EFICA 2017 Sommarøy Nordic Coastal & Fishing vessel trends

EFICA 2017 Sommarøy Nordic Coastal & Fishing vessel trends Astrid Seltmann Analyst/Actuary, The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers (Cefor) astrid.seltmann@cefor.no

NORWAY THE OUTSIDE PERSPECTIVE Cold & Dark

NORWAY THE INSIDE PERSPECTIVE Hunting the Light

NORWAY THE HAPPINESS PERSPECTIVE Hunting the Happiness http://worldhappiness.report/ed/2017/

CONTENTS Cefor & The () Nordic Coastal trends Portfolio: Numbers, values, age Claims trends Nordic Fishing vessel trends Portfolio breakdown and evolution Claims trends Special focus: Seasonal / Weather impact 5

THE NORDIC ASSOCIATION OF MARINE INSURERS (CEFOR) Trade association for marine insurers operating in Nordic countries 14 members engaging in Hull&Machinery (ocean&coastal), cargo, P&I, legal defence (FD&D), war risks, offshore energy, builders' risks. Mission: promote quality marine insurance through: comprehensive statistics competence building agreed all risks insurance conditions a common public voice.

THE NORDIC ASSOCIATION OF MARINE INSURERS (CEFOR) Trade association for marine insurers operating in Nordic countries 14 members engaging in Hull&Machinery (ocean&coastal), cargo, P&I, legal defence (FD&D), war risks, offshore energy, builders' risks. Mission: promote quality marine insurance through: comprehensive statistics competence building agreed all risks insurance conditions a common public voice.

NORDIC MARINE INSURANCE STATISTICS (NOMIS) Ocean and coastal hull trends 1985-2017 > 400,000 registered vessel years > 91,000 claims

NOMIS COOPERATION Agreed scope of reporting Hull & Machinery insurance data Other insurance/object types (e.g. offshore units) can be included, depending on members needs Agreed formats & codes Reported: Vessel, coverage and claims details Codes as agreed, e.g. three-level claims coding (type of casualty, damaged part, initial cause) Quarterly data production Input: Data extracts (Members to Cefor) Output: Hull trends updates ocean & coastal (Cefor to members)

NOMIS DATA FLOW Input Cefor members insurance data database Insurance data tables (insured values, deductibles, claims) Output Norges Bank/Nordea (public sources) Exchange rates Statistics World fleet data (external data sources: LLI, IHS) Ship data tables (ship characteristics, engine, detentions etc)

COASTAL TRENDS PORTFOLIO

SCOPE OF COASTAL STATS Years: 1996-2016 Coastal defined as including all vessels of type Fishing <= 5,000 gross ton or <= 15m length (excluding supply/offshore vessels; for these and all larger tonnage see: The 2016 Cefor ocean hull report ) Coastal figures in Norwegian kroner NOK on accident year basis (claims allocated to calendar year in which claim occurred). 12 as of 31 December 2016

COASTAL PORTFOLIO BY CURRENCY 0.3% 14% 9% 5% 11% 61% NOK EUR SEK DKK USD other => COASTAL STATS ARE PRESENTED IN NOK TO MINIMIZE THE CURRENCY CONVERSION EFFECT ON TRENDS.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EXCHANGE RATES NORDIC CURRENCIES USD exchange rates against Nordic currencies and Euro 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% SEK (Sweden) EUR (Euro) & DKK (Denmark) NOK (Norway) 70% 60% 14 as of 31 December 2016

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 COASTAL NO. OF VESSELS BY TYPE NOK Number of vessels by type, by year of exposure 14,000 Other 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Tank (Chem./Prod., LNG, LPG, OBO, Tank) Passenger Cargo (Bulk, Cargo, Container) Fishing From 2010 improved reporting by coastal marine mutuals => Increase in number of reported small craft, especially fishing vessels 15 as of 31 December 2016

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 COASTAL HULL AVERAGE AGE Average age 30.0 25.0 20.0 20.5 20.8 20.9 21.3 21.9 23.9 23.8 22.7 22.6 25.2 24.9 24.1 24.5 25.5 26.3 26.5 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.4 28.5 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 16 as of 31 December 2016

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 COASTAL HULL AVERAGE INS. VALUE NOK Sum Insured per vessel, per underwriting year 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 17 as of 31 December 2016

COASTAL TRENDS CLAIMS

COASTAL CLAIMS BY TYPE NUMBERS Number of claims 2011-2015 Number of claims 2016 2.9% 0.5% 14.0% 25.8% Machinery 14.9% 0.4% Fire/Explosion 2.2% Collision 28.3% Machinery Fire/Explosion Collision 12.2% 5.1% 2.6% Contact 12.2% Grounding Ice Heavy weather Other / unknown 5.3% 2.8% Contact Grounding Ice Heavy weather Other / unknown 36.8% 33.9% Total number of claims: 2011-2015: 8,425 2016: 1,397 19 as of 31 December 2016

