Michael Pizzollaʼs 2009 Preakness Handicapping Magic Rant

From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla May 15, 2009 5:57 AM Las Vegas Dear Friend: Well, I really need to buy a tape recorder. Not only do I want to have a record of what I ve been hearing, I want to record some answers to questions I ve been asked a hundred times since the Kentucky Derby. Here s what my conversations have been like for the past 10 days. MOTO: (Oh, MOTO is Dan Serra s term for Master Of The Obvious, and I use it affectionately): WOW, did you see that Kentucky Derby! Me: Yes, quite a race. MOTO: Wasn t that a great ride by BoRAIL? Me: Yes, BorEL really rode the colt well. MOTO: I didn t have that horse, I liked (fill in the MOTO horse here). Did you have Mine That Bird? Me: Not even with a Ouija Board. MOTO: Well, he was 50-1, you can t bet a 50-1 shot, can you? Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 2

Me: Actually, I did, I had a 30-1 shot and two 50-1 shots keyed in my exotic bets. MOTO: Why did you do that? Me: It was a terrible betting race, and I wanted to bet a couple of hundred to make a couple of hundred thousand. MOTO: Too bad, well, you can t win every day, can you? Me: No, but Derby Day was a winning day for me. MOTO: How s that, you lost on the Derby? Me: I wasn t CLOSE in the Derby, but I knew going in that it was a race I really shouldn t be betting, other than trying to make a big, year-making score with a relatively small bet. The two horses I liked (and talked about in the Kentucky Derby Rant) ran very well. The 4 horse in the 4th at Belmont, Haley s Lolipop ran a fast closing 3rd at 10-1 in a 5 horse field. Missed that one. MOTO: So how was it a winning day? Me: Well, the other horse I liked was Senor Afortunado who missed by a nostril at 13-1 in the 12th at Hollywood, triggering a $244 exacta and that was all I needed for a profitable day. MOTO: Oh, that was late in the day, and it was a $12,500 Claiming Race in the 12th at Hollywood, non winners two lifetime. (Note: The MOTO who said this one was a respected physician who loves Southern California racing). Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 3

Me: I know. MOTO: How could you bet a race like that when there were so many classy races running on Derby Day? Me: Um, I invest in the races to win money, and to me races like that are things of beauty. MOTO: Yeah, yeah, so, who is it in the Preakness? A small tape recorder would have saved me many, many breaths I can never recover. You know, I came to realize just how differently I treat the game, just how differently I invest, than the average player. Not that I m any genius, it s just that over the years I ve learned to spot those horses that the public SHOULDN T like that have some good things going for it. And my life is made so much easier having an information management tool like Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper to cut through all the noise and all the information that s so readily accessible by everyone. That s what the game has come down to. You know, when I talk about races I hit, the most common thing I hear is that it is typically a very simple call, a very simple insight. Exactly. What s not seen is the hundred races I did NOT bet that day because I knew there were just a small handful of good opportunities. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 4

The key is FINDING those races, and I m blessed to have a tool like Black Magic, and its built in portfolios, so I can manage the information. I can do more good, incisive, profitable handicapping in an hour than I could do in six hours of grueling work, even with old-style software programs. As proud as I am of Black Magic, I ve got to tell you that I m even more proud of what those who are using the program are doing. At the risk of sounding like a proud parent, I need to brag on them a bit. It s just so darned satisfying when I see the lightbulb go on, that the game is so much more than picking winners, that the game is about making good investments, good value bets, waiting for your spots, biding your time. The exact opposite of stereotype of the desperate horseplayer, stabbing here and there, betting many more races than he should, overbetting his bankroll, rolling a heavy rock up a hill, like Sisyphus, only to have it roll down the other side so he must roll it back up again. I ve been there. Of course, there is much more to this game than just a good, sensible, realistic attitude, the tools ARE important, numbers ARE important, Form Patterns, class, Reversals, all of that ARE vitally important. But without the mindset of wanting to be successful at the game and acting accordingly: Betting horses you like that the public shouldn t and only betting when the bet makes you, all the numbers and clever patterns and spot plays in the world will be to no avail. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 5

