NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions 7.24 BYE 10/9/2016 14 H New York Giants 8.1 10/16/2016 7 H Dallas Cowboys 9.2 10/20/2016 4 H Chicago Bears 7.26 10/30/2016 10 A Atlanta Falcons 7.36 11/6/2016 7 H Indianapolis Colts 8.62 11/13/2016 7 A Tennessee Titans 6.19 11/20/2016 7 A Washington Redskins 7.09 11/28/2016 8 A Philadelphia Eagles 6.78 12/4/2016 6 H Houston Texans 8.5 12/11/2016 7 H Seattle Seahawks 10.59 12/18/2016 7 A Chicago Bears 7.26 12/24/2016 6 H Minnesota Vikings 9.55 1/1/2017 8 A Detroit Lions 7.24 # of Opponents with 8 or more projected wins Teams with 8 or more proj. wins Division game Three home games in a row O/U projected wins for the opponent Days between games Three or more road games in a row 2
PROJECTED LINE SAMPLE WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % 1 9/11/2016 H New England -5.5 0.679 5:30 2 9/18/2016 H Tampa Bay -9 0.789 1:05 3 9/25/2016 A Buffalo -2.5 0.512 10:00 AM 4 10/2/2016 H Los Angeles -7 0.754 1:25 5 10/6/2016 A San Francisco -6 0.733 5:25 6 10/17/2016 H NY Jets -4 0.668 5:30 7 10/23/2016 H Seattle -1 0.509 5:30 8 10/30/2016 A Carolina 3.5 0.402 1:25 10 11/13/2016 H San Francisco -10.5 0.792 2:25 11 11/20/2016 A Minnesota 1.5 0.476 11:00 AM 12 11/27/2016 A Atlanta -2.5 0.512 11:00 AM 13 12/4/2016 H Washington -6.5 0.634 2:25 14 12/11/2016 A Miami -3 0.583 11:00 AM 15 12/18/2016 H New Orleans -9 0.789 2:05 16 12/24/2016 A Seattle 3.5 0.402 2:25 17 1/1/2017 A Los Angeles 0.500 2:25 For week 17 I gave each team a 50% chance of winning their game seeing lines can be very different in week 17 based on motivation the last week of the season. Projected lines from CG Technologies Las Vegas SU Win probability based on past performance for these lines 1983-2015 Start time for team (EST) Projected wins 9.734 3
NFC EAST SCHEDULE Pythagorean Theorem 2016 SU Margin 2016 Actual Record 2016 Adjusted Record Difference Close Games <=7 pts Team W L T W L Wins Losses Dallas 13 3 0 10.9 5.1 2.1 7 3 NY Giants 11 5 0 8.8 7.2 2.2 8 3 Washington 8 7 1 8.3 7.7-0.3 6 3 Philadelphia 7 9 0 9.0 7.0-2.0 1 6 Pythagorean Theorem The Pythagorean theorem is a formula that calculates a team s points scored and allowed into an expected winning percentage. Based on this formula for the 2016 season, Dallas and the Giants over achieved by over two wins last year. Meanwhile, Philadelphia under achieved by two wins last year. Based on this there is a chance the Giants and Dallas could take a step back this year and the Eagles could improve. But, a step back for Dallas and NY doesn t mean they can t exceed their OU numbers for the year. Obviously offseason moves, injuries, etc will also play into this seasons wins and losses. In addition to over achieving by more than two wins last year the Cowboys and Giants also were lucky in close games going 7-3 & 8-3 respectively. Washington also was 6-3 but Philadelphia was very unlucky, going 1-6 SU in close games. Unlike some really bad teams who may not be able to reverse their luck, Philadelphia is the kind of team who can change that luck this year. If those records reverse themselves this year, Philly stands a chance to be near the top of the division. TEAM PROJ WINS TOTAL OPP WINS Schedule Rank PROJ WINS BASED ON PRED LINES Dallas Cowboys 9.65 133.29 6 9.83 New York Giants 8.97 130.95 16 8.51 Washington Redskins 7.55 133.94 3 7.70 Philadelphia Eagles 8.3 130.54 18 7.48 Update: I will update all numbers shortly and post on the website. The table to the left shows projected wins as set by the odds makers for 2017. The expected win total is an average from the over and under lines for each team, factoring