Page 1 of 12. ISM Survey Report June 2009

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Transcription:

Page 1 of 12 Tons on hand would cover current shipping levels for how many months? 4 5 6 Reporting Period 0-1 mo 1-2 mo 2-3 mo 3-4 mo 4-5 mo 6+ mo June 2008 28.6% 23.8% 28.6% 9.5% 9.5% July 2008 22.2% 38.9% 22.2% 11.1% 5.6% August 2008 11.8% 47.1% 29.4% 5.9% 5.9% September 2008 21.1% 31.6% 31.6% 10.5% 5.3% October 2008 26.3% 31.6% 26.3% 15.8% November 2008 18.8% 50.0% 25.0% 6.2% December 2008 30.8% 30.8% 23.1% 15.4% January 2009 29.4% 29.4% 29.4% 5.9% 5.9% February 2009 25.0% 31.2% 25.0% 12.5% 6.2% March 2009 29.4% 35.3% 23.5% 5.9% 5.9% April 2009 11.1% 44.4% 33.3% 5.6% 5.6% May 2009 21.4% 35.7% 14.3% 28.6% June 2009 35.7% 35.7% 21.4% 7.1% Average 23.7% 35.6% 26.0% 9.6% 4.6%.5% Compared to 12 months ago, tons now on hand are: 4 5 Reporting Period + 20% + 10% Same - 10% - 20% June 2008 9.5% 33.3% 38.1% 19.0% July 2008 16.7% 22.2% 33.3% 27.8% August 2008 11.8% 35.3% 29.4% 23.5% September 2008 10.5% 26.3% 47.4% 15.8% October 2008 5.3% 26.3% 26.3% 42.1% November 2008 6.2% 12.5% 25.0% 43.8% 12.5% December 2008 15.4% 30.8% 15.4% 30.8% 7.7% January 2009 35.3% 23.5% 29.4% 11.8% February 2009 31.2% 18.8% 25.0% 25.0% March 2009 5.9% 35.3% 17.6% 41.2% April 2009 5.6% 16.7% 33.3% 44.4% May 2009 7.1% 14.3% 35.7% 42.9% June 2009 14.3% 14.3% 28.6% 42.9% Average 6.8% 25.6% 22.8% 28.3% 16.4%

Page 2 of 12 How do you consider your inventory levels compared to demand? Reporting Period Too High Right Too Low June 2008 30.0% 65.0% 5.0% July 2008 38.9% 55.6% 5.6% August 2008 70.6% 23.5% 5.9% September 2008 57.9% 42.1% October 2008 57.9% 42.1% November 2008 62.5% 37.5% December 2008 61.5% 38.5% January 2009 52.9% 41.2% 5.9% February 2009 68.8% 25.0% 6.2% March 2009 47.1% 41.2% 11.8% April 2009 61.1% 27.8% 11.1% May 2009 64.3% 28.6% 7.1% June 2009 28.6% 71.4% Average 53.7% 41.7% 4.6% How do current receipts compare with current shipments? Reporting Period Above Same Below June 2008 14.3% 71.4% 14.3% July 2008 35.3% 47.1% 17.6% August 2008 35.3% 41.2% 23.5% September 2008 15.8% 57.9% 26.3% October 2008 15.8% 42.1% 42.1% November 2008 18.8% 43.8% 37.5% December 2008 41.7% 41.7% 16.7% January 2009 5.9% 47.1% 47.1% February 2009 25.0% 37.5% 37.5% March 2009 11.8% 47.1% 41.2% April 2009 41.2% 58.8% May 2009 14.3% 42.9% 42.9% June 2009 85.7% 14.3% Average 17.6% 50.0% 32.4%

Page 3 of 12 Compared to current receipts, receipts for the next 3 months should be: Reporting Period Greater Same Less June 2008 14.3% 42.9% 42.9% July 2008 11.8% 23.5% 64.7% August 2008 5.9% 17.6% 76.5% September 2008 5.3% 21.1% 73.7% October 2008 5.3% 26.3% 68.4% November 2008 43.8% 56.2% December 2008 25.0% 8.3% 66.7% January 2009 11.8% 29.4% 58.8% February 2009 43.8% 56.2% March 2009 5.9% 47.1% 47.1% April 2009 16.7% 50.0% 33.3% May 2009 21.4% 28.6% 50.0% June 2009 57.1% 28.6% 14.3% Average 12.9% 32.3% 54.8% What will you attempt to do to inventory levels for the next 6 months? Reporting Period Increase Maintain Decrease June 2008 9.5% 38.1% 52.4% July 2008 5.6% 38.9% 55.6% August 2008 23.5% 76.5% September 2008 42.1% 57.9% October 2008 21.1% 78.9% November 2008 6.2% 25.0% 68.8% December 2008 38.5% 61.5% January 2009 5.9% 23.5% 70.6% February 2009 25.0% 75.0% March 2009 29.4% 70.6% April 2009 11.1% 27.8% 61.1% May 2009 7.1% 21.4% 71.4% June 2009 71.4% 28.6% Average 3.7% 32.4% 63.9%

