Federal Regulatory Update 2019 WTBA/WisDOT Contractor/Engineer Conference by Nick Goldstein ARTBA Vice President of Regulatory & Legal Issues January 17, 2019
How the Public Feels
Regulations and Transportation
2016 in Regulations 97,110 pages in the Federal Register A new record! 3,853 Final Rules (400 more than last 2015) 2,391 Proposed Rules 24,557 Notices
Change in Approach
2017 in Regulations 61,308 pages in the Federal Register 36% drop Lowest page total since 1993 3,281 Final Rules (Almost 600 less than 2016)
Notable Presidential Actions So Far Regulatory Freeze Memo EOs & Memos on Reducing Regulatory Burdens in Carious Sectors 2 for 1 EO Regulatory Task Force EO Withdrawal of WOTUS One Federal Decision
How Do You Get Rid of Regulations? EOs & Guidance stroke of the pen, law of the land Proposed Regulations withdraw, depending on timing Final Rules withdraw with notice & comment Congressional Review Act
Regulatory Issues Project delivery (CEQ comments) Environmental regulations (CAA, CWA, ESA, NEPA) Contracting regulations (DBE, PLA, Hours of Service) Other issues (Patented & Proprietary Products) Lawsuits
Regulatory Wins in 2018 GHG Emissions/MAP-21 Performance Standards NAAQS reform One Federal Decision Overtime & Recordkeeping Regulations HTF revenues in CAFE discussion
WOTUS Why it Matters
WOTUS 2015 Rule adds 134,000 miles
WOTUS Where are We Now 2015 rule still in effect in 20+ states ARTBA, allies litigation in court Withdrawal Notice Proposed Replacement Rule Proposed Exempts most roadside ditches Presumption is out rather than in More litigation likely Final Rule (needs to be issued before May of 2020)
Federal funds, on average, provide 51% of annual state DOT capital outlays for highway & bridge projects 52% 34% Over 69% of state highway & bridge capital outlays 91%* 61%* 50 to 69% of state highway & bridge capital outlays 65% 29 to 49% of state highway & bridge capital outlays 49% * NH 52%* VT 80% 68%* 72% 70% 51% 42% 49% MA 41% 63%* 58% 61%* 43% 86%* 74%* 42% 49% 57%* 56% 71% 60%* 39% 44% 58%* 63% 60%* 42%* 71% 47%* 68% 78% CT 67% DE 48%* MD 41%* RI 97%* NJ 28%* DC 54%* 65%* 71%* 71%* 81%* 34% 51% 36% HI 80% Source: ARTBA analysis of FHWA Highway Statistics data, total ten year average 2005-2014 from tables SF-1 and SF-2. The percent is the ratio of federal aid reimbursements to the state and total state capital outlays and is indicative of the importance of the federal aid program to state capital spending for highways and bridges. Does not include local capital spending. Federal highway reimbursements are primarily used for capital outlays, including construction, right of way and engineering, but are also used for debt service for GARVEE bonds. * States that have issued GARVEE bonds before 2014. 2018 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.
Dems Win the House 234-200 1 Undecided Popular Vote likely to come in at +8% What will they do?
GOP Holds the Senate 53-47 Map was very favorable for Republicans Flips in 2020 and 2022 What will they do?
2020 Election It basically started the day after the election Will half of Dems in the Senate run for President or just one third of them? Senate Map Flips What can get done?
Percent of Ballot Measures Approved 2009-2018 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 80% 65% 68% 77% 85% 79% 69% 74% 82% 81% 76% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average #ARTBATIAC
Voters Approve $30B+ in Transportation Funding Nov. 6 2018 CA $1.9B WA $955K OR $10M AK NV ID UT $87M AZ $529M MT WY CO $128M NM $13M ND $17M SD NE TX $1.2B KS $12M OK MN IA MO $50M WI $110M AR LA $75M IL $3M MS MI $101M IN TN KY AL $107 M OH $17M WV PA $42M VA $227M NC $226M SC $120M GA $183M FL $24.9B NY ME $274M VT CT $90M RI $13M DE NH MA NJ MD $217M DC HI Source: ARTBA TIAC TM Research, Updated November 7, 2018. #ARTBATIAC
Nov. 6, 2018 Type of Ballot Measure, by Number and Percent Approved Property Tax 184 230 80% approved Sales/Income Tax 34 46 74% approved Bond 44 49 90% approved Gasoline Tax 1 3 33% approved Other 8 17 47% approved 0 50 100 150 200 250 #ARTBATIAC
FY 2018 & 2019 Appropriations Over $13 billion in supplemental investments $5.2 to $6.2 billion two-year boost for highways $1.6 billion additional transit funding End six-years of stagnant airport investment Largest increase since stimulus package BUT..
