Climate Change at Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve: Preliminary Results Adam Fenech Climate Lab @ University of Toronto August 28, 2010
Special Considerations Data used is from Canada s National Climate Data and Information Archive Data is QA/QC d but not homogenized (not the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Data) Archive sometimes removes very extreme values inadvertently Page 2
Rapid Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change (RAICC) Step 1 Build History of Climate Extremes Observational Data Step 3 Build Future of Climate Extremes Model Output Step 4 Climate Change Environmental Predictions 10 eco-sectors Step 2 Evaluate and Select Climate Model Step 5 Relative Risk Assessment Impacts of Climate Change Page 3
Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve Page 4
Glossary Tmax = maximum temperature Tmin = minimum temperature Tmean = mean temperature DJF = Winter MAM = Spring JJA = Summer SON = Autumn Page 5
Looking Into the Past Page 6
Annual Mean Temperature Changes Annual Mean Temperature FABR 1968 to 2009 9 8 7 6 5 1.13 C degrees Celsius 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Year Page 7
Annual Temperatures Tmean driven by Tmax! Observed Annual Temperature for Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2008 Temperature ( C) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Tmax = 1.66 C Tmean = 1.13 C Tmin = 0.61 C 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 8
Annual Maximum Temperatures by Season Tmax driven by DJF Seasonal Tmax FABR 1968 to 2009 Tmax ( C) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 0.8 C 1.4 C 1.4 C 3.2 C 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 9
Annual Total Precipitation Annual Total Precipitation FABR 1968 to 2008 0.06 mm/day 3.5 mm/day 3 2.5 2 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 10
Total Precipitation by Season FABR 1968 to 2008 5 4 Total Precipitation by Season FABR 1968 to 2008 Overall 0.06 mm/day SON 0.6 mm/day mm/day 3 2 1 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 11
Precipitation Frequency SON, 33 DJF, 36 % days per season 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Precipitation Frequency by Season FABR 1968 to 2009 Overall 3% JJA 9% JJA, 28 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 12 MAM, 32
Precipitation Intensity mm/day 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Precipitation Intensity by Season FABR 1968 to 2009 Overall 0.6 mm/day JJA 1.88 mm/day 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 13
Dry Days 1970 MAM, JJA 2009 SON Consecutive Dry Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 50 40 # days 30 20 10 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 Year 1993 1998 2003 2008 Page 14
Wet Days 1968 SON 2004 JJA 3-day Maximum Precipitation Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 135 110 mm 85 60 35 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 Year 1993 1998 2003 2008 Page 15
Hot Days 4 days/year 1983, 1988, 2005 Xtreme Hot Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 30 # of days >30 C 20 10 0 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 16
Cold Days 6 days/year 1968, 1976, 1989, 1994, 2003 Xtreme Cold Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 25 20 # of days <-20 C 15 10 5 0 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 17
Growing Season 4 days/year Growing Season Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2008 200 190 # of days 180 170 160 150 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Year Page 18
Frost Season 17 days/year Frost Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2009 100 80 # of days 60 40 20 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 Year Page 19
Looking Into the Future Page 20
Emission Scenarios Future climate cannot be predicted because future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions unknown 3 primary GHG indicators Human population Global economy type Energy type Page 21
Emission Scenarios A1 - The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. The A1 family of scenarios is characterized by:rapid economic growth; a global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines; the quick spread of new and efficient technologies; a convergent world income and way of life converge between regions; and extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological emphasis: A1FI - an emphasis on fossil-fuels; A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources; and A1T - emphasis on non-fossil energy sources. A2 - The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by:a world of independently operating, self-reliant nations; continuously increasing population; regionally oriented economic development; and slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income. B1 - The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. The B1 scenarios are characterized by: rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy; population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1; reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies; and an emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. Page 22
