Catch the buzz daily from some of the nation s best handicappers every day in your e-mail in-box! $10 daily ($15 Saturday) ~ $49.95 monthly ~ $100 three months - strong play - stronger play - strongest play SATURDAY S BUZZ POST TIMES: ALL TIMES LISTED EDT. 10:30a CD R1 #4 Jerald 20-1 4s, BWS 11:01p CD R2 #1a Tough Customer 9-2 5s, DCD 11:01p CD R2 #4 Tapit Wicked 6-1 4s, JS 11:31a CD R3 #3 Coyote Moon 12-1 4s, BWS 11:31a CD R3 #11 Susan s Reward 12-1 4s, JS 11:31a CD R3 #5 Gandono 15-1 3s, JN 12:04p CD R4 #6 Cat Burglar 4-1 4s, CH 12:04p CD R4 #7 Jessica s Star 12-1 4s, JP 12:38p CD R5 #5 Lord Nelson 3-1 5s, JS 12:38p CD R5 #1 Where s the Moon 15-1 3s, DCD 1:19p CD R6 #11 Divisidero 20-1 3s, BN 2:08p CD R7 #7 Sweet Whiskey 6-1 4s, JP 2:59p CD R8 #4 Lady Lara 7-2 4s, CH 2:59p CD R8 #11 Water Hole 12-1 4s, JN 2:59p CD R8 #12 Kitty Wine 15-1 3s, BN 4:44p CD R10 #5 Finnegans Wake 9-2 5s, JS 4:44p CD R10 #10 Chocolate Ride 12-1 4s, BWS 7:35p CD R12 #4 Guapo Man 5-1 5s, BWS & CH 7:35p CD R12 #1 Flash Trading 10-1 4s, JS 7:35p CD R12 #13 Unbridled Juan 3-1 4s, BN 8:05p CD R13 #4 Wild and Unbridled 12-1 5s, JP 8:05p CD R13 #5 Imslopokerodriguez 15-1 3s, JN SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015 CHURCHILL DOWNS Race 1 CD #4 Jerald (20-1) Our Eyes: Was stuck behind horses last time out under a bit of a hold and didn't seem to appreciate it. Both of his previous, impressive, scores came when able to run a more freewheeling race, and expect that he'll do that again here. Brian W. Spencer Brian's Playbook: Win, place bets. Race 2 Churchill Downs #1a Tough Customer (9-2) Our Eyes: The Catalano entry includes this Giant's Causeway colt who ran a 4th to Carpe Diem and Mr. Z in the G1 Kee Breeders Futurity. Won his only CD race. Two for the price of one. DC Dino Herrera Dino's Playbook: 2x win and 2x place. *** CD Race 2 continued in the next column *** Race 2 CD (continued) #4 Tapit Wicked (6-1) Our Eyes: Was an even 3 rd vs. Henry Jones and others in solid ALW. at OP and looks ready to take the step up. Jerry Shottenkirk Jerry s Playbook: Win, 2x place, EXBX 4 with 1-5. Race 3 CD #3 Coyote Moon (12-1) (turf or dirt) Our Eyes: 3/14/15 Huge finish, gigantic gallop out in short stretch mile debut. UPDATE 4/10/15: Chased modest speed winner throughout, couldn't bridge gap. Still has upside. Brian W. Spencer Brian's Playbook: Win, place bets. #11 Susan s Reward (12-1) Our Eyes: Set sail in his 1 st attempt over a dry track and just missed after a strong rally. Plenty of speed that has questionable endurance gives him a chance at putting a big number on the board and his pedigree on both sides suggests turf. Jerry Shottenkirk Jerry s Playbook: Win, 2x place, EXBX 11 w 2-9-12. #5 Gandono (15-1) Our Eyes: Son of Lemon Drop Kid (14% turf) got rained off the turf in last but showed improvement. Trainer Dave Carroll puts blinkers on today and jockey Geroux (a 20% turf rider) rides. Jeff Nahill Jeff s Playbook: 3 units to win and 6 units to place. Race 4 CD #6 Cat Burglar (4-1) Our Eyes: 4/29 Classy 5yo made a name for himself as a rising Ca. miler before running a respectable 3 rd in a pair of graded stakes and is training sharply, most recently with Bayern, for his return. Candice Hare Candice's Playbook: Win bet. *** CD R4 continued on the next page ***
