SATURDAY, MARCH 5, 2016 DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION Gotham Shagaf Photo by Barbara D. Livingston
Gotham Analysis BY DAN ILLMAN Saturday s Grade 3, $400,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct offers 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner. It seems a wide-open race that may clarify a jumbled local 3-year-old picture. ADVENTIST (3) can offer value for trainer Leah Gyarmati. An 11 1/4-length debut winner sprinting on Dec. 19, Adventist raced greenly in his initial start against winners, the Grade 3 Withers on Jan. 30. He broke poorly, pulled to track while wide and dug in gamely for third despite bumping multiple times with another runner. A half-brother to nine-time stakeswinner Isn t He Clever, Adventist has upside. SUNNY RIDGE (7) utilized his tactical speed to win the Withers. Sunny Ridge tracked outside, collared the pacesetter turning for home and fought that one off. He boasts strong Beyers and could be the one to beat. It s interesting that his connections seem uninterested in the Derby. Instead, the main goals are the Preakness, Belmont, and Haskell Invitational. CONQUEST BIG E (6) is perfect over sloppy tracks, but has yet to win on fast going. Perhaps he was overmatched against Mohaymen and Greenpointcrusader in his seasonal debut at Gulfstream. He showed some flashes last year and looks like a nice fit against these horses. SHAGAF (2) could go off favored despite jumping up in class and distance. Trained by Chad Brown, he is flawless from two starts around a one-turn mile. He ran fast in his debut, but his win at Gulfstream was more workmanlike than brilliant. It s possible he s the Gotham s best long-term prospect. LAOBAN (1), still a maiden, was scratched from both the Robert B. Lewis and the Risen Star partly due to illness. He has speed and the rail and is expected to be forwardly placed under Aaron Gryder. Laoban didn t have the cleanest trip in his most recent start, the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on Jan. 9 and isn t out of this. Todd Pletcher saddles MO POWER (5) and RALLY CRY (8). Mo Power, a big good-looking colt, showed improvement to graduate second-out at Gulfstream. He acts like he ll run all day. Rally Cry, also by Uncle Mo, endured a traffic-filled trip when third to Shagaf at Gulfstream on Jan. 29. VINCENTO (4) ran a fast race when dusting off New York-breds. He disappointed badly in his subsequent effort, however. NINTH RACE Probable Post 4:50 EST 1 1/16 Miles. Inner track. 3-Year-Olds. Gotham (Grade 3). Purse: $400,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 2 Shagaf...Ortiz I Jr...116...3-1 7 Sunny Ridge...Franco M... 123...7-2 3 Adventist...Carmouche K...116...4-1 8 Rally Cry...Alvarado J...116...5-1 5 Mo Power...Velazquez J R...116...6-1 6 Conquest Big E...Ortiz J L...116...6-1 1 Laoban...Gryder A T...116...15-1 4 Vincento...Arroyo A S...116...20-1
Gotham Super Looks BY BRIAN MULLIGAN LAOBAN (Record: 3-M-1-1, 2 Derby points) Best Beyer: 77 Trainer: Eric Guillot Jockey: Aaron Gryder Pedigree: (to be compiled by Breeding staff) Formulator Facts: Guillot is 0 for 5 the last five years with 3-year-olds returning between 31 and 60 days in a graded stakes, but three ran in the money at odds between 10-1 and 21-1. Outlook: This son of Uncle Mo may have been intimidated by the rail in his debut when he was off slowly. His inexperience could have cost him in the second start when he gave up a five-length lead. His connections thought enough of him to try the Grade 3 Sham on Jan. 9, his last start, and he ran okay but did not threaten the winner, Collected. And Collected did not exactly flatter him next time when he ran out of the money in the Southwest at Oaklawn Park. Value: Betting maidens vs. winners in a graded stakes is a tough way to go and this racer will likely be in the 30-1 range. SHAGAF (Record: 2-2-0-0, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 88 Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Pedigree: (to be compiled by Breeding staff) Formulator Facts: Brown is 5 for 26 or 19 percent the last five years with 3-year-old last-out winners in a Grade 3 stakes. Outlook: Despite racing wide, Shagaf won his debut as the favorite in his