SATURDAY, JANUARY 11 DERBY COUNTDOWN CLICK AND JUMP TO DESIRED SECTION Sham Stakes Goldencents winning 2013 Sham
Sham Stakes Preview By Dan Illman When the Sham Stakes was contested at nine furlongs between its inception in 2001 and 2010, it was truly a legitimate Kentucky Derby prep. Empire Maker, the 2003 Sham runner-up, placed in the Derby before winning the Belmont Stakes. Giacomo, the upset 2005 Derby winner, began his 3-year-old campaign with a third-place performance in the Sham. Although Colonel John, the 2008 Sham winner, only mustered a sixth-place finish at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, he did prevail in the Mid-Summer Derby, the Travers Stakes, at Saratoga. The Sham was moved back to 1 1/16 miles for the 2011 running and was cut back even more, to the current onemile distance, in 2012. Perhaps it isn t coincidence that the top Sham performers over the last three seasons have eventually proven best at middle-distance races. Two of the last three Sham winners, Tapizar and Goldencents, are perhaps best known for winning the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. Secret Circle, the 2012 runner-up, conquered the Breeders Cup Sprint. This year s Sham features several recent maiden graduates attempting to prove their worth as serious Kentucky Derby prospects. Midnight Hawk, the 8-5 morning-line favorite, won his debut by 6 1/4 lengths over the Betfair Hollywood Park Cushion Track on Dec. 13 despite racing very greenly. Off slowly as the 6-5 favorite, Midnight Hawk soon found himself setting a contested pace while well away from the inside, He took the lead turning for home, but drifted in significantly and hopped back to his left lead approaching the wire. Baffert has removed the blinkers for this, Midnight Hawk s first start around two turns, and the recent bullet workouts indicate that he has retained his sharpness. A half-brother to stakes-winning router Mayor Marv, Midnight Hawk should be forwardly placed under Mike Smith. It is interesting to note that Secret Circle, trained by Baffert, was beaten at odds-on in the Sham under somewhat similar circumstances. Secret Circle had won his previous start, the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, with blinkers but removed for the Sham. Kristo, a $500,000 son of Distorted Humor out of the stakes-winning sprinter Capote s Crown, burned a ton of money in his first two sprints, but won his maiden at 1 1/16 miles in gate-to-wire fashion over a speed-favoring Santa Anita surface on Halloween. Although he did succeed around two turns, Kristo s pedigree is geared more toward shorter distances. His dam, a stakes-winning sprinter, is a half-sister to the crack sprinters Smoke Glacken and Smokey Glacken. Against better competition, it will be interesting to see if Kristo stays the trip. Expect him to be close to the pace under Rafael Bejarano Arizona-bred Top Fortitude has a strong pedigree. His full brother Uh Oh Bango won the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes going long on dirt at Santa Anita, and his dam has thrown three other stakes winners. Dismissed at 8-1 for his debut, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Cushion Track on Nov. 16, Top Fortitude showed some moxie. He wasn t fazed despite racing in and among horses down the backstretch and willingly went after the leaders when given his cue turning for home. Top Fortitude earned the field s best Beyer Speed Figure (92) and must be considered a major threat. I ll Wrap It Up was twice dangled for a claiming tag last year, but he has gradually picked up his game since removing blinkers and stretching out in distance. He gave a professional performance most recently in an off-the-turf maiden special weight at Hollywood Park and would benefit from a contested pace up front. His dam, Sindy With an S, was a Grade 3 winner going short, but I ll Wrap It Up has