in the extra juice typically applied to these lines. Washington s projected over under win total is 7.55 wins. When factoring in all of their opponents projected win totals, they add up to 133.94 wins and rank as the 3rd toughest schedule. Dallas has the 6th toughest schedule. Based on projected lines for all games we can develop a projected win pct based on those lines. Dallas is projected to win 9.83 wins vs their 9.65 win projection (Prior to Elliott suspension). As much as Philly appeared to underachieve last year and was only 1-6 SU in close games, they are projected to win only 7.48 wins versus their 8.30 win projection, which would lead to the under season wins. But, above we paint a picture for the over so this is probably a no play on Philadelphia. 4
Dallas WK DATE HA OPPONENT 11 1 9/10/2017 H NY Giants 8.97 2 9/17/2017 7 A Denver 8.2 3 9/25/2017 8 A Arizona 8.55 4 10/1/2017 6 H LA Rams 5.25 5 10/8/2017 7 H Green Bay 10.25 6 BYE 10/22/2017 14 A San Francisco 4.8 8 10/29/2017 7 A Washington 7.55 9 11/5/2017 7 H Kansas City 9.1 10 11/12/2017 7 A Atlanta 9.55 11 11/19/2017 7 H Philadelphia 8.3 12 11/23/2017 4 H LA Chargers 7.65 13 11/30/2017 7 H Washington 7.55 14 12/10/2017 10 A NY Giants 8.97 15 12/17/2017 7 A Oakland 9.8 16 12/24/2017 7 H Seattle 10.5 17 12/31/2017 7 A Philadelphia 8.3 Host Denver off a Monday night game Host SF off bye week 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H NY Giants 0 0 19 20 1 L T 2 A Washington 0 1 27 23 3.5 W W 3 H Chicago 0 2 31 17-6.5 W W 4 A San Francisco 1 2 24 17-1.5 W W 5 H Cincinnati 2 2 28 14 2.5 W W 6 A Green Bay 3 1 30 16 5 W W 8 H Philadelphia 4 2 29 23-5 W W 9 A Cleveland 0 8 35 10-7 W W 10 A Pittsburgh 4 4 35 30 3 W W 11 H Baltimore 5 4 27 17-7 W W 12 H Washington 6 3 31 26-5.5 W L 13 A Minnesota 6 5 17 15-3 W L 14 A NY Giants 8 4 7 10-3.5 L L 15 H Tampa Bay 8 5 26 20-7 W L 16 H Detroit 9 5 42 21-6.5 W W 17 A Philadelphia 6 9 13 27 6.5 L L 19 H Green Bay 11 6 31 34-5 L L Good WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H NY Giants -5 0.647 8:30pm 2 9/17/2017 A Denver 0 0.456 4:25pm 3 9/25/2017 A Arizona -2 0.520 8:30pm 4 10/1/2017 H LA Rams -12.5 0.825 1pm 5 10/8/2017 H Green Bay -3 0.594 4:25pm 7 10/22/2017 A San Francisco -8.5 0.722 4:05pm 8 10/29/2017 A Washington -2.5 0.516 4:25pm 9 11/5/2017 H Kansas City -6.5 0.642 4:25pm 10 11/12/2017 A Atlanta 1 0.483 4:25pm 11 11/19/2017 H Philadelphia -7 0.756 8:30pm 12 11/23/2017 H LA Chargers -10 0.840 4:30pm 13 11/30/2017 H Washington -7 0.756 8:25pm 14 12/10/2017 A NY Giants -1 0.527 4:25pm 15 12/17/2017 A Oakland 0 0.456 8:30pm 16 12/24/2017 H Seattle -3 0.594 4:25pm 17 12/31/2017 A Philadelphia 0.500 1pm 9.83 Travel to Washington with Redskins off Monday night game Host KC with Chiefs off Monday night game Host Chargers on Thanksgiving Travel to the Giants off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Travel to Philadelphia in last week with Eagles off Monday night game (extra days rest for Dallas) Bad May play first six games without Elliott Face Rams off a Monday night game and Rams off a Thursday game (extra 4 days rest for LA) Face GB with Packers off Thursday night game Host Philadelphia with Eagles off bye week Ugly Face 11 teams projected to win more than 8 games, including 4 of first 5 games and 7 of last 9 games Projected Wins Dallas projected win total is 9.65 but based on projected lines they are calculated to win 9.83 games. 5
