Developing Regional Solutions In Southeast Michigan Presentation to Metropolitan Detroit Medical Library Group March 15, 2018
Membership Map 171 Total Members Including education members: Livingston Educational Service Agency Macomb Community College Macomb Intermediate School District Monroe County Community College Monroe County Intermediate School District Oakland Schools Schoolcraft College Washtenaw Community College Washtenaw Intermediate School District Wayne County Community College District Wayne County Regional Education Service Agency
Population History Southeast Michigan, 1900-2010 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,181,354 4,736,008 4,682,726 4,590,468 4,833,368 4,704,809 4,000,000 3,344,793 3,000,000 2,613,844 2,382,195 2,000,000 1,467,964 1,000,000 761,481 582,236 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population Will Grow Modestly Southeast Michigan, 1990-2045 5,400,000 5,200,000 Return to 2001 peak 2045 5,104,936 5,000,000 4,800,000 4,600,000 4,400,000 1990 4,593,741 2001 4,849,108 2011 4,699,681 2017 4,739,727 2027 4,851,089 4,200,000 4,000,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Components of Population Change International Birth Death Migration Domestic
Population Change by Component Southeast Michigan, 2015-2016 = 1,000 Persons Birth: 54,604 Death: 44,408 Natural Growth: 10,196 Immigration: 14,822 Domestic Migration: -20,186 Net Migration: -5,364 Residuals: -1,073 Total Change: 3,759 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Change of Population Components Annual Average, Southeast Michigan 40,000 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2045 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 - + = - + + = = - - + = - + = - + = 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Natural increase (births deaths) Domestic Migration International Migration Total Change Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
Rate of Natural Change Counties in Michigan, 2015-2016 Rate of Natural Change (Births Deaths) (Natural Change per 1,000 People) -8.0 to -13.0 (Deaths much higher than Births) -1.0 to -7.9 (Deaths higher than Births) -0.9 to +0.9 (Deaths approaching Births) 1.0 to 4.9 (Births higher than Deaths) 5.0 to 7.0 (Births much higher than Deaths)
Rate of Net Domestic Migration Counties in Michigan, 2015-2016 Rate on Net Domestic Migration (Net Domestic Migration per 1,000 people) -8.0 to -13.0 (High Net Out-Migration) -3.0 to -7.9 (Moderate Net Out-Migration) 0 to -2.9 (Low Net Out-Migration) 0.1 to 2.9 (Low Net In-Migration) 3.0 to 7.9 (Moderate Net In-Migration) 8.0 to 12.0 (High Net In-Migration)
Rate of International Immigration Counties in Michigan, 2015-2016 Rate of International Immigration (Immigrants per 1,000 people) Less than 1.0 1.0 to 2.9 3.0 to 4.9 5.0 to 6.9
Aging Population As baby boomers entering senior age 100+ 95 99 90 94 85 89 80 84 75 79 70 74 65 69 60 64 55 59 50 54 45 49 40 44 35 39 30 34 25 29 20 24 15 19 10 14 5 9 Age 65+ 15% Age 65+ Baby Boomers Echo Boomers Age 65+ 23% 0 4 0 4 200,000-200,000-100,000 100,000 0 100,000 100,000 200,000 200,000-200,000 200,000-100,000 100,000 0 100,000 100,000 200,000 200,000 Male 2015 Female Male 2045 Female 100+ 95 99 90 94 85 89 80 84 75 79 70 74 65 69 60 64 55 59 50 54 45 49 40 44 35 39 30 34 25 29 20 24 15 19 10 14 5 9
Rapid Growth of Senior Population Southeast Michigan, 1990-2045 1,400,000 1,200,000 Age 65+ 1,160,417 1,000,000 800,000 697,088 600,000 400,000 200,000 99,688 Age 85+ 244,113 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Declining School Age Population Age 5-17, Southeast Michigan, 1995-2045 1,000,000 950,000 2002: 935,000 School Age Population, Ages 5 to 17 yrs 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 1995: 893,000-236,000 (-25%) 2045: 730,000 700,000 2017: 765,000 650,000 600,000 2028: 699,000 550,000 500,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Population Change by Age Group Age under 30: 124,000, or 7% 100+ 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age 65 and older: +463,000, or +67% -60,000-40,000-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
School Redeveloped to Senior Housing Starr Elementary School, Royal Oak, MI 2005 2010 2015
Declining Prime Working Age Population Age 25-54, Southeast Michigan, 1990-2045 2,300,000 2,200,000 2000 2,176,606 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1990 1,996,032-328,000 or -15% 2045 1,946,415 1,800,000 2017 1,848,192 1,700,000 1,600,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Modest Employment Growth Constrained by Labor Force 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 2000 2,844,540 Return to 2000 peak 2017 2,846,547 2045 2,958,724 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 1991 2,413,719 2010 2,490,379 2,000,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
More People Will Be Working Particularly people of older age groups 70.0% 60.0% 59.5% 61.4% 2015 2045 50.0% 45.8% 40.0% 32.8% 30.0% 20.0% 17.2% 10.0% 7.7% 0.0% All age 16+ Age 65 69 Age 75+
Jobs by Major Sector Southeast Michigan, 2001-2045 800,000 2001 2015 2045 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Government 200,000 Retail Trade 100,000 0
Higher Productivity with Technology But fewer jobs in some industries
Alternative Demographic Forecast 5,200,000 5,100,000 Baseline 5,000,000 4,900,000 4,800,000 Immigration Down 4,700,000 4,600,000 4,500,000 No Immigration 4,400,000 4,300,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
1,400,000 2045 Regional Development Forecast Population Trends by Large Area, 1990-2045 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Detroit Wayne, excluding Detroit Oakland Macomb Washtenaw Livingston St. Clair Monroe
Information on WWW.SEMCOG.ORG 1. Data and Maps Community Profiles Map Gallery 2. Forecast Interactive map 3. Performance Measures 4. Publications Annual population estimates
Contact Information Xuan Liu, Ph.D. Manager of Research, Data Analysis Liu@semcog.org (313) 324-3441 Southeast Michigan Council of Governments 1001 Woodward Ave., Suite 1400 Detroit, MI 48226 www.semcog.org