only start last year, and he did it in facile fashion. Given about nine weeks to recover from that effort, he was heavily bet at Gulfstream in his second start, and he did not disappoint. He held on to win by two lengths, showing that he can pressure the pace on some live fractions and still prevail. Backers can forget about the fact he lost ground late in the last race. He is bred to run all day long. His dam won a stakes and is kin to Eldaafer, a millionaire who won the 2010 Breeders Cup Marathon. Value: He has not missed a beat in the mornings since his last race and deserves solid consideration. He would be fair value at 9-5 or so. ADVENTIST (Record: 2-1-0-1, 2 Derby points) Best Beyer: 85 Trainer: Leah Gyarmati Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche Pedigree: (to be compiled by Breeding staff) Formulator Facts: Gyarmati is 0 for 3 the last five years with 3-year-olds in a Grade 3 stakes coming off an in-themoney finish. All ran third, at odds between 5-2 and 22-1. Outlook: This improving colt was visually impressive in his debut when he drew off to win by over 11 lengths. He was a bit out of his element in his first stakes try last time when beaten by Sunny Ridge in the Withers, but he didn t get the best of trips. He was only a length off the lead at one point, shied away from the whip and lost some ground, and then finished with interest. And he has a shot to win routing as kin Isn t He Clever won routing seven times and earned nearly $950,000. Value: Since he is conceding racing experience, even at 10-1 he would have a lot of things to prove. VINCENTO (Record: 4-2-0-1, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 90 Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez (Rodriguez won this race in 2013 with Vyjack) Jockey: Angel Arroyo Pedigree: (to be compiled by Breeding staff) Formulator Facts: Vincento makes his third start off a layoff, and Rodriguez is 4 for 13 the last five years with such racers in a graded stakes, with a median payoff of over $13. Two others ran in the money. Outlook: Precocious enough to win at first asking, Vincento has raced against just New York-breds. Given about six weeks after running third in his 2015 finale, this son of Include returned with blinkers to win. The place horse was over nine lengths clear of third. He was sent along in his first stakes attempt last month, but faltered badly when it counted. Value: This colt has been speed challenged, and that could make him vulnerable to a possible troubled trip. He will have a hard time making the next step today. May go off at 20-1.
Gotham Super Looks CONTINUED MO POWER (Record: 2-1-1-0, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 76 Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez Formulator Facts: Mo Power won a maiden race last out, and Pletcher is 13 for 66, or 20 percent, in a Grade 3 stakes the last five years with 3-year-olds coming off a win. The median payoff is 5-2. Outlook: This $325,000 purchase had to deal with the outside post in his sprint debut, and although he rallied stoutly, he fell a neck short. He was given time to recover from that effort and won in professional manner in a mile race at Gulfstream Park while forcing the pace. His workouts since his last race have been ideally spaced, and his tactical speed should give him first run on the deep closers. Value: Considering this is his first try vs. winners, an 8-1 price would seem reasonable. CONQUEST BIG E (Record: 5-2-1-0, 1 Derby points) Best Beyer: 84 Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Ortiz (Ortiz won this race in 2014 with Samraat) Formulator Facts: Conquest Big E makes his second start off the layoff, and Casse is 4 for 42, or 10 percent, with such runners in a graded stakes, with a median payoff of 5-1. Outlook: This son of Tapit who cost $700,000 had a valid excuse in this debut when he broke in the air. He won next out on a sloppy surface and then ran eighth in Nyquist s Breeders Cup Juvenile victory. He closed out his 2015 campaign again winning on a sloppy surface, but was only a brief threat in his first start this year in the Holy Bull. He was flattered when the winner of the Holy Bull, Mohaymen, took the Fountain of Youth Stakes recently with