PHILADELPHIA REGIONAL HOUSE PRICE INDICES November 28, KEVIN C. GILLEN, Ph.D. Kevin.C.Gillen@Drexel.edu Sponsored By: Disclaimers and Acknowledgments: The Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation at Drexel University and Houwzer Inc. provide this report free of charge to the public. The report is produced by Kevin Gillen, a Senior Research Fellow with the Lindy Institute and a Senior Economic Advisor with Houwzer. The author thanks Houwzer Inc., Azavea.com, the Philadelphia Office of Property Assessment, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC, RealtyTrac, Zillow.com, Trulia.com and the NAHB for making their data available for this report., Drexel University, All Rights Reserved.
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 540.0 Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-1980Q1=100 490.0 440.0 Phila. Region* U.S. Avg.** 390.0 340.0 290.0 240.0 190.0 140.0 90.0 Q3 *Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD **Courtesy Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
390.0 House Price Appreciation 1987-: Philadelphia Region v. 10-City U.S. Composite 340.0 10-City Composite* 290.0 Philadelphia Region 240.0 % Change 10-City Philadelphia 1998 to Peak: +172% +106% From Peak: -0.4% -2.5% 190.0 140.0 90.0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 *Source: Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC. The 10-City Composite Index includes Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC. It does not include Philadelphia. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980- by Philadelphia Region and State: 1980Q1=100 590.0 490.0 Phila. Region* DE** NJ** PA** 390.0 290.0 190.0 90.0 Q3 *Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D. **Courtesy Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 590.0 540.0 490.0 Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980- City v. Suburb v. U.S. Average.: 1980Q1=100 Philadelphia* Phila. Suburbs* U.S. Avg.** 440.0 390.0 340.0 290.0 240.0 190.0 140.0 90.0 *Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D. Note: The suburban index includes all counties in the regional index, except for Philadelphia county.
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 30.0% YoY Change in Average House Prices: 1980- Philadelphia County v. Philadelphia Suburbs v. 10-City Composite 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Phila. Suburbs* Philadelphia* 10-City Composite** -25.0% *Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D. **Empirically estimated by Case-Shiller. The 10-City Composite reflects average annual house price changes in ten large US cities, including: Boston Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC. It does not include Philadelphia.
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices 1980-, by County 1980Q1=100 590.0 490.0 390.0 Philadelphia* Bucks Chester Delaware Montgomery New Castle Mercer Burlington Camden Gloucester Salem 290.0 190.0 90.0 Q3 *All indices empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, PhD
Total House Price Appreciation Rates by Philadelphia Area Submarket and U.S. Period Philadelphia County* Philadelphia Suburbs* U.S.A.** 39-Year 172.2% 146.6% 147.1% 10-Year 23.6% -3.2% 23.2% 1-Year 0.0% 1.5% 6.3% 1-Quarter 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% *Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen Ph.D. **Source: U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). These numbers are through Q2 only. MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area, which is the entire 10-county region.
Philadelphia Region House Price Appreciation Rates by County Period Philadelphia Bucks Chester Delaware Montgomery New Castle Mercer Burlington Camden Gloucester Salem 38-Year 172% 168% 162% 142% 155% 140% 163% 128% 122% 135% 102% 10-Year 23.6% 4.2% 6.1% -2.1% 4.4% -3.8% -4.4% -11.7% -16.9% -14.0% -47.4% 1-Year 0.0% 3.6% 1.8% 4.7% 5.3% 4.8% 2.8% 6.2% 4.3% 0.5% -2.5% 1-Quarter 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% -1.1% 2.1% -0.8% -0.4% 5.1% -0.3% -2.8% -3.2% All county-level indices and appreciation rates estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
Q3 House Price Rate of Change by County Montgomery: +2.1% Bucks: +0.7% Philadelphia: +0.2% Mercer: -0.4% Chester: 0.0% Delaware: -1.1% Burlington: +5.1% New Castle: -0.8% Note: Each county is extruded by its average change in house values during Q3 in order to reflect its growth (or depreciation) rate relative to other counties. Salem: -3.2% Camden: -0.3% Gloucester: -2.8%
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 $250,000 Median Regional House Price v. Indexed Regional House Price: 1980- $200,000 Median Price Indexed Price* $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 *Empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Median House Price by County: 1980- $400,000 New Castle $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Mercer Burlington Camden Gloucester Salem Bucks Chester Delaware Montgomery $150,000 Philadelphia $100,000 $50,000 $0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Median House Price by County, Smoothed*: 1980- $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 New Castle Mercer Burlington Camden Gloucester Salem Bucks Chester Delaware Montgomery Philadelphia $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 *The price data was smoothed by applying a 3-period moving average, in order to eliminate seasonal noise.
