Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy: Situation and Outlook AAEA Annual Meeting Extension Track August 14, 2012 James G. Robb Director james.robb@lmic.info
29 land Grant Universities: USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Foundation CoBank TCFA CWB TCU
Topics: Markets, Numbers and U.S. Consumer and Per Capita Disappearance Feedstuffs are the Key Some International Trade Comments Sector Highlights Chicken Hogs/Pork Dairy Cattle/Beef USDA Data Sources NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS All Forecasts LMIC
US Consumer and Consumption (Disappearance)
Dollars PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME Quarterly 36000 33500 Current Dollar 31000 28500 2005 Dollar 26000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Data Source: Dept Commerce-BEA
Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX First Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100 100 80 100 95 94 86 87 83 86 75 77 76 80 80 83 83 91 87 85 85 82 81 74 77 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Data Source: LMIC
U S BEEF CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual Pounds 70 65 60 55 50 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
U S RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual Pounds 200 150 100 Turkey Total Chicken Pork 50 Beef 0 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
Drought A Game Changer
Feedstuffs are Key
U S TOTAL CORN SUPPLY AND PRICE Crop Year Bil. Bushels 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 $ Per Bushel 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 Supply Price 8 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 1.00 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
U.S. CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKS Crop Year Bil. Bushels 16 14 12 10 Stocks Exports 8 6 4 2 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Food, Seed & Industrial Feed & Residual Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
Trade Comments
U S BROILER EXPORTS As a Percentage of Broiler Production, RTC, Annual Percent 20 15 10 5 0 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
Percent 22 U S NET PORK EXPORTS As a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual 17 12 7 2-3 -8 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
1000 MT 30 CHEESE AND CURD EXPORTS Monthly 25 Avg. 2006-010 20 2011 15 10 2012 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data Source: USDA-FAS
Percent 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 1-1 -3 U S BEEF AND VEAL NET IMPORTS As a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC
FEEDER CATTLE IMPORTS FROM MEXICO Weekly Thou. Head 80 70 60 Avg. 2006-10 50 40 2011 30 20 10 2012 0 JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS & APHIS
Mil. Head (Cow s & Heifers) 6 CANADA CATTLE INVENTORY January 1, Annual Mil. Head (Total) 15.2 5 4 3 2 1 14.7 14.2 13.7 13.2 12.7 Beef Cows Beef Heifer Replacements Total Cattle Inventory 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 12.2 Data Source: Statistics Canada
Chicken & Pork
BROILER EGGS SET Weekly Mil. Eggs 220 215 210 205 200 Avg. 2006-10 195 190 2011 185 180 175 2012 JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-NASS
RTC BROILER PRODUCTION Quarterly Bil. Pounds 9.6 9.2 Avg. 2007/11 2012 8.8 8.4 2013 2014 8.0 JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
RTC TURKEY PRODUCTION Quarterly Bil. Pounds 1.6 1.5 Avg. 2007/11 2012 1.4 2013 1.3 1.2 JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
Thou. Head 70 SOW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 65 60 55 Avg. 2006-10 2011 50 45 2012 40 JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-NASS
PIGS PER LITTER Quarterly Head 10.7 10.2 9.7 9.2 8.7 8.2 7.7 7.2 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Data Source: USDA-NASS
COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION Quarterly Bil. Pounds 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 Avg. 2007/11 2012 2013 5.4 5.2 5.0 JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
Dairy
CLASS III MILK PRICES FMMO, Monthly $ Per Cwt 23.00 22.00 21.00 20.00 19.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2006-010 2011 2012 Data Source: USDA-AMS
Thou Head 9280 9260 9240 9220 DAIRY COW INVENTORY US Total, Monthly Avg. 2006-010 2011 9200 9180 9160 2012 9140 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA-NASS
Thou. Head 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 DAIRY COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Avg. 2006-10 2011 2012 35 JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-NASS
Cattle/Beef
Mil. Head 52 JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
$ Per Cwt. 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 500-600 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2006-10 2011 2012 Data Source: USDA-AMS
Bil. Pounds 7.0 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Quarterly 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2007/11 2012 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
$ Per Cwt ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains 175 155 135 115 95 75 500-600lb Steer Calves 700-800lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers 55 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Forecasts by LMIC
$ Per Cow 200 ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual 150 100 50 0-50 -100 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC
$ Per Cwt 145 135 125 115 105 95 85 CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: July 2012 Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven 75 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC
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