Catch the buzz daily from some of the nation s best handicappers every day in your e-mail in-box! $10 daily ($15 Saturday) ~ $49.95 monthly ~ $100 three months - strong play - stronger play - strongest play Race 4 CD (continued) #7 Jessica's Star (12-1) Our Eyes: Ridiculous 22 4/5 second quarter at Kee coming off a layoff did him in, but didn't cave totally. No bounce coming given big bullet since then and he s dangerous second-off the layoff. Jeremy Plonk Jeremy's Playbook: Win and place, EXBX 7 w 3-6. Race 5 CD #5 Lord Nelson (3-1) Our Eyes: Looked best when he rallied from far back to lose photo in Bay Shore. Has faced the best and can handle these with a good trip. Jerry Shottenkirk Jerry s Playbook: Win, EX 5 with 2-6. #1 Where's the Moon (15-1) Our Eyes: This Malibu Moon 3yo ran big at Sun in a closing win over the 1-5 favorite 2/21 then was 2 nd to Firing Line in the subsequent Sun Derby. May be the long shot closing late. DC Dino Herrera Dino's Playbook: Win, 2x place and include underneath your choice in exotics. Race 6 CD #11 Divisidero (20-1) (turf only) Our Eyes: Spot play was an eye-catching debut winner at GP and then confirmed that with a good 3rd in a GIII, so even though he's got light figs he'll love the contested pace he ll get here. Brian Nadeau Brian's Playbook: WPS bet and worth using on a spread in the horizontal exotics. Race 7 CD #7 Sweet Whiskey (6-1) Our Eyes: Did everything right at GP, winning the battle, but losing the war late. Now looks to be a Lone F in Humana Distaff lacking any real pace and may catch Judy the Beauty at right time. Jeremy Plonk Jeremy's Playbook: Win bet. Race 8 CD #4 Lady Lara (7-2) (turf only) Our Eyes: 4/29 1000 Guineas also-ran looked every bit a progressive type overseas and she's shown us just as much since arriving in America. Her G2 Honey Fox win was sensational and this race looks to set up perfectly for her on paper with the main speeds drawn outside. Candice Hare Candice's Playbook: Win bet and EXBX with #13. #11 Water Hole (12-1) Our Eyes: Trainer Chad Brown puts this 4yof in a graded stakes for her U.S. debut, which says a lot. Jockey Gary Stevens (22% turf rider) should have her in the right position turning for home. Jeff Nahill Jeff s Playbook: 4 units to win and 8 units to place. #12 Kitty Wine (15-1) (turf only) Our Eyes: 3/28 Inside stalk, tons of run, no room, shuffled back, checked, no seam, found room late, with interest when free. Brian Nadeau Brian's Playbook: WPS bet, EXBX with #4 and worth using on a spread in the horizontal exotics. Race 10 CD #5 Finnegans Wake (9-2) Our Eyes: Has never had better form and his pairing with jockey Victor Espinoza has had remarkable results. In the past eight races, Espinoza has been aboard five times and the results are four wins and a 2 nd. Has shown tremendous late energy and can reel them in here. Jerry Shottenkirk Jerry s Playbook: Win. 2x place, EXBX 5 with 8-10. #10 Chocolate Ride (12-1) (turf only) Our Eyes: Has turned into a monster since stretching to 9F;s and though he has gotten two pretty soft trips, there isn't much speed here and he should wind up as part of a very manageable pace yet again. Don't sell short on this big-time class test. Brian W. Spencer Brian's Playbook: Win, place bets.
