Boston & Cambridge OUTLOOK 2019 Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC Principal, Pinnacle Advisory Group rroginsky@pinnacle-advisory.com
Boston & Cambridge Historic Occupancy 85.0% 80.5% 81.6% 81.5% 80.9% 82.2% 80.0% 75.0% 78.5% 73.9% 74.9% 76.0% 77.0% 74.6% 76.0% 76.7% 78.2% 70.0% 69.4% 72.2% 70.2% 71.2% 65.0% 60.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Boston & Cambridge Historic ADR $280 $260 $254 $255 $258 $240 $239 $220 $200 $180 $200 $181 $165 $166 $175 $195 $209 $214 $183 $190 $199 $216 $219 $160 $154 $140 $120 $100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Boston & Cambridge Historic RevPAR $250 $207 $206 $212 $200 $195 $150 $157 $126 $119 $108 $123 $131 $148 $161 $160 $131 $144 $152 $169 $176 $100 $50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Boston & Cambridge RevPAR % Change 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 7.9% 13.5% 7.0% 12.7% 8.8% 10.6% 5.4% 10.8% 4.4% 10.4% 6.4% 3.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.5% -5.0% -5.3% -10.0% -9.3% -15.0% -20.0% -19.7% -18.2% -25.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Boston & Cambridge Supply & Demand 10,000,000 8,000,000 CAGR 2000-2017 Supply 2.3% Demand 2.5% CAGR 2009-2017 Supply 1.4% Demand 3.2% 4.7% increase in supply in 2016, largest since 03 6,000,000 4,000,000 Supply Surge last three years: 2011 to 2014 (4yrs) : +103,000 rooms 2015 to 2017 (3yrs): +636,000 rooms 2,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Supply Demand
Boston & Cambridge Supply & Demand, % Change 6.0% 4.7% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Supply Demand
Boston & Cambridge YTD Performance, Sept 2018 YTD Sep 2017 YTD Sep 2018 % Change Occupancy 83.5% 84.0% +0.5% ADR $260.94 $262.45 +0.6% RevPAR $217.96 $220.59 +1.2%
Boston & Cambridge Future Rooms Supply Under Construction 12 Projects 3,224 Rooms Granted Approval 18 Projects 3,262 Rooms Awaiting Approval 10 Projects 2,900 Rooms 40 Projects and 9,386 Rooms in Pipeline Source: BPDA, CCDD, Compiled by Pinnacle Advisory Group Projects as of October 30, 2018. Does not include preliminary or rumored projects.
Boston & Cambridge New Supply 2018 Hotel Neighborhood Chain Scale Rooms Est. Opening Courtyard North Station North End / Downtown Upscale 220 Mar 2018 AC Hotel Ink Block South End Upscale 205 Mar 2018 Studio Allston Hotel Allston Indep. 117 Apr 2018 AC Hotel Cleveland Circle Brighton / Brookline Upscale 162 May 2018 Holiday Inn Express South Boston (Expansion) South Boston Upper Mid-Scale 60 Jul 2018 2.8% Supply Increase In 2018 Hotel 1868 Cambridge Indep. 50 Dec 2018 Source: Various Sources, Compiled by Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston & Cambridge New Supply 2019 Hotel Neighborhood Chain Scale Rooms Est. Opening Residence Inn West Roxbury Roxbury Upscale 135 Q1 The Revolution Hotel South End Indep. 164 Q1 Hyatt Centric Congress Square Downtown Upper Upscale 163 Q1 Four Seasons Back Bay Back Bay Luxury 211 Q1 Cambria South Boston South Boston Upscale 159 Q1 Moxy Theater District Theater District Upper Midscale (micro) 346 Q2 5.4% Supply Increase In 2019 Luxury Boutique Beacon Hill Beacon Hill Indep. 66 Q2 907 Main Cambridge Indep. 67 Q3 Source: Various Sources, Compiled by Pinnacle Advisory Group CitizenM North Station West End Upscale (micro) 269 Q4 Source: Various Sources, Compiled by Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston & Cambridge Projections 2018 2017 2018 % Change Occupancy 82.2% 82.5% +0.4% 3.1% growth in demand! ADR $258.34 $260 +0.8% RevPAR $212.38 $215 +1.2%
Boston & Cambridge Projections 2019 2018 2019 % Change Occupancy 82.5% 82% -1.2% 3.7% growth in demand! ADR $260 $258-1.0% RevPAR $215 $210-2.2%
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