a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. Value: Since he has been handled easily in his stakes efforts and since he will likely have to come from pretty far back, a fair value for this runner could be in the 6-1 range. SUNNY RIDGE (Record: 6-3-2-0, 18 Derby points) Best Beyer: 92 Trainer: Jason Servis Jockey: Manuel Franco Formulator Facts: Servis is 87 for 330, or 26 percent, the last five years with last-out winners, with a median payoff of 2-1. Outlook: A New Jersey-bred son of Holy Bull, he graduated in a maiden claimer. He proved his talent a couple of races later, taking the $161,000 Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park. Sent into the Grade 1 Champagne, he was a solid second and then second again in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot by a neck. Given about two months to mature, he won the Grade 3 Withers last out. Value: His versatility could be his best asset as he has shown he can win from close up or pretty far off the pace. Since he is proven on this surface and has showed he can handle graded foes, about 9-2 seems like a valid price for him. RALLY CRY (Record: 3-1-0-2, 0 Derby points) Best Beyer: 80 Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Pletcher has two wins in this race, the last in 2011 with Stay Thirsty) Jockey: Junior Alvarado Formulator Facts: Pletcher is 34 for 162, or 21 percent, the last five years with 3-year-olds in Grade 3 stakes, with a median payoff of 7-2, and 29 ran second. Outlook: Odds-on in his sprint debut last year, Rally Cry tired when it counted. He was shipped to Gulfstream and won on the stretch-out to a mile. He had a rough trip in his first effort vs. winners in January when forced to race wide and steady. He was brushed back at the start, tried to push issue on the inside, but the opening closed and he lost several lengths. He finished solidly despite staying on his left lead and still tried hard till the end. Value: The fact that he has faced some adversity and has shown he can pass horses gives him a chance to make an impact from off the pace at around 3-1.
Gotham Pedigree BY NICOLE RUSSO LAOBAN Uncle Mo Chattertown, by Speightstown Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 49 Sire history: 3 crops of racing age, 323 foals of racing age, 2.2% SWs, 1.2% GSWs Dam s produce record: 3 foals of racing age, 1 starter, 0 winners. Dam s progeny average winning distance: NA Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 77 SHAGAF Bernardini Muhaawara (by Unbridled s Song) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.6 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 59 Sire history: 7 crops, 1,240 foals, 4% SWs, 2.6% GSWs Dam s produce record: 3 foals, 2 starters, 2 winners Dam s progeny average winning distance: 9.3 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 88 ADVENTIST Any Given Saturday Sharp Minister (by Deputy Minister) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.9 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 51 Sire history: 7 crops, 679 foals, 3% SWs, 1% GSWs Dam s produce record: 12 foals, 11 starters, 9 winners. Dam of Group 3 winner Dijeerr, stakes winners Isn t He Clever and Sharp Writer. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.6 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 82.6 VINCENTO Include Seeking the Silver (by Grindstone) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.3 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 54 Sire history: 11 crops, 968 foals, 5% SWs, 1.9% GSWs Dam s produce record: 9 foals, 7 starters, 6 winners. Dam of Grade 1 winner Dads Caps, Grade 2 winner Paulassilverlining, and stakes placed Liza Too. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.4 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 78.6 MO POWER Uncle Mo Rhiana (by Runaway Groom) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 49 Sire history: 3 crops, 323 foals, 2.2% SWs, 1.2% GSWs Dam s produce record: 7 foals, 7 starters, 6 winners. Dam of graded stakes winner Behindatthebar. