THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVII Issue 12 October 2, 2017 $12.00 GREEN SHEET NFL TOTALS ARE 10-5 TOUGH ISSUE #11 ENDS STRONG 3-WEEK RUN 2017-18 GREEN SHEET NFL WEEK 5 & NCAA WEEK 6 After three strong Green Sheet issues in a row, Issue #11 was a clunker with Keys just 4-8 on the Monday release lines though anyone that actually played the games during the week would have done slightly better on the common numbers. Rating 3, 4, & 5 Keys are still 17-10 on the season calling our NCAA Rating 5 & 4 picks losses last week, though the common spread would grade those picks as a push and win. Counting the preseason issues our NFL Totals are now 10-5 on the season for good results and both our Overreaction and Misleading Final picks won last week. 4th Quarter Covers NCAA Week 5 Pittsburgh (-20) 42, Rice 10: Taking some frustration out after a disappointing start to the season Pittsburgh opened up a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and made it 28-0 at halftime. Rice regrouped in the second half with defensive stops and two scoring drives to pull within the spread through three quarters, trailing 28-10. The Panthers would prevail however scoring two touchdowns in the fourth quarter while Rice had a pair of fourth quarter interceptions in Pittsburgh territory. South Florida (-21½) 61, East Carolina 31: A three-touchdown underdog that scores in the 30s has to feel pretty good about its chances to cover and early on East Carolina traded punches with the undefeated Bulls, trailing just 31-24 at halftime even with allowing a long interception return touchdown. Deep into the third quarter it was still a seven-point game but South Florida scored 17 points in about five minutes of game clock with the second two scores coming on drives of just seven and 33 yards. The Bulls added another late score to make for a rather misleading 30-point final margin and road favorite cover. NC State (-14) 33, Syracuse 25: In what some figured could be a letdown game NC State took control early against Syracuse with a 26-7 edge at halftime. The Orange picked up 10 points in the third quarter however to get back in the game before NC State completed a 10-play touchdown drive with about 10 minutes to go, sitting just past the favorite spread with a 16-point lead. Syracuse opted to go for it on 4th-and-10 from the NC State 15 and failed but pinned deep the Wolfpack were forced to punt and a strong return set-up the Orange for a 33-yard touchdown drive to climb within the spread with just fewer than five minutes remaining. The Orange got the two-conversion to make it a one-score game but the on-side kick failed and NC State was able to move the chains enough to run out the clock. Houston (-10½) 20, Temple 13: The Cougars led 20-0 early in the third quarter but Temple proved resilient. The Owls added a field goal and then got a big defensive stop to force a punt, eventually delivering an 85-yard touchdown drive to close to within 10 points and just within the underdog spread early in the fourth quarter. Temple added another field goal and eventually had the ball back near midfield but the final two Temple drives ended on downs and then with a late interception. Florida State (-7½) 26, Wake Forest 19: The Seminoles lost on the opening and closing number but much of the week -7 was the price. At no point in the game until the final minute did Florida State lead by seven however as many on the underdog Demon Deacons left with a tough-luck push with Wake Forest looking like the superior squad most of the way. Wake Forest led 19-16 early in the fourth quarter before Florida State managed a tying field goal. A marginal Wake Forest punt with the Demon Deacons pinned deep gave the Seminoles great field position heading into the final minute and on 1st down the James Blackman hit Auden Tate for a 40-yard touchdown. Wake Forest made things interesting late reaching the Florida State 38-yardline in the final seconds but Florida State escaped and a missed extra-point for Wake Forest in the second quarter wound up proving to be an important play relative to the number as well. Wisconsin (-16) 33, Northwestern 24: The Badgers were short of the spread up 21-10 through three quarters, recovering from a sloppy first half. The Badgers added a field goal in the third quarter and then returned an interception for a touchdown to suddenly slip past the favorite spread with a 31-10 advantage. Wisconsin s defense let up in the final minutes as the Wildcats put together back-to-back touchdown drives and actually had the ball back down just seven in the final minute. The Wildcats wound up being caught with a sack in the end zone for a safety that effectively ended the game but the late charge was enough for the underdog cover. Navy (-7½) 31, Tulsa 21: The home underdog Hurricane took a 14-0 lead after the first quarter but Navy took over from there, getting back in front 17-14 late in the third quarter and getting past the spread early in the fourth quarter, eventually scoring 31 consecutive points. Tulsa would finally answer with seven minutes to go to get back within 10 but the road favorite cover held as Navy stopped Tulsa on fourth down in Navy territory late in the game. Continue at www.vegasinsider.com... Between the Lines... Injuries are a big storyline this week in the NFL and as of Monday only 10 of 14 games for Week 5 have lines posted including the Sunday and Monday night games being absent. Of the league s top 12 quarterbacks based on QB Rating from 2016, five might not play this week with Ryan Tannehill out, Andrew Luck and Sam Bradford likely still out, and Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota question marks. Jacoby Brissett and Case Keenum have proven adequate replacements so far even if not while delivering winning results however Jay Cutler s solid debut in Week 2 has been quickly forgotten for the Dolphins. E.J. Manuel and Matt Cassel could need to play important roles on teams that expected to be AFC contenders in the coming weeks. Deshaun Watson appears to be the answer in Houston after back-to-back big games but two of his next three starts will be against the Chiefs and the Seahawks and it seems like anyone could have big numbers against the New England defense this season as the excitement in Houston might be premature. It is hard to blame Texans fans who have spent the last decade watching a team with a lot of quality pieces but no answer at quarterback. The Texans are also looking good if the AFC South race