There are a lot of examples I could give you of Wizards results, but three of them in the past few weeks really stick out: The first was from a Wizard who got Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper Software, and by his own admission didn t go through all of the DVDs that come with the program. I don t blame him. Listening to me drone on for hours and hours over 9 DVDs is not my idea of fun either. But there s a LOT to cover in the software, and as you may have noticed, I tend to explain a lot. It s my baby, after all, and I wanted to be sure that those getting it really understood all the nuances that make it work so well. So, yes, I did 9 full length DVDs with screen casts of me taking you through every aspect of the program, and every setting. (And if I remember, Post Time gave him another 7 DVDs, the ones I do every month for those on the Wizards Forum, so he could watch the ones that were produced before he got the software and joined the Forum, so there was even more to learn. Well, when he was going through one of them, he noticed that his readouts were different than what he saw on my screen on the DVDs. He called the office, and Brian helped him tweak his settings so that they matched what I use. Brian even was able to say, well, this was on the 8th DVD in the Intensive Series that came with the software. So, he got his settings right, and on April 22nd, he bet the 8th at Keeneland. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 6

He very modestly said that he only had the trifecta for a dollar, which is still $27,690.90 in American money! And what I m really so grateful for is how supportive the Wizards are on the Forum. The encouragement this Wizard got from the other Wizards will give you some idea of how everyone is pulling for each other. This is rare anywhere, especially in horse racing! I hope the Wizards don t mind me letting you look behind the curtain at their private Forum, but as I said, I feel like a really proud parent! Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 10

Now, of course, not all days are like this. But I ve got to tell you it s really gratifying to see a program that s been a dream of mine for at least 20 years produce like this, not just for me, but for those serious minded, investment minded, investors. Producing the DVDs and audios every month takes a lot of my time, but seeing the Wizards making progress and supporting each other makes every minute worth while. One more Wizard score, and we ll get to work. One student of my work just decided to get Black Magic. Now, you ll be able to tell from what he wrote that he s a pretty sharp handicapper to begin with. Nonetheless, he made a very tidy score on the very first race he played with BLAM! Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 18

Again, please excuse me for bragging on the Wizards, but they are doing really fine work. And our moderators, Bob Harris, Sam Meola, and Matt Russell are providing world-class mentoring on the Forum. Me? You know I like making really difficult calls on really difficult races. That must be your impression if you read my Rants, I know. Want to see the kind of genius calls I make on the kind of races I usually bet, with a brain-dead, I ve-had-a-really-long-day-i-don t-feel-like-gettingcute-with-bet-structure-i ll-just-simply-box bet structure? Now, if you take a look at what BLAM did with this race, you probably won t be able to spot the winner right away. But give it a whirl before you turn the page, just for the heck of it. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 20

Yes, I know, a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of three lifetime. Classy race. At Mountaineer. And here was my super-complicated bet structuring (I tore up a ticket with an 8-5-7 box). Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 21

While I enjoy taking races like the Preakness apart, these are the kind of simple, bread-and-butter races that I enjoy making small investments! Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 22

Having confessed that many of my bets are made on truly simple insights, it s time to take a part a real puzzle of a race. So, let s get to the Preakness. The first thing that I face every year in the Preakness is that many colts from the Derby show up for the Preakness. Most of my numbers are pace-based, specifically feet-per-second incremental velocity ratings. Trouble is, as the distances get longer, those numbers become less reliable. My early training in pace taught me that they were fine up to a mile and three-sixteenths, but after that I was advised not to even attempt making velocity numbers. I can still do my PBS and PPF ratings, of course, but the velocity ratings can get so skewed at a mile and a quarter that I don t even assign races 10 furlongs and up ratings. The Derby is run at 10 furlongs, so that means that the 7 colts returning from the Derby to run in the Preakness do not have a rating for their top race. While that s not insurmountable, it does put up a yellow caution light for me. As in, slow down. And then, because this handicapping puzzle isn t tough enough, we ve got a huge new element in this running of the Preakness. Her name is Rachel Alexandra. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 23

