Demographic processes Łukasz Byra Demography November 9, 2018
World population
World population Before the year 10 000 b.c. 5-10 million Around the year 500 b.c. no more than 150 million In the year 1000 about 300 million 1000-1600 world population doubles (to about 600 million) 1600-2000 a ten-fold increase (to 6 billion) 2nd half of the XX-th century: demographic explosion
Table 1. Estimated world population since the year 0 to 2100 Year Population in billion Year Population in billion 0 0.30 1950 2.52 1000 0.31 1960 3.02 1250 0.40 1970 3.70 1500 0.50 1980 4.44 1750 0.79 1990 5.27 1800 0.98 2000 6.14 1850 1.26 2010 6.95 1900 1.65 2020 7.79 1910 1.75 2040 9.21 1920 1.86 2060 10.22 1930 2.07 2080 10.82 1940 2.30 2100 11.18 Source: UN (1999) The world at six billion; UN (2017) World population prospects.
Table 2. Milestones in the process of inhabiting Earth according to UN prognosis in 1999 and in 2017 World population exceeded: World population will probably exceed: 1 billion in 1804 8 billion in 2023 (12 years later) 2 billion in 1927 (123 years later) 3 billion in 1960 (33 years later) 4 billion in 1974 (14 years later) 5 billion in 1987 (13 years later) 6 billion in 1999 (12 years later) 9 billion in 2037 (14 years later) 10 billion in 2055 (18 years later) 11 billion in 2088 (33 years later) In 1999 the UN estimated that World population will exceed: 9 billion in 2054 7 billion in 2011 (12 years later) 10 billion in 2183 Source: UN (1999) World Population Projections to 2150; UN (2017) World population prospects.
Figure 1. World population and its growth, 1900-2100 Million 100 90 80 12 10 Billion 70 60 8 50 6 40 30 4 20 10 2 0 0 Average yearly growth (in million) World population (in billion) Source: UN (1999) The World at Six Billion; UN (2017) World population prospects.
Figure 2. Shares of continents in World population, 1750-2100 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Asia Africa Europe Latin America North America Oceania Source: UN (1999) The World at Six Billion; UN (2017) World population prospects.
Table 3. Main demographic characteristics of the world and its regions, 2010-2015 Region Population (2015 in million) Annual population growth rate (in %) e(0) Median age (in years) Share of people aged below 15 years (in %) Share of people aged 60 years and more (in %) World 7,383 1,18 70,8 29,6 26,1 12,3 2,52 Developed countries 1,253 0,29 78,4 41,1 16,4 23,8 1,67 TFR Developing countries 6,129 1,37 69,1 27,8 28,1 9,9 2,65 Africa 1,194 2,59 60,2 19,4 41,0 5,4 4,72 Latin America and Caribbean 632 1,13 74,6 29,2 25,6 11,2 2,14 North America 356 0,75 79,2 37,9 18,9 20,7 1,85 Asia 4,419 1,05 71,8 30,3 24,6 11,6 2,2 Europe 740 0,10 77,2 41,6 15,8 23,9 1,6 Oceania 39 1,53 77,9 32,8 23,6 16,5 2,41 Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
World population: demographic structures Until XVIII w. similar structures all over the world People aged 65+ accounted for less than 1/100 of the population The number of men was equal to or higher than the number of women Currently there is a large difference between populations The share of children and youth is significantly smaller, and the share of people aged 65+ much higher than before The number of men is still greater than the number of women (102:100), however there is large variation between populations Arab countries (120:100) Former USSR countries (85-87:100) Large differences between developed and developing countries; less developed countries (according to UN classification) were populated by 68% of world population in 1950 76% of world population in 1980 83% of world population in 2017
Fertility
Fertility A measure of fertility Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) is decreasing all over the world Current TFR = 2,5 TFR in 1965-70 = 5 Differences between continents are narrowing, with Africa lagging behind with its significantly higher fertility (TFR = 4,7) Differences between countries are significant 10 countries with the highest fertility: TFR > 6 10 countries with the lowest fertility : TFR < 1,35 In 2005-2010 in 38% of the countries inhabited by 47% of the world population TFR < 2,1
Figure 3. TFR by regions by development level, 1950-2100 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 World More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
Figure 4. TFR by continents, 1950-2100 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean North America Oceania Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
