Monitoring sheep breed changes in Britain over 40 years: breed choice responds to economic and political pressures Geoff Pollott Department of Production and Population Health EAAP 65 th Annual Meeting, Copenhagen
Monitoring sheep breed use in Britain Annual Census data collected in June and December by ministry No information on sheep breeds or matings In 1970, the newly formed Meat and Livestock Commission (MLC) set up study groups to determine technical direction of improvement programmes in each meat species No comprehensive information was available on sheep breeds in Britain initiated 1 st postal survey at mating 1971 Subsequent surveys carried out in 1987,1996, 2003 and 2012
The last 40 years in context Total sheep numbers in Britain June census Millions 45 40 35 30 25 England Wales England & Wales Scotland Britain 30 breeds 60 breeds 75 breeds 106 breeds 20 15 10 5 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Economic/political changes last 40 years New markets EU, Asia Less competition New Zealand Subsidies from EU increase followed by decrease Foot and mouth disease Consumer pressure less fat larger cuts of meat Profitability of sheep and competing enterprises
Demographic changes breeding ewes 20 Ewes mated (Millions) 19 18 Number (millions) 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Britain - Source: Defra December census
A structure of two halves % split between the two structures 1971 1987 1996 2003 2012 86 78 77 71 56 14 22 23 29 44 2012 numbers with 2003 numbers in parentheses
Traditional crossbreeding structure Hill ewe numbers decreasing Lw = Longwool crossing breeds e.g. Bluefaced Leicester TS = Terminal Sire breeds e.g. Suffolk 2012 numbers with 2003 numbers in parentheses Traditional crossbred types decreasing
A growing structure TS = Terminal Sire breeds e.g. Suffolk 2012 numbers with 2003 numbers in parentheses Ad hoc crossbreds increasing
Changing hill breed numbers Millions 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 Hill ewes as a proportion of all ewes declined from 57% in 1971 to 31% in 2012 Scottish Blackface All Cheviots Swaledale Dalesbred Roughfell Herdwick Exmoor Horn Welsh Mountain Hardy Specklefaced Beulah 1 0.5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Disappearing purebreds? (000) 1971 1987 1996 2003 2012 Border Leicester 12 28 13 5 4 Romney Marsh 294 217 159 165 201 Devon Closewool 127 51 6 7 4 Devon and Cornwall Longwool 290 28 4 2 2 Whitefaced Dartmoor 39 1 6 5 4 Greyfaced Dartmoor 33 4 3 4 4 Clun Forest 401 124 44 12 10 Dorset Horn 59 124 17 12 11 Kerryhill 209 47 2 13 10 Llanwenog 20 3 10 6 7 Total 1,492 646 273 247 273
The rise of the crossbred Percentage of ewes 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Purebred Crossbred 10 0 1971 1987 1996 2003 2012 Britain - Source: MLC/Defra/EBLEX Sheep Breed Surveys
Changes in traditional crossbred types (000) 1971 1987 1996 2003 2012 North Country Mule 311 3,233 3,809 1,915 2,094 Welsh Mule 370 631 738 330 Scots Mule 502 263 610 231 Greyface 214 332 156 212 90 Welsh Halfbred (HB) 304 410 250 130 28 Scottish Halfbred 590 346 162 100 19 Masham 406 249 162 56 32 Suffolk x Mule/HB type 550 603 495 590 622 Texel x Mule/HB type 0 32 220 307 862 Suffolk x Hill 154 182 115 81 154 Texel x Hill 0 25 28 92 76 Total 2,529 6,284 6,291 4,831 4,538
Overall breed number changes in 40 years Year UK Imported Newly imported Lost imported Compo sites New comp osites Lost compo sites Total 1971 ~50 1 1 ~52 1987 58 1 8 0 1 5 0 73 1996 58 7 6 2 4 0 2 75 2003 58 13 10 0 4 3 0 88 2012 59 18 20 5 5 4 2 106 44 12 44 breeds imported over 40 years - 7 not found in 2012 ~ 545,000 ewes of imported breeds found in 2012 ~ 20% of all non-hill ewes
The rise of the Texel ewe Estimated purebred Texel ewe numbers Texel not found in 1971 survey Thousands 2,000 1,800 1,600 In 1973, 1,400 thirteen Lanarkshire sheep breeders joined forces 1,200with ABRO to import twenty seven Texel females 1,000 and thirteen rams from France. 800 600 400 200 Estimated crossbred Texel ewe numbers 0 1971 1987 1996 2003 2012
Terminal sire purebred ewe numbers Thousands 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Suffolk Texel Charollais 1971 1987 1996 2003 2012
A move towards more efficient sheep? Thousands 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Lleyn 1971 1987 1996 70 2003 Bluefaced 2012 Leicester 60 Charollais 50 Thousands 40 30 20 10 0 1971 1987 1996 2003 2012
Conclusions and discussion points Stratified crossbreeding structure still found Balance shifting towards crossbreds Many ad hoc crossbreds New breeds and composites still appearing Breeds with real traits to offer find a place
Acknowledgements English Beef and Lamb Executive for funding and carrying out 2012 Sheep Breed Survey
Demographic changes flocks 90 No. of flocks (000) 85 80 Number (000) 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: BWMB
Demographic changes Average flock size 350 Average flock size 300 Nunber of ewes 250 200 150 100 50 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Distribution of ewes and farms by breeding flock size 54% of ewes are on 13% of farms UK - Source: Defra June census 2012