gets down to tiebreaker #9 after scoring 57 points to beat the Titans by 43 last week. That was the most points scored in the NFL since Seattle scored 58 in 2012, forcing eight turnovers against John Skelton and Ryan Lindley in Russell Wilson s rookie season. The Rams currently have the best scoring differential in the NFL, followed closely by the Chiefs who are still to play in Week 4. If the Chiefs would lose Monday the best scoring differential in the AFC would belong to the Jacksonville Jaguars through four weeks. There are four 2-2 teams with a scoring differential of -17 or worse while the 0-4 Chargers are at just -21. A quarter of the way through the season the Bills, Jaguars, Lions, and Rams are leading divisions and right now the Patriots and Cowboys would not make the playoffs along with half of the 2016-17 postseason field. USC was the only major chip falling in the national college football landscape last week but the Trojans have a strong enough schedule that as a potential 12-1 Pac-12 champion they will have a very strong playoff case. USC hasn t looked like a team capable of running the table but they ll still be a solid favorite in every game outside of a trip to South Bend or potentially the Pac-12 title game. USC is still a heavy favorite to be playing in that championship as the South division looks like a very mediocre group of teams this season and USC doesn t play Washington or Oregon. Washington, along with Penn State and Wisconsin continue to climb the rankings as top 10 undefeated teams however they have done so with three of the weaker power 5 schedules in the nation, rated 66th or worse nationally. Oklahoma does have the big win over the Buckeyes but also has a schedule that ranks 75th nationally as there is a lot more to find out about the teams that might have a chance to threaten the eventual SEC and ACC champions. Most rightfully assume that means Alabama and Clemson again but the SEC East and ACC Coastal could provide more of a threat this season with Georgia certainly impressing so far with one of the best resumes in the country while Miami will have a chance to make a statement this week against Florida State. Miami still has Virginia Tech and Notre Dame on the November schedule but both games are at home. Georgia will play Florida and Auburn away from home in the coming weeks before they even think about lining up with Alabama in Atlanta. Alabama looks untouchable but perhaps it is this year s depth that has been remarkable as the reserve units would likely be SEC contenders, dominating starters in the second halves the past two weeks on Vanderbilt and Mississippi teams that shouldn t wind up with FCS competition statistics against the Tide. Don t lock up the championship just yet however as depth isn t as important with five weeks to prepare and get healthy for a nationally televised game that will have numerous lengthy commercial breaks in the College Football Playoff. Best of Luck and on to this week s slate This version of the Green Sheet is prepared exclusively for www.vegasinsider.com UNAUTHORIZED DUPLICATION, REPRODUCTION, TRANSFER, OR PUBLIC POSTING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. VIOLATORS WILL FACE AN IMMEDIATE TERMINATION OF THEIR SUBSCRIPTION.
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 NOTRE DAME (-17) over North Carolina RATING 4 SMU (+5½) over Houston RATING 3 WASHINGTON STATE (+2½) over Oregon RATING 2 EASTERN MICHIGAN (+13½) over Toledo RATING 2 UT-SAN ANTONIO (-12½) over Southern Miss RATING 1 NORTHWESTERN (+14) over Penn State RATING 1 MARSHALL (-14½) over Charlotte ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change THURSDAY, OCTOBER 5, 2017 Louisville (-4) NC STATE At this point it looks like Clemson and everyone else in the ACC but this battle could determine the runner up in the Atlantic and a second major bowl slot out of this division is a possibility. NC State will still get a chance to host Clemson in November but in the ACC picture that game won t matter unless the Wolfpack win this game. Last season Louisville won 54-13 with a huge passing game from Lamar Jackson. Louisville has scored 40 points per game while posting 5.9 yards per rush this season but turnovers have been an issue. NC State has played a slightly stronger overall schedule but the track record at home for the Wolfpack is suspect following back-to-back big games and now facing another dangerous foe with this spread shifting more than two touchdowns from a year ago. LOUISVILLE BY 6 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2017 Memphis (-13½) CONNECTICUT 6:00 PM Since slipping by FCS Holy Cross in August Connecticut has dropped three in a row and a program that has featured a respectable defense in recent years has allowed 128 points in those losses, now 0-4 ATS on the season as well. Memphis was quietly 3-0 heading into their AAC opener but thoughts of the Tigers as a contender in the conference vanished quickly as UCF put up over 600 yards in a rout. Riley Ferguson had four turnovers last week and it isn t clear what the marquee win over UCLA is really worth. These teams haven t met since 2014 and the host has won in a blowout in the past two meetings. The Huskies have scored some points the past two weeks but Randy Edsall appears to have a serious rebuild on his hands and a big deficit in the ground game looks likely. MEMPHIS BY 17 Boise State (-8) BYU 9:15 PM Before the season started both of these former conference foes were on the shortlist of top Group of Five threats. Neither is remotely in that conversation at this point with a combined six losses. BYU had seven turnovers last week to fall at Utah State, now 0-5 ATS with just 63 points scored as three quarterbacks have combined for 10 interceptions. Boise State s 2-2 start deserves some respect as the overtime loss at Washington State looks pretty impressive at this point and Troy and New Mexico both turned in big wins last week looking like quality teams. Brett Rypien should be back at full strength this week but the issues for the Broncos have been in the running game, posting 3.3 yards per rush with backup quarterback Montell Cozart the team s toprusher. BYU s run defense has been solid through a difficult schedule and this could be a tight game. BOISE STATE BY 6 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2017 IOWA (-18) Illinois Iowa compiled three decent wins to start the season but in Big Ten play the Hawkeyes have fallen short in back-to-back tight games. The opportunity to