All this filly has done in her 3 year old season is win all four of her races by a combined total of almost 40 lengths. She won the Kentucky Oaks by over 20 lengths! Calvin BorEL who really did ride Mine That Bird brilliantly in the Derby opted to stay with Rachel in the Preakness. It s hard to fault him for that decision, as he has never lost when riding her. She looks like the real deal. Having said that, I m not going to get caught up in the hysteria. It certainly has brought a lot of interest to the race, and NBC is running commercials bringing up the Battle of the Sexes aspect. I think that s wonderful for the sport. I get a bit uncomfortable, though, when I hear Rachel Alexandra being compared to a filly that was, in my opinion, the greatest filly ever to run. Ruffian. Sure, it s easy to get sentimental about Ruffian. I remember the day in 1975. That was a big year for me. I learned to meditate earlier that year to deal with the stress of my first year at law school. That summer, a combination of twice a day meditation sessions and trips out to Belmont and Monmouth Park were a welcome relief from the rigors of law school. I happened to be at the races the year before at Belmont in May when she broke her maiden. (Professor Moreno, after 34 years, I admit, I wasn t at the Dean s office, I just cut your Politics class that Wednesday to go to the track. There I feel better!) Ruffian must have won by 15 lengths, breaking from the outside and just demolishing the field. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 24

She was never headed in another race. I was in the paddock at Belmont in June of 75 before the Oaks and remember the impression she made on me when she walked by. It seemed like she was almost black with this little white spot between her eyes and a bearing of a real champion. She handled the mile and a half (a FILLY going 12 furlongs!) like the champion she was. And then came July 6th. I don t remember if it was the track or New York City OTB that ran a promotion where they gave out these huge pin-on buttons with either Ruffian s picture or Foolish Pleasure s picture. It was a muggy Sunday at Belmont and the thought of that tragedy brings tears to my eyes as I type this. I wept unabashedly, still wearing that big Ruffian button, and was not alone. It was surreal, to see this champion who won all 10 of her races, who was never behind at any call, break down. It was surreal seeing my friends who were with me and some hardened railbirds with tears streaming down their faces amid a huge crowd that stood for what seemed like forever in stunned silence. So, yes, I m biased: Ruffian was the greatest. Rachel Alexandra is a very nice filly, but I m not ready to put her in Ruffian s class just yet. And my hard-hearted investor side sees Rachel A as the 8/5 morning line favorite breaking from the 13 post, a filly running against colts. So, even though she s the Fulcrum, I m going to see if I can find a value bet to make against her. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 25

There aren t many colts who absolutely must have the lead in the race. Several have had the lead at both the first and second calls in routes, Rachel Alexandra, of course, Papa Clem, Flying Private, Tone It Down, and surprisingly, Mine That Bird. There is one colt that has run on the lead in his sprints, and has won both of his routes on the lead at the second (but not the first) call. That would be the 1, Big Drama. Naturally since he s on the rail, I expect Velasquez to take him to the front. From a velocity perspective, he may have the tactical speed to get a good lead. It s a bit tricky to project what that time will be, since he had the lead in routes at 114 and 1 at Calder and 111 and 2 at Delta. But he s got some pretty impressive sprint times, notably a 108 and 2 six furlong pace in his win (and subsequent DQ) in the Swale at Gulfstream. Admittedly, the track was fast that day, but 108 and change is race horse time even on cement. So, one scenario is that Big Drama bursts out of the gate, outsprints Rachel Alexandra for the lead and plays catch me if you can. This Pimlico meet, it looks to me that the track profile for the routes is running POSITIONALLY early (horses not too far back at the first and second calls) but the range of VELOCITY energy expenditure can be a pretty wide range. Both Big Drama and Rachel Alexandra fit that, the difference being that Big Drama is 10-1 Morning Line and Rachel is 8/5. There s another colt in the top cluster of the Black Magic Odds Line that interests me. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 26

That s the 8, General Quarters. In 2009, this colt has been running a classic in and out pattern. A loss on January 17th, followed by a win on Valentine s Day in the SF Davis at Tampa Bay. Next race, a disappointing 5th in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 14th, followed by a very nice win in the Blue Grass on April 11th. Then the Derby where it was steadied a few times, and finished 10th. Looking at the last two races, this is a nice Type 1 pattern, a really good finish followed by a poor finish. It s hard to say with certainty what this colt s true running style is. He s won from off the pace, and has had a couple of nice wins from just off the pace. Even in those POSITIONALLY early races, he s shown a good late energy expenditure. Positionally can run early, velocity can turn it on late. To make it a bit simpler, while Big Drama and Rachel Alexandra are 1-2 on the Black Magic Odds Line (biased to an unpressured scenario), the third on the line is General Quarters whose morning line is 20-1 and looks to be overlooked by the public. Ah, a horse (okay, okay, colt) I like that the public SHOULDN T. Remember: I read an interesting comment about him after the Derby. His trainer, Tom McCarthy said that when he looked at General Quarters when he came back to be unsaddled, he had one eye completely closed from the mud, and had so much mud in one of its nostrils that it was completely impacted. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 27