performed admirably routing. Life Is a Joy is the lone multiple-race winner in this year s Sham. He scored in his first three starts, including the Charlie Palmer Futurity over one mile at Fresno. He was compromised by a stumbling start and a speed- favoring track in his most recent dirt engagement, the Golden State Juvenile on Nov. 1. Ontology bombed in his only previous dirt race, the Grade 1 Forerunner Stakes, but he prompted a very fast pace that afternoon. A recent maiden winner on grass, Ontology needs a career-best performance to threaten for top honors. OTHER NOTABLE 3-YEAR-OLD RACES/TOP CONTENDERS Fair Grounds, race 8, 6 furlongs, allowance: Big Sugar Soda, Kendall s Boy, Be Well, Divine View Gulfstream, race 4, 7 furlongs, maiden special weight: Constitution, Juba, Endowment Manager, Hartford Parx Racing, race 7, 1 mile, allowance: Afleet Accompli, Undertaker, Alex Inc Oaklawn, race 6 (Sunday), 6 furlongs, allowance: Ride On Curlin, Guns Loaded, Quick Dagger, Rivers Run Deep
Sham Stakes Analysis By Dan Illman Kentucky Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 Pace scenario EARLY SPEED: Kristo, Midnight Hawk PACE PRESSERS: Life Is a Joy, Ontology MIDPACK RUNNERS: Top Fortitude CLOSERS: I ll Wrap It Up DRF Formulator facts R. Kory Owens, trainer of Top Fortitude, is 11-29 (38%, $3.06 ROI) over the past five years with horses moving from synthetic to dirt. Bob Baffert, trainer of Midnight Hawk, is 6-14 (43%, $4.65 ROI) over the past five years with 3-year-old last-out maiden winners returning in dirt route graded stakes events. Ontology has the highest second-call Moss Pace Rating (85). He earned that number when pressing quick splits in the Grade 1 Forerunner Stakes, his most recent outing on dirt. Although none of the horses that Top Fortitude defeated in his debut returned to graduate, three of those beaten rivals came back to crack the trifecta next out. Melatonin, second behind Top Fortitude, earned an 84 Beyer Speed Figure in his most recent start. Selections 1. Kristo 2. Top Fortitude 3. Midnight Hawk FIFTH RACE Probable Post 2:30 PST 1 Mile. 3-Year-Olds. Sham (Grade 3). Purse: $100,000 PP HORSE JOCKEY WT. M.L. 6 Midnight Hawk...Smith M E...118...8-5 1 Kristo...Bejarano R...118...2-1 5 Top Fortitude...Stra K...118...2-1 2 I ll Wrap It Up...Baze T C...118...8-1 4 Ontology...Gutierrez Mario...118...8-1 3 Life Is a Joy...Nakatani C S...118...12-1 Blinkers Off: Midnight Hawk I ll Wrap It Up has the fastest come-home time in previous 1 1/16 races (31.36 for maiden win at Hollywood Park on Dec. 7) and looms an upset contender given a contentious pace up front.
Sham Stakes Closer Look By Brian Mulligan KRISTO was a poorly kept secret as he went off at 3-5 in his debut and that same price in his next two starts. Wide at Del Mar to kick off his career, he could have been dead short but finished second, and was 3 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field when second in his Santa Anita debut. Rested for just over a month, he tricked his foes and treated his fans when he stretched out on Halloween and controlled the pace and outcome to win going away at 1 1/16 miles with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure. His connections wanted to keep him on conventional dirt. His sire, Distorted Humor, is known as a sprinter but did win routing. His stakeswinning dam was sprint only but was Grade 3-placed at this mile distance. Just may have a breakout race today. I LL WRAP IT UP is a $35,000 juvenile purchase who ran third, beaten five lengths, in his debut in a maiden $50,000 claimer. After two other defeats, this colt showed vast improvement going long on the turf when second and then graduated on the synthetic at Hollywood coming away late with an 80 Beyer. His sprint-only dam took a Grade 3 and earned $330,959. The lone full sister to race was out of the money in her only start. Runner was boosted