Table 4. Population change1950-2015 and its components 2010-2015 by continents Obszar Stopa wzrostu Przyrost naturalny 1950-1980 1980-2010 2010-2015 Migracja netto Świat 1,88 1,48 1,18 1,18 0,00 Afryka 2,47 2,61 2,59 2,64-0,05 Azja 2,11 1,54 1,05 1,07-0,02 Europa 0,78 0,20 0,10-0,01 0,11 Ameryka Łacińska Ameryka Północna 2,56 1,65 1,13 1,19-0,06 1,29 1,00 0,75 0,42 0,33 Oceania 1,99 1,55 1,53 1,05 0,48 Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
Mortality
Mortality A measure of mortality life expectancy of a newborn e(0) everywhere in the world is close to 70 years Exception: Africa (60 years) Variation is greater with respect to infant mortality Several-fold distance to the leading continents Africa: more than ten-fold distance Differences between countries in life expectancy of a newborn is high Highest in Asian (Japan, Israel) and European countries (Switzerland, Italy), and in Australia ( e(0)>80 ) Lowest in African countries (Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Zambia) and in Afghanistan ( e(0)<49 )
Figure 5. Life expectancy of a newborn e(0) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2050 2050-2055 2055-2060 2060-2065 2065-2070 2070-2075 2075-2080 2080-2085 2085-2090 2090-2095 2095-2100 World More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
Figure 6. Life expectancy at 60, 65 and 80 years 25 20 15 10 5 0 World More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions 60 65 80 Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
Figure 7. Survival curves 100 000 90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 0 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100+ World More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed regions Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
Table 5. Selected measures of mortality in 1970-75 and in 2010-15 by continents Region e(0) IMR DR(0-4) 1970-1975 2010-2015 1970-1975 2010-2015 1970-1975 2010-2015 World 58,14 70,79 95 35 139 48 Africa 46,51 60,23 134 57 220 87 Asia 56,51 71,81 101 31 144 38 Europe 70,62 77,20 25 5 29 6 Latin America North America 61,15 74,66 81 19 112 24 71,56 79,17 18 6 21 7 Oceania 66,87 77,93 40 21 56 26 Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
Population Ageing
Population ageing A measure of population ageing - median age was increasing everywhere in the world in 1950-2015, except from Africa Differences between continents are sometimes huge: Africa More than half of its population are children and teenagers Elderly are outnumbered by children 1:7 Europe Half of its population is more than 40 years old Elderly significantly outnumber children Differences between countries are even larger Youngest countries are in Africa (median age below 17 years) Oldest countries are in Europe (Germany, Italy, Austria, Finland, Slovenia) and in Asia (Japan, Hong Kong), where median age is more than 42 years (even 45 years)
Age structure in the world 1950 2015 2100 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 200 100 0 100 200 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 400 200 0 200 400 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 400 200 0 200 400 Men Women Men Women Men Women Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017
Age structure in Africa 1950 2015 2100 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 20 10 0 10 20 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 100 50 0 50 100 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 200 100 0 100 200 Men Women Men Women Men Women Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017
Age structure in Europe 1950 2015 2100 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 Men Women Men Women Men Women Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017
Figure 8. Median age by continents 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017
Figure 9. Median age in the world and its determinants: TFR and e(0), 1955-2100 90 6 80 70 5 60 4 50 40 3 30 2 20 10 1 0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Median age e(0) TFR 0 Źródło: ONZ, World Population Prospects 2017.
Figure 10. Age dependency ratio in the world, 1950-2100 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Całkowity 0-14 65+ Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
Table 6. Share of continents in the world population in 2015 r. (in percent) and median age and its change since 1950 Region Share of age group (in percent) 0-14 15-59 60+ total 80+ Median age Change of median age World 26,1 61,6 12,3 1,7 29,6 6 Africa 41,0 53,6 5,4 0,5 19,4 0,1 Asia 24,6 63,8 11,6 1,4 30,3 8,2 Europe 15,8 60,4 23,9 4,7 41,6 12,7 Latin America North America 25,6 63,2 11,2 1,6 29,2 9,3 18,9 60,4 20,7 3,8 37,9 7,9 Oceania 23,6 60,0 16,5 3,0 32,8 4,9 Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2017.
