Ecological network indicators of ecosystem status and change in the Baltic Sea Maciej T. Tomczak(1), Johanna J. Heymans (2), Johanna Yletyinen (3,4), Susa Niiranen (4), Saskia A. Otto (4) and Thorsten Blenckner (4) 1) Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden 2) Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunbeg, Oban, United Kingdom 3) Nordic Centre for Research on Marine Ecosystems and Resources under Climate Change (NorMER), Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden 4) Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Baltic Sea
Characteris*cs large semi- enclosed brackish water body low diversity high produc9vity eutrophica9on high fishing pressure climate influences through temperature and salinity irregular inflows from North Sea stra9fied
Concept: Regime Shifts Ecosystem state Drivers over 9me Folke et al 2004 hap://ocean9ppingpoints.org
Ecosystem dynamics regime shi4 1974-2006 Food- web reorganisa*on
Casini M et al. PNAS 2009;106:197-202
Regime Shift at the Baltic Sea Cod Herring Pseudocalanus sp. Sprat mean weight Acartia sp. Temora sp. Sprat Variables (sorted by their loading on the 1st PC-Axis) HERSSB CODSSB HERWC3 CODR2 SPRWC3 Pseudo_Sum Pseudo_Spr HERR1 cyano_bb_sum dia_gb_spr Chla_BBSum Temora_Sum cyano_gb_sum dino_bb_sum dia_gb_sum Acartia_Sum dino_gb_sum Cod_F46 dia_bb_sum cyano_bb_spr CODWC4 Chla_BBSpr Chla_GBSpr cyano_gb_spr SPRR1 dia_bb_spr Chla_GBSum dino_gb_spr Her_F36 Spr_F35 dino_bb_spr Temora_Spr SPRSSB Traffic Light Plot Acartia_Spr 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 < 0.2 quintile < 0.4 quintile < 0.6 quintile < 0.8 quintile > 0.8 quintile missing value Years ICES/HECLOM WGIAB 2013
Ecological regime shifts in the Baltic Sea - due to overexploitation and climate change 0.4 2004 PC2 (12.4%) 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4 1979 1977 1980 1996 1998 1995 1978 1997 1974 2003 1994 1981 1985 > 1993 2001 1999 1976 1974-87 1987 1975 2000 2002 1982 1983 1986 1984 1988 1993 1991 1992 1988-93 1989 1990 Möllmann et al. 2009-0.4-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 PC1 (24.0 %)
F F F fishing climate climate+nutrients 1.5 1 0.5 0 cod F 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 herring F 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Seals sprat F 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1.25 August T 1.2 RV cod RV cod RV 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Cod adult 2,3 yrs 0,1 yrs larvae Herring adult 0,1,2 yrs Sprat adult 0,1 yrs T (anomaly) salinity (anomaly) 1.15 1.1 1.05 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 salinity 0.65 1 hypoxia Mysids 0.6 0.55 0.5 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 0.95 0.9 area (inverse) 0.85 0.8 0.75 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Macro- zoobenthos Micro ZP Acar9a spp. Temora sp. Other ZP Pseudocal sp. Meio- zoobenthos T (anomaly) 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 spring T production (anomaly) 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 primary production primary prod. 0.8 1 0.6 0.5 Detritus(s) Cyano- bacteria 0.4 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Phytoplankton 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Detritus(w) Tomczak et al. 2012
Adult cod - diet composition changes (model) 100% 4.3 90% 4.2 Diet composi*on of Ad. Cod 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 4.1 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 TL of Ad. Cod 0% 3.4 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Herring Sprat Macrobenthos Canibalism Mysids TL of Ad. Cod
Indices and ENA (1974-2006) 1. Total System Throupout (TST) 2. Relative Ascendance (A/C) Network Indices 3. Average Mutual Information (AMI) 4. Entropy (H) 5. Finn Cycling Index (FCI) 6. Predatory Cycling Index (PCI) 7. Mean Path Length (MPL) 8. Proportional Flow to Detritus (PFD) 9. Total biomass per Total Production ratio (ToTB/ToTP) Recycle and Structure 10. The Total Production per Total respiration ratio (ToTP/ ToTR) 11. Total catches (TC) 12. Primary Production Required per PP (PPR/PP) 13. Mean Trophic Level of Catch (mtlc) Fisheries effect 14. Kempston Q
Ecological Network Analysis The overhead (Ø) is the fraction of a system s capacity and it indicates the system s energy in reserve (Monaco and Ulanowicz, 1997) Proposed Redundancy (R=internal Ø) as an index of system resilience R = n n i= 1 j= 1 ( T ij ) log n j= 1 T T ij 2 ij n i= 1 T ij
Pressures - PC1 model forcing Late 1980s Late 1990s State - PC1 model responce - biomass Late 1980s
Biomass Pressures
Regime shift Resilience
Regime shift Resilience and presures 52 R [% of Capacity] 1983 1982 1977 51 1976 1978 1979 1981 1984 1986 1980 1974 1987 1985 1975 50 1988 49 1995 1994 1989 1996 48 1993 47 46 1990 1991 1992 1997 1998 2003 1999 2005 2006 2004 2001 2002 45-1.5-1 - 0.5 0 0.5 Overall forcing index 1 1.5 2
Regime shift Resilience and presures 52 R [% of Capacity] 1983 1982 1977 51 1976 1978 1979 1981 1984 1986 1980 1974 1987 1985 1975 50 1988 49 1995 1994 1989 1996 48 1993 47 46 1990 1991 1992 1997 1998 2003 1999 2005 2006 2004 2001 2002 45-1.5-1 - 0.5 0 0.5 Overall forcing index 1 1.5 2
Conclusios Adrupt changes at system (Low resilience) Food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways Ecosystem topology also changed from a web-like structure to a linearized food-web ENA indices - very informative but: not operational indicators model dependent reference points
Thank you Thank you for prof Chris9an Möllmann and ICES/HELCOM Working Group on Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the Bal9c Sea