Multnomah County LPSCC Oregon Outlook for Oregon s Prison Population (Preliminary October 2013: Not for Redistribution) September 10, 2013 Mark McMullen State Economist, Director Office of Economic Analysis
The Role of the Office of Economic Analysis Executive Order 95-06 and ORS 184.351 direct the Department of Administrative Services and the Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee (made up of public safety stakeholders & experts) to produce a prison forecast twice a year Given current laws and practices of public safety officials, OEA creates a preliminary forecast for the prison, parole, PPS and local control populations based largely on the overall demographic outlook and trends in the existing prison population Changes to the public safety environment such as new laws or changes in practices and crime rates are analyzed by the Advisory Committee with technical support from the CJC. Any assumed impacts are folded into the population forecast. As these changes begin to appear in the data over time, OEA updates the initial impact estimates as necessary In addition to our traditional forecast, OEA s analytics must improve in order to help implement potential changes to the system. In particular, we need to delineate the data needs of local public safety officials who will be called upon to implement any new processes going forward 2
Oregon Historical Prison Population Forecast Overview
Two Different Eras of Population Growth 16,000 14,000 Oregon Prison Population* 2004-2012 Annualized Growth: 1.37% 12,000 Local Control Law Effects 10,000 8,000 1998-2004 Annualized Growth: 7.85% 6,000 4,000 *Head count of prisoners on the first day of each month. Pre-2000 data adjusts for local control law effect
Forecast Evolution 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 Oregon Prison Population and Forecasts 2000-2014 9,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Prison Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13
Forecast Accuracy (Percentage difference from forecast) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% One year forecast April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Five year forecast April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct April 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Oregon Building the Preliminary Outlook
Prison Intakes Drive the Long- Run Population Outlook 510 Oregon Monthly Prison Admissions 490 470 450 430 410 390 370 Actual intakes 7-month smoothed 350 8
1/1/2009 7/1/2009 1/1/2010 7/1/2010 1/1/2011 7/1/2011 1/1/2012 7/1/2012 1/1/2013 7/1/2013 1/1/2014 7/1/2014 1/1/2015 7/1/2015 1/1/2016 7/1/2016 1/1/2017 7/1/2017 1/1/2018 7/1/2018 1/1/2019 7/1/2019 1/1/2020 7/1/2020 1/1/2021 7/1/2021 1/1/2022 7/1/2022 1/1/2023 7/1/2023 M57 Sentencing Reforms Are Playing Out 150 140 Incoming Property Offenders Current Forecast Previous Forecast 130 120 110 100 90 80 9
1/1/2008 8/1/2008 3/1/2009 10/1/2009 5/1/2010 12/1/2010 7/1/2011 2/1/2012 9/1/2012 4/1/2013 11/1/2013 6/1/2014 1/1/2015 8/1/2015 3/1/2016 10/1/2016 5/1/2017 12/1/2017 7/1/2018 2/1/2019 9/1/2019 4/1/2020 11/1/2020 6/1/2021 1/1/2022 8/1/2022 3/1/2023 10/1/2023 Rapid Growth in Female Intakes Has Slowed In 2013 Incoming Female Offenders 80 75 Admits Previous 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 10
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 M57 Reforms Are Also Evident in the Timing of Releases (Share of current population remaining in prison) Release Index for Incoming Property Offenders 120 Latest Year 2011 100 80 60 40 20 0 Months 11
Oregon Incorporating New Policy and Other Environmental Changes
Estimated Prison Population Impacts of HB3194 350 HB 3194 Bed Impacts!0 - Year End of 2013-15 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Trans Leave M57 Drug DWS Marijuana - Probation ID Theft Robbery 3 13
2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2023 Estimated Prison Population Impacts of HB3194 1000 Estimated impacts for HB 3194 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Transitional Leave DWS, excluding homicide or serious physical injury Reducing ID Theft from 24 to 18 Presumptive Prison Drug M57 Presumptive Probation Reducing Robb 3 from 24 to 18 Presumptive Prison 14
Reforms Delay the Need for New Facilities by 5 yrs 17,000 16,500 16,000 Final Foreast Total Baseline Inmates SA* Previous SA forecast Historic Population Oregon Inmate Forecast 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 *Baseline forecast assumes no new law changes 15
Oregon Preliminary Local Population Forecasts
Local Population Forecasts: Probation Remains Stable 21,000 Probation Population 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 Population History April 2013 October 2013 15,000 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 20 Jan 22 17
Local Population Forecasts: Sunset of 60-Day Cap on Technical Violations 1,600 Local Control 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Population History April 2013 October 2013 0 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 20 Jan 22 18
Local Population Forecasts: Inactive Status Will Not Sunset 17,000 Parole/Post Prison Supervision 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 Population History April 2013 October 2013 10,000 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 20 Jan 22 19
For More Information Standard Contact: 155 Cottage Street NE Salem, OR 97301 (503) 378-3405 oea.info@state.or.us www.oregon.gov/das/oea Social Media: oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com @OR_EconAnalysis 20