Blue Diamond Growers Quality Management ASFMRA in California Almonds Outlook 2018 Conference

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Transcription:

Blue Diamond Growers Quality Management ASFMRA in California Almonds Outlook 2018 Conference

California Walnut Acreage Thousand Acres Non-Bearing Source : USDA FAS Bearing

California Walnut Production Short Tins (Thousands) Crop Year Source : USDA FAS

California Walnut Price and Value $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Walnut Price and Value $- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $/Ton Billion $

World Walnut Production Metric Tons Source : USDA FAS

World Walnut Production 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 China United States Chile European Union Ukraine Turkey India Other Source : USDA FAS

California Pistachio Acreage 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Bearing Non-Bearing Source : USDA FAS

California Pistachio Production (Million Pounds) 1,000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0-2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source : USDA FAS

California Pistachio Price and Value $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Retiurn/Pound Billion $

World Pistachio Production (Metric Tons) 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 United States Turkey Iran Syria European Union Source : USDA FAS

World Almond Production (Metric Tons) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 United States European Union Australia China Turkey Other Source : USDA FAS

California Almond Regions

2016 Crop Production in MM Lbs Tehama 17,435,407 Butte 54,268,739 Glenn 68,894,554 Sutter 8,276,874 Colusa 104,030,205 Yolo 27,994,264 Yuba 1,088,418 Solano 6,230,008 Others 292,219 Total North 288,510,688 Sacramento Valley

San Joaquin Valley 2016 Crop Production in MM Lbs San Joaquin 104,983,283 Stanislaus 290,994,947 Merced 222,318,431 Others 490,636 Total Central 618,787,297 Madera 242,618,187 Fresno 433,216,138 Kings 40,206,390 Tulare 73,857,751 Kern 433,172,990 Others 226,769 Total South 1,223,298,225 2016 Total Crop = 2,130,596,210

California Almond Bearing Acreage 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000-1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

California Almond Yields and Total Receipts 2,500,000,000 3,000 2,000,000,000 2,500 1,500,000,000 2,000 1,000,000,000 1,500 1,000 Receipts Yield 500,000,000 500-1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* -

ABC 25 Year Average Almond Prices $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $- 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

$- $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Receipts Shipments Carry-Over Price California Almond Production & Shipments

California Almond Production & Shipments 2011-17 2,300.0 2,200.0 2,100.0 2,000.0 1,900.0 1,800.0 1,700.0 1,600.0 Production and Shipments 1,500.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Receipts Shipments

USDA-NASS Acreage by Planting Year 100,000.0 90,000.0 80,000.0 70,000.0 60,000.0 50,000.0 40,000.0 30,000.0 20,000.0 10,000.0-1987 & Earlier 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USDA-NASS Acreage by Planting Year 100,000.0 90,000.0 80,000.0 70,000.0 60,000.0 50,000.0 40,000.0 30,000.0 20,000.0 10,000.0-1987 & Earlier 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

California Crop Potential Crop Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 New Bearing (000's) 76 96 108 95 90 90 Total Pullouts (000's) 50.0 51.8 52.1 53.8 55.3 Bearing Acres (000's) 1,000 1,046 1,102 1,145 1,181 1,216 Yield per Acre 2,250 2,295 2,341 2,388 2,435 2,484 Pounds Increase 77 45 46 47 48 49 Crop MM 2.25 2.40 2.58 2.73 2.88 3.02

California Crop Potential Crop Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 New Bearing (000's) 76 96 108 95 90 90 Total Pullouts (000's) 50.0 51.8 52.1 53.8 55.3 Bearing Acres (000's) 1,000 1,046 1,102 1,145 1,181 1,216 Yield per Acre 2,250 2,295 2,341 2,388 2,435 2,484 Pounds Increase 77 45 46 47 48 49 Crop MM 2.25 2.40 2.58 2.73 2.88 3.02

California Crop Potential Crop Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 New Bearing (000's) 76 96 108 95 90 90 Total Pullouts (000's) 50.0 51.8 52.1 53.8 55.3 Bearing Acres (000's) 1,000 1,046 1,102 1,145 1,181 1,216 Yield per Acre 2,250 2,295 2,341 2,388 2,435 2,484 Pounds Increase 77 45 46 47 48 49 Crop MM 2.25 2.40 2.58 2.73 2.88 3.02

California Crop Potential Crop Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 New Bearing (000's) 76 96 108 95 90 90 Total Pullouts (000's) 50.0 51.8 52.1 53.8 55.3 Bearing Acres (000's) 1,000 1,046 1,102 1,145 1,181 1,216 Yield per Acre 2,250 2,295 2,341 2,388 2,435 2,484 Pounds Increase 77 45 46 47 48 49 Crop MM 2.25 2.40 2.58 2.73 2.88 3.02

Total Almond Market Demand Growing By 12%

Ending Inventory Carry-Out Very Manageable

Establishing the Orchard Approximately $6,000 per acre Add $1,000 if Removing Previous Planting Annual Variable Production Costs $2,800 to $3,200 per acre Three Years to First Crop 8 to 11 Years to Recover Initial Investment 20 to 25 Year Life Economics