Catch the buzz daily from some of the nation s best handicappers every day in your e-mail in-box! $10 daily ($15 Saturday) ~ $49.95 monthly ~ $100 three months - strong play - stronger play - strongest play Race 12 CD #4 Guapo Man (5-1) Our Eyes: Galloping along, easily in front, aired without ever being asked. Big route pedigree in play for something bigger and better. Brian W. Spencer Brian's Playbook: Single in multi-race wagers. Our Eyes: 4/29 Lightly raced recent maiden winner looks potential lone speed and Geroux retains the mount. Candice Hare Candice's Playbook: Win bet. #1 Flash Trading (10-1) Our Eyes: Swept 4-W to the lead of solid two-turn distance race at Keeneland and reported home with something to spare. Saves ground, stalks speed and finishes the job. Jerry Shottenkirk Jerry s Playbook: Win, 2x place, EXBX 1 w 5-7-12. #13 Unbridled Juan (3-1) Our Eyes: 2/7 Heavy tote action, way too far back, thick traffic entering far turn, checked sharply, bumped around, pushed inside, split horses, ran on when free, big gallop out. UPDATE: Drilled a next-out winner for Godolphin, who is a nice prospect in his own right and he needs only to draw in to continue his ascent. Brian Nadeau Race 13 CD #4 Wild and Unbridled (12-1) Our Eyes: Hammered to 3-5 in original debut race when weather cancellation announced and horses pulled off track opening day at Keeneland. Then bet "only" to 6-5 in return when race rewritten a few days later and had troubled trip when almost looking like they were setting a race up for him. Now shows up Derby Day amongst big pools with clouded form for a sneaky barn. Jeremy Plonk Jeremy's Playbook: Solid win bet. #5 Imslopokerodriguez (15-1) Our Eyes: Certainly New York-based trained Rudy Rodriguez could have found a spot at Belmont to run this son of Take of the Cat (16% sire first time out), but he decides to run here and puts in a huge work over the track to boot. NY s Irad Ortiz rides and is 24% with Rodriguez. Jeff Nahill Jeff s Playbook: 3 units to win and 6 units to place. Follow us on Facebook at http://tiny.cc/yss6z and Twitter at http://tiny.cc/fblyf. Brian's Playbook: 2x win and 3x place, DBL with #15 in R11 and a must-use/potential single in the horizontal exotics.
Caton Bredar KENTUCKY DERBY DAY CHURCHILL DOWNS FULL-CARD SELECTIONS MAY 2, 2015 RACE (Best bets BOLD) CATON BREDAR S COMMENTS 1 10:30 am ET 2 11:01 am 3 11:31 am 4 12:04 pm 5 12:38 pm 6 1:19 pm 7 2:08 pm 8 2:59 pm 9 3:43 pm 10 4:44 pm Kentucky Derby * 11 * 6:34 pm #6 Tarpy s Surprise #1 Indycott #7 Banner Bill #8 Irish You Well #4 Tapit Wicked #3 Yockey s Warrior #7 Island Town #8 Lewys Vaporizer #4 West Village #5 Gandono #10 Supersonic #9 Reach for a Kitten #4 Rocket Time #3 Carve #6 Cat Burglar #11 Bradester #5 Lord Nelson #6 Competitive Edge #4 Hillbilly Royalty #2 Gimme Da Lute #8 Conquest Typhoon #11 Divisidero #6 A Lot #2 Wireless Future #8 Judy the Beauty #3 Dame Dorothy #7 Sweet Whiskey #1 Sweet Reason #11 Water Hole #4 Lady Lara #8 Sandiva #6 I'm Already Sexy #5 Pants On Fire #6 Gentlemen s Bet #1 C. Zee #2 Bayern #9 Seek Again #3 Umgiyo #5 Finnegans Wake #10 Chocolate Ride #8 Dortmund #15 Frosted #6 Mubtaahij #5 Danzig Moon With plenty of early speed types, race sets up well for Tarpy s Surprise, who can sit just off the leaders and run on late. Proven over track and distance and is training well. Entry for strong Maggi Moss/Tom Amoss team always tough; both Hazards of Love and Indycott get in with favorable pace scenario. Asmussen off to good start; Tapit Wicked, making 2 nd start following a two-month break, looks well spotted. Colt never runs a bad race and, with an added furlong, should sit close to speedy Yockey's Warrior and Lewys Vaporizer only speed in the field. One of many trying turf, West Village has pedigree to run on the green with trainer winning 20% first time grass; will be firing late. Gandono a live long shot returning to turf for skilled barn. Supersonic makes long awaited debut for trainer who can win 1 st out; steady workout pattern, good turf breeding. Rocket Time