turn the season around is there starting with a favorable matchup this week. A 2-0 start for Illinois has been evened out with lopsided losses and the wins for the Illini have diminished in value. Last season Iowa won 28-0 in this matchup in Champaign with Illinois held to fewer than 200 yards. In regulation Iowa has averaged just 24 points per game as this is a steep number for a limited offense but Illinois is gaining 3.2 yards per rush and has six interceptions in the passing game already. IOWA BY 21 Notre Dame (-17) NORTH CAROLINA An injury-plagued Tar Heels team fell to 1-4 last week and 0-3 in ACC play. Chazz Surratt has decent numbers in the passing game and the schedule has been among the toughest faced in the nation. This is a marquee home game for the Heels but this is an Irish team that has impressed through a tough schedule with the only loss a toss-up game with Georgia. Brandon Wimbush hasn t lived up to the hype at quarterback but Notre Dame is posting 7.1 yards per rush and the Tar Heels were soundly beat on the ground last week vs. Georgia Tech with over 400 yards allowed. A good focused effort from the Tar Heels just might not be enough vs. an Irish team that has top 10 caliber potential. ND BY 31 Western Michigan (-6½) BUFFALO The Bulls have surpassed last season s win count at 3-2 and actually sit as one of a few 5-0 ATS teams on the season. That run will be tested against the 2016 MAC champions this week for an ambitious homecoming date. The Broncos impressed vs. USC in the opener and have won three in a row after starting 0-2, getting a blowout win against Ball State last week, though with some turnover help. Western Michigan hasn t won a road game this season but the offense has been capable replacing some key players from last season s undefeated squad. Buffalo has allowed only 18 points per game while the offense offers a consistent rushing attack with backup quarterback Drew Anderson holding his own so far. WESTERN MICHIGAN BY 4 TOLEDO (-13½) Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan is 2-2 but not far from 4-0 with a double-overtime loss and last week s four-point miss at Kentucky. The Eagles are one of the nation s worst rushing teams but the passing game has been productive and the defense has been very tough, including allowing just 3.5 yards per rush. Toledo won 35-20 last season in Ypsilanti with clear edges and this will be homecoming for the Rockets. Toledo was off last week following a 22-point loss to Miami that was much closer than the final most of the way. The 3-0 start for Toledo deserves some scrutiny however as narrow wins over Nevada and Tulsa are not carrying much weight. Logan Woodside has great numbers leading the Rockets but the running game has disappointed despite the soft schedule and Eastern Michigan looks like a threat. TOLEDO BY 4 OHIO (-12) Central Michigan 1:00 PM The Bobcats are on pace to repeat at MAC East champions with a 4-1 start this season though many of the toughest conference tests are still to come. The Bobcats have won in wild finishes the past two weeks with a doubleovertime game and a 58-50 result last week, though the lead was never seriously threatened. As most Frank Solich squads do, Ohio runs the ball well with 4.9 yards per rush. Central Michigan has dropped three in a row with two road games vs. ACC teams in that difficult run. Shane Morris already has eight interceptions and the Chippewas have had marginal rushing numbers as a season of decline offensively looks likely. OHIO BY 17 AKRON (-8) Ball State The absence of Riley Neal and James Gilbert didn t show up in the loss to Western Kentucky, a game Ball State led with fewer than two minutes remaining, but last week the Cardinals were clobbered at Western Michigan with a pair of costly turnovers by the replacements. Facing a difficult schedule in a 1-3 start Akron delivered a narrow road win last week and now catches Ball State in a third consecutive road game. Akron won by 10 in Muncie last season and while the numbers are underwhelming at this point, senior quarterback Thomas Woodson has had to face Penn State, Iowa State, and Troy for a tough first half schedule as the offense looked much more effective last week in MAC play. AKRON BY 14 MIAMI, OH (-14½) Bowling Green The production was nearly even for Bowling Green last week despite another loss and failed cover. The Redhawks have underachieved so far this season following last season s great late run. This price might be steep for Miami coming off the Notre Dame game last week. MIAMI BY 13 Marshall (-14½) CHARLOTTE 5:00 PM Sitting at 0-4 Charlotte turned in a nice performance last week but a 26-7 edge just before halftime became 26-14 and Florida International turned in a fourth quarter comeback for a 30-29 result. That will leave a demoralized 49ers squad now hosting a much more difficult matchup. Marshall is 3-1 with the lone loss a respectable showing at NC State as the Herd appears back in a big way this season as a Conference USA contender. This will be a second straight road game following a big win in Cincinnati. The offensive numbers aren t overwhelming for Marshall but the defense has been very solid. Charlotte actually beat Marshall 27-24 last season which should help to keep the road favorite focused this week. MARSHALL BY 24 Central Florida (-17) CINCINNATI South Florida was expected to dominate the AAC this season but neighbors to the northeast have made the most impressive first month showing with UCF 3-0 with every win by at least 27 points including impressive wins over Maryland and Memphis. Scott Frost looks like a lock to be hired in Lincoln this winter and it will be interesting to see how the team handles success in the coming weeks as a heavy favorite in most matchups. Cincinnati has struggled in recent years but the Bearcats are still a prominent program in this conference and the 2-3 start has been through a tough schedule. Run defense paints a huge disparity between these teams. UCF BY 21 Georgia State (-2) COASTAL CAROLINA 5:30 PM Georgia State s game with Memphis was bumped last week for an unexpected week off ahead of this game. The Panthers are coming off a shutout win over Charlotte, though that final score was a bit misleading. After winning its debut Coastal Carolina has lost three in a row but the two FBS losses were competitive games, the lone blowout loss came against FCS Western Illinois. Turnovers have been a big problem for the Chanticleers but Georgia State has brutal offensive numbers this season. The host might have an edge showing some late fight in games. COASTAL BY 3
