Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Government Finance Officers Assoc. April 21, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Government Finance Officers Assoc. April 21, 2017

National Economic Conditions

Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street Journal

Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sept 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 130.0 Current Level of Consumer Confidence Indicates Economic Prosperity 120.0 110.0 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 Source: The Conference Board

Expectations of Future Inflation on the Rise

Small Business Optimism on the Rise

Irrational Exuberance?

Divergence of Soft vs Hard Data

Why?

Thousands Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Thousands Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Index Slower Recovery than Past Recessions 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Periods from Value Scaled to 100 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession 1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Slower Recovery than Past Recessions

Mixed March Job Indicators Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 175,000 98,000 Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.5% Private Payrolls 200,000 89,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.3% 0.2% 2.8% 2.7% Labor Force Participation 62.9% 63.0% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Payroll Change 000 s 98,000 Jobs Added in March 500 300 8.7 Million Jobs Lost 100-100 -300-500 15.5 Million Jobs Recovered -700-900 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

January-16 February-16 March-16 April-16 May-16 June-16 July-16 August-16 September-16 October-16 November-16 December-16 January-17 February-17 March-17 Payroll Change 000 s 98,000 Jobs Added in March 350 300 250 200 150 100 126 237 225 153 297 291 176 249 124 164 155 216 219 98 50 43 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Mar 2016 to Mar 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -1.2% Total: 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 3.2% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Mar 2016 to Mar 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 3 Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -32 37 54 177 192 178 152 258 527 639-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unemployment Rate Indicates Full Employment 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 5.0% = Full Employment 3.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 18.0 16.0 Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Down from Last Month 14.0 12.0 7.1 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.4 4.0 2.0 U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Long Term Unemployment Too High

Unemployment Duration Remains High

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 % 68 66 Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years Mar 2000 67.3% 64 62 Apr 1978 63.0% 60 58 Mar 2017 63.0% 56 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % 68.0 Labor Force Participation Increasing Slightly 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 63.0 62.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted

1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 90% 80% Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate Male vs Female 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Participation Among Women Aged 25-34 Has Surged

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4.0% 3.5% Yearly Wage Growth Down Slightly in March Mar. 2017 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% 2007-2016 Average = 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent Producer Price Index Rising Slightly in March 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; not seasonally adjusted

Sept 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sept 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sept 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sept 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 June 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Inflation Above Fed Target But Below Expectations in March U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent Growth in Consumer Spending At Par 5 4 3 Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change 2 1 0-1 -2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent 3.5 Core CPI vs. Core PCE Yearly Change Rate 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 U.S. Core CPI U.S. Core PCE Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Note: Core CPI and Core PCE represent all items less food and energy

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Growth Rate Consumption Drives Growth 5% Total GDP Growth 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% Fixed Investment Inventories Net Exports Government Personal Consumption 4Q GDP 2.1% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 The U.S. Dollar is Strong 140 130 120 110 100 90 1973 = 100 Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad 80 Source: Federal Reserve

Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 1.39 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 PARITY 1.06 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 U.S. Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 2008 China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

British Pound Dropped to New Low Following Brexit Vote $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 Brexit Vote $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 U.S. Total Rig Count Recovering from Low as Oil Prices Rise $120 2,200 $110 2,000 $100 1,800 $90 1,600 $80 1,400 $70 1,200 $60 $50 1,000 $40 800 $30 600 $20 400 Oil Prices Active Oil Rigs Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 3 nd Increase in Over a Decade 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Federal Funds Target Rate = 1.0 1.0 0.0 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve

Percent Fed Funds Rate, Unemployment and Inflation 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 FEDFUNDS UNRATE PCE %Δ YoY 0.00 1 st increase since 2006-2.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

March 2017 Fed Rate Increase Projections 4% 3% 3.0% 3.0% 2% 2.1% 1.4% 1% 0% 2017 2018 2019 Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Utah Economic Conditions

Utah Accolades CNBC: Utah Named 2016 Top State for Business WalletHub: Utah Named 2016 State with Best Economy CNBC: Salt Lake City (18), Ogden (7), and Provo (2) Named Among Top 20 Metro Areas to Start a Business in U.S. Forbes: Utah Named #1 Best State for Business (top stop 5 out of past 6 years) Standard & Poor s, Moody s Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings: Utah One of only 10 States with AAA Bond Rating