is lone speed and, exiting ultra tough company at Keeneland, tough to run down over his home and preferred track; 2 for 2 at 1-mile here. Carve has class and, making 3 rd start back, is sitting on a good effort. Cat Burglar enters off a long layoff but working well in CA and must be respected for Baffert. Lord Nelson thriving in his work here at Churchill; sitting on a huge effort with the 1-turn mile fitting him like a glove. Competitive Edge undefeated in three starts and one to catch but may have competition early from Gimme Da Lute and maybe Hillbilly Royalty each talented in their own right. With equal numbers of speed types and closers, Conquest Typhoon sits neatly in the middle for his third start of the year. Like that Mike Smith rides back, and colt already a graded stakes winner on turf in two countries. Late running Divisidero suffered tough trip and beat in his stakes debut only his second lifetime start. A Lot logical moving back to stakes post win vs. easier. Not as much early speed as you might expect, giving reigning champ Judy the Beauty a bigger edge. Mare makes first start since BC win with a good record off bench and enough tactical speed to be placed anywhere. Main threats from Pletcher camp; Sweet Whiskey possibly alone on lead and consistent Dame Dorothy, unbeaten at the distance and 5 for 7 lifetime. Water Hole makes her U.S. Debut for Chad Brown, had decent form in Europe, showed an affinity for the mile and gets Lasix and Stevens. Lady Lara hits hard for Mott and enters as the now horse off her GII GP win and will love all the early speed. An all or nothing type horse, BC Classic winner Bayern has his work cut out with a tremendous amount of pace pressure from all sides. Race sets up perfectly for Pants On Fire, in good form, perfect at the distance and a winner at Churchill. Rested and proven off the layoff, Seek Again can return to form early in U.S. career. Mott runner had bad luck later in year; sharp and draws ideally to sit the trip. Umgiyo is the mystery horse, may need more distance but has raced competitively and working well with stablemate/derby contender Mubtaahij. Taking an unconventional stand against American Pharoah, who either wins or, up until now, is nowhere; don t see him getting another ideal set up. Dortmund continues to win and training great. Comes out of toughest company and don t believe he needs to lead. Frosted coming back to his 2yo form. Late runners Mubtaahij and Danzig Moon look great and best suited for 10F s.
Caton Bredar KENTUCKY DERBY DAY CHURCHILL DOWNS FULL-CARD SELECTIONS MAY 2, 2015 12 7:35 pm 13 8:05 pm #4 Guapo Man #12 Comfort #2 Quality Bird #8 California Coast #6 Bent On Bourbon #5 Imslopokerodriguez #1 Hey Bro #9 Coaches Challenge Guapo Man won impressively in his first try around two turns ands seems to stand out. Comfort exits graded stakes and fits well with the rest, as does fellow Triple Crown nominee Quality Bird. Bent on Bourbon was just beaten on the wire last out, if his form from Kee carries over he ll be ultra tough. First timers Imslopokerodriguz and Coaches Challenge showing good works for barns that can win in these spots.
2015 KENTUCKY DERBY SELECTIONS GRID SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015 CHURCHILL DOWNS Jeremy Plonk 8 Dortmund 10 Firing Line 18 Amer. Pharoah 2 Carpe Diem Caton Bredar 8 Dortmund 15 Frosted 6 Mubtaahij 5 Danzig Moon Brian Nadeau 15 Frosted 10 Firing Line 18 Amer. Pharoah 8 Dortmund Brian W. Spencer 18 Amer. Pharoah 9 Bolo 8 Dortmund 6 Mubtaahij Jerry Shottenkirk 8 Dortmund 18 Amer. Pharoah 10 Firing Line 20 Far Right Terry Turrell 18 Amer. Pharoah 10 Firing Line 6 Mubtaahij 19 Upstart Jeff Nahill 10 Firing Line 18 Amer. Pharoah 8 Dortmund 15 Frosted Candice Hare 8 Dortmund 19 Upstart 7 El Kabeir 5 Danzig Moon HPNOW Kentucky Derby Consensus (7-5-3-1 points system) 8 Dortmund (35) 18 American Pharoah (30) 10 Firing Line (25) 15- Frosted (13) OUR EYES YOUR PRIZE Save $ on BUZZ Subscriptions just $49.95 per month or $100 for 3 months! Visit Horseplayernow.com right NOW.
