Agenda Item E.2.g Supplemental Public Comment 2 April 2012
O Laughlin & Paris LLP Attorneys at Law SENT VIA ELECTRONIC MAIL March 26, 2012 Pacific Fishery Management Council 7700 NE Ambassador Place, Suite 101 Portland, Oregon 97220-1384 pfmc.comments@noaa.gov Re: Supplemental Public Comment for Salmon Management Alternatives Dear Council: These comments are submitted on behalf of the San Joaquin Tributaries Authority ( SJTA ) 1 for comment on the proposed salmon management alternatives for the 2012 ocean fisheries for Sacramento River fall-run Chinook salmon ( SRFC ). The alternatives for ocean salmon fisheries all rely on the Sacramento Index ( SI ) forecast of 819,400 adult and natural SRFC. If the forecast is correct, the conservation objective will be met and the stock will be rebuilt, but the operative word is if. Last year, the PFMC accepted the forecast as accurate, despite the acknowledged potential for bias, and assumed it had more than enough room for error in its alternatives. Since the adopted alternative allowed for an escapement of 377,000 SRFC, even if the forecast was off by 50 percent, the conservation objective would still be met. Unfortunately, the forecast was off by over 200 percent and the conservation objective was not met. The Salmon Technical Team ( STT ) has attempted to improve the forecast by using only data from the last three years. Even assuming the more recent data may be more representative of the current proportion of jack returns, the degree of uncertainty is great because the data remains very limited and the SST is extrapolating to predict a value well outside the range of data. The attempted improvements 1 The SJTA is a joint power authority consisting of Oakdale Irrigation District, South San Joaquin Irrigation District, Merced Irrigation District, Turlock Irrigation District, Modesto Irrigation District, and the City and County of San Francisco. SJTA members hold some of the most senior water rights in the San Joaquin River Basin. They own and operate dams and reservoirs, generate hydropower, and supply water to customers throughout Northern California for irrigation, municipal, and domestic supply. 2617 K Street, Suite 100 Sacramento, California 95816 (916) 993-3962 (916) 993-3688-fax 117 Meyers Street, Suite 110 Chico, California 95928 (530) 899-9755 (530) 899-1367-fax Mailing Address: Post Office Box 9259 Chico, California 95927
Pacific Fishery Management Council March 26, 2012 Page 2 are admirable, but it presently cannot be said whether the forecast is likely high, low, or on-target. There is knowing assessment and assumption of risk and then there is recklessness. Absent any indication of how accurate or inaccurate the forecast may be, the Council is managing the salmon fishery in a manner that is reckless at best. The alternatives were also developed without consideration for federal and California state laws mandating the doubling of the natural production of salmon in the Central Valley. Federal law has established a goal of doubling the natural production of salmon through the Central Valley Project Improvement Act ( CVPIA ) (Pub. Law 102-575, tit. 34, 3406 (b)(1)), while California has established a similar goal through the Salmon, Steelhead Trout, and Anadromous Fisheries Program Act (Cal. Fish & Game Code 6902(a).) The CVPIA defines natural production as "... fish produced to adulthood without direct human intervention in the spawning, rearing, or migration processes," and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service ( USFWS ) measures natural production based upon estimates of in-river and hatchery escapement, ocean and in-stream harvest, and the proportion of adults that is natural. 2 To achieve the doubling goal, the Department of the Interior ( DOI ), through the Anadromous Fish Restoration Program ( AFRP ), the federal program established to implement the CVPIA, has developed specific doubling goals for specific streams in the Central Valley. The goal for the tributaries on the east side of the San Joaquin River, and the Stanislaus, Tuolumne and Merced Rivers, is 78,000 naturally produced adult fall-run Chinook salmon. The AFRP strategy is premised upon improving the survival rate at different life stages in order to increase the number of returning adults per spawner (i.e., cohort replacement rate). 3 Its best and most ambitious scenario would produce 3.53 adults per spawner, with an estimated cohort replacement rate of 1.77 adults. Meeting the doubling goal for the San Joaquin River system would therefore initially require 22,096 natural spawners under the optimal scenario of survival rates. 