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7.4 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 85.3 CONQUEST BIG E Tapit Seeinsbelieven (by Carson City) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 7.5 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 65 Sire history: 9 crops, 1,013 foals, 7% SWs, 4.6% GSWs Dam s produce record: 5 foals, 3 starters, 2 winners. Dam of stakes winner Aquapazza. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 8.2 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 81 SUNNY RIDGE Holy Bull Lignum Vitae (by Songandaprayer) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 46 Sire history: 18 crops, 1,199 foals, 4% SWs, 1.4% GSWs Dam s produce record: 2 foals, 1 starter, 1 winner. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 7 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 92 RALLY CRY Uncle Mo Alienated (by Gone West) Sire s progeny average winning distance: 6.8 furlongs Sire s progeny average 2015 best Beyer: 49 Sire history: 3 crops of racing age, 323 foals, 2.2% SWs, 1.2% GSWs Dam s produce record: 7 foals, 6 starters, 4 winners. Dam of Grade 1 placed Alienation. Dam s progeny average winning distance: 6.6 furlongs Dam s progeny average best Beyer: 71.8
Gotham Beyer Chart Career-best Beyer Speed Figures for the field AVERAGE WINNING BEYER BEYER SPEED FIGURES 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99.3 Laoban 77 Shagaf 88 Adventist 85 Vincento 90 Mo Power 76 Conquest Big E 84 Sunny Ridge 92 Rally Cry 80 Track s mornling line odds FIVE-YEAR BEYER TREND: 93.60 WINNERS 2011: Stay Thirsty, 89 2012: Hansen, 95 2013: Vyjack, 93 2014: Samraat, 96 2015: El Kabeir, 98
Gotham Pace Projection PACE 1 1/2 mile AQUEDUCT INNER TRACK, 1 1/16 miles PACE 2 3/4 mile START F I N I S H 1st: Adventist 2nd: Sunny Ridge 3rd: Conquest Big E
Road to the 2016 Kentucky Derby DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK... WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND... 3RD...4TH Sept. 12... Iroquois... 1 1/16M... Churchill Downs...Cocked and Loaded... 82... 10...4... 2...1 Sept. 26... FrontRunner... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita...Nyquist... 79... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 3... Breeders Futurity... 1 1/16M... Keeneland...Brody s Cause... 88... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 3... Champagne... 1M... Belmont...Greenpointcrusader... 94... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 4... Grey... 1 1/16M (S)... Woodbine...Riker... 85... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 31... BC Juvenile... 1 1/16M... Keeneland...Nyquist... 89... 20...8... 4...2 Nov. 21... Delta Downs Jackpot... 1 1/16M... Delta Downs...Exaggerator... 92... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 28... Remsen... 1 1/8M... Aqueduct...Mohaymen... 94... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 28... Kentucky Jockey Club... 1 1/16M... Churchill Downs...Airoforce... 87... 10...4... 2...1 Dec. 19... Los Alamitos Futurity... 1 1/16M... Los Alamitos...Mor Spirit... 88... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 2... Jerome... 1 mile 70 yds... Aqueduct...Flexibility... 90... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 9... Sham... 1M... Santa Anita...Collected... 80... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 16... Lecomte... 1 mile 70 yds... Fair Grounds...Mo Tom... 88... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 18... Smarty Jones... 1M... Oaklawn Park...Discreetness... 83... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 30... Holy Bull... 1 1/16M... Gulfstream...Mohaymen... 95... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 30... Withers... 1 1/16M... Aqueduct...Sunny Ridge... 87... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 6... Robert B. Lewis... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita Park...Mor Spirit... 92... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 13... El Camino Real Deby... 1 1/8M... Golden Gate...Frank Conversation... 86... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 15... Southwest... 1 1/16M... Oaklawn Park...Suddenbreakingnews... 93... 10...4... 2...1
