Estimation of the future change of anchovy recruitment in response to global warming off western coast of Kyushu, Japan

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Estimation of the future change of anchovy recruitment in response to global warming off western coast of Kyushu, Japan Aigo Takeshige, Shingo Kimura, Yoichi Miyake, Hideaki Nakata and Takashi Kitagawa Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo Graduate School of Frontier Sciences/Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo Graduate School of Fisheries Science and Environmental Studies, Nagasaki University

Anchovy stocks around Japanese waters Sea of Japan East China Sea 7% Annual landings Seto Inland Sea Tsushima Warm Current % Pacific Annual landings

The western Kyushu Spawning ground of mackerel and tuna Anchovy as a prey for predator Role as a key species in ecosystems

Climate change and anchovy Catch ( 4 t) 7 6 5 4 Catch Stock biomass of the Tsushima Warm Current 96 97 98 99 5 5 5 5 Stock biomass ( 4 t) SST SST anomaly Warm-regime Warm-regime Cold-regime - - - 96 97 98 99 Decadal fluctuations relating with the SST

Background Anchovy catch in the two fishing grounds Catch ( 4 t) 5 4 Offshore zone Increase SST anomaly SST variation Warm-regime Warm-regime Cold-regime - - - 96 97 98 99 96 97 98 99 Year Offshore zone Coastal zone 4 Coastal zone.5.5.5.5 96 97 98 99 Year Decrease Temperature change induced by regime shift is not enough to explain the local catch fluctuation

Background Catch ( 4 t) 5 4 -Offshore zone- Catch 4 -Coastal zone- Transport success (%) 9 8 7 6 5 4 96 97 98 99 Shift of the spawning ground Weakened Tsushima Warm Current Transport success Factors Changes in the larval transport success leads decadal fluctuation in the catch.4... 96 97 98 99 Shift of the spawning ground Weakened coastward current

Hypothesis and Objective Spawning ground Important for the recruitment and stable fishery Global warming Connectivity Nursery and fishing ground Hydrodynamic and biological conditions Recruitment and fishery Estimating the effect of global warming on the larval transport and survival

Global warming scenario MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). IPCC A scenario Estimated SST change in the western Kyushu 9 after global warming SST ( C) 8 7 6 5 95 99 before global warming 4 4 C increase 95 5 Year Compare the transport success and growth between before/after global warming

Particle tracking simulation -Model domain- Hydrodynamic model (Delft D-FLOW) Resolution : km,5σ-layers Initial condition :MIROC Lateral boundary :MIROC (west/south) :Water level (east/north) Kyushu Surface boundary :Wind-stress,heat flux Period :95,Jan. May Depth (m) The model validation was tested by our previous study (please visit poster session)

Particle release location Based on the spawning temperature and the modeled SST in each year. Spawning temperature range April:.7 9.6 C,May: 5.7. C Lowest spawning temperature Transport success (%), particles release points Track for days Offshore zone Coastal zone Particles in the fishing ground Total released particle Highest spawning temperature

Result: larval distribution Before Present fishing ground After 7. 6. 5. 4.. Kernel density ( - ). Transport success (%).. 5... 5. Coastal zone Offshore zone Coastal zone Offshore zone Why the distribution shifted northward? Transport success (%).

Environmental change affecting the transport Strong Tsushima Warm Current transports particle to the Sea of Japan Northward shift of the spawning ground unfavorable place to reach the fishing ground Volume transport (Sv) Tsushima Warm Current.5.5.5.5 Before After Location of the spawning ground 4 Latitude ( N).5.5 How will the growth and survival change after global warming? Before After

Estimation of the growth rate and food environment Growth rate (mm day - ).7.6.5.4 Growth rate Calculated from the SST Yasue and Takasuka (9) Before Higher After Higher survival rate during the transport period Depth (m) 4 6 8 4 6 Food environment Mixing layer depth as a proxy Before After Shallower Less nutrient,low primary production Low food availability Food availability limit the growth rate under a higher temperature (> 9 C,Takahashi and Watanabe 4) Limit the growth and survival

Anchovy as a prey Effect on other species

Effect of shift of anchovy distribution on the bluefin tuna Juvenile bluefin tuna Modeled anchovy larvae -Present- Overlap in the distribution of bluefin tuna and anchovy -Global warming- Shift of the anchovy distribution and Low survival of anchovy Kitagawa et al. (6) Possibly effect on the recruit of the predatory fish

Conclusion Physical change Intensified Tsushima Warm Current Northward shift of the spawning ground Weakened water mixing Effect on anchovy Global warming in the western Kyushu Change the connectivity between the spawning and nursery ground Low survival due to the limited food availability Anchovy Prey Spatial mismatch Predatory fish Ecosystem modeling will improve the future state of anchovy recruitment and ecosystems

Thank you for your attention

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