sister On The Menu. Surface: Badge of Silver is quickly proving that his babies can run over anything. He currently has 29% winners over off tracks. Stalwart was a noted mud sire, as were most of the stallions descended from Ribot. Analysis: No one knows how far Badge of Silver's offspring will want to run. Both his sire and damsire produced winners at 1 1/4 miles, so he may pass these attributes to his offspring. Stalwart sired a Belmont place horse and his daughters bore classic distance winners, so Silver Medallion may be able to handle 1 1/4 miles. He should also enjoy splashing in the mud. Of concern is his that his first foray into dirt racing resulted in a lackluster performance in the Santa Anita Derby. Both attempts against Grade 1 company resulted in off the board finishes. Silver Medallion's best performances came over Turf and Tapeta, so he may mature into a decent turf horse. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
SOLDAT Pedigree: Soldat (War Front Le Relais, by Coronado s Quest) Soldat's second crop sire War Analysis Front was a dirt sprinter, but he is a son of the international Pedigree: sire Danzig and he is producing winners over all surfaces. War Front's damsire Rubaino was Champion Sprinter of 1992. We don't know how far War Front's babies will want to run, but Soldat has been successful at 1 1/8 miles. Soldat s damsire Coronado's Quest competed at the top levels of racing. As a juvenile, he was precocious enough to win the Cowdin at 6 1/2 furlongs, but also took the Remsen and Nashua Stakes at 1 18 miles. Coronado's Quest won the Wood Memorial, but missed out on the Triple Crown due to illness. He made up for it by winning the Travers Stakes, commonly known as the Midsummer Derby. At stud, Coronado's Quest was best as a broodmare sire. He only stood a few years in the US before transferring to Japan. His best offspring was multiple G-1 winning mare Society Selection. Coronado's Quest's daughters produce stakes winners at middle distances (1 mile to 1 1/8 miles). He is represented by one winner at 1 1/4 miles or longer, the recent San Juan Capistrano winner Juniper Pass. Soldat's second damsire Apalachee was a Champion two year old in England and Ireland and is a speed influence. Soldat has a modest distaff family. His dam Le Relais, Soldat's was unraced and he is her first foal to race. She's a half sister to a Canadian Grade 3 winner and a stakes placed runner. Other than Soldat's stakes placed second dam, that's about it for blacktype in the immediate family. Soldat is a descendant of the Low family 2-n. The family hasn't produced a Kentucky Derby winner, but does have two Preakness and three Belmont winners, the last was Point Given 2001. Surface: Soldat has handled every surface handed to him so far. He's won over a muddy, sloppy and fast track. Surface won't be an issue for him. Analysis: Soldat could do no wrong until April 3 when he threw a clunker in the Florida Derby. He had won two previous starts over the Gulfstream track, both times on the lead, but was farther back than usual in the Florida Derby. Soldat may have a borderline pedigree for the Kentucky Derby, since his sire is a bit light on stamina, and his front running style may be tested by other speedy colts. Keep an eye on Soldat's works and physical appearance leading up to the Derby, especially if rain is forecasted. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
STAY THIRSTY Pedigree: Stay Thirsty (Bernardini Marozia, by Storm Bird) Stay Thirsty's second cropanalysis sire Bernardini won from a mile to 1 1/4 miles, Including the Preakness Pedigree: and Travers Stakes. As a three year old he beat older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and although he was second to the older Invasor in a highly anticipated match-up in the Breeders Cup Classic, Bernardini earned Horse of the Year honors for his previous exploits. At stud, Bernardini is one of the best first crop sires of 2010. Bernardini s breeding and the talent of his progeny indicates that distance won t pose a problem. Thus, the promising stallion is poised to become a successor to his sire A.P. Indy in getting stamina oriented offspring. With A.P. Indy as his sire and Quiet American as his damsire, one would expect that Bernardini s progeny would be slow to develop; however Bernardini s dam won three times and placed four times in nine starts at two, which likely has an influence on her son s early success at stud. Besides Stay Thirsty, Bernardini has sired Nashua/Remsen winner To Honor And Serve and graded stakes winner AZ Warrior. Stay Thirsty s dam Marozia raced nine times in England and won or was in the money four times. She s a successful broodmare, having produced four winners from five foals to race, including Stay Thirsty s half brothers Andromeda s Hero, who was second in the Belmont Stakes and his precocious full brother Superfly who placed in the Champagne Stakes. Stay Thirsty s distaff family traces directly back to Mahubah, the dam of Man O War. His fifth dam Igual produced the Triple Crown Champ Assault. Stay Thirsty s damsire Storm Bird was a Champion Juvenile in Ireland. At stud he produced Preakness winner Summer Squall, the great sire Storm Cat and many other prominent runners. The offspring produced by his daughters include Belmont Stakes hero Birdstone and multiple G-1 winners Commentator and Court Vision. Stay Thirsty also carries the bloodlines of the Classic Chef-de-Race Roberto and Belmont Stakes winner Arts and Letters. Surface: Stay Thirsty hasn't run in the mud, but he was second in his debut over a good track. His sire is starting to assert himself as a superior mud producer (50%) and Storm Bird is a known off track producer. Analysis: Stay Thirsty has one of the best stamina and mud pedigrees in the field. He's had only two off the board finishes, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby. He likes to press the pace, but proved in the Gotham Stakes that he doesn't need to be up close. Stay Thirsty dominated the Gotham Stakes, but shipping from Florida's steamy climate to the cooler New York and back again may have affected Stay Thirsty's lackluster performance in the Florida Derby. Stay Thirsty had plenty of time to acclimate to Kentucky's climate and showed his fondness for the wet track with a recent bullet breeze. Stay Thirsty is one to watch in the Kentucky Derby. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