Penn State (-14) NORTHWESTERN Heavy favorites that get dominated on the ground don t fare well generally but Penn State managed to win 45-14 last week despite being out-rushed 177-39 with Heisman candidate Saquon Barkley held to 2.8 yards per carry. Penn State scored on an opening kickoff return touchdown and a first quarter fumble return touchdown as Penn State won by 29 despite only an 18 yard advantage for the game. The Lions had a similar puzzling box score in their win vs. Pittsburgh and the so far the schedule has been rather soft as this top 10 team hasn t proven much. Northwestern is a dangerous 2-2 team as the losses came on the road against quality teams. Penn State struggled in its only other road game and while Northwestern lacks a great home field edge, this is a good defense with veteran leaders on offense. PSU BY 6 Temple (-3) EAST CAROLINA East Carolina played much closer with undefeated South Florida than the 30- point final margin suggested, actually a one-score game with 17 minutes to go. Turnovers have been an issue for a team that has already attempted 215 passes. Temple fell way behind early last week but actually had the ball with a chance to tie late vs. Houston. The Owls are 2-3 with the losses all coming against quality teams but it is clear the Owls are in a step-back season following last season s AAC title. Last season Temple won 37-10 in this matchup holding the Pirates to just 225 yards. Both teams have awful run defense numbers through difficult schedules and trusting the home underdog in a battle of mistake-prone offenses makes some senses. ECU BY 3 VIRGINIA (-2½) Duke 11:20 AM The perfect start for Duke didn t hold up in a big Friday night game hosting Miami, although the 31-6 final was quite misleading as the statistics weren t far apart. This looms as a dangerous game with Virginia rested and coming off back-to-back dominant performances. The Cavaliers won 34-20 at Duke last season although six turnovers from the Blue Devils skewed the result as Daniel Jones will have a shot at redemption after his five interception game a year ago. Kurt Benkert has some of the best passing numbers in the ACC for Virginia and with both teams very good defending the run so far the more prolific passer might have the edge. VIRGINIA BY 10 SYRACUSE (-4½) Pittsburgh 11:30 AM The Panthers got in the win column last week following an ugly three-game slide through difficult matchups. Matching the success of the past two seasons looks unlikely for this group but the next four weeks will determine that path. Syracuse is on its own two-game slide with road losses vs. LSU and NC State in relatively competitive games. Eric Dungey has already thrown for over 1,400 yards but he is also the team s leading rusher with the ground game a struggle for the Orange. Pittsburgh has played one of the nation s toughest schedules and could be an undervalued squad with some decent opportunities in the coming weeks. PITTSBURGH BY 3 Virginia Tech (-16½) BOSTON COLLEGE 6:15 PM Boston College has disappointing defensive numbers especially against the run but few teams have played a more difficult schedule as 2-3 through this slate is a decent showing for the Eagles. There wasn t much weight in the 4-0 start for Virginia Tech and the Hokies were exposed in last week s big game with Clemson. While the statistics were similar, the Hokies trailed 24-3 before adding two fourth quarter scores. After losing 49-0 early last season in this matchup this should be a motivated Eagles team that has played close in the recent home meetings of this series including an outright upset in 2013. Matching last week s enthusiasm will be difficult for Virginia Tech in a potentially dangerous game. VIRGINIA TECH BY 10 APPALACHIAN STATE (-10½) New Mexico State The Mountaineers have failed in both shots vs. major conference teams but they performed better vs. Georgia than two SEC teams have the past two weeks and they only lost by one vs. Wake Forest. Appalachian State is one of the favorites in the Sun Belt but this isn t an explosive scoring team that often wins by wide margins, despite winning in Las Cruces 37-7 last season. New Mexico State has been very competitive this season at 4-0-1 ATS on the closing lines through a difficult early season schedule. Tyler Rodgers has thrown 14 touchdown passes already this season and the up-tempo Aggies won t be an easy team to prepare for given the great contrast in style between these offenses. Trusting the host is the easier call in a second straight road game for the Aggies. APPALACHIAN STATE BY 13 OHIO STATE (-31½) Maryland Maryland has two double-digit upsets this season getting a big win in the Big Ten opener last week behind the team s third quarterback Max Bortenschlager. Maryland caught a few breaks last week but delivered a dominant showing on the ground vs. a quality defense. The task is much tougher this week and the Buckeyes were 62-3 winners in College Park last season. Ohio State has had a soft recent schedule with dominant results including moving to 2-0 in Big Ten play with a 56-0 road shutout win at Rutgers last week. Running the ball against the Buckeyes will be a great challenge as Ohio State has been more vulnerable in the air this season, struggling vs. Indiana and Oklahoma. Maryland doesn t look likely to possess that potential this week in a daunting second straight road game but the Terps are finding a way to compete. OSU BY 27 CLEMSON (-21½) Wake Forest The Tigers have left no doubt that they remain an elite national contender picking up another high quality win last week. This is homecoming but also a potentially dangerous game as Wake Forest has looked formidable, starting 4-1 and out-playing Florida State most of the way last week in a disappointing narrow miss. Few recent meetings in this series have been overly competitive but the Demon Deacons have allowed just over 14 points per game this season with the potential to slow this game down as Auburn and Boston College did in competitive efforts at Clemson. Ultimately the Deacons will need to score to have a shot at the upset and that looks challenging in this matchup. Still the points are appealing as the Tigers haven t been able to match last season s potent offense. CLEMSON BY 17 PURDUE (-3) Minnesota The early enthusiasm in the P.J. Fleck era go disappear quickly as last week s home defeat sours the season goals heading into a tricky road game this week and an even