COASTAL CLAIMS BY TYPE - COST Cost of claims 2011-2015 Cost of claims 2016 3.3% 0.3% 13.5% 33.0% Machinery Fire/Explosion Collision 23.6% 30.3% Machinery Fire/Explosion Collision 0.3% 0.1% Contact Grounding Contact Grounding 24.7% Ice 11.5% Ice Heavy weather Heavy weather 10.9% 6.1% 8.3% Other / unknown 9.3% 22.3% Other / unknown 2.5% Total cost, NOK million: 2011-2015: 3,345.2 2016: 739.0 20 as of 31 December 2016

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 COASTAL CLAIMS FREQUENCY INCL. IBNR RESERVE FOR FREQUENCY OF PARTIAL CLAIMS 35% Claims frequency - total and partial losses 1.20% 30% 1.00% 25% 0.80% 20% 15% 0.60% 10% 5% Total loss frequency stable, but higher than for ocean hull business 0.40% 0.20% 0% 0.00% Partial losses Losses exceeding 75% of the insured value 21 as of 31 December 2016

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 COASTAL CLAIM COST PER VESSEL BY SIZE OF CLAIM PAID & OUTSTANDING AS REPORTED, NO IBNR RESERVE ADDED NOK 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Volatility created by claims xs 10 MNOK > 10 MNOK <=10 MNOK <=5 MNOK <= 1 MNOK 22 as of 31 December 2016

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 COASTAL CLAIMS BY TYPE AVERAGE COST PER CLAIM NOK 1,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Fire/Explosion Collision, Contact, Grounding Machinery Heavy weather Ice 23 as of 31 December 2016

BREAKDOWN OF COASTAL PORTFOLIO SELECTED VESSEL TYPE & SIZE GROUPS 2011-2015 2016 15.3% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% Fishing <=15m/25gt Fishing <=15m/25gt 36.9% Fishing <= 300gt Fishing > 300gt 35.4% Fishing <= 300gt Fishing > 300gt Fishing - gt unknown Fishing - gt unknown Passenger <= 15m/25gt Passenger <= 15m/25gt 20.7% 20.8% Passenger >15m/25gt Passenger - gt unknown Passenger >15m/25gt Passenger - gt unknown Barges Barges Other <=15m/25gt Other <=15m/25gt Other > 15m/25gt Other > 15m/25gt 4.8% 0.0% 8.3% 5.1% 2.8% 2.9% 3.3% Other - gt unknown 5.9% 0.0% 8.0% 5.0% 4.8% 3.0% 2.6% Other - gt unknown Total number of vessels: 2011-2015: 59,510 2016: 12,220 24 as of 31 December 2016

CLAIMS FREQUENCY SELECTED VESSEL TYPE & SIZE GROUPS 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Fishing <=15m/25gt Fishing <= 300gt Fishing > 300gt Passenger <= 15m/25gt Passenger >15m/25gt Barges Other <=15m/25gt Other > 15m/25gt all 25 as of 31 December 2016

CLAIM PER VESSEL SELECTED VESSEL TYPE & SIZE GROUPS NOK 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Fishing <=15m/25gt Fishing <= 300gt Fishing > 300gt Passenger <= 15m/25gt Passenger >15m/25gt Barges Other <=15m/25gt Other > 15m/25gt all 26 as of 31 December 2016

CLAIM PER SUM INSURED SELECTED VESSEL TYPE & SIZE GROUPS 1.400% 1.200% 1.000% 0.800% 0.600% 0.400% 0.200% 0.000% Fishing <=15m/25gt Fishing <= 300gt Fishing > 300gt Passenger <= 15m/25gt Passenger >15m/25gt Barges Other <=15m/25gt Other > 15m/25gt all 27 as of 31 December 2016

FISHING VESSEL TRENDS - PORTFOLIO

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FISHING VESSELS NUMBERS Number of fishing vessels, by year of exposure 6,000 5,290 5,367 5,404 5,520 5,705 5,598 5,000 4,248 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,224 1,152 1,120 1,144 1,190 1,196 1,323 1,612 2,314 2,066 2,726 2,874 2,759 1,000 0 From 2010 improved reporting by coastal marine mutuals => increase in no. of fishing vessels 29 as of 31 December 2016

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FISHING VESSELS AGE Average age - Fishing vessels 30.0 25.0 20.0 20 21 20 20 21 21 22 21 22 23 23 22 22 21 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 From 2010 improved reporting by coastal marine mutuals => Increase in no. of fishing vessels 30 as of 31 December 2016

