Demographic Change in North Carolina 5 Trends to Watch North Carolina Aggregates Association June 29, 2017 Rebecca Tippett, PhD Director, Carolina Demography
July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year
July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035 14 12 10 Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year
July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035 14 12 10 8 Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in 2015 6 4 2 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year
July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035 14 12 10 8 Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in 2015 6 4 2 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year
July 1 Population (Millions) North Carolina s Total Population (July 1), 1990-2035 14 12 10 8 Officially 9th most populous state as of 2014 >10M in 2015 12.1M in 2035 6 4 2 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM Year
66% of NC residents lived in an urban area in 2010 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Population growth will be uneven across North Carolina Projected population growth, 2010-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
Fastest growing counties concentrated in major metro areas Projected population growth, 2010-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
Many non-metro counties projected to lose population Projected population growth, 2010-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
Almost all future NC growth projected to occur in urban areas Projected share of 2010-2035 state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Triangle 34% Charlotte 34% Triad 10% Wilmington 7% Asheville 5% All Other Metros 10% No Metro Area 1% Data Source: NC OSBM
Two-thirds of NC growth projected to occur Triangle or Charlotte Projected share of 2010-2035 state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas Triangle 34% Charlotte 34% Triad 10% Wilmington 7% Asheville 5% All Other Metros 10% No Metro Area 1% Data Source: NC OSBM
Observed growth more uneven than projected Population growth, 2010-2015 Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Observed growth suggests Triangle may outpace projections Share of state projected vs. observed growth for select North Carolina metro areas Triangle Charlotte 34% 34% 34% 40% Triad 10% 10% Wilmington 7% 8% Asheville 5% 4% All Other Metros 5% 10% Projected (2010-35) No Metro Area -2% 1% Observed (2010-15) Data Source: NC OSBM, U.S. Census Bureau
Concentration of jobs in urban centers drives population shifts Share of state employment in Mecklenburg, Wake, and Durham, Q2 2005 vs. Q2 2015 15.6% 2005 (Q2) 2015 (Q2) 13.7% 12.6% 10.7% 4.4% 4.7% Data Source: QCEW, BLS Mecklenburg Wake Durham
More than 40% of NC workers work in these 5 counties Net commuting patterns, 2009-2013 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Mecklenburg Wake Guilford Durham Forsyth Residents who Work Elsewhere Resident Workers Non-Resident Workers Data Source: 2009-2013 5-Year American Community Survey
Components of Population Change, NC, 1981-2015 Number of People 180,000 160,000 140,000 Natural Increase Net Migration 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: NC Population Estimates, OSBM 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Year
Components of Population Change, NC, 1981-2015 Number of People 180,000 160,000 140,000 Natural Increase Net Migration 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: NC Population Estimates, OSBM 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Year
Components of Population Change, NC, 1981-2015 Number of People 180,000 160,000 140,000 Natural Increase Net Migration 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: NC Population Estimates, OSBM 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Year
Components of Population Change, NC, 1981-2015 Number of People 180,000 160,000 2.4 million net migrants since 1990 140,000 Natural Increase Net Migration 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source: NC Population Estimates, OSBM 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Year
Nearly half of state s 1.9M new residents by 2035 will be 65+ Projected NC population growth by age, 2017-2035 910,000 459,000 218,000 317,000 Under 18 18 to 34 35 to 64 65+ Data Source: NC OSBM
Population Proportion 65+ By 2035, more than 1 in 5 NC residents will be 65 or older Projected population share 65+, NC vs. US, 2010-2035 25% US NC 20% 21.4% 20.7% 15% 10% 13% 5% 0% Data Source: NC OSBM, U.S. Census Bureau 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
41 counties projected to have fewer children by 2035 Counties with projected declines in child population (0-17), 2017-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
47 counties projected to have fewer young adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in young adult population (18-34), 2017-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
58 counties projected to have fewer working age adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in prime working age adult population (35-64), 2017-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
Only one county projected to have fewer older adults by 2035 Counties with projected declines in older adult population (65+), 2017-2035 Data Source: NC OSBM
Millennial adults surpassed Boomers as largest adult generation Generational composition of North Carolina's 18+ population, 2010-2035 Proportion of 18+ Population 45% 40% 35% Boomers (1946-1964) 31% Millennial in 2017 Millennial (1982-2004) 30% 25% Gen X (1965-1981) 20% 15% Silent (1928-1945) 10% Gen Z (2005- ) 5% Greatest ( -1927) Data Source: NC OSBM 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Housing Unit Demand 2015-2035 +1.1M households +793K homeowners Source: Carolina Demography projections using ACS, CPS, and NC OSBM data
Increases in vacation homes also impact infrastructure demands Vacation home change by NC census tract, 2000 to 2010 Loss of 100 or more 5 to 99-99 to -5-4 to 4 100 to 249 250 or more Data Source: Carolina Demography
Faster growth among minority groups will increase diversity Population growth by race/ethnicity for North Carolina, 2010-2015 31% 21% 15% 3% 6% 4% Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau White Black American Indian Hispanic 2+ Asian
Future workforce more diverse than current workers Racial/ethnic distribution, NC adults (20+) and future workforce (0-19), 2015 White Black Hispanic Asian All Other Ages 20+ 67% 21% 7% Age 10-19 56% 24% 13% 5% Under 10 51% 23% 17% 6% Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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