Source: U.S. Census Bureau CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% HI 0.2% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.7% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Population Loss WV -0.5% VT -0.2% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% PA -0.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1%

Total Population 1950 1955 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 e = estimate, f = forecast 2005 2010 2015 2017f 2018f Utah Population and Components of Change 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,051,217 90000 80000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200,000 900,000 600,000 300,000 25,412 34,997 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0-10000 Components of Population Change 0-20000 Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2015 to 2016 Box Elder 2.2% Tooele 3.1% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.2% Rich 1.0% Weber 1.7% Morgan 3.1% Summit Salt Lake 2.1% 1.5% Utah 3.0% Wasatch 4.7% Duchesne -2.1% Daggett -1.4% Uintah -3.7% State Average = 2.0% Juab 4.2% Carbon -0.2% Increase of 3.0% or Greater Increase of 2.0% to 2.9% Millard 0.4% Sanpete 2.1% Sevier 1.6% Emery -1.3% Grand 0.9% Increase of 1.0% to 1.9% Beaver 1.9% Piute -2.5% Wayne 0.0% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% Population Loss Iron 3.4% Washington 3.1% Kane 3.0% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 7.6%

CA 1.9% OR 2.2% Percent Change in Employment for States: February 2016 to February 2017 U.S. Rate = 1.6% WA 2.7% NV 3.2% AK -2.0% ID 3.6% UT 3.3% AZ 2.2% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Utah Employment Growth 2 nd Highest in the Nation MT 2.4% WY -2.5% HI 0.8% CO 1.9% NM 0.7% ND -0.7% SD 1.4% NE 1.3% KS 0.0% TX 1.9% OK -0.4% MN 1.3% IA 0.7% MO 1.9% AR 1.3% WI 1.0% LA 0.2% IL 0.8% MS 0.1% MI 1.9% IN 1.3% TN 2.2% AL 1.5% OH 0.8% KY 1.4% GA 2.6% WV -0.4% VT 1.1% PA 1.3% NC 1.8% SC 1.6% VA 1.4% FL 3.0% NH 1.7% NY 1.4% 2.0% or more 1.6% to 1.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss ME 0.5% DC 0.5% CT 0.1% DE 0.7% MD 2.1% MA 1.6% RI 1.2% NJ 1.8%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Thousands of Employees Utah Total Employment at New Highs 1500 1400 1300 Gain of 284,000 jobs from low in 2009 1200 1100 1000 900 Loss of 92,000 jobs from 2007-2009 800 Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: February 2016 to February 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -9.1% Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Total: 3.3% -1.6% 4.1% 3.0% 4.3% 2.0% 4.2% 3.8% 3.1% 4.4% 2.3% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: February 2016 to February 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -800 Construction 3,500 Manufacturing 3,800 Trade, Trans., Utilities 11,500 Information -600 Financial Activity 1,600 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 8,200 Ed. & Health Serv. 7,200 Leisure & Hospitality 4,200 Other Services Government 1,700 5,400 Total: 45,700-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000

Utah Employment Change Rates By County Feb 2016 to Feb 2017 State Rate = 3.3% Box Elder 4.1% Tooele 5.3% Juab 1.2% Cache 1.6% Rich 12.4% Weber 3.7% Davis 3.1% Morgan 3.0% Salt Lake 3.5% Utah 4.4% Summit 3.1% Wasatch 5.9% Duchesne -3.7% Carbon -3.6% Daggett 6.5% Uintah -3.7% 5.0% or more 3.3% to 4.9% Millard 5.1% Sanpete 4.0% Sevier 2.0% Emery -4.1% Grand 5.0% 1.0% to 3.2% Beaver -3.8% Piute 3.3% Wayne -1.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Iron 6.4% Garfield 1.9% San Juan 0.5% Loss Washington 5.1% Kane -1.8% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted

OR 4.0% CA 5.0% WA 4.9% NV 4.9% AK 6.4% ID 3.6% UT 3.1% AZ 5.1% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics UT Unemployment Rates 7 th Lowest in the Nation MT 3.8% HI 2.8% WY 4.7% CO 2.9% NM 6.8% February 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.7% ND 2.9% SD 2.8% NE 3.2% KS 4.0% TX 4.9% OK 4.6% MN 4.0% IA 3.2% MO 4.1% AR 3.7% LA 5.8% WI 3.7% IL 5.4% MS 5.2% MI 5.3% IN 4.1% TN 5.3% AL 6.2% 3.9% or less OH 5.1% KY 4.9% GA 5.3% WV 5.2% VT 3.0% PA 5.0% NC 5.1% SC 4.4% VA 3.9% FL 5.0% NH 2.7% NY 4.4% 4.0% to 4.7% (at or below U.S. rate) 4.8% to 5.4% 5.5% to 5.9% 6.0% or more ME 3.2% DC 5.7% CT 4.7% DE 4.5% MD 4.2% MA 3.4% RI 4.5% NJ 4.4%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Utah Unemployment Rates By County February 2017 State Rate = 3.1% Box Elder 3.2% Tooele 3.3% Juab 3.2% Cache 2.8% Weber 3.5% Morgan Davis 2.9% 2.7% Salt Lake 2.9% Utah 2.8% Rich 2.9% Summit 2.8% Wasatch 3.0% Duchesne 6.5% Carbon 5.4% Daggett 3.5% Uintah 6.8% 3.1% or lower 3.2% to 3.9% Millard 3.2% Sanpete 3.7% Sevier 3.6% Emery 5.6% Grand 5.4% 4.0% to 5.9% Beaver 4.8% Piute 5.2% Wayne 7.6% 6.0% to 6.9% Iron 4.1% Garfield 7.9% San Juan 7.3% 7.0% or greater Washington 3.3% Kane 3.4%

OR 4.5% CA 4.5% WA 4.8% NV 5.9% UT 5.6% AZ 4.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis UT Personal Income Growth 2 nd Highest in the Nation AK -1.0% ID 3.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : 2015 2016 U.S. = 3.6%; UT = 5.6% MT 2.3% WY -1.7% HI 4.5% CO 3.9% NM 2.1% ND -1.5% SD 1.2% NE 2.8% KS 2.8% TX 2.9% OK 0.6% MN 3.0% IA 2.3% MO 3.5% AR 3.2% WI 3.1% LA 1.5% IL 3.1% MS 3.2% MI 3.6% IN 3.9% TN 3.9% AL 3.3% 4.0% or more OH 3.0% KY 2.6% GA 4.8% WV 1.0% VT 3.3% PA 2.9% NC 4.1% SC 4.4% VA 3.6% FL 4.9% NH 4.7% NY 2.9% 3.6% to 3.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease ME 3.7% DC 4.5% CT 3.0% DE 2.9% MD 3.7% MA 4.3% RI 3.1% NJ 3.2%

Utah Poverty Rate 5 th Lowest in the Nation CA 13.9% WA 11.4% OR 11.9% NV 13.0% AK 9.2% ID 12.3% UT 9.3% AZ 17.2% 2015 U.S. Rate = 13.5%, 2015 Utah Rate = 9.3% MT 11.9% WY 9.8% HI 10.9% CO 9.9% NM 19.7% ND 10.7% SD 13.9% NE 10.3% KS 14.2% TX 14.7% OK 14.2% MN 7.8% IA 10.4% MO 9.8% AR 16.1% WI 11.4% LA 18.6% IL 10.9% MS 19.1% MI 12.8% IN 13.5% TN 14.7% AL 16.3% 10.0% or less 10.1% to 11.0% OH 13.6% KY 19.5% WV 14.5% VT 10.7% PA 12.3% VA 10.9% NC 15.3% SC 14.3% GA 18.1% FL 16.2% NH 7.3% NY 14.2% 11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate) 13.6% to 16.0% 16.1% or more ME 12.3% DC 16.6% CT 9.1% DE 11.1% MD 9.6% MA 11.5% RI 11.8% NJ 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Consumer Sentiment on the Rise 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index United States Consumer

Aug 2011 Nov 2011 Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 May 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Feb 2014 May 2014 Aug 2014 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Consumer Price Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front United States CPI: +2.7% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +3.2% Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

2000 2001 Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Utah Median Home Sale Prices Reaching Approaching Pre-Recession Highs $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 Utah U.S.

2008 Source: Graphiq.com 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process U.S. Utah

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 30,000 Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight

Millions 1970 1975 1980 Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 e= estimate f = forecast 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 Utah Value of New Residential Construction Increasing $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total

Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast Utah Economic Indicators 2015-2018f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f

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