tougher test to follow next week. Purdue has had two weeks to prepare for this game though quarterback David Blough remains a question mark. The Boilermakers are just 2-2 but the losses to Louisville and Michigan were competitive as Jeff Brohm has provided an early spark for the program riding five straight losing seasons. In a major surprise Purdue has slightly stronger run defense statistics at this point despite the tougher schedule and this is a nice opportunity for the Boilermakers at home looking for an elusive B1G win while honoring Joe Tiller. PURDUE BY 7 MICHIGAN (-13) Michigan State 6:30 PM The Wolverines last covered in this annual rivalry game in 2006 while actually only getting the S/U win in two of the last nine meetings. Michigan is 4-0 but lacking dominant numbers as the offense has struggled. The defense has been strong with just 13.5 points per game allowed but the opposition has been suspect. Michigan State delivered a nice home win last week over Iowa to start 1-0 in Big Ten play after winning just one conference game last season. Brian Lewerke has shown clear improvement running the offense but L.J. Scott has been limited in the backfield with just 214 yards despite being projected as one the conference s top rushers. Michigan has had two weeks to prepare for this game but the offense is likely moving forward with back-up quarterback John O Korn and despite a favorable schedule the Wolverines have marginal rushing numbers. This game has to be a priority for Michigan as the Wolverines may get it done. MICHIGAN BY 17 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (-12½) Southern Miss 6:00 PM The Roadrunners aren t being discussed as the top Group of Five threat but this is a team that could be favored in every game the rest of the way. Having the Houston game cancelled helps that aim but the Baylor upset and a fairly soft C-USA slate leaves the door open for a great season in San Antonio. Dalton Sturm has been one of the most accurate passers in the nation and the ground game has produced 5.8 yards per rush. In a big revenge game last week Southern Miss jumped out to a 14-0 lead but could not hold on as North Texas surprisingly upset the Golden Eagles using its passing attack. Now 2-2 with two marginal wins, bowl hopes are suspect with a difficult remaining road schedule. The Roadrunners won 55-32 last season at home as this will be a second straight meeting at the Alamodome. UTSA BY 21 Western Kentucky (-18) UTEP The Miners sit at 0-5 though they did score the cover last week for the first time this season, scoring a season high 21 points in a loss at Army. Western Kentucky was off last week and while 2-2, one win came vs. FCS competition and the other came in a game they trailed in the final two minutes as the Hilltoppers haven t resembled the teams that combined to win 23 games the past two seasons. Mike White has just two touchdowns in four games after throwing for 37 scores last season and the rushing numbers are among the worst nationally. The ugly underdog is likely worth backing as Western Kentucky has faced one of the nation s weakest schedules. WKU BY 10 Stanford (-6½) UTAH 9:15 PM The Cardinal have rebounded from back-to-back losses with back-to-back Pac-12 wins, posting 92 points but allowing 58 as this looks like David Shaw s worst defense in seven years at Stanford. Bryce Love is already over 1,000 yards as by far the nation s leading rusher and the offense is running better behind K.J. Costello. The Utes are 4-0 ahead of this homecoming test in the first meeting in this series since 2014. The perfect start deserves great scrutiny however as a fortunate road escape at Arizona is only worth mentioning and the Utes were soundly out-gained and +5 in turnovers in that game. Tyler Huntley could return for the Utes this week. STANFORD BY 14 IDAHO (-7) UL-Lafayette 4:00 PM The Vandals were off last week and will look to move to 2-0 in their final Sun Belt season. Louisiana has dropped three results in a row in mostly competitive showings with the Ragin Cajuns also off last week. Idaho won 23-13 last season in Lafayette and the yardage featured an even more pronounced advantage. The Vandals haven t offered much of a home field edge in the Kibbie Dome in recent years and the Vandals aren t likely to take advantage of the marginal run defense for UL-L. This looks like an even matchup and the underdog is worth a shot given a fantastic road underdog track record for the Ragin Cajuns in recent years. IDAHO BY 3
Colorado State (-7) UTAH STATE 3:30 PM Utah State lost 95-20 in two power five matchups but the Aggies are 3-0 against the rest of the schedule. Last week s win featured great fortune with seven turnovers in favor of the Aggies, scoring a win over BYU for a huge boost for the program. This series has featured tight games in recent years with Colorado State winning 31-24 in Fort Collins last season with nearly even yardage. The Rams don t deserve much credit for the opening win over Oregon State anymore but the 41-23 loss at Alabama might wind up as one of the closer games against the Tide. Both veteran quarterbacks in this matchup have struggled with interceptions this season but the Rams should have the edge on the ground and could overcome a daunting travel spot after playing at Hawai i last week. COLORADO STATE BY 10 TULANE (-3) Tulsa Tulsa has dominated this series and this will be a rare favorite price for the Wave who has won just once in the last 12 meetings in this matchup. Tulsa deserves better than a 1-4 start with narrow misses vs. decent competition the past three weeks. The offense has shown a big decline in the passing game this season but this is a formidable rushing attack posting 5.5 yards per carry. Both teams have lopsided losses to Big XII foes skewing the defensive numbers and the Wave have handled a pair of strong rushing teams, splitting close low scoring games with Navy and Army. Tulsa won by 23 last season as a double-digit favorite and the Hurricane don t look dramatically worse this season despite the record. TULSA BY 3 Army (-13½) RICE 5:30 PM The Knights got back in the win column last week though they didn t dominate winless UTEP. This will be a third road game in four weeks with Army losing the first two road tests this season. Rice is playing just their second home game of the season, winning also vs. UTEP in the only other Houston game. Last week s 32-point loss to Pittsburgh was expected though the Owls fought back commendably with a steep early deficit. Surprisingly the Owls are only allowing 3.7 yards per rush this season but the offense has struggled behind backup quarterback Jackson Tyner. ARMY BY 11 San Diego State (-10½) UNLV 9:45 PM The Rebels picked up a 41-13 win last week although they allowed 462 yards for a misleading score. 