New MetroStats Missing Opportunities: Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the Twin Cities Metro in 2016 10/2/2017 Community Development Committee
What s New American Community Survey data released (9/14) A portrait of 2016, based on a sample of 2% of housing units Available for geographic areas with at least 65,000 people Metropolitan areas, not census tracts MetroStats released Missing Opportunities: Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the Twin Cities Metro in 2016 2
Key findings The next chapter in a well-known story Our metro area has some of the highest overall rates of employment and homeownership in the country Our metro area also has some of the largest disparities by race and ethnicity in the country Disparities are particularly striking for Black residents compared to White residents 3
How big are our disparities? Disparity vs. Whites: Rank among 25 largest metro areas (1 = largest) All people of color Black Asian Latino American Indian Employment 1 1 1 2 (tied) 1 (tied) Poverty 1 1 1 5 (tied) 4 Homeownership 1 1 4 4 (tied) 7 (tied) Source: American Community Survey, 2016 one-year estimates 4
Media coverage of disparities 5
Gains since 2013 2013-2016 trend White, non-latino Black Asian Latino American Indian Employment Poverty Homeownership Source: American Community Survey, 2016 one-year estimates 6 Trend is statistically significant (95% confidence) Trend is suggestive but needs confirmation with subsequent data releases
but only back to 2000 levels Employment-Population Ratio 82% 83% 62% 66% 60% 65% 80% 82% 77% 71% 67% 64% 59% 61% 65% 1990 2000 2010 2013 2016 White, non-latino All people of color Black 7
but only back to 2000 levels 37% 36% 33% 31% Poverty Rate 21% 26% 26% 24% 20% 28% 6% 4% 7% 6% 5% 1990 2000 2010 2013 2016 White, non-latino All people of color Black 8
but only back to 2000 levels Homeownership Rate 76% 77% 75% 75% 71% 40% 41% 40% 39% 40% 31% 32% 25% 26% 24% 1990 2000 2010 2013 2016 White, non-latino All people of color Black 9
Disparities are persistent Rank of employment disparity (darker = larger disparity) 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All people of color Black Asian Latino American Indian (no data) 10 KEY #1 (largest disparity) #2 (second-largest disparity) #3, #4, #5 (rest of top five) Not in top five
Disparities are persistent Rank of poverty disparity (darker = larger disparity) 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All people of color Black Asian Latino American Indian (no data) 11 KEY #1 (largest disparity) #2 (second-largest disparity) #3, #4, #5 (rest of top five) Not in top five
Disparities are persistent Rank of homeownership disparity (darker = larger disparity) 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All people of color Black Asian Latino American Indian 12 KEY #1 (largest disparity) #2 (second-largest disparity) #3, #4, #5 (rest of top five) Not in top five
Context for disparities Disparities are not due simply to demographic differences between White residents and residents of color Diving Deeper series (April 2016) Behind the Curve (September 2016) Disparities are not due simply to the fact that our White residents are doing so well (See next slide) 13
Context for disparities Indicators: Rank among 25 largest metro areas (1 = most positive) All people of color Black Asian Latino American Indian Employment 5 14 5 3 8 (tied) Poverty 21 25 25 4 13 Homeownership 23 25 18 15 13 Source: American Community Survey, 2016 one-year estimates 14
Effect of reducing disparities 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 How many more employed people if disparities were eliminated? 23,500 41,700 Actual 55,800 Given forecasts and existing disparities 104,500 20,000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 15
Report available at: metrocouncil.org/metrostats 16
Upcoming Research presentations October 16: Portrait of our residents with disabilities November: Affordable Housing Construction in 2016 Housing Performance Scores 17