Future Climate - Tmean Page 23
Future Climate - Tmean Page 24
Future Climate - Ptotal Page 25
Future Climate - Ptotal Page 26
Growing Season 4 days/year during past 40 years 33 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Growing Season Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 250 225 # of days 200 175 150 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year Observed A2 A1B B1 Page 27
Frost Season 17 days/year over past 40 years 30 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Frost Season Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 100 75 # of days 50 25 0 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year Observed A2 A1B B1 Page 28
Environmental Prediction Vulnerability/Opportunity Thresholds Eco-sector Indicator Formula Main Source Tourism Premium Golf Days Annual sum of days where daily Tmean>18 C and Tmean<28 C, * 80.7% where Pdaily >0 and <2.5mm, *64.7% where Pdaily >2.5mm and <5mm, *0 where Pdaily >10mm, and *0 where previous day s Pdaily >20mm Scott and Jones,2006 Water Quality Waterborne Disease Outbreaks Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 90th percentile Ptotal, Tmin>0 C; and Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 2*standard deviation of Ptotal, Tmin>0 C Curriero et al., 2001 Auld et al., 2001 Forests Southern Pine Beetle Annual sum of days where daily Tmin <-16 C Ungerrer et al., 1999 Built Environment Pavement Damage Due to Frost Depth Annual sum of 0 C daily Tmean Raymond et al., 2003 Biodiversity West Nile Virus Annual sum of days where daily Tmean >30 C Dohm et al., 2001 Page 29
Environmental Prediction Vulnerability/Opportunity Thresholds Eco-sector Indicator Formula Main Source Human Health Salmonella Poisoning Annual sum total of % where for every C of daily Tmean > - 10 C, *1.2% Fleury et al., 2006 Fisheries Macroinvertebrate Change Average 2-decade Tmean minus previous average 2-decade Tmean divided by 1.5 C * six percent Burgmer et al., 2007 Energy Cooling/Heati ng Degree Days Annual sum of days where T mean >18 C (cooling); Annual sum of days where T mean <18 C (heating) Diaz and Quayle, 1980 Transportation Road Accidents Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 0 mm, *2.4% Keay and Simmonds, 2007 Agriculture Corn Heat Units (Ymax + Ymin) 2 where: Ymax = (3.33 x (Tmax-10.0))-(0.084 x (Tmax-10.0)2) (If values are negative, set to 0); Tmax = Daily maximum air temperature ( C); Ymin = (1.8 x (Tmin-4.4)) (If values are negative, set to 0); and Tmin = Daily minimum temperature ( C) Brown and Bootsma, 1997 Page 30
Premium Golf Days 1 day/year in past 40 years projected 22 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Premium Golf Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 120 100 # of days 80 60 40 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year Observed A2 Page A1B 31 B1
Pine Beetle 14 days/yr in past 40 years projected 17 days/yr by 2100 Past and Future Potential Pine Beetle Killing Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 50 40 # of days 30 20 10 0 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year Observed Page A2 32 A1B B1
Pavement Damage 18% over 40 years projected 49% by 2100 Past and Future Potential Pavement Damage Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 Frost Index (000s) 0 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098-1 -2-3 -4-5 Year Observed A2 A1B B1 Page 33
Risk of West Nile Virus 5 days/year in past 40 years projected 32 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Potential Risk of West Nile Virus Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 90 75 60 # of days 45 30 15 0 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078 2088 2098 Year Observed A2 A1B B2 Page 34
Conclusions Past Climate Annual mean temperature 1 C over past 40 years Tmean increase driven by Tmax ( 1.66 C) - different from global and regional temperature increases Tmax increase driven by Winter temperatures ( 3.2 C) Annual mean precipitation has not changed much over past 40 years - largest change in Autumn ( 0.6mm/day) Raining more often (frequency) 4% ( 9% JJA) Raining less hard (especially in Summer 1.88 mm/day) Page 35
Conclusions Past Climate 2 >40 consecutive dry days in 1970 (MAM, JJA) and 2009 (SON) >90 3-day maximum precipitation in 1968 (SON) and 2004 (JJA) Xtreme Hot Days 4 days/year >20 days in 1983, 1988, 2005 Xtreme Cold Days 6 days/year >20 days in 1968, 1976, 1989, 1994, 2003 Growing Season 4 days/year over past 40 years Frost Season 17 days/year over past 40 years Page 36
Conclusions Future Climate Annual Mean Temperature 2.8-3.0 C by 2050s Annual Total Precipitation 6% by 2050s Growing Season 33days/year by 2100 Frost Season 30 days/year by 2100 Page 37
Environmental Predictors Premium Golf Days Potential Pine Beetle Killing Days 1 day/year in past 40 years projected 22 days/year by 2100 14 days/yr in past 40 years projected 17 days/yr by 2100 Pavement Damage Risk of West Nile Virus 18% over 40 years projected 49% by 2100 5 days/year in past 40 years projected 32 days/year by 2100 Page 38
Next Steps? Fire weather index (PCA) Crop study Snow study Opossum Page 39