Page 4 of 12 How do incoming order levels compare to levels needed for your most efficient level of operation? Reporting Period Above Right Below June 2008 10.0% 35.0% 55.0% July 2008 11.1% 33.3% 55.6% August 2008 11.8% 23.5% 64.7% September 2008 10.5% 36.8% 52.6% October 2008 31.6% 68.4% November 2008 12.5% 12.5% 75.0% December 2008 7.7% 7.7% 84.6% January 2009 5.9% 11.8% 82.4% February 2009 6.2% 93.8% March 2009 11.8% 88.2% April 2009 5.9% 94.1% May 2009 7.1% 7.1% 85.7% June 2009 21.4% 78.6% Average 6.5% 19.4% 74.2% What do you think will happen to your backlog over the next 3 months? Reporting Period Increase Same Decrease June 2008 15.0% 35.0% 50.0% July 2008 11.1% 33.3% 55.6% August 2008 12.5% 31.2% 56.2% September 2008 10.5% 21.1% 68.4% October 2008 10.5% 26.3% 63.2% November 2008 33.3% 66.7% December 2008 16.7% 16.7% 66.7% January 2009 12.5% 37.5% 50.0% February 2009 13.3% 20.0% 66.7% March 2009 18.8% 37.5% 43.8% April 2009 23.5% 41.2% 35.3% May 2009 23.1% 46.2% 30.8% June 2009 23.1% 69.2% 7.7% Average 14.4% 34.0% 51.7%

Page 5 of 12 What do you expect the trend to be in your incoming orders for the next 3 months? Reporting Period Up Same Down June 2008 23.8% 33.3% 42.9% July 2008 22.2% 27.8% 50.0% August 2008 17.6% 41.2% 41.2% September 2008 10.5% 26.3% 63.2% October 2008 10.5% 10.5% 78.9% November 2008 12.5% 18.8% 68.8% December 2008 7.7% 7.7% 84.6% January 2009 11.8% 29.4% 58.8% February 2009 25.0% 31.2% 43.8% March 2009 17.6% 47.1% 35.3% April 2009 41.2% 29.4% 29.4% May 2009 28.6% 50.0% 21.4% June 2009 42.9% 50.0% 7.1% Average 20.6% 30.7% 48.6% How do present operating levels compare with your most efficient levels of operation? Reporting Period Above Right Below June 2008 19.0% 33.3% 47.6% July 2008 5.6% 44.4% 50.0% August 2008 5.9% 35.3% 58.8% September 2008 5.3% 42.1% 52.6% October 2008 5.3% 26.3% 68.4% November 2008 6.2% 12.5% 81.2% December 2008 7.7% 7.7% 84.6% January 2009 5.9% 5.9% 88.2% February 2009 6.2% 6.2% 87.5% March 2009 5.9% 5.9% 88.2% April 2009 5.9% 5.9% 88.2% May 2009 7.1% 92.9% June 2009 7.1% 92.9% Average 7.3% 18.8% 73.9%

Page 6 of 12 Compared to 3 months ago, current shipping levels are: Reporting Period Above Same Below June 2008 19.0% 47.6% 33.3% July 2008 22.2% 27.8% 50.0% August 2008 11.8% 41.2% 47.1% September 2008 10.5% 21.1% 68.4% October 2008 10.5% 21.1% 68.4% November 2008 12.5% 12.5% 75.0% December 2008 7.7% 92.3% January 2009 5.9% 11.8% 82.4% February 2009 6.2% 93.8% March 2009 23.5% 23.5% 52.9% April 2009 38.9% 16.7% 44.4% May 2009 50.0% 14.3% 35.7% June 2009 50.0% 35.7% 14.3% Average 20.1% 21.9% 58.0% Compared to 12 months ago, current shipping levels are: Reporting Period Above Same Below June 2008 19.0% 33.3% 47.6% July 2008 27.8% 27.8% 44.4% August 2008 11.8% 41.2% 47.1% September 2008 5.3% 26.3% 68.4% October 2008 5.3% 21.1% 73.7% November 2008 6.2% 6.2% 87.5% December 2008 7.7% 92.3% January 2009 5.9% 11.8% 82.4% February 2009 6.2% 93.8% March 2009 5.9% 94.1% April 2009 5.6% 94.4% May 2009 7.1% 92.9% June 2009 7.1% 92.9% Average 9.6% 14.2% 76.3%