NY Giants WK DATE HA OPPONENT 10 1 9/10/2017 A Dallas 9.65 2 9/18/2017 8 H Detroit 7.9 3 9/24/2017 6 A Philadelphia 8.3 4 10/1/2017 7 A Tampa Bay 8.2 5 10/8/2017 7 H LA Chargers 7.65 6 10/15/2017 7 A Denver 8.2 10/22/2017 7 H Seattle 10.5 8 BYE 9 11/5/2017 14 H LA Rams 5.25 10 11/12/2017 7 A San Francisco 4.8 11 11/19/2017 7 H Kansas City 9.1 12 11/23/2017 4 A Washington 7.55 13 12/3/2017 10 A Oakland 9.8 14 12/10/2017 7 H Dallas 9.65 15 12/17/2017 7 H Philadelphia 8.3 16 12/24/2017 7 A Arizona 8.55 17 12/31/2017 7 H Washington 7.55 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Dallas 5 0.353 8:30pm 2 9/18/2017 H Detroit -3 0.594 8:30pm 3 9/24/2017 A Philadelphia 1 0.483 1pm 4 10/1/2017 A Tampa Bay 2.5 0.466 4:05pm 5 10/8/2017 H LA Chargers -7 0.756 1pm 6 10/15/2017 A Denver 3 0.405 8:30pm 7 10/22/2017 H Seattle 0 0.541 4:25pm 9 11/5/2017 H LA Rams -8.5 0.809 1pm 10 11/12/2017 A San Francisco -4.5 0.638 4:25pm 11 11/19/2017 H Kansas City -2 0.565 1pm 12 11/23/2017 A Washington 1 0.483 8:30pm 13 12/3/2017 A Oakland 3 0.405 4:25pm 14 12/10/2017 H Dallas 1 0.473 4:25pm 15 12/17/2017 H Philadelphia -3.5 0.602 1pm 16 12/24/2017 A Arizona 2 0.435 4:25pm 17 12/31/2017 H Washington 0.500 1pm 8.51 Good Travel to Oakland off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Bad Travel to Philadelphia off Monday night game in week 3 Travel to Denver with Broncos off bye week Host Seattle and Kansas City with Seahawks and Chiefs off bye weeks Travel to Washington on a Thursday night Host Dallas with Cowboys off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Dallas) Ugly Begin and end their season facing teams projected to win more than 8 games in 5 of the first and last 7 games Projected Wins NY s projected win total is 8.97 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 8.51 games. 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A Dallas 0 0 20 19-1 W T 2 H New Orleans 0 1 16 13-4 W L 3 H Washington 0 2 27 29-3.5 L L 4 A Minnesota 3 0 10 24 4 L L 5 A Green Bay 2 1 16 23 7 L T 6 H Baltimore 3 2 27 23-3.5 W W 7 A Los Angeles 3 3 17 10-3 W W 9 H Philadelphia 4 3 28 23-3 W W 10 H Cincinnati 3 4 21 20 0 W W 11 H Chicago 2 7 22 16-7 W L 12 A Cleveland 0 11 27 13-6.5 W W 13 A Pittsburgh 6 5 14 24 6.5 L L 14 H Dallas 11 1 10 7 3.5 W W 15 H Detroit 9 4 17 6-4 W W 16 A Philadelphia 5 9 19 24 1 L L 17 A Washington 8 6 19 10 9 W W 18 A Green Bay 10 6 13 38 5 L L 6
Philadelphia WK DATE HA OPPONENT 10 1 9/10/2017 A Washington 7.55 2 9/17/2017 7 A Kansas City 9.1 3 9/24/2017 7 H NY Giants 8.97 4 10/1/2017 7 A LA Chargers 7.65 5 10/8/2017 7 H Arizona 8.55 6 10/12/2017 4 A Carolina 9.2 10/23/2017 11 H Washington 7.55 8 10/29/2017 6 H San Francisco 4.8 9 11/5/2017 7 H Denver 8.2 10 BYE 11 11/19/2017 14 A Dallas 9.65 12 11/26/2017 7 H Chicago 5.15 13 12/3/2017 7 A Seattle 10.5 14 12/10/2017 7 A LA Rams 5.25 15 12/17/2017 7 A NY Giants 8.97 16 12/25/2017 8 H Oakland 9.8 17 12/31/2017 6 H Dallas 9.65 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Washington 3 0.405 1pm 2 9/17/2017 A Kansas City 4 0.337 1pm 3 9/24/2017 H NY Giants -1 0.517 1pm 4 10/1/2017 A LA Chargers 1.5 0.466 4:05pm 5 10/8/2017 H Arizona -2 0.565 1pm 6 10/12/2017 A Carolina 4 0.337 8:25pm 7 10/23/2017 H Washington -2.5 0.534 8:30pm 8 10/29/2017 H San Francisco -7.5 0.771 1pm 9 11/5/2017 H Denver -1 0.517 1pm 11 11/19/2017 A Dallas 7 0.244 8:30pm 12 11/26/2017 H Chicago -6 0.671 1pm 13 12/3/2017 A Seattle 7 0.244 8:30pm 14 12/10/2017 A LA Rams -1.5 0.503 4:25pm 15 12/17/2017 A NY Giants 3.5 0.398 1pm 16 12/25/2017 H Oakland 1 0.473 8:30pm 17 12/31/2017 H Dallas 0.500 1pm 7.48 Play three games in a row at home with a bye week as well so don t travel for over a month 10/12 to 11/19 6-2 ats at home last year Face the Giants with NY off Monday night game Host Washington off a Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Good