Update of the COST726 Total Ozone Data Base up to December 31, 2008 Janusz W. Krzyścin Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences COST 726 Final Seminar; 13-14.05.2009, Warsaw, Poland
TOTAL OZONE MEASUREMENTS GROUND-BASED SPECTROPHOTOMETERS DOBSON (AROSA - 1926), BREWER ( GRECE-1982), FILTER INSTRUMENT (M83/M124, RUSSIA ~ 1970) (source: Fioletov et al. (2008),JGR)
TOTAL OZONE MEASUREMENTS SATELLITE- BORNE SPECTROPHOTOMETERS TOMS : (since October 1978) NIMBUS 7-1978-1993 METEOR 3 1991-1994 Earth Probe 1996-2005 SBUV : (operational monitoring since 1985) NOAA-9, 11, 14, and 16 TOVS: (operational monitoring 1995-2005) NOAA satellite Nimbus 7 Platform GOME: (1995 - present) ERS-2 platform SCIAMACHY: (2002 - present) ENVISAT platform OMI: (2004 present) -AURA platform Signs of the instrument degradation since 2008
COMPARISON: GROUND-BASED MINUS SATELLITE TOTAL OZONE (source: Fioletov et al. (2008), JGR)
SELECTED TOTAL OZONE DATA BASES NIWA - GLOBAL TOTAL OZONE DATA 1978-2004: National Institute of Water and Atmosphere Research (NIWA), Lauder, New Zealand, Assimilated Total Ozone Data Base 1979-2004 (Bodeker et al., 2005) Version 8 Nimbus 7 and Earth Probe TOMS GOME version 3.1 KNMI TOGOMI Version 8 SBUV from NIMBUS 7, NOAA9, NOAA 11, and NOAA 16 ERA-40 (1958-2002)- GLOBAL DATA TOOL: 3-D GCM SIMULATIONS COST-726 : (1950-2004) EUROPE DATA TOOL: STATISTCAL MODEL TRAINED ON NIWA DATA 1979-2004 IN BSCW COST726 SERVER : COST726 MODEL DATA 1950-2004: NIWA DATA 1979-2004
COST-726 DATA BASE [31ºN -80ºN; 25ºW-35ºE] The area with reconstructed daily total ozone values for the period 1950-2004 and ground-based stations used for the validation of the model. Grid resolution: Δφ=1, Δλ=1 (BSCW)
Daily Total Ozone over DeBilt: 1979-2004 (COST 726 SATELITTE )/ SATELITTE *100% OCTOBER - MARCH APRIL - SEPTEMBER 20 (%) (%) 20 20 (%) (%) 20 15 15 15 15 RELATIVE DEVIATIONS 10 5 0-5 -10 10 5 0-5 -10 RELATIVE DEVIATIONS 10 5 0-5 -10 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -15-15 Nimbus 7 Earth Probe Nimbus 7 Earth Probe -15-20 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008-20 -20 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008-20 MEAN RELATIVE DEV.= -0.54% ± 2.02% MEAN RELATIVE DEV.= -0.38% ± 1.66%
BASIC CHARACTERISTICS COST726 O3 DATA BASE * LONG-TERM BIAS BETWEEN COST726 AND GROUND-BASED O3 WITHIN ±2% * RELATIVE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DAILY O3 IN PRE-SATELLITE ERA t <1979 (COST MODEL VALIDATION PERIOD) BIAS ±1% (MAY-SEPTEMBER) ±2% (OCTOBER-APRIL) STANDARD DEVIATION 5% (MAY-SEPTEMBER) 8% (OCTOBER-APRIL) * BSCW (COST726 SERVER) DATA CONTAINS: RECONSTRUCTED (1950-2004) COST726 O3 NIWA O3 (1979-2004) OMI TOTAL OZONE DATA (2005-2008) will be ATTACHED SOON PROGRAM TO EXTRACT DAILY O3 (1950-2008): USER SELECTS: φ AND λ OUTPUT: COST726 O3 BEFORE 1979 AND NIWA O3 AFTERWARDS
AROSA 1932-2008 450 425 R 2 = 0.94 Measured= 11.5 DU + 0.96 x COST726 400 20 15 [%] Ground_Based [%] COST726 ( Reconstructed+NIWA)+OMI 20 15 MEASURED 375 350 325 300 10 10 275 Relative Deviations 5 0-5 5 0-5 250 450 425 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 COST726 R 2 = 0.996 Measured= -0.02 + 0.997 x OMI -10-10 400-15 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-15 MEASURED 375 350 325 300 275 250 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 OMI
HRADEC KRALOVE 1961-2008 450 425 R 2 = 0.95 Measured= 0.77 DU + 1.006 x COST726 400 MEASURED 375 350 325 20 15 [%] Ground_Based [%] COST726 (Reconstructed+NIWA) + OMI 20 15 300 275 Relative Deviations 10 5 0-5 10 5 0-5 250 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 COST726 450 425 R 2 = 0.996 Measured= -6.53 + 1.0234 x OMI -10-10 400-15 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-15 MEASURED 375 350 325 300 275 250 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 OMI