TOBY'S CORNER Pedigree: Toby's Corner (Bellamy Road - Brandons Ride, by Mister Frisky) Toby's Corner's sire Bellamy Analysis Road, undoubtedly ran his best race in the 2005 Wood Memorial, Pedigree: trying the 1972 stakes record set by Riva Ridge. Sent to the post as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, Bellamy Road was up close to the fastest pace set in Derby history and faded to seventh. The second crop sire is represented by winners from 4 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Although it s too soon to tell whether Bellamy Road s offspring will handle 1 ¼ miles, his pedigree indicates most of his progeny will be suspect at the Classic distances unless there are strong stamina attributes on the individual s distaff side. Mister Frisky, Toby's Corner's damsire also entered the Kentucky Derby as the favorite with a sixteen race win streak under his girth, but he could do no better than eighth against Unbridled in the 1990 edition. The gallant colt rebounded somewhat to place third in the Preakness and it was discovered that he had a large throat tumor a few weeks after the race. Due to a modest pedigree, Mister Frisky wasn t successful at stud in the US, getting only three stakes winners. His best progeny was multiple graded stakes winner Mr. Frisky, who won the Grade 1 Oaklawn Handicap and the 1 ¼ mile Suburban. As a broodmare sire, Mister Frisky s daughters have only produced a handful of stakes horses. None of which have been successful past 1 1/8 miles. Toby's Corner's dam Brandons Ride was based in Florida and won once in six attempts. She fared better as a broodmare, getting the listed stakes winner Bushmills Best, who is a ¾ brother to Toby s Corner. All four of Brandons Ride s foals are winners and three have faced the starter 20 or more times. Toby s Corner descends from an unassuming distaff family. He is the first US graded stakes winner in his family in four generations, and the first stakes winner in three. Like derby contender Pants On Fire, Toby's Corner s part of the Lowe Female Family 17-b. He traces back to the Flambette, the dam of Triple Crown Champ Omaha, through one of her daughters. Surface: Toby's Corner won the Whirlaway over a sloppy Aqueduct track, so he's proven over the off going. His sire is proving to be a superior mud sire with 24% winners over the surface. Analysis: Toby s Corner s rather indifferent lineage appears borderline for the Classic distances. However his foundation, mid-pack running style and experience in larger fields will stand him in good stead. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved
TWICE THE APPEAL Pedigree: Twice The Appeal (Successful Appeal - Double Boarded, by Cormorant) Twice The Appeal's sire was Analysis a Grade 2-3 sprint winner. He could make it to 6 1/2 furlongs, Pedigree: but not a step more. He's passing his speed along to his offspring. Most are sprinter/miler types, but Successful Appeal does has two winners at 1 1/4 miles or farther, the Argentinean Golden Success Successful Affair, who won the 13 furlong Gallant Fox Handicap (G-3). Both were out of dams with stamina-oriented distaff lines. His son Closing Argument should also be counted, as he missed winning the 2005 Kentucky Derby by a nose. Twice The Appeal's damsire Cormorant is rarely seen so close up in pedigrees. The stallion's name is usually found in the third or fourth generations. Cormorant was successful from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. At stud, Cormorant, a grandson of the legendary Ribot, sired 47 stakes winners, and they included Kentucky Derby winner Go For Gin, Acorn Stakes winner Grecian Flight, Beldame heroine Saratoga Dew, the New York Champion Sire, Raffie's Majesty and perennial New York favorite Gander. Cormorant daughters produced 38 stakes winners, including Breeders' Cup Sprint hero and sire Silver Train, and Twice The Appeal's half sister Board Eligible. There's no doubt that Cormorant passed stamina to his offspring, but as a damsire he doesn't have any stakes winners that have been victorious at 1 1/4 miles. Double Boarded, Twice The Appeal's dam, was unsuccessful as a race horse. She started 20 times and failed to win. She's fared better as a broodmare, getting the aforementioned Board Eligible who won the 1 1/8 mile Montauk Stakes and placed in the Grade 3 Ladies Handicap at 1 1/4 miles. Double Boarded is a full sister to the listed stakes winner Keep It S.S., a three quarter sister to listed stakes winner Cologny and a half sister to the stakes winner Selective. All three were hardy runners, facing the starter 33 to 56 times. Like Dialed In, Twice The Appeal is descended from the Lowe Female Family 20, which produced two Kentucky Derby winners, the latest was Alysheba. Twice The Appeal and Dialed In are from separate branches of this family. Surface: Twice The Appeal has won over a wet fast track. He has superior breeding for an off track. His sire gets 18% winners over the surface and Cormorant is known as a superior sire of mud runners. Analysis: Twice The Appeal is borderline for the Kentucky Derby Distance. His sire gets sprinter/miler types and while Cormorant offers stamina attributes, none of the stakes winners in this distaff family have been successful past 1 1/8 miles. Twice The Appeal beat a very soft group in the Sunland Derby, so his class is suspect. However, he could improve over an off track. Copyright 2011 - - All Rights Reserved