Page 7 of 12 Selling prices for our products are: 4 Reporting Period Firm Competitive Weak Very Weak June 2008 19.0% 57.1% 14.3% 9.5% July 2008 5.6% 66.7% 16.7% 11.1% August 2008 70.6% 11.8% 17.6% September 2008 5.3% 52.6% 36.8% 5.3% October 2008 57.9% 26.3% 15.8% November 2008 56.2% 18.8% 25.0% December 2008 53.8% 23.1% 23.1% January 2009 41.2% 41.2% 17.6% February 2009 31.2% 50.0% 18.8% March 2009 5.9% 47.1% 29.4% 17.6% April 2009 38.9% 33.3% 27.8% May 2009 57.1% 14.3% 28.6% June 2009 7.1% 64.3% 14.3% 14.3% Average 3.7% 53.4% 25.6% 17.4% Compared to 3 months ago, how promptly are customers paying you? Reporting Period More Same Less June 2008 5.0% 85.0% 10.0% July 2008 88.9% 11.1% August 2008 94.1% 5.9% September 2008 83.3% 16.7% October 2008 73.7% 26.3% November 2008 68.8% 31.2% December 2008 61.5% 38.5% January 2009 58.8% 41.2% February 2009 62.5% 37.5% March 2009 52.9% 47.1% April 2009 50.0% 50.0% May 2009 71.4% 28.6% June 2009 78.6% 21.4% Average.5% 71.9% 27.6%

Page 8 of 12 Is any of your workforce on short time or layoff? 1 2 Reporting Period Yes No June 2008 25.0% 75.0% July 2008 25.0% 75.0% August 2008 37.5% 62.5% September 2008 29.4% 70.6% October 2008 47.4% 52.6% November 2008 53.3% 46.7% December 2008 63.6% 36.4% January 2009 81.2% 18.8% February 2009 86.7% 13.3% March 2009 93.8% 6.2% April 2009 88.2% 11.8% May 2009 85.7% 14.3% June 2009 78.6% 21.4% Average 59.7% 40.3% Are you hiring new people or do you plan to? 1 2 Reporting Period Yes No June 2008 30.0% 70.0% July 2008 35.3% 64.7% August 2008 18.8% 81.2% September 2008 33.3% 66.7% October 2008 15.8% 84.2% November 2008 12.5% 87.5% December 2008 100.0% January 2009 6.2% 93.8% February 2009 6.7% 93.3% March 2009 6.2% 93.8% April 2009 6.7% 93.3% May 2009 15.4% 84.6% June 2009 7.7% 92.3% Average 16.1% 83.9%

Page 9 of 12 Do you plan to build or buy new manufacturing facilities within the next year? 1 2 Reporting Period Yes No June 2008 5.6% 94.4% July 2008 6.7% 93.3% August 2008 13.3% 86.7% September 2008 17.6% 82.4% October 2008 12.5% 87.5% November 2008 6.7% 93.3% December 2008 18.2% 81.8% January 2009 20.0% 80.0% February 2009 20.0% 80.0% March 2009 13.3% 86.7% April 2009 12.5% 87.5% May 2009 7.7% 92.3% June 2009 100.0% Average 11.9% 88.1% The trend of general economic activity for the next 6 months is expected to be: Reporting Period Up Same Down June 2008 14.3% 42.9% 42.9% July 2008 23.5% 76.5% August 2008 17.6% 29.4% 52.9% September 2008 31.6% 68.4% October 2008 15.8% 84.2% November 2008 6.2% 93.8% December 2008 100.0% January 2009 11.8% 23.5% 64.7% February 2009 18.8% 25.0% 56.2% March 2009 11.8% 41.2% 47.1% April 2009 27.8% 38.9% 33.3% May 2009 42.9% 42.9% 14.3% June 2009 42.9% 57.1% Average 13.8% 29.4% 56.9%