4 In developing Amendment 16, the PFMC noted that San Joaquin River fall-run escapement has historically averaged about 4 percent of SRFC escapement. 5 Consequently, meeting the doubling goal for the San Joaquin River east side tributaries would require, on average, an SRFC escapement of at least 550,000. 6 However, because the historical percentage of San Joaquin River escapement relative to SRFC described in the Final Environmental Assessment for Amendment 16 included natural and hatchery escapement and Mokelumne River escapement, the minimum SRFC escapement required to double natural production for the Stanislaus, Tuolumne and Merced Rivers would therefore be even greater than 550,000. Since the proposed alternatives are expected to result in an SRFC escapement of no more than 465,300, all of the proposed alternatives would hinder achieving the doubling goal. 2 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 1995. Working paper: Habitat Restoration Actions to Double Natural Production of Anadromous Fish in the Central Valley of California. Volume 2. Prepared for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service under the direction of the Anadromous Fish Restoration Program Core Group, Stockton, CA. May 9, 1995. Page 2-IX-6 www.fws.gov/stockton/afrp/documents/workingpaper_v2.pdf 3 Department of the Interior. 2011. Comments on the Review of and Potential Modifications to the San Joaquin River Flow and Southern Delta Salinity Objectives Included in the 2006 Water Quality Control Plan for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary. Pages 16-25 http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/waterrights/water_issues/programs/bay_delta/bay_delta_plan/water_quality_control_planni ng/cmmnts020811/010811aaufdem.pdf 4 22,096 x 3.53 = 77,999 5 Pacific Fishery Management Council. 2011. Final Environmental Assessment and Regulatory Impact Review for Pacific Coast Salmon Plan Amendment 16: Classifying Stocks, Revising Status Determination Criteria, Establishing Annual Catch Limits and Accountability Measures, and De Minimis Fishing Provisions. p. 115. http://www.pcouncil.org/wpcontent/uploads/salmon_fmp_a16_final_ea_dec2011forweb.pdf 6 22,096/0.04 = 552,400
Pacific Fishery Management Council March 26, 2012 Page 3 The SJTA does not agree with many of the AFRP s assumptions and conclusions, but irrespective of the SJTA s positions, since the DOI s recommendations are made on behalf of the USFWS, they carry significant weight in other programs and processes. More than one billion dollars have been spent through the CVPIA alone to implement the doubling goal, and the flows DOI considers necessary to double the natural production of salmon would, in some years, appropriate nearly the entire San Joaquin River Basin. Despite the importance of the doubling goal as a policy, the staggering resources devoted to implementing it so far, and the staggering resources contemplated for implementing it in the future, the doubling goal has thus far not been a consideration in fishery management. This is both surprising and inexcusable, considering the USFWS and the California Department of Fish and Game are the agencies responsible for implementing the doubling goals and both sit on the Council. If Central Valley salmon are to be restored, consistent with the requirements of federal and California state law, then the doubling goal and its role in fishery management must be openly evaluated. A member of the PFMC s staff, Mr. Chuck Tracy, has contacted us in order to evaluate how the doubling goal can be incorporated into future fishery management processes. The SJTA welcomes and greatly appreciates such efforts and hopes this will lead to better coordination in the future, to better inform the public and other agencies, and, ultimately, improve the prospects for recovery of Central Valley salmon. At present, however, available information suggests that all of alternatives for proposed salmon management of SRFC for the 2012 ocean fisheries would hinder doubling natural production of salmon. The SJTA appreciates the opportunity to comment on this year s salmon fishing regulations. Please contact us if you have any questions. Very truly yours, O LAUGHLIN & PARIS LLP KENNETH PETRUZZELLI cc: San Joaquin Tributaries Authority State Water Resources Control Board Doug Demko, FISHBIO