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FISHING VESSELS AV. INSURED VALUE NOK 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 Average insured value - Fishing vessels From 2010 improved reporting by coastal marine mutuals => Increase in number of minor coastal fishing vessels => Decrease in average insured value 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 31 as of 31 December 2016

FISHING VESSELS BY CURRENCY The majority of fishing vessels are Norwegian. 0.5% 6.9% 1.6% 2.7% 0.01% 2011-2015 NOK DKK EUR SEK USD 0.9% 6.8% 4.0% 2.2% 0.02% 2016 NOK DKK EUR other SEK USD other 86.1% 88.2% Total number of fishing vessels: 2011-2015: 27,495 2016: 5,478 32 as of 31 December 2016

FISHING VESSEL TRENDS - CLAIMS

CLAIMS BY TYPE NUMBERS Fishing vessels have a high number of contact claims, but... 2011-2015 2016 2.6% 11.5% 0.3% 8.5% 23.9% Machinery 2.0% Fire/Explosion 0.4% Collision Contact 8.9% 14.2% 27.5% Machinery Fire/Explosion Collision Contact 3.2% Grounding Grounding 2.1% Ice Heavy weather 2.5% 2.9% Ice Heavy weather 47.8% Other / unknown 41.7% Other / unknown Total number of claims: 2011-2015: 4,817 2016: 840 34 as of 31 December 2016

CLAIMS BY TYPE COST contact claims are usually not costly. Machinery damage accounts for 34% of the total claims cost, followed by fire/explosion (16%) and groundings (11%). 2011-2015 2016 2.6% 0.3% 11.4% 17.2% 33.8% Machinery Fire/Explosion 0.9% Collision 0.5% Contact Grounding 12.9% Ice 19.5% 49.3% Machinery Fire/Explosion Collision Contact Grounding Ice 9.0% 10.0% 15.7% Heavy weather Other / unknown 9.3% 1.7% 5.9% Total cost in NOK million: 2011-2015: 913.1 2016: 174.5 Heavy weather Other / unknown 35 as of 31 December 2016

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CLAIMS FREQUENCY Claims frequency, by date of loss 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 36 as of 31 December 2016

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CLAIMS BY TYPE - FREQUENCY Claims frequency 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 Collision, Contact, Grounding, Ice Machinery 0.05 Other Heavy weather 0.00 Fire/Explosion 37 as of 31 December 2016

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CLAIM COST PER VESSEL NOK Claim per vessel, by date of loss 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 38 as of 31 December 2016

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 AVERAGE CLAIM COST NOK 600,000 Average claim cost, by date of loss 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 39 as of 31 December 2016

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CLAIM COST PER SUM INSURED Claim per Sum Insured, by date of loss 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 40 as of 31 December 2016

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CLAIMS BY TYPE COST PER VESSEL NOK 25,000 Claim per vessel per type of casualty, by date of loss 20,000 Increase in machinery claim cost per vessel Fire/Explosion 15,000 Collision, Contact, Grounding, Ice 10,000 Machinery 5,000 Heavy weather 0 41 as of 31 March 2017

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CLAIMS BY TYPE AV. CLAIM COST FIRE/EXPL., MACHINERY & NAVIGATIONAL NOK 1,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Average claim cost (NOK 1,000) Increase in av. cost of machinery claims 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 Collision, Contact, Grounding Fire/explosion Machinery 42 as of 31 March 2017

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CLAIMS BY TYPE AV. CLAIM COST ICE, HEAVY WEATHER NOK 1,000 Average claim cost (NOK 1,000) Ice and weather-related claims 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Ice Heavy weather 43 as of 31 March 2017

FISHING VESSELS: SEASONAL IMPACT

SEASONAL IMPACT: CLAIMS FREQUENCY BY MONTH 35.0 % 30.0 % 25.0 % 20.0 % 15.0 % 10.0 % 5.0 % 0.0 % jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 45 as of 31 December 2015

SEASONAL IMPACT: CLAIM COST PER VESSEL BY MONTH NOK 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 46 as of 31 December 2015

FISHING VESSELS: SUMMARY From 2011 annually ~ 5,500 fishing vessels reported, mostly Norwegian, with an average age of 27 years. Breakdown of claims: Nearly 50% contact damage, but account for only 9% of the cost ca. 25% machinery damage, accounts for > 30% of the cost, followed by fire/explosion (16%) and groundings (11%) of the total cost Claims frequency: Stable to positive trend. Clear seasonal increase in claims frequency during fishing high-season in February/March, but without visible impact on cost. Claims cost: Overall stable, but some recent increase in cost of machinery claims. 47 as of 31 December 2016

CEFOR NOMIS PUBLICATIONS 2017 Next update Hull trends as of June 2017 to be published late August 2017. All Cefor Statistics at http://cefor.no/statistics/nomis/