Urbanization
Urbanization World population living in cities: 10% in 1900 30% in 1950 54% in 2014 66% in 2050 Most urbanized regions of the world North America (82%) Latin America and the Caribbean (80%) Europe (73%) Least urbanized regions of the world are Africa (40%) and Asia (48%)
Urbanization Rural population Slow increase since0 1950 Is expected to peak in the next couple of years Currently is 3.4 billion and is expected to fall to 3.2 billion by 2050 Almost 90% of the world s rural population lives in Africa and Asia Urban population Sudden increase from 746 million in 1950 to 3.9 billion in 2014 54% of the world s urban population lives in Asia, 14% in Europe, 13% in Latin America and the Caribbean By 2050 the world s population living in cities is expected to increase by 2.5 billion Half of the world s population lives in rural areas or in cities up to 500 thousand inhabitants 1 per 8 people lives in one of 28 megacities (cities with more than 10 million inhabitants)
Figure 11. World population living in cities and in rural ares (in billion), 1950-2050 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Ludność miejska Ludność wiejska Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Figure 12. Urban and rural population by continents (in million), 1950-2050 Africa Asia Europe 1 600 3 500 700 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 0 Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Figure 13. Urban and rural population by continents (in million), 1950-2050 Ameryka Łac. i Karaiby Ameryka Północna Oceania 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Figure 14. Share of people living in cities by continents, 1950-2050 Afryka Azja Europa 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Ludność Urban miejska popul. Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Figure 15. Share of people living in cities by continents, 1950-2050 100% Ameryka Łac. i Karaiby 100% Ameryka Północna 100% Oceania 90% 90% 90% 80% 80% 80% 70% 70% 70% 60% 60% 60% 50% 50% 50% 40% 40% 40% 30% 30% 30% 20% 20% 20% 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Ludność Urban popul. miejska Ludność Rural popul. wiejska Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Figure 16. Share of continents in urban and rural world population, 1950-2050 Urban population Rural population 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Azja Afryka Azja Afryka Europa Ameryka Łacińska i Karaiby Europa Ameryka Łacińska i Karaiby Ameryka Północna Oceania Ameryka Północna Oceania Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Tables 7 and 8. 10 biggest metropolies in 1950 (left) and in 2000 (right) Metropolis Country Popul. (million) Metropolis Country Popul. (million) New York USA 12,34 Tokyo Japan 34,45 Tokyo Japan 11,27 Osaka Japan 18,66 London UK 8,36 Mexico City Mexico 18,46 Osaka Japan 7,01 New York US 17,81 Paris France 6,28 São Paulo Brazil 17,01 Moscov USSR 5,36 Bombay India 16,37 Buenos Aires Argentina 5,10 Delhi India 15,73 Chicago US 5,00 Shanghai China 13,96 Calcuta India 4,51 Cairo Egypt 13,63 Shanghai China 4,30 Calcuta India 13,06 Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Tables 9 and 10. 10 biggest metropolies in 2015 (left) and in 2030 (right) Metropolis Country Popul. (million) Metropolis Country Popul. (million) Tokyo Japan 38,00 Tokyo Japan 37,19 Delhi India 25,70 Delhi India 36,06 Shanghai China 23,74 Shanghai China 30,75 São Paulo Brazil 21,07 Bombay India 27,80 Bombay India 21,04 Bejing China 27,71 Mexico City Mexico 21,00 Dhaka Bangladesh 27,37 Bejing China 20,38 Karachi Pakistan 24,84 Osaka Japan 20,24 Cairo Egypt 24,50 Cairo Egypt 18,77 Lagos Nigeria 24,24 New York US 18,59 Mexico City Mexico 23,86 Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Figure 17. Population (in million) of 10 biggest metropolies in 2015, 1950-2030. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Tokyo Delhi Shanghai São Paulo Bombay Mexico City Bejing Osaka Cairo New York Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Share of people living in cities and the biggest agglomerations, 1970 Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Share of people living in cities and the biggest agglomerations, 1990 Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Share of people living in cities and the biggest agglomerations, 2014 Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Share of people living in cities and the biggest agglomerations, 2030 Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Rate of population increase in agglomerations, 1970-1990 Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Rate of population increase in agglomerations, 1990-2014 Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.
Rate of population increase in agglomerations, 2014-2030 Source: UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2014.