when the horse that beat him on Nov. 16 took the $83,050 Eddie Logan next out. He s looking at much faster splits this time. Needs his very best. LIFE IS A JOY showed talent from day one and he won his first three races including a $67,400 stakes at Fresno at this very distance. He had a legit excuse in his local debut when he stumbled but was inching toward the winner late. Hung wide in his most recent start, but he still posted a careerbest 75 Beyer. Out of a two-time winning sprint-only dam, one full brother won twice routing, and top sibling and full brother Life Is a Rock took several routes and earned nearly $180,000. He also was still running at the end of his last race as he got the last furlong in 12.24 seconds. The pace should be hot enough; look for him late if at all. ONTOLOGY has always had the confidence of his connections as he was entered in a stakes as a maiden in his second career start and was beaten only a half-length. He drew the rail in his only start at Santa Anita and may have just hated the inside. This son of Tapit got an ideal threewide trip graduating at a mile on grass on the third day of this meet with a 79 Beyer. His dam took a stakes and earned more than $300,000, and she could win long on dirt. This is her first foal to race. Trainer Simon Callaghan is 0 for 8 the last five years going turf to dirt, but one of his starters was second, beaten a neck, at 30-1 when switching. He rates a longshot glance today. TOP FORTITUDE has rested since winning at first asking sprinting on the synthetic with a 92 Beyer. He seems to have taken to that surface, and his sire, Top Hit, took a Grade 3, was a proven router, and banked nearly $450,000. His dam was third in her best moment but she produced several sixfigure earners including multiple stakes winner, double route winner, and $533,948 earner Ez Dreamer. She also produced local Grade 2 winner, triple route winner, and $691,512-earner Uh Oh Bango. Trainer Kory Owens is 3 for 23 the last five years with sprint to route winners, and six ran second. The blood sure is there for him to excel. MIDNIGHT HAWK broke onto the racing scene in exciting style after breaking a tad slowly, dropping back a length off the lead, and then powering home in the drive to draw off by 6 1/4 lengths with an 84 Beyer. He gets his class from his dam, who won her maiden in a stakes and was Grade 1-placed. Trained by Bob Baffert, who also trained this colt s sire, Midnight Lute, who was a sprinter but was beaten only a nose at Santa Anita in a Grade 2 route. There is no reason this runner will not get this distance, as his half-brother graduated at Santa Anita routing and took a route stakes in Phoenix. The blinkers come off here, and Baffert is 1 for 11 with first-time blinkers off runners in a graded stakes in the last five years, but four others ran in the money. The sizzling drills since the maiden breaker jump off the canvas.
Road to the 2014 Kentucky Derby DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK... WINNER...BEYER...1ST... 2ND... 3RD...4TH Sept. 7... Iroquois... 1 1/16M... Churchill Downs...Cleburne... 69... 10...4... 2...1 Sept. 28... FrontRunner... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita...Bond Holder... 78... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 5... Breeders Futurity... 1 1/16M (S)... Keeneland...We Miss Artie... 70... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 5... Champagne... 1M... Belmont...Havana... 93... 10...4... 2...1 Oct. 6... Grey... 1 1/16M (S)... Woodbine...Ami s Holiday... 80... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 2... BC Juvenile... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita...New Year s Day... 88... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 16... Delta Downs Jackpot... 1 1/16M... Delta Downs...Rise Up... 88... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 30... Remsen... 