californiawinning.com Friday, July 21, 2017 Del Mar Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot fillie waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard californiawinning.com, Graded Selections.as follows Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. I have recognized scratches for this race up to approximately 8:15 a.m., EDT, -
Friday, July 21, 2017, approximate time of posting Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS (RACES 7 and 8): RACE 7: Wow, folks, this is that rare grass race comprised of mostly turf horses, a real pleasure to grade as such (Note: be careful there are gaps in the numbers on the DRF due to early scratches ) Mrs. McDougal is the inevitable, necessary M/L favorite, she secures class relief, joins excellent trainer and top-notch rider, the mare closes her races effectively, kills RD with two wins in only three tries, she knows nothing but the turf route and has hit the board nine times in eleven races, she could dominate. Madame Stripes secures like class relief, also closes here races quite well, she knows only the turf route and can fly around the track when she is of a mind to, her HOF rider knows her very well and usually captains her to a second place finish, which is the identical fate I foresee here. Anita Partner is a fine Irish lady, who also moves down, and closes out her grass races efficiently, she has
already won three of five turf races this year, one a dirt route, so she has proven that she can go the distance. RACE 8: The M/L favorite, AE Blackhawk Beauty, is a colt who sports heady recent works, namely, two bullets at five furlongs at Santa Anita, he sure looks good here though raceless. Talk about heady works, Unobtainable is top-drawer in that category, look for him to make a bid. Time for Cioppino (a hearty seafood stew for those non- West-coasters like me) is always in the hunt when the track is dry, he has hit the board twice in three dirt sprints (he did not like the sloppy race), his rider is more than competent and he will be a part of the trifecta. If Blackhawk Beauty doesn t make the cut, then my third best is Suit of Lights, who joins top trainer and rider and sports creditable works. If you email the code words Mr. Ed to me today, I will transmit the rest of today s selections to you free of charge. FOR TODAY S FULL RACE CARD GO TO californiawinning.com AND CLICK ON TODAY S FULL RACE CARD TO MAKE A PAYMENT. As soon as I receive notice of your payment from PayPal I will forward the full race card selections to you, promptly, I assure you. Today s deadline for payments is 2 p.m. PDT, 5 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really
like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day? Some thoughts on wagering My primary goal each racing day is to find all of the winners, and my second, related goal is lofty, rewarding and elusive: I want all of us to hit the Pick 5. If that happens, generally speaking, all of our wallets should be very happy, at least for the remainder of the racing day. For the past week or so, I have had four of the five, consistently. Consistently maddening: I apologize. I admit the bet is tough to win, since even if each race has only six entries there are 6 5, or 45,656 possible outcomes, but the bet can be effected inexpensively and the win is attainable (unlike the Pick 6, where the odds mirror the Mega Millions and the Powerball), and the rewards are usually great. You see, unlike the Pick 6 (see my Handicapping Tip apropos the Pick 6) which is expensive to bet and virtually unattainable, the Pick 5 (and the subset Pick 4 s as well) are value bets. A.50 Pick 5 can cover 2-3 horses in the five races and still be inexpensive, and the returns are often disproportionately high to the amount of the bet. Another value bet is the $1 Trifecta box. Witness the 6 th race on Sunday, where I boxed my three picks for a total of $6, and hit the T perfectly, to the tune of $210. When your bet is that small, you don t really mind if you don t hit it. And if you do hit it, KABOOM! Now THAT is what I call a value bet.