californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Sunday, November 4, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Californiawinning.com accurately called ten winners in the twelve Breeders Cup races yesterday, and seven of eleven races here (toot toot). Any better and I should put up a sign outside, Roger s Readings, or should be hired by the CIA for remote viewing and other psychic warfare. Yet there were no congratulations, not a single one (lol). Believe it or not, some subscribers complained about the chalkishness of the winners. Well, I don t set the odds, but I do believe I could do a better job at that than most. Others liked my condensed format yesterday, due to computer issues, and said they prefer it to the norm. What, and miss my beautiful prose including iambic pentameter? Actually, the writing of the prose as it were helps me confirm my thoughts as I am writing, and often occasions changes to my predictions. Anyway the good news is that you ladies and gents do give me lots of humorous moments I wouldn t trade any of you, even my erstwhile detractors Today Here It is closeout day and there is a huge Pick 6 mandatory payout in the works. All of our top riders are back from Churchill Downs, so we might not see a recurrence of Friday s clear closeout communism. Also, an invader is here for the stakes races and others- the talented Joel Rosario. ON TO DEL MAR- NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE VETERANS DAY HOLIDAY WE MURDER DEL MAR AND DON T FORGET IT! Have a winsome race day
Note: The first post time today is 11:00 am PT, 2:00 pm ET. today s picks would be out later than usual I knew early this week that Sunday, November 4, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard californiawinning.com, Graded Selections.as follows Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will
receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. RACE 1: Four entries have raced on turf, none has hit the board at race distance ( RD ) Thin Line secures substantial class relief, is trained by one of the best, and carries our winningest apprentice, he of the continuing five pound weight allowance, much like getting a head start in the race. The ML favorite is Tanker, who drops precipitously and propitiously out of MSW, the well-rested gelding almost hit the board last time out on the grass at RD. Well-rested Carbon Zero likewise drops sharply out of MSW, although he is new to the turf, he did hit the board at RD last time out, and today he carries turf master Desormeaux, back from Churchill Downs already. RACE 2:
Odyssey Explorer, rested for the first time since he began his career, hit the board in two of three efforts at RD, he shows spirited works and upgrades his jockey today. Blaze of Glory drops sharply out of MSW, he hit the board in a dirt route the last time he raced on the main track, connections are good and he comes off a terrific five-furlong workout @ 1:00 1, the rest is somewhat short but he seems to be ok with that based on PP s. Rak City gets class relief, placed in his sole dirt route, and shows a series of competent workouts. RACE 3: Princess Kendra is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s)/computer as the narrow ML favorite, as the mare is top 2018 earner, and she has hit the board in her last four efforts on the main track, including a place effort at RD last September, and by the way she is quite accustomed to racing on short rest as it the case here. Ipray has raced her last eight races precisely at RD, and she won twice and hit the board six other times, look for her to battle. Lucky Student hits the board in the vast majority of her races, almost all dirt sprints, he has won a heady four eleven races this year, and hence is second in 2018 earnings, he is extremely steady speedwise and has lineage favorable for the route. RACE 4: ($200,000) THE GOLDIKOVA, GRADE II, ONE MILE, TURF COURSE Rested Vasilika is the prohibitive ML favorite, in large measure because she comes off two graded stakes turf route wins, with this top-tier jockey aboard, who has been the filly s rider for the last eight months, she is trained by one of the best and just won an amazing seven turf routes in a row, she has won six of fifteen at RD an astounding six of seven races here, all factors point towards an eighth consecutive race today. Fahan Mura has won an even more impressive seven of thirteen races at RD, and, like Vasilika, she wins just about half of her turf races, always of the route variety, and she has won all five of her races here, her rider knows her very well too and she will not go down without a fight. Rested Lull hit the board in
fourteen of sixteen turf races, largely routes, and she wins a very respectable third of her turf races, I don t believe she can win this race but she will be in the hunt, especially with Rosario aboard. RACE 5: Rested Mayan Warrior is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s)/computer as the narrow ML favorite, as the colt gets some class relief, has hit the board in two of three dirt sprints, has great connections, including our winningest apprentice who still benefits from a five-pound weight allowance (like getting a head start here in what is a very short race), five days ago he worked four furlongs at an incredible 45 1 which portends good things today on race day. Diamond Blitz is a first-time starter who sports a series of very strong works, including six furlongs at a bullet 1:13 2 just a couple of weeks ago, he will apparently be ready to rock and roll in her debut. Violent Behavior is one of two entries making the deep class drop out of MSW (see also Mr. Bingley), the roan has shown little on the track as of yet, and could be a morning glory, but his string of works is decent and he carries one of our top jockeys once again. Likeable Longshot: Mr. Bingley (ML 20/1) is worthy of a few Washingtons, as noted he drops out of MSW, and his 2018 earnings dwarf all others except for AE Calder Vale, he hit the board a couple of times at RD and should supplant a Bud Light dilly dilly RACE 6: My Man Chuckles, top earner this year in this field, carries Rosario, has won three of seven races at RD, where his only grass wins arise, and that October 27 workout of five furlongs @ 59 4 is telling me something as well. Perfectly Majestic benefits from class relief, hits the board in over 75% of his grass races, and sports enviable connections, what with one of our top three jockeys aboard. Tiz a Billy is the narrow ML favorite, in large measure because he has won four of eight grass races at RD, representing his only lifetime wins too, his string of short works is excellent and he should be a part of the ensuing trifecta.