1 1/8M... Aqueduct...Honor Code... 88... 10...4... 2...1 Nov. 30... Kentucky Jockey Club... 1 1/16M... Churchill Downs...Tapiture... 83... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 4... Jerome... 1 mile 70 yds... Aqueduct...Noble Moon... 85... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 11... Sham... 1M... Santa Anita... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 18... Lecomte... 1M 70 yds... Fair Grounds... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 20... Smarty Jones... 1M... Oaklawn Park... 10...4... 2...1 Jan. 25... Holy Bull... 1 1/16M... Gulfstream... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 1... Withers... 1 1/16M... Aqueduct... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 15... El Camino Real Derby... 1 1/8M (S)... Golden Gate... 10...4... 2...1 Feb. 17... Southwest... 1 1/16M... Oaklawn Park... 10...4... 2...1
Kentucky Derby Championship Series DATE... RACE... DISTANCE...TRACK...1ST... 2ND...3RD...4TH Feb. 22... Risen Star... 1 1/16M... Fair Grounds... 50...20...10...5 Feb. 22... Fountain of Youth... 1 1/16M... Gulfstream... 50...20...10...5 March 1... Gotham... 1 1/16M... Aqueduct... 50...20...10...5 March 8... Tampa Bay Derby... 1 1/16M... Tampa Bay Downs... 50...20...10...5 March 8... San Felipe... 1 1/16M... Santa Anita... 50...20...10...5 March 15... Rebel... 1 1/16M... Oaklawn... 50...20...10...5 March 22... Spiral... 1 1/8M (S)... Turfway... 50...20...10...5 March 23... Sunland Derby... 1 1/8M... Sunland Park... 50...20...10...5 March 29... Florida Derby... 1 1/8M... Gulfstream Park... 100...40...20...10 March 29... UAE Derby... 1 3/16M (S)... Meydan... 100...40...20...10 March 29... Louisiana Derby... 1 1/8M... Fair Grounds... 100...40...20...10 April 5... Wood Memorial... 1 1/8M... Aqueduct... 100...40...20...10 April 5... Santa Anita Derby... 1 1/8M... Santa Anita... 100...40...20...10 April 12... Arkansas Derby... 1 1/8M... Oaklawn Park... 100...40...20...10 April 12... Blue Grass... 1 1/8M (S)... Keeneland... 100...40...20...10 April 19... Lexington... 1 1/16M (S)... Keeneland... 10...4...2...1
Kentucky Derby 2014 Point Standings (through Jan. 8).... NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS EARNINGS 1... Havana... Todd Pletcher... 14... $660,000 2... Honor Code... Shug McGaughey... 14... $340,000 3... Tapiture... Steve Asmussen... 12... $120,738 4... Bond Holder... Doug O Neill... 11... $273,000 5... Rise Up... Tom Amoss... 10... $782,633 6... We Miss Artie... Todd Pletcher... 10... $242,000 7... Noble Moon... Leah Gyarmati... 10... $145,000 8... Ami s Holiday... Josie Carroll... 10... $120,635 9... Cleburne... Dale Romans... 10... $102,044 10... Casiguapo... Mario Morales... 5... $271,050 11... Cairo Prince... Kiaran McLaughlin... 4... $230,000 12... Dance With Fate... Peter Eurton... 4... $110,000 13... Smarty s Echo... Anne Smith... 4... $80,000 14... Classic Giacnroll... Lisa Guerrero... 4... $50,000 15... Laddie Boy... Chuck Peery... 4... $39,719 16... Smart Cover... Dale Romans... 4... $32,918.... NON-RESTRICTED RANK HORSE TRAINER POINTS EARNINGS 17... Big Bazinga... Sandra Dominguez... 4... $29,139 18... Ride On Curlin... William Gowin... 3... $64,387 19... Stong Mandate... D. Wayne Lukas... 2... $382,500 20... Tamarando... Jerry Hollendorfer... 2... $270,000 21... Go Greeley... John Ross... 2... $220,601 22... Rankhasprivleges... Ken McPeek... 2... $100,000 23... Arctic Slope... Ken McPeek... 2... $41,572 24... Wicked Strong... Jimmy Jerkens... 2... $40,000 25... Scotland... Tony Dutrow... 2... $20,000 26... Awesome Sky... Mark Casse... 2... $16,819 27... Can the Man... Bob Baffert... 1... $111,000 28... Roman Unbridled... Chad Cook... 1... $60,000 29... Intense Holiday... Todd Pletcher... 1... $47,500 30... Rum Point... Doug O Neill... 1... $30,250 31... Matuszak... Bill Mott... 1... $12,667 32... Buck Magic... Ben Colebrook... 1... $8,410