Measuring and predicting success Simon Shibli
Presentation Outline 1. Background context 2. The distribution of Olympic success 3. The distribution of Olympic talent 4. Measuring performance 5. Linking INPUT to OUTPUT
1. Background context
Number of NOCs Taking Part 225 200 197 199 201 204 204 175 169 159 150 140 125 112 121 100 83 93 92 80 75 69 67 59 50 25 0 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Number of Athletes Participating 12000 11000 10320 10651 10625 10942 10903 10000 9367 9000 8465 8000 7000 7123 6797 6000 5000 4925 5348 5140 5530 6028 5217 4000 4099 3000 3184 2000 1000 0 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Number of Sports Contested 30 28 28 28 28 28 26 25 26 26 24 23 23 22 20 19 20 21 21 18 17 17 17 17 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Number of Events Contested 325 300 300 301 302 302 275 257 271 250 237 225 221 200 195 198 203 175 163 172 150 136 149 151 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
100% 11 10 10 9 10 10 19 17 17 13 12 11 11 12 12 10 8 90% 80% 19 25 26 29 33 40 43 49 50 66 73 88 97 120 124 127 132 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 106 114 115 114 120 124 133 132 137 147 156 161 163 168 165 165 162 20% 10% 0% 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Men Women Mixed
NOCs Winning ANY Medal 95 90 y = 0.0026x 2-0.4041x + 54.812 R² = 0.9687 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Number of NOCs Participating
Background context Key points The whole world is taking part The supply of success is fixed More nations are winning medals We should expect the price of success to rise.
Sourcing the data: Infostrada Podium Performance
2. The distribution of Olympic success
Number of NOCs 215 210 205 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 165 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 204 204 197 199 201 169 159 140 112 121 107 116 114 115 99 93 92 86 86 83 85 80 80 79 72 74 69 67 67 64 59 61 59 60 61 55 56 52 53 53 54 50 52 51 43 43 48 45 47 44 46 41 37 38 41 36 37 27 30 25 26 31 26 25 23 23 25 25 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Gold Medal Any Medal 1-8 Place Nations Taking Part
90% 80% 76% 72% 78% 73% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 63% 62% 39% 39% 57% 37% 63% 52% 44% 28% 28% 54% 50% 39% 40% 27% 60% 58% 45% 45% 31% 28% 48% 34% 45% 33% 54% 51% 50% 40% 40% 38% 27% 26% 58% 37% 28% 56% 56% 42% 42% 26% 26% 20% 21% 18% 19% 22% 10% 0% 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Nations Winning a Gold Medal % Nations Winning Any Medal % Nations Winning A Top 8 Place %
More nations achieving success Measure 1988 2012 Change % Change Nations winning a gold medal 19% 26% +7 37% Nations winning any medal 33% 42% +9 27% Nations winning a Top 8 place 45% 56% +11 24% Nations winning a Top 16 place 47% 72% +25 53%
100% 90% 93% 89% 84% 80% 70% 72% 69% 71% 72% 74% 72% 71% 64% 60% 52% 54% 55% 55% 56% 56% 55% 50% 44% 47% 40% 38% 37% 38% 38% 37% 39% 38% 30% 27% 27% 28% 29% 27% 20% 10% 0% 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Top 3 Top 5 Top 10 Top 20
Key Points 1. Around 26% win a gold medal 2. Around 42% win any kind of medal 3. The top 20 nations win around 71% of all medals 4. More nations are achieving some measure of success
3. The distribution of Olympic talent
The likelihood of being an Olympian World population in 2012 7,001,000,000 Olympians at London 2012 10,903 World population per Olympian 642,117
660,000 World Population per Olympic Athlete 1988-2012 640,000 642,117 620,000 615,701 604,843 604,800 600,000 583,538 580,000 574,406 560,000 561,628 540,000 520,000 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
900,000 800,000 768,876 700,000 642,117 600,000 500,000 431,729 400,000 300,000 200,000 230,000 201,815 199,394 167,158 140,260 124,093 100,000 96,429 92,521 89,255 78,155 56,024 49,558 41,875 - BRA JPN SIN KOR FRA ESP POR CAN FIN BEL NED SUI AUS DEN EST
1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - BRA JPN SIN FRA ESP BEL POR KOR NED CAN SUI DEN AUS FIN EST WORLD 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
3,500,000 3,184,906 3,000,000 2,818,889 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,488,947 1,000,000 986,667 918,723 793,684 649,123 642,117 592,264 500,000 409,520 71,022 62,541 - NGR GHA KSA ALG KEN GUA TUR WORLD USA RSA SWE HUN
Key Points 1. Olympians are rare 2. The production of Olympians favours larger nations 3. Some nations are more efficient producers than others
4. Measuring performance
EST 32 FIN POR 56 77 SPLISS nations = 9% of population SPLISS nations = 26% of Olympians SUI 103 DEN 113 BEL 119 NED 188 KOR 248 BRA 258 ESP 278 CAN 281 JPN 295 FRA 330 AUS 410 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
EST 2 11 POR 1 13 FIN 2 14 BEL 3 16 DEN 5 17 SUI 4 18 NED 8 18 KOR 12 22 ESP 8 23 AUS 9 23 BRA 8 24 CAN 10 24 JPN 13 24 FRA 14 24 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Number of Sports Nations Won Medals In Number of Sports Nations Contested
Measure Gold Silver Bronze Total Market Share % Total Medals 302 304 356 962 Points Awarded 3 2 1 Total Points 906 608 356 1,870 100% France (7 th ) 11 11 12 34 Points 33 22 12 67 3.6% South Korea (5 th ) 13 8 7 28 Points 39 16 7 62 3.3%
Measure Korea France MS% London 2012 3.3% 3.6% MS% Beijing 2008 3.6% 3.8% Change in MS% -0.3-0.2 Percentage change in MS% -8% -5%
Reference Period Gold Silver Bronze Total Olympic Games 302 304 356 962 4 Year Cycle 1,065 1,068 1,285 3,418
Market Share % 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% SPLISS nations = 9% of population SPLISS nations = 26% of Olympians SPLISS nations = 23% of success 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Australia Japan France South Korea Brazil Spain Netherlands Canada Denmark Switzerland Finland Belgium Portugal All Events Olympic Games Only World Championships Only
5. Linking INPUT to OUTPUT
Change in Total Medals Won 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 All Other NOCs -25-15 -10-5 0 5 10 15 Change in Gold Medals Won
Change in Total Medals Won 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-5 -4-3 -2-1 -2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21-4 -6-8 -10 Change in Gold Medals Won
% Change in OUTPUT 2001-2011/12 100% 50% 0% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% -50% -100% % Change in INPUT 2001-2011/12
Conclusions SPLISS nations over produce Olympians SPLISS nations over achieve success Success is typically achieved in a minority of sports contested Generally variations in performance over time are modest More money in more medals out Standing still would be an achievement
Thank you for listening, any questions? Simon Shibli Sport Industry Research Centre Sheffield Hallam University Collegiate Hall Collegiate Campus Sheffield S10 2BP Tel: +44 114 225 5920 Email: s.shibli@shu.ac.uk