5-0 San Diego State has been tested in tight games in all four FBS contests. The defense has impressed but the offense hasn t proven the ability to post huge numbers with modest scoring this season. San Diego State won 26-7 in this matchup last season but with a 460-122 yardage edge. The Aztecs have a prominent game with Boise State up next week and this is a team that lost S/U twice as a substantial road favorite last season. UNLV isn t easy to support in this matchup but the price is attractive on a Rebels offense that is committed to the run with over 1,200 yards on 6.5 yards per carry already this season. SDSU BY 7 NAVY (-7½) Air Force The AAC is getting attention for two Florida schools with impressive undefeated starts but Navy was a division champion in the conference last season and is 4-0 through a decent schedule, featuring three AAC wins already. Air Force has now dropped three in a row with last week s 56-38 loss to New Mexico a discouraging showing as it isn t often that the Falcons are out-rushed by over 100 yards. Air Force won 28-14 last season with turnovers a factor and Navy has dominated the recent history of this series with a 10-4 S/U run and even better ATS success. Air Force has won consecutive games in this series just once since 2002. NAVY BY 14 Arkansas (-2½) SOUTH CAROLINA This figures to be an important game for two lesser SEC squads that aren t locks to make the postseason. A week after a fourth quarter comeback win South Carolina surrendered a fourth quarter lead last week to fall against Texas A&M. Arkansas sits at 2-2 but the wins have been against FCS Florida A&M and last week vs. New Mexico State in a game that was competitive. This is a critical game for the Razorbacks as they draw Alabama and Auburn the next two weeks as a loss here could mean a 0-4 SEC start. South Carolina has a clear defensive edge in this matchup allowing fewer than 21 points per game this season with the Gamecocks effective against the run this season. The Arkansas defense has not held up against power five competition so far this season but South Carolina is likely to lose the rushing battle posting only 3.0 yards per rush. ARKANSAS BY 4 COLORADO (-7) Arizona The Wildcats have had a long layoff following a narrow loss hosting Utah to open the Pac-12 season. Colorado enters this game 0-2 in Pac-12 play, blown out hosting Washington and last week losing narrowly at UCLA in an even game. The Buffaloes have posted just 3.8 yards per rush this season and will be at risk to suffer a severe rushing deficit in this matchup as Arizona has gained 6.1 yards per rush. Turnovers were an issue for the Wildcats in the two losses this season however as closing out a win in a close game isn t something this group is used to. Arizona lost 49-24 at home last season in this matchup but they actually out-gained the South champion Buffaloes in that game and Arizona had won four in a row in the series prior to last season. Last season s success keeps the Buffaloes favored this week though Arizona might be the superior team. ARIZONA BY 3 Texas Tech (-17½) KANSAS Kansas is 0-3 in FBS play this season but the Jayhawks have scored 91 points in those games. Shootouts have generally been the norm for Texas Tech but the Red Raiders have been able to limit big plays this season and were competitive in the team s first loss last week hosting Oklahoma State. This scheduling situation certainly favors the heavy underdog and Kansas lost by only 10 two years ago hosting this matchup. Texas Tech won narrowly with the help of five turnovers in their only road game at Houston and could be vulnerable against a massive spread this week as Kansas has to see this as one of the team s best opportunities of the season in this week s homecoming week test. TEXAS TECH BY 13 WASHINGTON (-27) California California has competed well in a 3-2 start but the Bears are 0-2 in Pac-12 play and will face the undefeated North leaders the next two games. Washington won 66-27 last season in this matchup but the Bears have been respectable defensively this season through a very difficult early season schedule. Washington has faced one of the nation s weakest power five slates and seven of the team s 14 losses under Chris Petersen have come in Seattle. Wins over North Carolina and Mississippi sound nice but the overall merit of those wins is likely to decrease even further by season s end. Washington looks capable of matching last season s success but this year s team hasn t been fully tested yet. WASHINGTON BY 24 OREGON (-2½) Washington State The Cougars came through Friday night with a big win over USC to shake up the Pac-12 picture but it has been a very weak overall schedule for Washington State and the early weeks have suggested the USC isn t the team many hoped they would be. Oregon is on pace for dramatic improvement this season and the Ducks picked up a 21-point win hosting California last week, now featuring the nation s top scoring offense at nearly 50 points per game. Oregon has posted good production on the ground and in the air and Willie Taggert has led great improvement in the run defense for the Ducks, allowing just 2.6 yards per carry. Washington State has had a lot of success in this series, covering in the past seven meetings including S/U wins the past two years and Oregon is now playing without quarterback Justin Herbert and possibly star back Royce Freeman. WSU BY 13 MID TENNESSEE STATE (-10) Florida Intl 2:00 PM The Panthers still grade as one of the nation s worst teams but this is a team on a three-game winning streak. FIU has a golden opportunity to take out a wounded Blue Raiders squad this week. The offense has suffered a big decline under backup quarterback John Urzua, opening the Conference USA season with a 38-20 loss last week at Florida Atlantic. Strong run defense numbers for the Blue Raiders have been a factor of the schedule and last season this was a tight game with FIU falling 42-35 while posting more than 500 yards against an 8-win Middle Tennessee State squad. Last week s comeback win could build some positive momentum for Butch Davis and the Panthers for another strong showing. MTSU BY 3 USC (-34) Oregon State The Trojans play a tough enough schedule that they can be