Outline Refinement and expansion of the TFDD Preliminary findings on treaty content and distribution International treaties and climate change risk
Geographic Coverage
Documents to Instruments Primary Agreement Instrument Amendment Protocol Share of documents Share of instruments 29% Conflict Resolution 57% 32% Joint Management 66% 6% Groundwater 14%
45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Temporal Evolution 60 50 Number of instruments signed 40 30 20 10 0 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2008 Cumula ve area of coverage Number of instruments 1850 to 1860 1860 to 1870 1870 to 1880 1880 to 1890 1890 to 1900 1900 to 1910 1910 to 1920 1920 to 1930 1930 to 1940 1940 to 1950 1950 to 1960 1960 to 1970 1970 to 1980 1980 to 1990 1840 to 1850 Period 1830 to 1840 1820 to 1830 Cumula ve area covered by signed instrument (thousands of km 2 )
Depth of Content Example: Conflict Resolution
Total S. America N. America Europe Asia Africa 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of transboundary popula on with at least one treaty % of transboundary area with at least one treaty Overall Treaty Distributions Total S. America N. America Europe Asia Africa 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of bilateral basins with at least one treaty % of mul lateral basins with at least one treaty Breakdown by Bilateral/Multilater al Basins
Basin-Scale Management
Treaties and Climate Change What is the global distribution of climate-resilient institutional mechanisms? What basins may merit further study and capacity-building?
Approach Vulnerability + Hazard Potential (Treaties and RBOs) (Variability or variability change) Risk
Several Ways of Rating Hazard 1. High present year-to-year variability (World Bank) 2. Large future variability increase (World Bank) 3. The combination: high present variability or medium present variability coupled with a large increase in the future (Forthcoming in Journal of Peace Research)
Projected Change in Runoff Variability Regime
Potential Risk #1: Present Variability Vulnerability Present Variability High Medium Low High 41 199 153 Medium 9 113 55 Low 15 111 51
Potential Risk #2: Future Change Vulnerability Future Variability Change High Moderate Low/ None High 92 84 210 Medium 33 48 92 Low 34 44 98
Potential Risk #3: Present + Future
Basin Riparian countries identified in filtering Present Hazard level Treaty-RBO scores and disparity Basin Population a Disparity (Low/high) (count) (km 2 ) Asi/Orontes Turkey Medium 2 (0/2) 5,607,300 37,900 Lebanon, Syria Catatumbo Colombia Medium Venezuela Medium 0 (0/0) 1,255,700 30,900 -- Chira Ecuador High Peru High 0 (1/1) 747,400 15,600 -- Area Congo/Zaire Uganda High 4 (0/4) 81,395,000 3,674,800 Additional riparians Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Cameroon, Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Malawi, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia Gash Ethiopia High 2 (0/2) 3,687,500 39,900 Eritria, Sudan Kura-Araks Georgia Medium Turkey Medium 3 (0/3) 13,047,100 193,400 Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran Algeria High Lake Chad Libya High (0/3) 41,249,100 2,380,500 Sudan High 3 Ethiopia High Lotagipi Sudan High (0/0) 328,500 38,700 Kenya Swamp Uganda High 0 Neman Poland Medium 1 (1/2) 4,722,200 90,700 Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia Nestos Greece Medium 0 (0/0) 301,000 10,200 Bulgaria Central African Republic, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Cote d'ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Nigeria Niger Algeria High 4 (0/4) 88,602,400 2,105,200 Oued Bon Algeria High 0 (0/0) 79,300 500 -- Naima Morocco High Moldova Medium Sarata 0 (0/0) 98,300 1,800 -- Ukraine Medium Argentina High (0/0) 200 2,600 Chile Zapaleri Bolivia High 0 Note: Discharge and irrigated area included, but not shown here
Basins of interest in the future
Implications New dimensions of treaty data Vulnerability Afghanistan Indus Basin Disparities in resilience within basins Pakistan India China New distributions of risk