Host Denver off a Monday night game against rival Kansas City Travel to Dallas off bye week Play three road games in a row including travelling to Seattle and LA in successive weeks 2-6 ats on the road last year Bad Face KC with Chiefs off a Thursday night game (extra 3 days rest) Travel to Carolina on a Thursday night Host SF off a Monday night game Host Dallas off a Monday night game to end the season 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H Cleveland 0 0 29 10-3.5 W W 2 A Chicago 0 1 29 14 3 W W 3 H Pittsburgh 2 0 34 3 4 W W 5 A Detroit 1 3 23 24-3.5 L L 6 A Washington 3 2 20 27-3 L L 7 H Minnesota 5 0 21 10 3 W W 8 A Dallas 5 1 23 29 5 L L 9 A NY Giants 4 3 23 28 3 L L 10 H Atlanta 6 3 24 15-1.5 W W 11 A Seattle 6 2 15 26 6.5 L L 12 H Green Bay 4 6 13 27-4 L L 13 A Cincinnati 3 7 14 32 1.5 L L 14 H Washington 6 5 22 27 2.5 L L 15 A Baltimore 7 6 26 27 5 L W 16 H NY Giants 10 4 24 19-1 W W 17 H Dallas 13 2 27 13-6.5 W W Ugly Brutal schedule for Philly facing 10 teams projected to win over 8 games including finishing the season with 6 of 8 games against those teams Projected Wins Philadelphia s projected win total is 8.30 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 7.48 games. 7
Washington WK DATE HA OPPONENT 12 1 9/10/2017 H Philadelphia 8.3 2 9/17/2017 7 A LA Rams 5.25 3 9/24/2017 7 H Oakland 9.8 4 10/2/2017 8 A Kansas City 9.1 5 BYE 6 10/15/2017 13 H San Francisco 4.8 10/23/2017 8 A Philadelphia 8.3 8 10/29/2017 6 H Dallas 9.65 9 11/5/2017 7 A Seattle 10.5 10 11/12/2017 7 H Minnesota 8.35 11 11/19/2017 7 A New Orleans 7.9 12 11/23/2017 4 H NY Giants 8.97 13 11/30/2017 7 A Dallas 9.65 14 12/10/2017 10 A LA Chargers 7.65 15 12/17/2017 7 H Arizona 8.55 16 12/24/2017 7 H Denver 8.2 17 12/31/2017 7 A NY Giants 8.97 5-1 ats against above.500 teams last year 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H Pittsburgh 0 0 16 38 2.5 L L 2 H Dallas 0 1 23 27-3.5 L L 3 A New York Giants 2 0 29 27 3.5 W W 4 H Cleveland 0 3 31 20-7.5 W W 5 A Baltimore 3 1 16 10 4 W W 6 H Philadelphia 3 1 27 20 3 W W 7 A Detroit 3 3 17 20-1 L L 8 A Cincinnati 3 4 27 27 3 T W 10 H Minnesota 5 3 26 20-2.5 W W 11 H Green Bay 4 5 42 24-3 W W 12 A Dallas 9 1 26 31 5.5 L W 13 A Arizona 4 6 23 31 2.5 L L 14 A Philadelphia 5 7 27 22-2.5 W W 15 H Carolina 5 8 15 26-7 L L 16 A Chicago 3 11 41 21-3 W W 17 H New York Giants 10 5 10 19-9 L L Good WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H Philadelphia -3 0.594 1pm 2 9/17/2017 A LA Rams -2 0.520 4:25pm 3 9/24/2017 H Oakland 1 0.473 8:30pm 4 10/2/2017 A Kansas City 5 0.353 8:30pm 6 10/15/2017 H San Francisco -8 0.765 1pm 7 10/23/2017 A Philadelphia 2.5 0.466 8:30pm 8 10/29/2017 H Dallas 2.5 0.484 4:25pm 9 11/5/2017 A Seattle 8 0.235 4:05pm 10 11/12/2017 H Minnesota -1.5 0.534 1pm 11 11/19/2017 A New Orleans 2.5 0.466 1pm 12 11/23/2017 H NY Giants -1 0.517 8:30pm 13 11/30/2017 A Dallas 7 0.244 8:25pm 14 12/10/2017 A LA Chargers 1.5 0.466 4:05pm 15 12/17/2017 H Arizona -2 0.565 1pm 16 12/24/2017 H Denver -1 0.517 1pm 17 12/31/2017 A NY Giants 0.500 1pm 7.70 Host SF off a bye week Host the Giants on Thursday night Travel to LA off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Travel to Philadelphia with Eagles off Thursday game Host Dallas off Monday night game Face Vikings off Minnesota bye Host Denver with Broncos off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Denver) Brutal schedule facing 12 teams projected to win more than 8 games, including 9 of last 11 games Bad Ugly Projected Wins Washington s projected win total is 7.55 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 7.70 games. 8