SANTA ANITA (THE GREAT RACE PLACE) Friday, May 26, 2017 FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot fillie waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard californiawinning.com, Graded Selections.as follows Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. All purchases are final, and thank you.
I have recognized scratches for this race up to approximately 4 p.m., PDT, Thursday, May 25, 2017, approximate time of posting RACE 1: Abbey Vale is a fine Irish gent, who comes off a grass route win here nearly two months ago (and, obviously, is well rested), the grizzled veteran gelding knows almost nothing but the turf route, and is very steady speed-wise, look for him to battle. Sky Preacher kills RD and adores the avuncular yet sophisticated Santa Anita crowd, he too comes off a grass win here, at race distance ( RD ), in early March (and is also well rested), he also carries a quintessential Left Coast rider to boot. In the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s) as the favorite is Rye Patch, as he kills RD also, with two wins and two third-place finishes in only five tries, he shows a string of very good works and closes out his races effectively as well. RACE 2: In this super-sprint, only one horse has ever raced, Bookies Luck, so we handicappers are relegated to far less than the usual type and quantity of data with which to evaluate matters. Nonetheless, Fast Cotton looms large, based upon the colts string of better-than-average recent works, including four furlongs at a crisp 45 4 at Los Alamitos about a month ago, look for him to vie. Honeymoonz Over marries top trainer and rider, shows steady works, and ought to be in the fray. Bookies Luck, who, as noted, had actual race experience, is a co-favorite with good reason--- he raced competently in his debut, finishing third at RD here early this month, so he will be in the hunt. RACE 3: Eckersley (is his first name Dennis?) secures major class relief, sports heady recent turf works, and carries a top-notch rider, his recent grass works are excellent and he raced competently his last time out in a graded race, finishing 3 rd on the synthetic at Golden Gate, he carries a top-drawer rider to boot. Diplodicus (once, a very long dinosaur) has captured the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s) as the
M/L favorite, as he moves way down in class, shows excellent recent works and knows almost nothing but route races, mostly of the grass variety. David s Memory closes his grass races well, carries a quintessential Left Coast rider, has won two of five grass races, and although the wins were in sprints, he is almost always in the lead at the stretch, suggesting that the sprint race could well be his unrecognized to date niche. RACE 4: Road Test comes off a win here at RD last month, and she placed in her other three efforts at RD, her works are creditable and she adores the avuncular yet sophisticated crowd as Santa Anita. Pistol Packin Rose knows nothing but route races of late, whereon she performs best, she comes off her best effort yet, placing at RD on the grass, she has hit the board once in three tries at RD, and she carries one of the best Left Coast jockeys who knows her quite well. Gemini Journey has two wins at sprint distance, but she mostly closes her sprints well suggesting that she has enough in the tank to go the mile, she will give the pack a run for your money. RACE 5: Magical More moves down, turned in his best performance at RD on the dirt, just missing a win here by a head last March, look for the gelding to make a bid. My Farmer shows creditable works, raced competently in his two sprints, and is good enough to vie in this field. True Valor is the M/L favorite, in large measure because the colt just missed a win by a neck at RD his last time out, last October back East, coupled with the obvious fact that he is very well rested, he certainly looks like a viable part of this trifecta to me. RACE 6: Chief Hosa sports stellar recent works, including without limitation five furlongs at a crisp 57 4 a couple of months ago at San Luis Rey, he missed a win here at Rd by only a half- length last time out three weeks ago, he is accordingly one of only five contestants to have hit the board at RD, he looks good in this spot. Southern Keys is the only contestant who has a win at RD on the grass, which he accomplished here in mid-march, his works are creditable and I expect him to
make a bid. Rainbow Squall is the M/L favorite, in large measure because he marries a premier trainer and jockey, he also just missed a win by a nose in a turf route here last month, this tremendous jockey would greatly enhance the chance of any horse, as he does here. RACE 7: Old Man Lake loves the mile (and is one of two horses to have won twice at RD) and the clamorous, yet glamorous Santa Anita crowd, the grizzled veteran still shows excellent works, although his last race was rather disappointing, that race was his first off a nine month rest, my thinking is that he returns to his old form, and this excellent jockey surely helps to achieve that end. Chris and Dave moves down noticeably, he kills the mile (he is the only other horse who has won twice at RD) with two wins and a second place finish in only three races, curiously, he won here at RD on May 26, 2016, and I wouldn t put it past him to reprise that performance against this field. The M/L favorite is Tough It Out, probably because he moves down, is trained by one of the best, and has hit the board in nine of his last thirteen, most of which were dirt routes, he will be in the fray. RACE 8: Rafter One sports heady recent works, makes the precipitous and propitious class drop out of MSW, carries a raison d etre jockey, and could well have his picture taken after the race. Blame Joe, the M/L favorite, has the advantage of the same huge class drop as Rafter One, he had a major equipment change, as he is now a first time gelding, he marries top trainer and rider, his best effort was in his one and only grass race, where he came in third in the mile, he was well positioned at sprint distance in that particular race and should make a strong bid here. Westwood s Wizard, if eligible as an AE, knows only excellent jockey Tyler Baze as his rider, he is one of only four horses in this contest to have hit the board on the grass, his works are creditable and he has hit the board in two of three sprints. I grade Secret Touch as my fourth best, in case Westwood s Wizard does not get to race, although his last [dirt, route] race was inauspicious, he raced competently in his two dirt races prior to that, and was well positioned in the stretch of his route race last March, he could surprise here.
Today s deadline for payments is 2 p.m. PDT, 5 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss also check out Tip No. 7 which recommends that you punt when the track is sloppy