KENTUCKY DERBY 141 PACE ANALYSIS By Jeremy Plonk SPEED PRESS MIDPACK CLOSERS 10-Firing Line 3-Materiality 8-Dortmund 17-Mr. Z 1-Ocho Ocho Ocho 18-American Pharoah 15-Frosted 19-Upstart 2-Carpe Diem 9-Bolo 13-Itsaknockout 6-Mubtaahij 4-Tencendur 12-International Star 5-Danzig Moon 7-El Kabeir 20-Far Right 14-Keen Ice 16-War Story 22-Tale of Verve (ae) 21-Frammento Kentucky Derby 141 Pace Analysis: Speed Category: Gary Stevens has won the Derby on the front with Winning Colors, and Firing Line comes in fresh off 6 weeks break and the Hall of Famer may sense no one wants the front. Dortmund s natural speed puts his big head into the race each time. Materiality will flash more now drawn inside in post 3. Look for cheap speed in this Derby potentially to come from Mr. Z and Ocho Ocho Ocho, who really have no chance otherwise and inexperienced pilots. Press Category: Here s where it gets crazy. Everyone wants to be here. Each has shown an ability to make the lead vs. lesser and it s really about jockey intent on who moves up closer and sooner, and who stays patient and waits. How quickly this clan of 6-7 starts to press the quality horses up front will be the key to whether we have a fast or manageable pace. It s a pretty patient group of riders in that flight, so my take is that they will wait. Midpack Category: These runners are going to be behind a fleet of pressers and need to begin the weave through traffic going into the far turn. International Star has shown a nice ability to do this among this group. Some of these will be in chase and tire mode, too. Closers: My guess is Calvin Borel makes a left-hand turn at the start with El Kabeir, and War Story s gate issues continue on a day when gate issues are exacerbated. Far Right, Keen Ice and Frammento know only one style and they ll wait in hopes of a pace meltdown. Analysis: This Derby clearly showcases its best horses in the first two flights, and the lack of a really incinerating cheap speed horse means the manageable tempo and smart riders should keep the balance of power in the front of the pack. As always, the late movers are great exotics inclusions, but Derby 141 should be won in the front half of the pack going down the backstretch.
BRIAN NADEAU S KENTUCKY DERBY STRATEGY RACE 11 KENTUCKY DERBY SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015 CHURCHILL DOWNS It s rare that you can truthfully say you REALLY like a horse in the Kentucky Derby, but that is the case with me this year, as I think #15 FROSTED gets all the best of it Saturday. He enters off a sharp win in the GI Wood, has the right midpack stalking style in a race loaded with pace and should have another forward move in him. So I ll be looking to really maximize my opinion and go for a home run in the trifecta, as there are several viable bombs that could run in the number underneath. The Derby is also a race where you have to have a strong feeling on a few you don t like and for me, the two I dislike the most are #2 CARPE DIEM AND #3 MATERIALITY, who are seriously flawed in my opinion, and I said that even before they drew poorly down inside. I ll also toss #6 MUBTAAHIJ, as it s a HUGE ask and he will be an underlay off a suspect UAE Derby win. So, those three will not be on any of my tickets. I m not stubborn enough to toss #18 AMERICAN PHAROAH, but I also don t think he has to win either, so that s where I think I can get some big value underneath. He ll be used on the backup win end of my trifectas, along with #10 FIRING LINE, and they ll be my only two savers on top. However, I ll also key #8 DORTMUND and #14 KEEN ICE with these two, as the former is rock solid and the latter is my scratch your head, did he really run 2 nd? play this year. As for the rest underneath, without going into great detail (and in order of preference) I ll use these; #12 INTERNATIONAL STAR, #20 FAR RIGHT, #5 DANZIG MOON, #7 EL KABEIR and #9 BOLO. So here s how it all breaks down: 15 with 10-18-8-14 with 10-18-8-14-12-20-5-7-9 = $16 on a $0.50 play 15 with 10-18-8-14-12-20-5-7-9 with 10-18-8-14 = $16 on a $0.50 play 10-18 with 15 with 10-18-8-14-12-20-5-7-9 = $8 on a $0.50 play 10-18 with 10-18-8-14-12-20-5-7-9 with 15 = $8 on a $0.50 play
