America s Diversity Explosion: What it means for Presidential Politics r WILLIAM H. FREY Brookings Institution and University of Michigan
Millions 225 U.S. White and Minority Populations, 1970-2050 200 175 150 125 100 75 WHITES MINORITIES 50 25 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census data
Diversity by generation: From the bottom up 1 2 3 3 By generation: From the bottom up By dispersal: From the melting pots out
Age 85+ Cultural Generation Gap: U.S. Population Compositions by Age and Race, 2015 65 84 50-64 35-49 18-34 5-17 Under 5 Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics 2+ races Other races Source: American Community Survey, 2015
Hispanic Concentration Areas and New Hispanic Destinations Hispanic Concentration modest growth Hispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by less than 43% between 2000 & 2010 Hispanic Concentration fast growth Hispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by at least 43% between 2000 & 2010 New Hispanic destinations Hispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by at least 86% between 2000 & 2010 Source: 2010 U.S. Census
America s Racial Kaleidoscope: Counties where minorities are overrepresented Black Hispanic Asian Other minority Two or more minority groups None Source: 2010 U.S. Census
Minority percentage of population 1980 2016 50+ % 40-49% 30-39% 20-29% 10-19% 0-9%
Melting pot cities and suburbs Reduced neighborhood segregation Multiracial marriage and identity Extending the political battleground
1 Demographics of elections through 2012 2 Demographics of the 2016 election 3 Implications for future presidential elections
Percent 100 80 Eligible Voters by Race, 2004 2016 8% 10% 11% 12% 3% 4% 4% 12% 5% 12% 12% 12% 60 40 75% 75.2 73% 71% 69% 73.4 71.1 68.9 20 0 2004 2008 2012 2016 White Black Asian Latino Other races Source: Current Population Survey, November 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 Supplements
Turnout rate 80 Voter turnout by race in the 2004, 2008, 2012 presidential elections 70 60 50 40 67 66 64 60 65 66 47 50 48 44 48 47 30 20 10 0 2004 2008 2012 2004 2008 2012 2004 2008 2012 2004 2008 2012 Source: Current Population Survey, November 2004, 2008, 2012 Supplements WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS
Voting margin by race in the 2004, 2008, 2012 presidential elections Margin 100 80 60 40 20 77 91 87 18 36 44 12 27 47 More Democratic 0-20 -40-17 -12-20 2004 2008 2012 2004 2008 2012 2004 2008 2012 2004 2008 2012 WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS More Republican Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported by CNN
Voting margin by age group, 2012 Margin 60 64 63 57 58 45 30 23 More Democratic 15 0-15 -7 7-4 -12 Ages 18-29 Ages 30-44 Ages 45-64 Ages 65+ -30-21 -23-22 WHITES MINORITIES TOTAL More Republican Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported by CNN
Presidential election results 2004 2008 2012 Source: America s Electoral Future, Brookings/CAP/AEI, February 2016 Democrat win, due to whites and minorities Democrat win, due to minorities but not whites Republican win
1 Demographics of elections through 2012 2 Demographics of the 2016 election 3 Implications for future presidential elections
States won by Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, 2016 Election Clinton (D) win due to whites and minorities Clinton (D) win due to minorities but not whites Trump (R) win Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported in CNN Election Center (www.cnn.com/election).
Voter Turnout by Race 2012 and 2016 80% 70% 60% 64% 65% 66% 60% 50% 48% 48% 47% 49% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 2016 2012 2016 2012 2016 2012 2016 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Source: Current Population Survey, November 2012 and 2016 Supplements
Voting margins by race, 2012 and 2016 87 81 44 47 38 38 More Democratic 2012 2016-20 -20 WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS More Republican
White vote margins by education, 2004-2016 -4-3 -11-14 -23-18 -26 More Republican 2004 2008 2012 2016-37 White, college White, non-college
Percent of white residents without college degree < 30% 30% < - 40% 30-40 40% - 50-50% 50% - 60-60% > 60 > 60%
White vote margins in Midwestern swing states, 2012 and 2016-3 -11-21 -16-15 -16-11 More Republican 2012 2016-29 Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Population Profiles of Counties that Voted for Trump and Clinton* TRUMP COUNTIES Age 85+ Age 75-84 Age 65-74 Age 55-64 Age 45-54 Age 35-44 Age 25-34 Age 15-24 Age <15 CLINTON COUNTIES Age 85+ Age 75-84 Age 65-74 Age 55-64 Age 45-54 Age 35-44 Age 25-34 Age 15-24 Age <15 Whites Minorities 0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 (Millions) (Millions) Whites Minorities Source: Author s analysis of David Leip s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections in 2016 and U.S. census population estimates, 2015. *Refers to total population (in millions) residing in counties that voted for Trump or Clinton.
Democratic-over-Republican Margin, by Age Group, 2016 Margin* 70 60 50 58 58 52 46 40 30 20 10 0 19 10 Ages 18-29 Ages 30-44 Ages 45-64 Ages 65+ -10-20 -4-17 -19-8 -7-30 -28 Whites Minorities Total Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported in CNN Election Center (www.cnn.com/election). *Margin is defined by percent voting for Democratic candidate minus percent voting for Republican candidate.
1 Demographics of elections through 2012 2 Demographics of the 2016 election 3 Implications for future presidential elections
Projections for eligible voters by race 20 Hispanic Percent of Eligible Voters 15 10 African-American Asians and others 5 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Source: Brookings, Diversity Explosion, 2018
Percent of eligible voters by age (%) 35 30 45-64 Percent of Eligible Voters 65+ 25 30-44 20 18-29 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Source: Brookings, Diversity Explosion, 2018
Millions 80 70 60 50 40 30 Projected Eligible Voters, by Race and Age, 2016 and 2028 47 49 53 62 78 75 47 68 20 10 0 0 2016 2028 2016 2028 2016 2028 2016 2028 Ages 18-29 Ages 30-44 Ages 45-64 Ages 65+ Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics Other races Source: Current Population Survey, November 2016 Supplement; author s calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau projections.
Minority Eligible Voters (%) 2016 2036 < 30% 30% - 40% 40% - 50% 50% - 60% > 60%
Election results assuming 2016 voting patterns 2020 2024 2028 279-259 306-232 322-216 Source: America s Electoral Future, Center for American Progress, Brookings, PRRI, and Bipartisan Policy Center
Voting Margins by Race 81 81 More Democrat 38 38 40 54 White Black Latino Asian More Republican 20 10 2016 Presidential 2018 House
White Margins by Age More Democrat 13 0 Age 18 29 Age 30 44 More Republican 4 17 19 19 13 Age 45 64 Age 65+ 28 2016 Presidential 2018 House
White Margins by Education and Gender More Democrat 20 7 Non college men More Republican 27 14 34 14 4 Non college women College men College women 48 2016 Presidential 2018 House
Election results assuming Non-college white swing to Republicans (+10 pts) 2020 2024 2028 209-329 214-324 214-324 Source: America s Electoral Future, Center for American Progress, Brookings, PRRI, and Bipartisan Policy Center
America s Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America r WILLIAM H. FREY Brookings Institution and University of Michigan
The Impact of Changing Demographics On American Politics Recent and Future Presidential Elections WILLIAM H. FREY University of Michigan and The Brookings Institution