Page 10 of 12 The trend of sales and production in my industry for the next 6 months is expected to be: Reporting Period Up Same Down June 2008 28.6% 38.1% 33.3% July 2008 11.1% 33.3% 55.6% August 2008 17.6% 35.3% 47.1% September 2008 5.3% 36.8% 57.9% October 2008 5.3% 15.8% 78.9% November 2008 6.2% 6.2% 87.5% December 2008 7.7% 92.3% January 2009 17.6% 29.4% 52.9% February 2009 18.8% 25.0% 56.2% March 2009 11.8% 47.1% 41.2% April 2009 27.8% 44.4% 27.8% May 2009 21.4% 64.3% 14.3% June 2009 50.0% 50.0% Average 17.4% 32.9% 49.8% At present production rates and with no new orders, how long would your current order book last? 4 Reporting Period 1-2 mo 2-4 mo 4-6 mo 6+ mo June 2008 44.4% 22.2% 27.8% 5.6% July 2008 64.7% 23.5% 11.8% August 2008 73.3% 20.0% 6.7% September 2008 64.7% 23.5% 5.9% 5.9% October 2008 61.1% 27.8% 11.1% November 2008 66.7% 26.7% 6.7% December 2008 75.0% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% January 2009 60.0% 26.7% 6.7% 6.7% February 2009 64.3% 21.4% 7.1% 7.1% March 2009 80.0% 13.3% 6.7% April 2009 66.7% 26.7% 6.7% May 2009 66.7% 25.0% 8.3% June 2009 69.2% 23.1% 7.7% Average 65.3% 22.4% 4.6% 7.7%

Page 11 of 12 Compared to your past practice, what will be your dependence for the next 6 months on off-shore sources? Reporting Period Greater Same Less June 2008 5.0% 70.0% 25.0% July 2008 6.2% 75.0% 18.8% August 2008 6.2% 68.8% 25.0% September 2008 16.7% 61.1% 22.2% October 2008 16.7% 61.1% 22.2% November 2008 20.0% 60.0% 20.0% December 2008 16.7% 50.0% 33.3% January 2009 12.5% 56.2% 31.2% February 2009 21.4% 71.4% 7.1% March 2009 14.3% 64.3% 21.4% April 2009 60.0% 40.0% May 2009 54.5% 45.5% June 2009 8.3% 75.0% 16.7% Average 11.2% 64.0% 24.9% Are foreign mill offering prices significantly different from domestic levels? 4 5 Reporting Period Well Above Above No Below Well Below June 2008 33.3% 57.1% 9.5% July 2008 5.6% 33.3% 44.4% 16.7% August 2008 23.5% 76.5% September 2008 5.3% 5.3% 68.4% 10.5% 10.5% October 2008 11.8% 52.9% 29.4% 5.9% November 2008 6.2% 75.0% 18.8% December 2008 58.3% 41.7% January 2009 18.8% 56.2% 25.0% February 2009 64.3% 35.7% March 2009 7.7% 76.9% 15.4% April 2009 6.7% 73.3% 20.0% May 2009 25.0% 75.0% June 2009 33.3% 50.0% 16.7% Average 1.5% 15.8% 63.4% 17.8% 1.5%

Page 12 of 12 Compared to 3 months ago, how active are foreign mills in seeking U.S. business? Reporting Period More Same Less June 2008 17.6% 64.7% 17.6% July 2008 20.0% 60.0% 20.0% August 2008 26.7% 53.3% 20.0% September 2008 41.2% 58.8% October 2008 43.8% 43.8% 12.5% November 2008 57.1% 42.9% December 2008 50.0% 41.7% 8.3% January 2009 37.5% 43.8% 18.8% February 2009 42.9% 50.0% 7.1% March 2009 21.4% 64.3% 14.3% April 2009 21.4% 57.1% 21.4% May 2009 9.1% 72.7% 18.2% June 2009 8.3% 75.0% 16.7% Average 31.0% 55.6% 13.4% At this time, how aggressive are foreign mills in seeking U.S. business? 4 Reporting Period Very Normal Sub-Normal No Interest June 2008 9.5% 38.1% 28.6% 23.8% July 2008 5.6% 38.9% 27.8% 27.8% August 2008 5.9% 35.3% 47.1% 11.8% September 2008 15.8% 36.8% 42.1% 5.3% October 2008 15.8% 47.4% 15.8% 21.1% November 2008 12.5% 50.0% 31.2% 6.2% December 2008 16.7% 58.3% 25.0% January 2009 11.8% 35.3% 47.1% 5.9% February 2009 6.7% 60.0% 20.0% 13.3% March 2009 14.3% 42.9% 28.6% 14.3% April 2009 13.3% 46.7% 26.7% 13.3% May 2009 66.7% 25.0% 8.3% June 2009 30.8% 53.8% 15.4% Average 10.1% 44.2% 32.2% 13.5%