JEREMY PLONK S TRIFECTA PLAYS SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015 CHURCHILL DOWNS Race # TRIFECTA CONTENDERS 1 Top Slot Key # 5 Coastline Underneath Additions # 8 Irish You Well JEREMY PLONK S COMMENTS Bad rides in each of his last 2 and Casse calls on patience Leparoux, ++. Classy sort did ALL the dirty work vs. lone speed Protonico at Kee. The Ticket: 5-8-ALL and 5-ALL-8 = $8 for each $.50 play. Race # TRIFECTA CONTENDERS 6 Top Slot Key #6 A Lot Underneath Additions #8 Conquest Typhoon #11 Divisidero JEREMY PLONK S COMMENTS Scratched from Keeneland bog to aim for this; Mott undercard maestro. Consistent at 2 and 3, he shows up for work every time. Useful under. Came to hand VERY quickly at Gulfstream for patient barn; big upside. The Ticket: 6 with 8,11 with ALL = $12 for each $.50 play. Race # TRIFECTA CONTENDERS 8 Top 2 Slots Key #3 Tepin Trifecta Additions #5 Coffee Clique #6 I m Already Sexy #8 Sandiva JEREMY PLONK S COMMENTS Really caught my eye training when she outworked Derby hope Danzig Moon in company. Sitting on a big race. Needed her last race; has a penchant big-race undercard performances. When she s on, she s on not most consistent, but very dangerous I ve underrated her a few times and she s finally got my attention. The Ticket: 3 with 5,6,8 with ALL = $16.50 for each $.50 play. And also 5,6,8 with 3 with ALL = $16.50 for each $.50 play.
JEREMY PLONK S TRIFECTA PLAYS KENTUCKY DERBY TRIFECTA PLAY Race # 11 TRIFECTA CONTENDERS Top Slot Key #8 Dortmund 2 nd Slot Additions #18 American Pharoah #2 Carpe Diem #5 Danzig Moon #9 Bolo #10 Firing Line #15 Frosted #14 Keen Ice #20 Far Right #12 International Star 3 rd Slot Keys #18 American Pharoah #2 Carpe Diem JEREMY PLONK S COMMENTS San Felipe best 3YO race run in US this year and he s still on point. If he avoids adversity, will be tough to keep off the ticket. Consistent, versatile style and perfect campaign. Good enough? One of the few progressive types to rise from ALW ranks in 2015. Every reason to bounce in SA Derby & did; looks SHARP since. Fresh, fast and has Hall of Fame pilot; class proven vs. Dortmund. With clear airway, was a different animal in Wood; still has upside. Could be this year s Commanding Curve/Golden Soul for exotics. Smith orchestrated Giacomo, so he knows longshot pace meltdown. Deft little horse gets in and out of traffic athletically; helps in Derby. You need the price 2 nd for good payoff behind Dortmund, come back with the logical horses in the 3 rd spot. A 1 st /3 rd split = value in Derby. The Ticket:8 with 18,2,5,9,10,15,14,20,12 with 18,2 = $8 for each $.50 play. 2 nd ticket: 8 with ALL with 18,2 = $18 for each $.50 play $26 total investment gives you $1 tri with the most respected horses in 2 nd and a $.50 backup tri with all others 2 nd. Bigger budget players note: I will be making a superfecta play not for the faint of heart in this year s Derby applying a similar concept. It s a $224 ticket based on the minimum $1 wager, but with five and six-figure payouts the norm in the Derby super, and a strong opinion on top, it s a leap I m going to take. Top: 8-DORTMUND 2 nd : 2-CARPE DIEM, 18-AMERICAN PHAROAH, 5-DANZIG MOON, 9-BOLO, 10-FIRING LINE, 14-KEEN ICE, 15-FROSTED, 12-INTERNATIONAL STAR, 20-FAR RIGHT 3 rd : 2-CARPE DIEM, 18-AMERICAN PHAROAH, 9-BOLO, 10-FIRING LINE 4 th : 2-CARPE DIEM, 18-AMERICAN PHAROAH, 5-DANZIG MOON, 9-BOLO, 10-FIRING LINE, 14-KEEN ICE, 15-FROSTED, 12-INTERNATIONAL STAR, 20-FAR RIGHT