Likeable Longshot: Take a gander at K Thirty Eight (ML 20/1)---the elder gelding still has speed (witness the six furlong workout at 1:13 4 here just a couple of weeks ago), he gets come class relief and posted a win here at RD in the summer of 2017, he carries the talented apprentice with great lineage who still sports a five-pound weight allowance (collectively, the Espinoza parallax ), much like getting a head start in this short race. RACE 7: Powerful Thirst, one of two entries to have hit the board at RD (see also For the Hustle) is very steady speed-wise at or near RD, he will make his presence known in this bland field. Very well-rested Pastorelli gets a notch of class relief, shows decent workouts and upgrades his rider to Rosario. For the Hustle is the ML favorite, largely on the strength of his string of exceptional workouts, like last Tuesday s effort here, five furlongs at a bullet 100 1, and the two bullet efforts just prior to that were even better, he is the top earner in this pedestrian field too. RACE 8: THE TWILIGHT DERBY, GRADE II, ONE AND ONE EIGHTH MILES, TURF COURSE The ML favorite is well-rested River Boyne, a fine Irish las born and bred on the lush county green (County Wexford), thus preternaturally suited for turf racing, he has won a heady five of nine turf races, two wins coming at Rd and all wins coming in routes, he is well rested and has won a graded race(one of three entries who can make that claim, see also Platinum Warrior and Have At It), last August. Very well-rested Platinum Warrior is yet another fine Irish lad (County Tipperary), he won a graded route back home at RD plus 660 feet, carries one of our top three riders and will be in the hunt. Very well-rested Prince Earl won both of his turf races, including a sprint here, his works are strong albeit on the main track, he upgrades his jockey today and cannot be ignored. Likeable Longshot: You don t often find Mike Smith aboard a colt with an 8/1 ML, but Majestic Eagle is that, even though he has won two of four races at RD and hit the board in the other two, he has raced five times here and won once
and placed four times, the colt has never missed the board in a turf race, I just wonder if he will actually go off at the likes of 8/1 (I told you, I should be the odds maker!) dilly dilly RACE 9: Longden is trained by a legend as much as a man, a legend who produced two Breeders Cup wins on Friday with Improbable and Game Winner, but was surprisingly shut out in yesterday s Breeders Cup races, with both McKinzie and West Coast (with Mike Stakes aboard!) finishing well out of the money in the Breeders Cup Classic, he won here at RD plus 330 feet last March, works are transcendent and he gets a new rider. Surfing Star, the ML favorite, is such because he just posted a comfortable win here at RD, 21 days ago, works are very strong and he did place off seventeen days rest, but can he win? Very well-rested Kylemore won and placed in two grass efforts at RD, and comes off a main track win at RD, I am just not sure he is the same horse he was in March of this year RACE 10: There is certainly not a single turf horse in this grouping, and only seven entries have ever raced on grass at least their sole efforts have been at RD, with Weekly Call and Kinght s Cross having hit the board at such) Neptune s Storm is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s)/computer as the ML favorite, as he has a top trainer and benefits once again from the Espinoza parallax, plus her races for the first time after the ultimate equipment change, as he is now a gelding. Knight s Cross hit the board in one of three efforts at RD, he has enviable connections and will vie. Spekaerofthehouse showed nothing in his effort at RD, but in fairness he suffered a terrible start, his works are decent and he has pretty good connections, he is good enough to show up. californinawinning.com (all rights reserved) Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you.
Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?