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Africa on the Rise: Opportunities and Challenges African Development Bank Group Domenico Fanizza Executive Director October 2018
Africa: a vast and fragmented continent
The Africa Rising Story..
SSA has done well Figure 2.1a. Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP per Capita (PPP) 4,000 3,500 3,000 10 25 percent of distribution 25 50 percent of distribution 50 75 percent of distribution 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database. Note: PPP = Purchasing power parity. 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Figure 2.1b. Sub-Saharan Africa: Human Development Index 2000 2012 Source: United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report. PPP dollars Index Niger Congo, Dem. Rep. of Sierra Leone Mozambique Mali Burundi Ethiopia Chad Central African Rep. Liberia Rwanda Malawi Gambia, The Tanzania Uganda Angola Zimbabwe Zambia Benin Côte d'ivoire Senegal Togo Madagascar Cameroon Lesotho Kenya Ghana Congo, Republic of Equatorial Guinea Swaziland Cabo Verde Namibia Botswana South Africa Gabon Mauritius Seychelles
Demographic Trends: The youngest population in the World (60 percent < 25 years) with a rapidly expanding labor force. By 2040, Africa s labor force is likely to be larger than that of China and India.
Africa s Youth Bulge 8
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Opportunity/Challenge : Urbanization
Opportunity/Challenge: Infrastructure Normalized units Sub Saharan Africa- Low Income Countries Other Low Income Countries Paved Road Density 31 134 Total road density 137 211 Main line density 10 78 Mobile density 55 76 Internet density 2 3 Generation Density 37 326 Electricity Coverage 16 41 Improved water 60 72 Improved sanitation 34 51
Agriculture (1):
Africa is the most mobile-banked continent:
New technologies hold great promise: Comparative adoption of technologies in the United States and Kenya Source: Figure 1 from Suri, Jack and Stoker (2014), Documenting the Birth of a Financial Economy, PNAS, June 26, 2012 vol. 109 no. 26, pp. 10257-10262.
10 9 8 Projection of Mobile Subscriptions (from 2017 onward) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 200020012002200320042005 200620072008200920102011 2012201320142015201620172018 201920202021202220232024 202520262027202820292030 203120322033203420352036 OECD (log Mobile Suscription) Africa (log Mobile Suscription) OECD (log Mobile Suscription Projected) Africa (log Mobile Suscription Projected)
3 Change in Penetration Rate 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Africa OECD
Employment Simulation 1.400.000 1.200.000 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Work force Empt Ind with 6% Emp Ind with 12% Emp Ind with African recent Emp growth rate (5%)
HEADQUARTERS: Abidjan, CÔTE D'IVOIRE 19
AfDB Member Countries: 80 80 member countries in total: 54 African countries (regional members) 26 non African countries (non regional members) * UAE is only a member of ADF 20
THE AfDB GROUP - THREE WINDOWS African Development Bank Established in 1964 Authorized Capital as at Dec 2014: UA66.97 Billion (US$ 97 Billion) Member Countries of the Group: 80 Regional Member Countries: 54 Non-Regional Member Countries: 26 Nigerian Trust Fund Established in 1976 Its initial capital of US$ 80 million was replenished in 1981 with US$ 71 million African Development Fund Established in 1972 ADF 13 Replenishment (2014-2016): UA 4.86 Billion (US$ 7.3 Billion) 21
PROMOTING AFRICA S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT African Development Bank Group AfDB 24
The High 5s Light up and power Africa Unlock the continent s energy potential in order to drive muchneeded industrialization Improve the quality of life for the people of Africa Develop innovative flagship programs to open up opportunities for youth employment, improve access to basic services and create economic opportunities for the extreme poor Feed Africa Industrialize Africa Integrate Africa Transform agriculture to increase productivity, lower food prices, enhance food security, revive rural areas and create jobs for Africans Lead other partners in the process of industrializing Africa and developing the private sector to create wealth from natural assets Address barriers, create regional value chains and leverage complementarities in order to tap the continent s huge market potential 25
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