Crop Farm Variation From Year Year Price $ Average 1 1992-93 $ 1.30 ($0.64) 2 1993-94 $ 1.94 ($0.00) 3 1994-95 $ 1.34 ($0.60) 4 1995-96 $ 2.48 $0.54 5 1996-97 $ 2.08 $0.14 6 1997-98 $ 1.56 ($0.38) 7 1998-99 $ 1.41 ($0.53) 8 1999-00 $ 0.86 ($1.08) 9 2000-01 $ 0.97 ($0.97) 10 2001-02 $ 0.91 ($1.03) 11 2002-03 $ 1.11 ($0.83) 12 2003-04 $ 1.57 ($0.37) 13 2004-05 $ 2.21 $0.27 14 2005-06 $ 2.81 $0.87 15 2006-07 $ 2.06 $0.12 16 2007-08 $ 1.75 ($0.19) 17 2008-09 $ 1.45 ($0.49) 18 2009-10 $ 1.65 ($0.29) 19 2010-11 $ 1.79 ($0.15) 20 2011-12 $ 1.99 $0.05 21 2012-13 $ 2.58 $0.64 22 2013-14 $ 3.21 $1.27 23 2014-15 $ 4.00 $2.06 24 2015-16 $ 3.13 $1.19 25 2016-17 $ 2.44 $0.50 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $- 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 ABC 25 Year Average Almond Prices 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 Average Prices CAGR 25 Year $ 1.94 2.59% 10 Year $ 2.36 3.63% 5 Year $ 3.01-1.40% 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Nonpareil Price Year Variable Cost $2.00 $2.20 $2.40 $2.60 $2.80 $2.90 $3.00 1 $ 7,000.00 ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) ($7,000.00) 2 $ 1,200.00 ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) ($8,200.00) 3 $ 2,800.00 ($10,264.00) ($10,182.00) ($10,100.00) ($10,018.00) ($9,936.00) ($9,895.00) ($9,854.00) 4 $ 3,000.00 ($11,424.00) ($11,137.00) ($10,850.00) ($10,563.00) ($10,276.00) ($10,132.50) ($9,989.00) 5 $ 3,030.00 ($11,326.00) ($10,690.50) ($10,055.00) ($9,419.50) ($8,784.00) ($8,466.25) ($8,148.50) 6 $ 3,060.30 ($9,970.30) ($8,842.80) ($7,715.30) ($6,587.80) ($5,460.30) ($4,896.55) ($4,332.80) 7 $ 3,090.90 ($8,645.20) ($7,025.70) ($5,406.20) ($3,786.70) ($2,167.20) ($1,357.45) ($547.70) 8 $ 3,121.81 ($7,351.02) ($5,239.52) ($3,128.02) ($1,016.52) $1,094.98 $2,150.73 $3,206.48 9 $ 3,153.03 ($6,088.05) ($3,484.55) ($881.05) $1,722.45 $4,325.95 $5,627.70 $6,929.45 10 $ 3,184.56 ($4,856.61) ($1,761.11) $1,334.39 $4,429.89 $7,525.39 $9,073.14 $10,620.89 11 $ 3,216.41 ($3,657.01) ($69.51) $3,517.99 $7,105.49 $10,692.99 $12,486.74 $14,280.49 12 $ 3,248.57 ($2,489.58) $1,589.92 $5,669.42 $9,748.92 $13,828.42 $15,868.17 $17,907.92 13 $ 3,281.06 ($1,354.64) $3,216.86 $7,788.36 $12,359.86 $16,931.36 $19,217.11 $21,502.86 14 $ 3,313.87 ($252.50) $4,811.00 $9,874.50 $14,938.00 $20,001.50 $22,533.25 $25,065.00 15 $ 3,347.01 $816.49 $6,371.99 $11,927.49 $17,482.99 $23,038.49 $25,816.24 $28,593.99 16 $ 3,380.48 $1,852.02 $7,899.52 $13,947.02 $19,994.52 $26,042.02 $29,065.77 $32,089.52 17 $ 3,414.28 $2,853.74 $9,393.24 $15,932.74 $22,472.24 $29,011.74 $32,281.49 $35,551.24 18 $ 3,448.42 $3,821.31 $10,852.81 $17,884.31 $24,915.81 $31,947.31 $35,463.06 $38,978.81 19 $ 3,482.91 $4,754.41 $12,277.91 $19,801.41 $27,324.91 $34,848.41 $38,610.16 $42,371.91 20 $ 3,517.74 $5,652.67 $13,668.17 $21,683.67 $29,699.17 $37,714.67 $41,722.42 $45,730.17 21 $ 3,552.91 $6,515.76 $15,023.26 $23,530.76 $32,038.26 $40,545.76 $44,799.51 $49,053.26 22 $ 3,588.44 $6,975.31 $15,933.81 $24,892.31 $33,850.81 $42,809.31 $47,288.56 $51,767.81 23 $ 3,624.33 $7,030.99 $16,399.49 $25,767.99 $35,136.49 $44,504.99 $49,189.24 $53,873.49 24 $ 3,660.57 $6,682.42 $16,419.92 $26,157.42 $35,894.92 $45,632.42 $50,501.17 $55,369.92 25 $ 3,697.18 $5,929.24 $15,994.74 $26,060.24 $36,125.74 $46,191.24 $51,223.99 $56,256.74 Annual Net Revenue $237.17 $639.79 $1,042.41 $1,445.03 $1,847.65 $2,048.96 $2,250.27 Return/Lb $1.80 $2.00 $2.20 $2.40 $2.60 $2.70 $2.80

Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Nonpareil 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Industry Linear (Industry)

Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Carmel 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Industry Linear (Industry)

Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Butte/Padre 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Industry Linear (Industry)

Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Monterey 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Industry Linear (Industry)

Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% California 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Industry Linear (Industry)

Variety Groups as Percentage of Crop 3.0% Independence 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Industry

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