TEAM CONSENSUS PICK 4 PLAYS SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015 CHURCHILL DOWNS Race PICK 4 CONTENDERS COMMENTS - HANDICAPPER 2 #1a Tough Customer Solid 4 th in Kee GI at 2 in last and won debut here off works. DCD. #4 Tapit Wicked Decent 3 rd off the layoff at OP and looks poised to break through. JS. #3 Yockey s Warrior Regressed a bit at Kee but may be a Lone F here off that run. HPN. 3 4 5 #3 Coyote Moon #11 Susan s Reward #5 Gandono #4 West Village #6 Cat Burglar #7 Jessica s Star #4 Rocket Time #5 Lord Nelson #1 Where s the Moon #6 Competitive Edge Giant finish two-back and should get more pace help than last. BWS. Sharp closes on dirt, is bred for this and should get a ton of pace. JS. Modest debut but improved in last and adds blinks on turf return. JN. Closer ran well on dirt, is bred for this and Catalano is 20% turf. CB Classy returnee has trained well for this and is spotted to score. CH. Wild Kee speed and bullet says he s in raging form and may wire. JP. Likely lone speed loves CD and is 2-for-2 at the distance as well. CB Was best after a wild trip at Aqu and gets a ton of speed up front. JS. Solid Sun closes and gets a ton of speed to close into in the lane. DCD. 3-for-3 GI winner looked great in comeback and will trip out. HPN. Race 2-5 Pick Four Analysis & Cost: We ve got a wide open sequence to start the Pk4 festivities and spreading seems like the right move, especially since the 3 rd could go any number of ways. If you re on a budget, then singling on the end is never a bad idea and LORD NELSON should be primed in a speedy race with an extra furlong to work with, plus he won t even be the favorite. Looking to use a few extras? Give a look to #5 DEFONDO and #7 ISLAND TOWN (R2), #10 SUPERSONIC (R3) and #3 CARVE (R4), especially if Supersonic proves live in the doubles from Race 2-3. The ticket: 1a-4-3 with 3-11-5-4 with 6-7-4 with 5-1-6 = $54 for a $0.50 play
TEAM CONSENSUS PICK 4 PLAYS SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015 CHURCHILL DOWNS Race PICK 4 CONTENDERS COMMENTS - HANDICAPPER 4 #6 Cat Burglar Classy returnee has trained well for this and is spotted to score. CH. #7 Jessica s Star Wild Kee speed and bullet says he s in raging form and may wire. JP. #4 Rocket Time Likely lone speed loves CD and is 2-for-2 at the distance as well. CB 5 6 7 #5 Lord Nelson #1 Where s the Moon #6 Competitive Edge #11 Divisidero #8 Conquest Typhoon #6 A Lot #7 Sweet Whiskey #8 Judy the Beauty Was best after a wild trip at Aqu and gets a ton of speed up front. JS. Solid Sun closes and gets a ton of speed to close into in the lane. DCD. 3-for-3 GI winner looked great in comeback and will trip out. HPN. Closer confirmed debut W in GIII and gets a ton of speed up front. BN. The class drew well and should be in the right spot off the turn. HPN. Rapidly improving, can sit close and get first run on the speed. HPN. Lone F catches the chalk at the right time and may forget to stop. JP. Chalk hits hard but was inconspicuous by her absence at Kee. HPN. Race 4-7 Pick Four Analysis & Cost: This could be the most formful Pk4 of the quartet, as there s no doubt JUDY THE BEAUTY is a legit oddson favorite in the last leg, so we don t want to go too deep and run the risk of it chalking out and not getting a fair return on a big investment. The beauty of this play is that we have a 20-1 in DIVISIDERO on top in the 6 th, which would really blow things up, not to mention SWEET WHISKEY on top in the last would knock out a lot of budget players too. Potential add-ons would include #3 CARVE (R4) and definitely #1 LUCK OF THE KITTEN (R6), but we are thinking/hoping that classy runner gets fried by the expected hot pace. The ticket: 6-7-4 with 5-1-6 with 11-8-6 with 7-8 = $27 for a $0.50 play