Number of Regional House Sales per Quarter: 2005-25,000 20,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Qtly. Average 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
350 300 250 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Number of Regional House Sales 2005- with Price>=$1m 200 Qtly. Average 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Philadelphia Region House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Philadelphia County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Bucks County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Montgomery County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Chester County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Delaware County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
New Castle County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Mercer County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Burlington County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Camden County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Gloucester County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
Salem County House Sales in Q3 Note: the categories for $price/sqft are based upon the quintiles of its distribution. Hence, exactly 20% of all sales fall into each one of the five categories.
+$1 Million Dollar House Sales in Q3
# Houses Listed "For Sale" 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Philadelphia Houses Listed For Sale: Inventory v. Sales Rate # Houses Listed For Sale % Absorbed 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% %Absorbed=(#Sales/#Listings) 0 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2005 2005 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 2002 2002 2002 2001 0.0%
# Homes Listed "For Sale" 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Source: TrendMLS Philadelphia Suburb's Houses Listed For Sale: Inventory v. Sales Rate # Houses Listed For Sale % Absorbed 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% %Sold = (#Sales/#Listings) 10,000 5,000 10% 0 0%
2004 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 180 Average Days-on-Market* for Home Sales 160 DOM-Region DOM-City 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 *DOM is the average "days-on-market": the average number of days it takes for a listed home to sell. In a a market that is evenly balanced between buyers and sellers, 50-70 days is considered the typical norm (source: Redfin). This number is not available separately for Philadelphia's suburbs, but the regional DOM can be considered more representative of the suburbs. 0
2001 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 20.0 18.0 16.0 Months Supply of Inventory in Philadelphia Months Supply of Inventory measures how many months it would take to completely burn off the existing inventory of homes currently listed for sale, given their current pace of sales. 5-7 months is considered a normal, balanced market. More than 7 months indicates a Buyer's market, and less than 5 months indicates a Seller's market. 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 Buyer's Market 6.0 Balanced Market 4.0 Seller's Market 2.0 0.0
12.0 10.0 Months Supply of Inventory in Philadelphia Suburbs Months Supply of Inventory measures how many months it would take to completely burn off the existing inventory of homes currently listed for sale, given their current pace of sales. 5-7 months is considered a normal, balanced market. More than 7 months indicates a Buyer's market, and less than 5 months indicates a Seller's market. 8.0 Buyer's Market 6.0 Balanced Market Seller's Market 4.0 2.0 0.0
Pennsylvania Foreclosure Rates 1 out of every 1,173 homes in Philadelphia is currently in the process of foreclosure, which is down slightly from 1 out of every 1,105 homes in the previous quarter. In the entire Commonwealth, 1 out of every 2,009 homes in Pennsylvania is in the process of foreclosure, which is also down slightly from 1 out of every 1,988 homes in the previous quarter. Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/pa
New Jersey Foreclosure Rates Although South Jersey s foreclosure rate continues to remain the highest in the region, there was some improvement this quarter. Previously, four of the five counties in New Jersey with the highest foreclosure rates were in South Jersey, with an average foreclosure rate of 1 in every 393 homes. Camden and Atlantic Counties are no longer in this grouping, although Burlington County now is. Currently, the average foreclosure rate is 1 in every 389 homes in South Jersey, which is still well above the state s average of 1 in every 753 homes. Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/nj
Delaware Foreclosure Rates Sussex County passed Kent County to take the lead as the Delaware jurisdiction with the highest foreclosure rate this quarter. The foreclosure rate for New Castle County declined significantly in Q3, from 1 in every 691 homes to 1 in every 882. Kent County s foreclosure rate also fell dramatically, from 1 in every 694 homes to 1 in every 1,030. Source: http://www.realtytrac.com/statsandtrends/foreclosuretrends/de But, Sussex County s foreclosure rate increased substantially, from 1 in every 1,427 homes to 1 in every 881.
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2019 600.0 500.0 Philadelphia Region House Price Index: Actual v. Forecast Phila. Region HPI Forecast HPI 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 Zillow.com is currently forecasting the Philadelphia region s house prices to rise an average of 7.03% over the course of the next twelve months. Source: http://www.zillow.com/research/