Impacts of the 2008-2009 US West Coast salmon ocean fishery closure on salmon troll vessels Kate Richerson Dan Holland Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Hello!
What happened to salmon fishermen during a historic ocean fishery closure? Exited fishing? Increased participation in other fisheries? Who was most vulnerable? Can this inform us in the event of another closure?
1. The 2008-2009 salmon ocean fishery closure What happened?
Collapse of the Sacramento River Fall Chinook (SRFC) Record low returns attributed to poor ocean conditions Complete closure of the ocean fishery south of Cape Falcon, Oregon
Review of 2015 Ocean Salmon Fisheries 128 FEBRUARY 2016 Millions of Fish Fishery declared a disaster 3.0 Coast-wide federally-declared disasters 2.5 Coho 2.0 1992-1995: $29 million in disaster aid 1998: $11 million 1.5 Chinook 2008-9: $170 million 1.0 0.5 0.0 Year Figure IV-1. West Coast ocean non-indian commercial Chinook and coho harvest.
Another closure this year? Catches have been declining since 2012 The Blob, drought, switch to positive PDO predicted to result in low returns
Another closure this year?
2. The West Coast salmon fishery Who might have been affected?
Focal vessels Fished at least 3 years during 2001-2007 Averaged >$1,000/year in salmon troll revenue Salmon troll accounts for >5% of total annual revenue
Focal vessels 1,236 vessels Diverse in terms of location, revenue, target species Groundfish Crab Salmon Coastal pelagics Shrimp Highly migratory species
Number Number Number Number Number Number Vessel characteristics 400 Revenue Diversification Location 300 200 100 200 100 50 100 0 0 0 0 200,000 400,000 Mean annual revenue (USD) 0.00010 0.00015 0.00020 0.00025 Mean inverse HHI 35 40 45 50 Mean latitudinal center of gravity ( N) 200 150 Dependence on salmon 300 Years fished 750 Range 100 200 500 50 100 250 0 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Mean percent of revenue from salmon troll 0 4 8 12 16 Number of years fished 0 0 5 10 15 20 Mean latitudinal inertia ( N 2 )
3. Impacts of the closure What happened to these vessels?
Modeling the vessel-level impact of the closure Does a vessel fish in a given year? If so, how much money does it make relative to its long term average? How did the closure affect 1 and 2? Did vessels exit permanently? Can vessel characteristics predict responses?
Modeling the vessel-level impact of the closure Choice to fish: logistic mixed-effects model Choice to exit: logistic model Revenue: linear mixed-effects models Effects of year, vessel characteristics, and presence of closure
Number of vessels Modeling the vessel-level impact of the closure Vessels less likely to fish at all during closure, particularly if they were: More dependent on salmon Less diversified Further south Higher revenue 1100 1000 900 800 700 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year
Modeling the vessel-level impact of the closure Many vessels returned after closure, but ~17% exited permanently. They tended to be: More dependent on salmon Fished fewer years Lower revenue Less diversified
Modeling the vessel-level impact of the closure Vessels made less money relative to their long-term mean, particularly if they were: More dependent on salmon Higher revenue Fished fewer years
Impact on total revenue 5-year average before closure: $55 million 2008-2009: $32-36 million Overall loss: ~$43 million Salmon loss: ~$35 million Revenue from focal vessels
Predictions Current salmon vessels are slightly less dependent on salmon, less diversified no closure closure Models predict similar impacts if there is another closure this year no closure closure
4. Impacts on other fisheries Did vessels divert their effort into other fisheries?
Proportion Participation in other fisheries Little evidence that vessels were more likely to participate in non-salmon fisheries in 2008-9. 0.8 0.6 Management group Salmon Crab Groundfish Highly migratory species 0.4 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year
Total number of trips Participation in other fisheries Little evidence that vessels took more trips in non-salmon fisheries in 2008-9. 20000 15000 10000 Number of trips by vessels that fished during closure Management group Salmon Crab Groundfish Highly migratory species 5000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Share 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Share 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Share 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Share 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 Participation in other fisheries Little evidence that vessels altered their seasonal fishing patterns. Crab Groundfish 2001 2005 2009 2013 Time Highly migratory species 2001 2005 2009 2013 Time Salmon 2001 2005 2009 2013 Time 2001 2005 2009 2013 Time
Conclusions 1. Many vessels didn t fish at all during the closure, and some never returned. 2. Vessel characteristics influenced response to closure. 3. Little evidence of increased participation in other fisheries. 4. Another closure predicted to have similar effects.
Thanks! Any questions?
Focal vessels Characterized by: Revenue (mean annual revenue) Dependence on salmon (mean percent of revenue from salmon) Location (mean latitudinal center of gravity) Range (mean latitudinal inertia) Diversification (inverse HHI) Years fished
Latitude Community-level effects (48.1,49] (47.3,48.1] (46.4,47.3] (45.5,46.4] (44.7,45.5] (43.8,44.7] (43,43.8] (42.1,43] (41.3,42.1] (40.4,41.3] (39.6,40.4] (38.7,39.6] (37.8,38.7] (37,37.8] (36.1,37] (35.3,36.1] (34.4,35.3] (33.6,34.4] (32.7,33.6] Total revenue from salmon troll vessels 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Revenue (millions USD) 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0
Community-level effects 2010 2015 2008 2009 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 2 1 0 1 2 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 Mean % of total port revenue from vessels that participate in salmon troll Annual revenue anomaly 36 40 44 48 Latitude R 2 =0.07, p=0.01 R 2 =0.20, p<0.001 R 2 =0.20, p<0.001 R 2 =0.07, p=0.01
Models logit(p yi ) = a + b 1 y + b 2 closure y + b 3 mean.revenue yi + b 4 mean.hhi yi + b 5 mean.percent.troll yi + b 6 mean.lcg yi + b 6 mean.li yi + b 7 years. fished yi + b 8 closure y mean.revenue yi + b 9 closure y mean.hhi yi + b 10 closure y mean.percent.troll yi + b 11 closure y mean.lcg yi + b 12 closure y mean.li yi + b 13 closure y years. fished yi + a i z yi = a + b 1 y + b 2 closure y + b 3 mean.revenue yi + b 4 mean.hhi yi + b 5 mean.percent.troll yi + b 6 mean.lcg yi + b 7 mean.li yi + b 8 years. fished + b 9 closure mean.revenue yi + b 10 closure mean.hhi yi + b 11 closure mean.percent.troll yi + b 12 closure mean.lcg yi + b 13 closure mean.li yi + b 14 closure years. fished yi +e logit(p) = a + b 1 mean.revenue+ b 2 mean.hhi + b 3 mean.percent.troll + b 4 mean.lcg + b 5 mean.li + b 6 years. fished