a playoff candidate with one-loss but there are plenty of difficult games remaining. This isn t likely to be one of them as an Oregon State squad many pegged for improvement is off to an ugly start to the season. Sam Darnold already has eight interceptions as he is looking more and more like another overhyped USC quarterback but USC s veteran defense has been perhaps a bigger disappointment. After the team s first loss a sharp showing isn t to be expected from a team that many felt could go unbeaten. The Trojans have allowed at least 20 points in every game this season to make the Beavers a cover threat even now with a backup quarterback. USC BY 31 UL-Monroe (-7½) TEXAS STATE 2:00 PM The Warhawks have evened their record to 2-2 with back-to-back narrow wins heading into a stretch of favorable matchups in October as finishing the month 6-0 in Sun Belt play wouldn t be a huge stretch for a team that no one considered a contender in the conference. A persistent rushing attack gaining 5.0 yards per rush has led the way and Caleb Evans has taken control of the quarterback position with few big mistakes. Texas State played right with Appalachian State a few weeks ago but the Bobcats have followed that result up with a pair of lopsided losses. The offensive numbers are rough for Texas State but this will be the most favorable matchup for the Bobcats since their opening week FCS win. UL-MONROE BY 6 Georgia (-16½) VANDERBILT A 3-0 start for Vanderbilt has been erased with back-to-back losses and it doesn t get any easier this week with another elite defense visiting Nashville. This isn t likely an ideal spot on the schedule for the Bulldogs following up a big rivalry win that featured a dominant performance at Tennessee last week. Georgia lost 17-16 hosting Vanderbilt last season despite a 421-171 yardage advantage as there should be enough motivating factors to keep focus high for the Bulldogs even in a second straight road game. Vanderbilt caught some breaks in the win over Kansas State and none of the wins look like high quality results at this point in the season. Georgia has looked the part of one of the nation s top teams. GEORGIA BY 24
TCU (-14) West Virginia TCU is 4-0 and climbing in national stature with quality results. The Frogs were off last week following the big upset over Oklahoma State and TCU looks likely to be favored the rest of the way until a November meeting in Norman. Will Grier has thrown 13 touchdowns stepping in at West Virginia but the Mountaineers are a bit of mystery at 3-1 but without any wins of substance. The opening loss against Virginia Tech was competitive but the October schedule will feature difficult tests that could make or break the season coming off last season s surprise 10-win campaign. West Virginia beat TCU 34-10 last season although turnovers played a big role but TCU won by 30 in the last meeting in Fort Worth. Ultimately this looks like a hefty price to give a productive passing attack even if TCU s defense has been very impressive so far this season. TCU BY 10 Louisiana Tech (-12½) UAB The Blazers are 2-2 returning to the FBS level this season, getting an extra week to digest a tough 46-43 loss to North Texas. Louisiana Tech is 3-2 but it has been a struggle in all three wins including leading by just one in the fourth quarter last week despite an 18-point final margin. Quarterback play has declined this season and the Bulldogs have also dropped its rushing average by a yard per carry despite a schedule that hasn t been overly imposing. UAB has limited experience but it is a veteran group that has had a decent showing so far this season after a two-year hiatus. Home support has been there in a pair of home wins for the Blazers. LA TECH BY 3 NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-23½) Kent State The numbers for Kent State look rough in a 1-4 start but 98 points allowed came at Clemson and at Louisville. The Flashes lost by 14 at home last week but they had a yardage edge on Buffalo but were soundly beat in the ground game. Northern Illinois is just 2-2 but the Huskies look back to being one of the top MAC performers as they have a win over Nebraska and the losses came in tight games with Boston College and San Diego State. The Huskies had a 417-263 yardage edge last week but came up short thanks to allowing long kickoff and interception return scores. NIU won 31-21 in the season finale last year in a competitive game and in MAC play Kent State should be able to compete as three of six league losses came by just four points last season and a letdown is possible in Dekalb. NIU BY 18 Florida Atlantic (-3½) OLD DOMINION 5:00 PM Lane Kiffin s start at Florida Atlantic featured just a FCS win and some major travel woes in the first month but his team played well last week in defeating Middle Tennessee State for a 1-0 start in Conference USA. The Owls have some potential in the East division and this game could be a critical swing game in between possible sleepers. Old Dominion enters this game off a pair of losses to ACC teams to wipe out an unimpressive 2-0 start with wins over Albany and Massachusetts. Old Dominion won 42-24 last season but the Monarchs have averaged fewer than 18 points per game this season and the quarterback position remains unsettled. FAU BY 7 FLORIDA (-3½) Lsu Recall that last season Florida had to give up its home game with LSU and went to Baton Rouge and won 16-10. They finally get to host the Tigers but it isn t the national power most expected to see but rather a wounded 3-2 squad that just suffered a humiliating defeat. The young defense hasn t dominated and the offense hasn t made progress as the Ed Orgeron era has endured a difficult first full season already and before the end of October the Tigers still have dates with Auburn and Alabama. While Florida has won four in a row they aren t far from being 0-4 this season with narrow wins. Feleipe Franks has been the team s main quarterback this season and Luke Del Rio was lost for the season last week. Ultimately last week should be a wake-up call for LSU even if it isn t clear they will hear it. LSU BY 3 OKLAHOMA (-28) Iowa State The Sooners were off last week sitting at 4-0 with the toughest Big XII tests still weeks away. After a dominant 3-0 start the Sooners looked vulnerable against Baylor, displaying the marginal pass defense that has led to the Sooners to losing S/U in at least one regular season game as a double-digit favorite in six straight seasons. Iowa State s offense was shut down in a