Is that enough to excuse a 10th place finish in the Derby? At 5-1, no. At 20-1 with a nice in and out pattern, Type 1 pattern, third on the odds line, I buy the mud in your eye excuse. So, I ve got my keys, and now the rest will be filling out the exotics. I think Fresian Fire belongs in the exotics, and after that it gets tricky. Papa Clem is solid, and it s hard to overlook Mine That Bird s late run. I ll use them judiciously in the exotics depending on the odds. Unlike the Derby, I think this may be a good opportunity for a value investment. I ve got a hyped favorite, an early type breaking from the outside and a filly to boot, and a couple of solid long priced horse in my top cluster on Black Magic. Let me show you how BLAM sees the Preakness: Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 28

Note that in the Late scenario, Rachel Alexandra is still there, Big Drama drops out, and Papa Clem and Mine That Bird are prominent. Still in the top cluster is the 8, General Quarters. The AccuPressure V2 scenario looks like this: Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 31

AccuPressure V2 gives the best guess scenario that the race, while positionally pressured (several entries that want the lead), one colt, Big Drama, may have the velocity to get a clear lead. Value Tech, which points out the horses that have merit yet should be overlooked by the public shows this: Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 32

I agree with that assessment, and odds permitting, I ll have a nice bet on General Quarters, perhaps on Big Drama if I get a very good price, and will key and box those with the others. The home run will be if Rachel runs out, and the late horses pick up the pieces with General Quarters and Big Drama in there. As I do with every Triple Crown race and Breeders Cup, I urge you to look at the other races running on Preakness Day. There s bound to be a bunch of MOTO money in the pools. I m going to take a look at the 3rd at Pimlico, a turf race for Maidens, a modest field to be sure. The crowd will be all over the 5 horse, Stonestreet Star, who seems to like finishing second. They ll probably make the 4, Winter Walk the second favorite. The horse that I ll be looking at is the 2, Pocket Patch, top of the BLAM odds line, and a Reverser that s also 3rd start after a layoff. 8-1 morning line.the 7, Jazzman s Dance is the Fulcrum and second on the BLAM odds line, 10-1 morning line. If the odds are in line with the Morning Line, I ll have a nice exacta box with the 2 and 7, have the 4 and 5 to complete the tris, and of course, will put the first time starter on top in a tri/super key. Well that s about it for this year s Preakness Rant. I hope you ve picked up a pointer or two, over and above the handicapping of the Preakness. Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 33

I hope this finds you well, and please let the bet make you! All the best, Michael P.S. If you have any questions or comments, or just want to let me know how you re doing with your handicapping, you can drop me a line at michael@posttimedaily.com. Be patient, as I m having loads of scintillating conversations usually beginning with, Hey Michael, who do you like in the Preakness?... Also, if you re interested in Black Magic Ultimate Handicapping Software, let me know, and I ll be sure to put you on the list when we open it up again for membership. P.P.S. Post Time is making a special Triple Crown deal for Rant subscribers for the Mega Seminar In A Box package. It was recorded at a live seminar, and goes into great detail about the concepts of Form Patterns, conditioning, and how to find the best value bets. Plus, there are a ton of free bonuses. The manual is on disk instead of a big heavy printed binder, saving printing costs, and they re making an outrageously good offer on it. If you re interested, use this link, and click on one of the orange buttons that says Click Here For The Special Handicapping Rant Deal. As I remember, it s less than half what everyone else pays. If you want to get in on the Seminar in a Box special, use this link: http:///software/seminar_box_special.html Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 34

Michael Pizzolla: michael@posttimedaily.com Post Time Solutions, Inc.: Handicapping Magic Third Edition: www.handicappingmagic.com Black Magic Ultimate Handicapping Software : Openings coming soon Copyright 2009 By Michael Pizzolla. All Rights Reserved 35