TEAM CONSENSUS PICK 4 PLAYS 8 SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015 CHURCHILL DOWNS Race PICK 4 CONTENDERS COMMENTS - HANDICAPPER #4 Lady Lara #11 Water Hole #12 Kitty Wine #5 Coffee Clique #3 Tepin #8 Sandiva 9 10 11 #2 Bayern #4 Private Zone #5 Pants On Fire #5 Finnegans Wake #10 Chocolate Ride #9 Seek Again #8 Dortmund #18 Amer. Pharoah #10 Firing Line #15 Frosted Progressing miss was a star in GII at GP and gets set up again. CN. Euro import ambitiously spotted by Brown, a very good sign. JN. Longshot had a brutal trip at GP behind Lara but has upside. BN. The class won this last year and got her prep out of the way. HPN. Impressed I local training and may be poised for a lifetime best. JP Game miss just missed to Lara at GP and is tough to omit. HPN BC hero has trained lights out and is right at home at 7F s. HPN. Confirmed sprinter got his prep and drew perfectly today. HPN CD winner loves a long sprint and gets a ton of speed to track. CB Closer has never been better and is aces when teamed with VE. JS. Been brilliant at 9F s and gets a major race flow edge today. BWS. Classy returnee is training great and is due for some good luck. CB. Undefeated, wants to beat you and can be placed anywhere. HPN. Potential freak drew well and showed a rating gear in last. HPN. Gave Dortmund a scare and is fresh off the road less traveled. HPN. The best stalker finally delivered at Aqu and will get set up. BN. Race 8-11 Pick Four Analysis & Cost: The biggest Pk4 of the day should have a pool well in excess of $2 million, so we are spreading deep and playing a bit outside our budget, which is actually recommended this weekend because of the giant pools and potential payoffs. The first leg looks wide, wide open and our team has three BUZZ runners that aren t the favorites, so we re spreading deep in the hopes of landing a price. Anyone on a budget should single BAYERN, but with an inside post, an iffy foot and a ton of speed around him, he doesn t have to win, and if he loses a lot of small tickets will hit the floor. The Derby is the Derby, so you re guess is as good as ours, but we feel like we have the right four and anyone else would be a stretch. There aren t too many we d want to use that we didn t already in this sequence, but #8 STEPHANIE S KITTEN and #11 SLUMBER both come to mind in R10. The ticket: 4-11-12-5-3-8 with 2-4-5 with 5-10-9 with 8-18-10-15 = $108 for a $0.50 play
TEAM CONSENSUS PICK 4 PLAYS SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015 CHURCHILL DOWNS Race PICK 4 CONTENDERS COMMENTS - HANDICAPPER 10 #5 Finnegans Wake Closer has never been better and is aces when teamed with VE. JS. #10 Chocolate Ride Been brilliant at 9F s and gets a major race flow edge today. BWS. #9 Seek Again Classy returnee is training great and is due for some good luck. CB. 11 12 13 #8 Dortmund #18 Amer. Pharoah #10 Firing Line #15 Frosted #4 Guapo Man #1Flash Trading #13 Unbridled Juan #4 Wild and Unbridled #5 Imslopokerodrguez #6 Bent On Bourbon Undefeated, wants to beat you and can be placed anywhere. HPN. Potential freak drew well and showed a rating gear in last. HPN. Gave Dortmund a scare and is fresh off the road less traveled. HPN. The best stalker finally delivered at Aqu and will get set up. BN. Romped on the stretchout at OP and may get loose here. BWS/CH. Visually impressive Kee win and drew well on the rise today. JS. Giant talent beat a good one last time and hits hard if he s in. BN. Hug e tote action at Kee and meek effort says this is the spot. JP. NY firster has worked well and goes for very crafty connections. JN. Just missed at Kee and a slight move forward should win this. CB Race 10-13 Pick Four Analysis & Cost: The most overlooked Pk4 of the year really tests the bankroll and the resolve, but if you re still afloat it offers another opportunity to maximize an opinion you might have in the world s hardest horse race to handicap. Our group loves GUAPO MAN in the 11 th, so he s a viable single if you re feeling bold or are on a budget (or have had a rough day!), but FLASH TRADING did impress in his dirt debut and will be a price. Keep in mind that UNBRIDLED JUAN is on the AE list, so if he doesn t draw in this play is down to $36. Add-ons are scant, so aside from #8 STEPHANIE S KITTEN and #11 SLUMBER (R10) who we mentioned above, you might want to look at firsters #7 CAT RIDE and #9 COAHCES CHALLENGE (in the finale), as they d be scary if you left them out and they open live on the board. The ticket: 5-10-9 with 8-18-10-15 with 4-1-13 with 4-5-6 = $54 for a $0.50 play