big primetime test last Thursday, managing just seven points against Texas. Iowa State played Oklahoma tough last season losing by just 10 at home but the yardage disparity was severe and after a sloppy showing against Baylor a more focused effort seems likely for a team looking to make a case as one of the nation s elite. OKLAHOMA BY 35 HOUSTON (-5½) Smu 6:00 PM SMU is off to a great start at 4-1, looking for a bowl bid for the first time since 2012. Last season the Mustangs stunned then #11 Houston with a 38-16 result as this matchup should have Houston s attention, even in a coaching change season. The Cougars are 3-1 under Major Applewhite but three of four games have been one-score contests. Houston likely has a lower ceiling turning to senior quarterback Kyle Postma but he has mostly avoided mistakes while providing a rushing threat. SMU hasn t faced a great schedule but the Mustangs have allowed just 3.0 yards per rush while featuring the third best scoring offense in the nation. This rivalry is starting to re-ignite and the underdog has a great shot at two in a row. SMU BY 7 KENTUCKY (-11½) Missouri 6:30 PM With some staff changes already made 1-3 Missouri is in a critical spot on the schedule with what was expected to be one of the better SEC opportunities of the season coming off a bye week. Missouri is at Georgia next week as 1-5 seems inevitable unless the Tigers can win in Lexington. Kentucky is 4-1 for a great start to the season but the Wildcats have not topped 27 points in a game and all four wins have come by 11 or fewer points. On the flipside Kentucky isn t far from a 5-0 start. While supporting the Tigers is a risk this figures to be their best effort. KENTUCKY BY 10 Wisconsin (-11½) NEBRASKA The Badgers have won five of six meetings since Nebraska joined the Big Ten and this season s game will feature the biggest spread in that run. Wisconsin is an undefeated top 10 squad that will be a solid favorite in every remaining game until hosting Michigan in November but this squad has battled injuries and has been a bit inconsistent through a very light early season schedule. Nebraska is 2-0 in B1G play but will be expected to even out to 2-2 the next two weeks. Tanner Lee has nine interceptions and the defensive improvement has come against lousy competition. UW BY 21 AUBURN (-21) Mississippi An uneven start to the season came together last week for Auburn with a 49-10 win over Mississippi State, moving to 2-0 in SEC play. Jarrett Stidham has been accurate but Auburn s running game has been a mild disappointment so far this season. Ole Miss is 0-4 ATS this season and last week s game in Tuscaloosa went poorly, losing 66-3 with Alabama pouring it on with 31 fourth quarter points. Shea Patterson can t do it all but misleading final scores last week could leave a bit of value on the Rebels. AUBURN BY 20 TEXAS (-4) Kansas State 6:00 PM The Wildcats were out-gained last week but won by 13 in a competitive game with Baylor. Some saw Kansas State as a serious Big XII threat this season but through a light early slate the offense has struggled in the passing game and the rushing numbers are inflated. Texas is 2-2 but heading in the right direction with big opportunities in the coming weeks. The Longhorns have been very impressive on defense since allowing 51 points in the opening loss. The host has won and covered in the past five meetings in this series and knowing Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are up next there should be great urgency for the Longhorns to get it done this week. TEXAS BY 7 Alabama (-26½) TEXAS A&M 6:15 PM The Aggies had a frustrating loss to start the season but pulling out two narrow wins to start SEC play leaves Texas A&M in a decent position. That could change in a hurry with a difficult schedule ahead, starting with this daunting draw. Only six teams have defeated Texas A&M the past five+ seasons and Texas A&M and Kevin Sumlin have one of those victories. Alabama has outscored its two SEC foes 125-3 however the past two weeks and the gap with the rest of the SEC West looks as severe as it has ever been. The Aggies have been an ugly ATS performer outside of Sumlin s first season and if Alabama is set on pouring it on as they have the past two weeks it will be tough to try to turn the Tide. ALABAMA BY 34 Fresno State (-16) SAN JOSE STATE 6:30 PM The Spartans had good production last week with 30 first downs but only 13 points to show for it and UNLV likely could have added more points, posting just six second half points playing with a big lead. Fresno State moved to 2-2 and with forgivable losses to Alabama and Washington the Bulldogs are heading in the right direction under Jeff Tedford. San Jose State won 16-14 last season in Fresno with the Spartans featuring back-to-back wins in this series. Junior Marcus McMaryion played well in his first game as the lone quarterback last week and while this is a big road favorite spread for a team that won once last season the turnaround is believable. FRESNO BY 21 Hawai i (-4) NEVADA 9:30 PM The Wolf Pack hasn t had a lead since the first game of the season against Northwestern as it is shaping up to be a very difficult season in Reno. It has been a difficult schedule however and this could be a better opportunity. Hawai i has dropped three in a row as the schedule has stiffened and Nevada had won five in a row in this series until last season. Nevada has surprisingly strong run defense numbers this season which could prove to be an important factor this week with two teams coming off taxing schedules in competition and travel in recent weeks. HAWAI I BY 3 Miami, FL (-3) FLORIDA STATE This game was originally scheduled for September 16 and these ACC powers enter October in different places with Miami still undefeated albeit with a pair of misleading results the past two weeks. Florida State narrowly avoided a 0-3 start last week with an escape at Wake Forest in a game the Seminoles were out-played in. Wins can t be assumed in the coming weeks with a difficult October schedule as Florida State is at risk for a very disappointing season. James Blackman clearly has talent but so far he is completing 56 percent of his passes with few big plays and Florida State s struggling running game will face what has been one of the nation s top run defenses so far this season. The Hurricanes have not fared well in the recent history of this series but Miami has a great opportunity this week to make a splash and enter the national conversation. MIAMI BY 7