Billions of dollars Highway Trust Fund Revenue Crisis Will Return $70 $52.0 $53.0 $54.0 $55.0 $56.0 $57.0 $58.0 $58.0 $60.0 $61.0 $62.0 $60 $50 $41.0 $41.0 $41.0 $42.0 $42.0 $41.0 $41.0 $41.0 $41.0 $41.0 $40.0 $40 $30 $22.0 $22.0 $24.0 $19.0 $19.0 $20 $10 $0 $3.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Total HTF outlays Proj. HTF revenues Shortfall after FAST Act transfers spent Source: Congressional Budget Office Highway Trust Fund baseline, April 2018 Total may not add up due to rounding.
Real value of public highway, street and related construction $80 $75 $70 $72.3 $70.8 $65 In billions 2018$ $60 $55 $50 $54.3 $63.4 $45 $40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (e) 2019 (f) 2020 (f) 2021 (f) 2022 (f) 2023 (f) Range of Forecast Actual/Forecast Source: ARTBA forecast model. Measuring U.S. Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place for highways, streets and pavements.
Real value of public bridge and tunnel construction $40 $35 $34.8 $30 $25 $31.2 In billions 2018$ $20 $15 $10 $19.3 $5 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (e) 2019 (f) 2020 (f) 2021 (f) 2022 (f) 2023 (f) Range of Forecast Actual/Forecast Source: ARTBA forecast model. Measuring U.S. Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place for highways, streets and pavements.
Real Value of State & Local Government Highway & Bridge Contract Awards $60 $52.8 $51.4 $49.9 $57.0 $50 $46.2 $46.2 $46.5 Billions of 2018$ $40 $30 $20 $41.3 $16.9 $15.5 $22.6 $18.0 $20.6 $17.1 $20.3 $21.5 $10 $0 Nov 10- Oct 11 Nov 11- Oct 12 Nov 12- Oct 13 Nov 13- Oct 14 Nov 14- Oct 15 Nov 15- Oct 16 Nov 16- Oct 17 Nov 17- Oct 18 Nov 10- Oct 11 Nov 11- Oct 12 Nov 12- Oct 13 Nov 13- Oct 14 Nov 14- Oct 15 Nov 15- Oct 16 Nov 16- Oct 17 Nov 17- Oct 18 Highways Bridges Source: ARTBA analysis of data from Dodge Data Analytics, adjusted with ARTBA Price Index, through October.
12-Month Rolling Totals Wisconsin State & Local Contract Awards $1,600 $1,506.3 $1,400 $1,200 $1,244.6 $1,124.8 $1,277.3 Millions of 2018$ $1,000 $800 $600 $883.2 $916.5 $508.9 $524.0 $519.2 $400 $200 $411.6 $372.9 $273.3 $0 Dec 12 to Nov 13 Dec 13 to Nov 14 Dec 14 to Nov 15 Dec 15 to Nov 16 Dec 16 to Nov 17 Dec 17 to Nov 18 Dec 12 to Nov 13 Dec 13 to Nov 14 Dec 14 to Nov 15 Dec 15 to Nov 16 Dec 16 to Nov 17 Dec 17 to Nov 18 Highways Bridges Source: ARTBA analysis of McGraw Hill Data, adjusted with the ARTBA Price Index for project costs. 2019 ARTBA. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.
Nick Goldstein Vice President of Regulatory Affairs American Road & Transportation Builders Association ngoldstein@artba.org 202-289-4434 ext. 207