Daily O3 Ratio: GROUND/ NIWA (1979-2004) + GROUND/OMI (2005-2008) AROSA (46 46'N, 9 40E) HRADEC KRALOVE (50 11'N, 15 50'E) Mean Ratio = 1.007 ± 0.033 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 Ground O3 / Satellite O3 Ground O3 / Satellite O3 Mean Ratio = 0.985 ± 0.024 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 BELSK (51 50'N, 20 47Ε) 1985 2000 2005 2010 Mean Ratio= 1.005 ± 0.025 1.04 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.02 Ground O3 / Satellite O3 Ground O3 / Satellite O3 1995 HOHENPEISSENBERG (47 48'N, 11 01'E) Mean Ratio = 1.005 ± 0.037 1.01 1.00 0.99 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 1975 1990 0.96 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GROUND/ NIWA (1979-2004) OR GROUND/OMI (2005-2008) 1.04 POTSDAM (52 24', 13 08') Mean Ratio =1.008 ± 0.039 1.04 NORRKOEPING (58 61', 16 18') Mean Ratio =1.016 ± 0.042 1.03 1.03 Ground O 3 / Satellite O 3 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 Ground O 3 / Satellite O 3 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.96 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Ground O 3 / Satellite O 3 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 UCCLE (50 83'N, 4 38'E) Mean Ratio =0.994 ± 0.036 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 LOCAL DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG-TERM PATTERN OF THE RATIO SHOW UNCERTAINTY LEVEL OF GROUND-BASED NETWORK < ± 2% in 1979-2008 TREND IN THE RATIO < ±0.7%/10YR OZONE CHANGE OF ~1% IN THE PERIOD 1995-2008 MAY BE DUE TO INSTRUMENT CHANGES
COST726 + OMI DATA AVERAGED OVER THE EUROPEAN MIDLATITUDES: 1963-2008 SELECTED REGION -25-15 -5 5 15 25 35 80 80 420 (D) ROK (Styczeñ -... - Grudzieñ ) (D) 420 70 70 400 YEARLY MEANS 400 380 380 60 60 360 360 50 50 340 340 320 320 40 40 300 Rok 300 280 1963 19661969 1972 19751978 198119841987 19901993 199619992002 20052008 280-25 -15-5 5 15 25 35 OZONE DECLINE SINCE 2002!
CENTRAL EUROPE COST726 + OMI DATA: 1963-2008 SELECTED REGION -25-15 -5 5 15 25 35 80 80 420 (D) ZIMA (Grudzieñ - Styczeñ - Luty ) (D) 420 70 70 400 380 YEARLY MEANS 400 380 60 60 360 360 340 340 50 50 320 320 40 40 300 Rok 300 280 1963 19661969 1972 19751978 198119841987 19901993 199619992002 20052008 280-25 -15-5 5 15 25 35 OZONE DECLINE SINCE 2002!
SOURCES OF RECENT OZONE DECLINE? Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine? SOLAR ACTIVITY? 3500 [ ppt ] 250 SUNSPOTS NUMBER 3000 200 2500 EESC 150 2000 100 1500 50 1000 Rok 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) Data Base
Solar Cycle 24 - early 2008 10.05.2009 The longest period without sunspots over last 100 yr.! BEGINING OF A NEW LITTLE ICE AGE? Source: from the Solar and Heliosphere Observatory spacecraft (SOHO) Little Ice Age Source: Wikipedia, English Version
Thomas Harriot (1560-1621) DAILY MEANS English astronomer December 1610 first documented observation of sunspots through telescope = start of solar activity data base Let s hope that length of ozone/uv data will be similar Source: Wikipedia, English Version
CONCLUSIONS OMI DATA (2005-2008) PROPER FOR EXTENSION OF COST726 DATA BASE DIFFERENCES GROUND/SATELLITE OZONE WITHIN ± 2% BAND IN THE PERIOD 1979-2008 (30 YR) FOR THE EUROPEAN STATIONS TREND UP T0 ± 0.7% /10YR. DUE TO CALIBRATION/INSTRUMENTAL CHANGES OF GROUND-BASED NETWORK IN MIDLAT. EUROPE RECENT (SINCE 2002) TOTAL OZONE DECLINE OVER MIDLAT. EUROPE PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE LOW SOLAR ACTIVITY PROLONGED BLANK PHASE OF THE SUN WILL POSE A CHALLENGE FOR OUR UNDERSTANDING OF SUN/EARTH ATMOSPHERE RELATIONSHIP SOMETHING UNEXPECTED IN UV/OZONE SCIENCE MAY HAPPEN IF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY STAYS LOW MUCH LONGER