californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Sunday, November 4, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Californiawinning.com accurately called ten winners in the twelve Breeders Cup races yesterday, and seven of eleven races here (toot toot). Any better and I should put up a sign outside, Roger s Readings, or should be hired by the CIA for remote viewing and other psychic warfare. Yet there were no congratulations, not a single one (lol). Believe it or not, some subscribers complained about the chalkishness of the winners. Well, I don t set the odds, but I do believe I could do a better job at that than most. Others liked my condensed format yesterday, due to computer issues, and said they prefer it to the norm. What, and miss my beautiful prose including iambic pentameter? Actually, the writing of the prose as it were helps me confirm my thoughts as I am writing, and often occasions changes to my predictions. Anyway the good news is that you ladies and gents do give me lots of humorous moments I wouldn t trade any of you, even my erstwhile detractors Today Here It is closeout day and there is a huge Pick 6 mandatory payout in the works. All of our top riders are back from Churchill Downs, so we might not see a recurrence of Friday s clear closeout communism. Also, an invader is here for the stakes races and others- the talented Joel Rosario. ON TO DEL MAR- NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE VETERANS DAY HOLIDAY WE MURDER DEL MAR AND DON T FORGET IT!
Have a winsome race day Horsecallany It is said by the horse whisperers that horses probably do not recognize their name, as dogs do. However, they can routinely be trained to come when called, and that is likely a product of the fact they do recognize familiar faces and voices. SPECIAL PROJECTS (reprised, new pricing) I have decided to reduce my price for any special project to a mere $15. That means ff any of you happens to be going to, or wagering on, a track other than our home tracks--- Del Mar, Los Alamitos (briefly) and Santa Anita--- and you want me to handicap that day s races at the foreign track, if you give me a few days notice I may, depending on my personal schedule, be able to handicap that track for you. The Anatomy of a Likeable Longshot - Soi Phet I was asked what made you select Soi Phet as a Likeable Longshot? As you know, that horse was my Likeable Longshot in the 9 th race on the 20 th of May and he paid $ 96.40 for a two dollar bet that Sunday. First, I have a good wagering history with him (he has earned me money). He was moving down precipitously out of graded competition. His string of workouts was impressive still for a ten year old horse. He closes out well. And, his average Beyer rating for races from 2017 to the present (I don t go too far back in the PP s, recent is most relevant as a horse can decline fast, like an NFL running back) was terrific: 90. Frankly, looking at all of that, I don t know what the odds maker/computer was thinking: he was a serious overlay. Thank you odds maker!!!
Horsecellany II--- Some Basic Horsie Math/Statistics Keep in mind that each discrete horse race on a race card is an independent event, in that the winner of one race has no tangible effect on the winner of another race. (For this reason, I never state a so-called Best Bet of the day, which makes no sense to me, as we handicappers do not rate a horse in one race against a horse in another.) Given, that, here are the horsie statistics that we need to keep in mind when wagering horizontally. For the purposes of this demonstration, and for simplicity s sake, let us assume there are ten races, and each race has exactly eight entries. The following is the number of possible outcomes for two races up to eight races: Two races- Daily Double= 8 2, 64 Three races- 8 3, 512 Four races- Pick 4= 8 4, 4,096 Five races- Pick 5= 8 5, 32,768 Six races- Pick 6= 8 6, 262,144 (this is why you should never make that bet!) Seven races- 8 7, 2,097,152 Eight races, like californiawinning.com successfully handicapped on Monday: 8 8, 16,777,216 At least two essential, critical points arise out of this exercise. As for the eight races that californiawinning.com correctly predicted the winners of, there were 16,277,216 possible outcomes. Yet, we hit the mark by naming a grand total of 18 horses. Pretty good aim, huh? Next point: now we see how hard it is even to hit either the Pick 4 (4,096 possible outcomes) or Pick 5 (32,768 possible outcomes). Yet, californiawinning.com accurately predicts both the Pick 4 and Pick 5 with some regularity. Sunday, November 4, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course
FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h
For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLWING ARE TODAY S FREE RACE ANALYSES: RACES 7-9 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Likeable Longshots are not available in the free version of californiawinning.com s selections. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! TODAY S FREE RACES: RACES *****RACE 7: Powerful Thirst, one of two entries to have hit the board at RD (see also For the Hustle) is very steady speed-wise at or near RD, he will make his
presence known in this bland field. Very well-rested Pastorelli gets a notch of class relief, shows decent workouts and upgrades his rider to Rosario. For the Hustle is the ML favorite, largely on the strength of his string of exceptional workouts, like last Tuesday s effort here, five furlongs at a bullet 100 1, and the two bullet efforts just prior to that were even better, he is the top earner in this pedestrian field too. RACE 8: THE TWILIGHT DERBY, GRADE II, ONE AND ONE EIGHTH MILES, TURF COURSE The ML favorite is well-rested River Boyne, a fine Irish las born and bred on the lush county green (County Wexford), thus preternaturally suited for turf racing, he has won a heady five of nine turf races, two wins coming at Rd and all wins coming in routes, he is well rested and has won a graded race(one of three entries who can make that claim, see also Platinum Warrior and Have At It), last August. Very well-rested Platinum Warrior is yet another fine Irish lad (County Tipperary), he won a graded route back home at RD plus 660 feet, carries one of our top three riders and will be in the hunt. Very well-rested Prince Earl won both of his turf races, including a sprint here, his works are strong albeit on the main track, he upgrades his jockey today and cannot be ignored. Likeable Longshot: (there is one here and there are several today, but these are not available in this free version of today s selections please see below on how to view the Likeable Longshots and the remaining selections prepared by one of the world s best Southern California thoroughbred handicappers ) RACE 9: Longden is trained by a legend as much as a man, a legend who produced two Breeders Cup wins on Friday with Improbable and Game Winner, but was surprisingly shut out in yesterday s Breeders Cup races, with both McKinzie and West Coast (with Mike Stakes aboard!) finishing well out of the money in the Breeders Cup Classic, he won here at RD plus 330 feet last March, works are transcendent and he gets a new rider. Surfing Star, the ML favorite, is such because he just posted a comfortable win here at RD, 21 days ago, works are very strong and he did place off seventeen days rest,
but can he win? Very well-rested Kylemore won and placed in two grass efforts at RD, and comes off a main track win at RD, I am just not sure he is the same horse he was in March of this year ***** californiawinning.com (all rights reserved) To see the entire analysis of today s card---including the allimportant Likeable Longshots --- go to Today s Full Race Card at californiawinning.com and click the $2 button, and use your debit or credit card, or your PayPal account to pay $2, or, if you have a PayPal account, go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment there (it s easier) OR Better yet, why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day far less than what you pay for The DRF or Racing Digest and more informative to boot, since they don t give you a graded handicap, and its less than what the touts charged for their little blue card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay a mere $20 through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR if you have a PayPal account, for an easier oneclick process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment Thanks very much. Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities
(Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?