Kentucky Derby Championship Series DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK...WINNER... BEYER...1ST... 2ND...3RD...4TH Feb. 20... Risen Star... 1 1/16M... Fair Grounds...Gun Runner...90... 50...20... 10...5 Feb. 27... Fountain of Youth... 1 1/16M... Gulfstream...Mohaymen...95... 50...20... 10...5 March 5... Gotham... 1 1/16M... Aqueduct... 50...20... 10...5 March 12... Tampa Bay Derby... 1 1/16M... Tampa Bay Downs... 50...20... 10...5 March 12... San Felipe... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita... 50...20... 10...5 March 19... Rebel... 1 1/16M... Oaklawn... 50...20... 10...5 March 20... Sunland Derby... 1 1/8M... Sunland Park... 50...20... 10...5 March 26... Louisiana Derby... 1 1/8M... Fair Grounds... 100...40... 20...10 March 26... UAE Derby... 1 3/16M... Meydan... 100...40... 20...10 April 2... Florida Derby... 1 1/8M... Gulfstream... 100...40... 20...10 April 2... Spiral... 1 1/8M... Turfway Park... 50...20... 10...5 April 9... Wood Memorial... 1 1/8M... Aqueduct... 100...40... 20...10 April 9... Blue Grass... 1 1/8M... Keeneland... 100...40... 20...10 April 9... Santa Anita Derby... 1 1/8M... Santa Anita... 100...40... 20...10 April 16... Arkansas Derby... 1 1/8M... Oaklawn Park... 100...40... 20...10 April 16... Lexington... 1 1/16M... Keeneland... 10...4... 2...1
Kentucky Derby 2016 Point Standings (through March 1) NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS 1... Mohaymen... Kiaran McLaughlin... 70...$760,350 2... Gun Runner... Steve Asmussen... 51...249,200 3... Nyquist... Doug O Neill... 30...1,700,000 4... Mor Spirit... Bob Baffert... 24...336,800 5... Mo Tom... Tom Amoss... 22...288,326 6... Forevamo... Al Stall Jr.... 20...210,000 7... Zulu... Todd Pletcher... 20...79,200 8... Sunny Ridge... Jason Servis... 18...505,600 9... Exaggerator... Keith Desormeaux... 16...980,000 10... Flexibility... Chad Brown... 15...232,500 11... Brody s Cause... Dale Romans... 14...500,000 12... Greenpointcrusader... Dominick Schettino... 14...369,300 13... Swipe... Keith Desormeaux... 12...597,130 14... Fellowship... Stanley Gold... 12...115,590 15... Collected... Bob Baffert... 11...105,000 16... Airoforce... Mark Casse... 10...444,080 17... Suddenbreakingnews... Donnie Von Hemel... 10...410,000 18... Cocked and Loaded... Larry Rivelli... 10...280,840 19... Discreetness... Williams Fires... 10...246,153 20... Frank Conversation... Doug O Neill... 10...199,000 21... Riker... Nick Gonzalez... 10...182,375 22... Voricity... James Lawrence II... 8...150,000 23... Rated R Superstar... Kenny McPeek... 6...80,200 24... Kasseopia... Graham Motion... 6...46,809 25... Awesome Speed... Alan Goldberg... 5...140,560 26... Candy My Boy... Roger Brueggemann... 5...16,000 27... Toews on Ice... Bob Baffert... 4...228,900 28... Whitmore... Ron Moquett... 4...120,000 29... Tom s Ready... Dallas Stewart... 4...70,670... +Tusk... Graham Motion... 4...40,250 + - not nominated to Triple Crown NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS STAKES EARNINGS... +Gordy Florida... Kenny Smith... 4...31,111 30... Uncle Lino... Gary Sherlock... 4...30,000 31... Let s Meet in Rio... Bob Baffert... 4...23,000 32... Harlan Punch... Tom Amoss... 2...138,000 33... Found Money... Doug O Neill... 2...135,000... +Hollywood Don... Peter Miller... 2...96,250 34... I malreadythere... Jerry Hollendorfer... 2...88,000 35... Sail Ahoy... Shug McGaughey III... 2...60,000 36... American Dubai... Rodney Richards... 2...50,000... +Portfolio Manager... Chad Brown... 2...50,000... +Tizzarunner... Mark Casse... 2...40,948 37... Gift Box... Chad Brown... 2...40,000 38... Adventist... Leah Gyarmati... 2...25,000 39... In Equality... Leah Gyarmati... 2...24,000 40... Uncle Walter... Mike Maker... 2...20,000 41... I Will Score... Jerry Hollendorfer... 2...18,000 42... Synchrony... Donnie Von Hemel... 2...16,112 43... Unbridled Outlaw... Dale Romans... 2...14,100 44... Laoban... Eric Guillot... 2...12,000 45... Dressed in Hermes... Janet Armstrong... 1...15,900 46... Destin... Todd Pletcher... 1...128,000 47... Bird of Trey... John Servis... 1...41,111 48... Van Damme... Robert Gorham... 1...31,790... +Rare Candy... David Hofmans... 1...30,250... +Sticksstatelydude... Greg Burchell... 1...25,000 49... Urlacher... Eoin Harty... 1...21,000 50... Conquest Big E... Mark Casse... 1...17,325... +San Dimas... Eoin Harty... 1...12,000 51... Luna de Loco... Steve Asmussen... 1...8,611 52... Conquest Windycity... Mark Casse... 1...7,050