Operations Updates Emilie Nelson Wes Yeomans New York Independent System Operator Market Issues Working Group NYISO Krey Corporate Center May 13, 21
Wind Forecast Performance 2
Overview of Wind Forecast Graphs Graphs Include: Real-time hour ahead Mean Absolute Error (MAE) & Bias AWS Truewind forecast & persistence Real-time hour ahead MAE for wind ramp events in excess of ~25 Important when considering value of forecast vs. persistence Day-Ahead MAE & Bias Note: All graphs show monthly values for past 13 months 3
12. 11. 1. NYISO Wind Forecast Performance Real Time Hour Ahead Error Statistics by Month (Mean Absolute Error & Bias) 6. 5. 4. Installed Wind Capacity: 1256 MAE Error (% Installed Wind Capacity) 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1.. -1. -2. -3. -4. Bias Error (% Installed Wind Capacity) MAE MAE PERSIST Bias 1. -5.. -6. Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 MAE%: Avg actual generation - forecasted schedule from an hour ago / Installed Wind Capacity MAE Persistence%: Avg actual generation - actual generation from an hour ago / Installed Wind Capacity Bias%: Avg (actual generation - forecasted schedule from an hour ago) / Installed Wind Capacity 4
26 24 22 NYISO Wind Forecast Performance Hour Ahead Mean Absolute Error Statistics by Month (During Ramp Periods Exceeding 2% of Installed Wind Capacity) Installed Wind Capacity: 1256 MAE Error (% Installed Wind Capacity) 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Ramp 2% 251.2 MAE MAE PERSIST Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 MAE%: Avg actual generation - forecasted schedule from an hour ago / Installed Wind Capacity MAE Persistence%: Avg actual generation - actual generation from an hour ago / Installed Wind Capacity 5
NYISO Wind Forecast Performance Day Ahead Error Statistics by Month (Mean Absolute Error & Bias) 12. 6. 11. 1. 4. Installed Wind Capacity: 1256 MAE Error (% Installed Wind Capacity) 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2.. -2. -4. Bias Error (% Installed Wind Capacity) MAE Bias 1.. -6. Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-1 MAE%: Avg actual generation - forecasted schedule from Day Ahead / Installed Wind Capacity Bias%: Avg (actual generation - forecasted schedule from Day Ahead) / Installed Wind Capacity 6
Lake Erie Circulation: On/Off Peak Values in the Day-Ahead Market 7
Lake Erie Circulation Background The Lake Erie circulation value used in the Day Ahead Market (DAM) evaluation is updated weekly, and based on the average hourly loop flows experienced in real-time over the past 3 days. The ISO retains the discretion to make ad-hoc adjustments when the 3 day past average is not an accurate prediction of Lake Erie circulation for use in the DAM. In response to stakeholder inquiries, the NYISO has reviewed including distinct on and off peak values. 8
Circulation: On & Off Peak IMO-NYISO Circulation Average value over 3 day intervals 8. 7. 6. 521.11 579.74 557.59 539.92 5. 447.9 442. 468.19 425.85 4. 341. 357.59 3. 256.83 29.7 2. 1.. 2143-2152 21327-21425 2132-21418 21313-21411 Trailing 3 day average On-Peak Off-Peak 9
Lake Erie Circulation Next Steps Recent system conditions show a divergence in on and off peak Lake Erie circulation values. The NYISO will begin to model distinct on and off peak values based on the average hourly loop flows experienced in real-time over the past 3 days. The ISO retains the discretion to make ad-hoc adjustments when the 3 day past average is not an accurate prediction of Lake Erie circulation for use in the DAM. The definition to be used for on/off peak is as follows: On Peak: Monday Saturday HB 7-22 Off Peak: Monday Saturday HB 23-6, Sunday HB -23 Effective market day May 19, 21 1
Posting Central East Voltage Collapse Limits 11
Central East Voltage Collapse Limits The Central East voltage collapse limits are a function of: Number Complex units on-line Number of Independence units on-line Transmission line status Static reactive device status Central East Voltage Collapse Limit () Calculation: + Central East Voltage Collapse Base Limit - Derate for Independence Units out-service - Derate Transmission Facilities out-service - Derate for Capacitors, SVCs, STATCOM out-service --------------------------------------------------- = Central East Voltage Collapse Limit () 12
Central East Voltage Collapse Limits Market Participants have requested the Base Central East Voltage Collapse limits () and device outage penalties () be posted on the NYISO web site. The NYISO will post the following tables. 13
Central East Voltage Collapse Base Limits Complex Units are defined as Nine Mile 1, Nine Mile 2, Fitzpatrick, 5, and 6 In-service definition includes the Automatic Voltage Regulator, AVR, is also in-service. 1 2 3 4 5 Base Limit 225 2615 2785 2895 2955 2955 14
Derate for Independence Units Independence Units I/S 1 2 3 4 5 48 48 36 24 12 12 1 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 32 32 24 16 8 8 3 24 24 18 12 6 6 4 16 16 12 8 4 4 5 8 8 6 4 2 2 6 15
Derate Transmission Facilities Out-Service Transmission Line Outage 1 2 3 4 5 Fitz-Edic 1 5 3 6 85 11 11 Edic NS 14 745 8 855 91 965 965 Edic-Rotter 3 Edic-Rotter 31 Massena-Marcy MSU-1 8 5 635 51 39 39 Marcy-NS 18 5 81 86 91 96 96 Volney-Marcy 19 5 35 65 95 125 125 Inghams PAR PV-2 16
Derate Capacitors, SVCs, STATCOM O/S Reactive Device Name Derate () Edic Fraser #1 Fraser #2 Gilboa Leeds #1 Leeds #2 Marcy #1 Marcy #2 New Scotland #1 New Scotland #2 New Scotland #3 Oakdale Rotterdam #3 Rottterdam #4 Marcy STATCOM SVC Fraser SVC Leeds SVC 45 2 2 2 2 45 45 25 25 25 15 2 2 35 35 17
The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is a not-for-profit corporation that began operations in 1999. The NYISO operates New York s bulk electricity grid, administers the state s wholesale electricity markets, and conducts comprehensive planning for the state s bulk electricity system. www.nyiso.com 18