Disaster risk reduction in Mongolia Information Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environmental N.Baljinnyam Jaipur, India 216.3.1
Outline Climate regime of Mongolia Present Climate change Climate Extreme /heat wave and cold event/ Desertification and land degradation Natural disasters Reduction actions
Climate regime of Mongolia: o Mongolia has harsh continental climate due to its geographic location in the central Eurasian continent, landlocked; surrounded by high mountain with an average of 1.5km. o Generally climate is dry and cold continental which is consisted of semi arid and desert. o Annual mean temperature varies from 8 to - 1 C. oprecipitation falls from 5 to 5mm in year Annual mean temperature, 1961-199 General circulation Weather, Climate Anticyclone Siberian high Cold, clear and calm Windy, dust storm and dry Polar jet and mid latitude cyclone Warm and rainy Anticyclone Siberian high Cool and dry Temperature, C 2-2 Average Maximum Minimum Precipitation 8 6 4 2 Precipitation, mm Annual precipitation amount, 1961-199 -4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 Month Source: Climate section, IRIMHE
Present climate change: Present change, 194-215 Annual mean temperature including 4 meteo- stations Spatial pattern Summer precipitation, mm Annual precipitation icluding 4 meteo stations Annual mean temperature is increased by 2.1 C (+2.6 C in winter and +1.4 C in summer) Annual precipitation is decreased by 1% (+24% in winter and -7% in summer-) Convective precipitation is getting more dominant /P. Gomboluudev,215/
Climate extreme Anomalies of the country averaged annual (a) frost days (FD), (b) summer days (SU25) over Mongolia, 1961-21. Anomalies are relative to 1971-2 mean values. The red curves are 5-years running means. Source: D.Dulamsuren,214
Desertification of Mongolia Land degradation and desertification in Mongolia for 21 As result of this reasearch it was reported that 77.8 % of total territory by degradation, of which 35.3% was defined as slightly degraded, 6.7% severely degraded and 9.9% extremely degrated.[marcc-214]
Extreme weather events in Mongolia Extreme weather events (EWE) are special type of natural disasters caused by atmospheric phenomena such as windstorms, drought,dzud, heavy rainfall, flood, and heavy snow etc. Extreme weather event Short term Long term Strong wind and storm (>28m/s) Temperature drop (2 C/day) Heavy rainfalls (>3mm/hour) Droughts (>2. Ped s drought index in vegetation growing season) Dzud (Dzud is a Mongolian word indicating harsh winter conditions. In more detail, dzud is defined, biogeophysically, as anomalous climatic and/or land surface ) Hail (>1mm, diameter) etc... Severe windstorm events in 18 April 28
The main climate disasters are drought and zud in terms of pastoral livestock in Mongolia 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Trend of Drought index y =.157x -.4685 R² =.226 S i T σ ( τ ) = ; T P σ P Year of 194-22 S sum : N, R =.54.5 -.5-1 194 1944 1948 1952 1956 196 1964 1968 1972 1976 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212-1.5 Distance from trendline (drought index) 2 1.5 1.5 -.5-1 -1.5-2 194 1944 1948 1952 1956 196 1964 1968 1972 1976 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 Source: L.Natsagdorj, 215 Year 194-22 S sum nor : N, R =.69 Year 194-213 S sum nor : N, R =.52
The main climate disasters are drought and zud in terms of pastoral livestock in Mongolia 1.5 1.5 -.5-1 -1.5-2 -2.5 1.5.5 -.5-1.5 Winter index -1-2 y =.93x -.3622 R² =.722 194 1944 1948 1952 1956 196 1964 1968 1972 1976 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 Distance from trendline (winter index) 1 194 1944 1948 1952 1956 196 1964 1968 1972 1976 198 1984 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 Source: L.Natsagdorj, 215 194-1941 to 29-21, S win, N,R=.57 From194-1941 to 213-214 он, S win, N, R=.55 From194-1941 to29-21 он, S win, N R=.62 From194-1941 to 213-214 он, S win, N R=.56 35 3 y = 2.3254x 2-2.352x + 252.5245 R² =.316 2 15 1 25 y = 1.947x 2-2.2289x + 2.6913 2 R² =.323-2.5-2 -1.5-1 -.5.5 1 1.5-2 -1.5-1 -.5.5 1 1.5 5 35 3 15 1 5
Frequency of all EWE in the last two decades The percentage of type of extreme weather events Source: M.Doljinsuren,214
1 8 6 4 2 The number of Meteorological and 15 81 7 63 56 55 48 43 47 48 5 44 45 48 49 57 31 28 31 16 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 The sever thunderstorm with hail events reported on 4 July 213 in Tushig sum Of Selenge province. During heavy rainfall, 61.3 mm of rain fell within one hour and half. This convective related extreme event caused $25. losses.
Disaster risk reduction Our organization has taken the following action to reduce the risk of natural disasters: Forecasting disaster events Warning alert Early warning system Weather Modification Climate project and research
Weather Modification Services Weather Modification Center Khuryn Shim was established in 1991. Purposes: to protect agricultural crops from hail, to increase precipitation amount, to distinguish forest and steppe fire, to support environmental conditions as weather modification. Weather modification expedition: 35, Land generator: 1+6
Mongolian institutions take part to the preparation of winter, and to the dissemination of early warning messages Structure of Early Warning Drought Pasture carrying capacity Prediction of possible dzud Field of livestock (as assigning amounts of hay/fodder to be prepared by local authorities) In case of a forthcoming dzud, NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency): Responsible for the dissemination of early warning messages
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