californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Sunday, January 28, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Doggone it, I have only hit ten of ten races (real tough, my colleagues) once before, and I just missed it yesterday. That s right, I blew the second race, but those other nine winners were really nice! Not all were chalk, not by a longshot (or, better said, by a longshot) and if you were able to follow my selections for Races 5-10 and bet accordingly, you could potentially have hit the $2 Pick 6 ($11,353), late $.50 Pick 5 ($1203.95) and late $.50 Pick 4 ($377.45). Nice work if you did so, and I hope you did. Some News Evin Roman Congratulations to the fabulous Evin Roman, who handily and deservedly won the Eclipse Award Winning Apprentice Jockey for 2017. He had won 166/912 mounts, and earned over $5 million for his owners in the process. On a more local level, he helped many of us win some money at the races. He is a terrific jockey without reservation, and, better yet, he retains his five-pound weight allowance for a couple of months yet. Super High Five You are the head coach, and I am merely the offensive coordinator, so I do not give wagering advice as you know, except to point out that the Pick 4 and Pick 5 are value bets, bets which can return a lot of money for a surprisingly small investment. However, I do think the Super High Five is a fascinating bet, considering the magnitude of the possible return. For example, had you successfully bet the Super High Five in Race 10 yesterday, 3-10-7-6-1 to be exact, you would have recovered $50,519.40 for a $1.00 investment. How is that for a return?
Now here is the rub: it is of course extremely difficult to predict the top five horses in a given race. As you know, the successful Super High Five bet calls for prediction of the top five finishers in the exact order of finish. Let s say that you were savvy enough to predict that the top five finishers in the tenth race yesterday would be the 1-3-6-7-10. Now, to perfect the bet, you would have had to box 1-3-6-7-10, @ $1. There are 120 combinations, so to box the 1-3- 6-7-10 would of course have cost $120. That s an expensive bet, and there is no certainty that you would recover anything. But, if you had it right, you got $50,519.40 for $120, again not a bad return. Something else potentially to have some fun with Note: The first post time today is 12:30 pm PST, 3:30 pm EST Sunday, January 28, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard
Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 3,4,5,6 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a
good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now ***** RACE 3: Be a Lady is in fact the M/L favorite, as the mare always races well here, has really picked it up in her last five starts, she is trained by one of the best and today has Evin Roman aboard, he of the enduring and endearing five-pound weight allowance, he is an excellent jockey even without that marked advantage (collectively, he is the Roman factor ). Her Again has hit the board in eleven of her last dozen races, and has won about a third of her lifetime races, she has an excellent trainer and shows very good works, watch her. Pica has hit the board in four of five races at RD, she has won almost 30% of her lifetime races, and comes off a win here early this month with this quintessential Left Coast rider aboard. RACE 4: Perfectly Majestic has done some of her best work at RD, churning out a 102 Beyer at such here last March, he kills Santa Anita and has never missed the board at RD, he clearly prefers the sprint and I am not sure why he spent time at the other, today he carries and HOF rider to boost his chances of success. Calculator, the overwhelming M/L favorite (9/5), moves down a bit from his lofty graded race perch, he has won both of his efforts at RD on the grass, one would be hardpressed to beat these connections. Sycamore Lane, a turf route runner, closes out effectively, he is always in contention and will make his presence known. RACE 5: Turing Machine makes the precipitous and propitious class drop out of MSW, she is one of only two entries to have hit the board at RD, she shows some excellent works and today benefits from the Roman factor. The M/L favorite, very wellrested Angels N Devildogs, is yet another entry dropping out of MSW, she carries a top-drawer rider and will vie. Tiny Tina likewise drops out of MSW, she did not
at all like the grass in her debut here last month, but she shows decent dirt works and good connections, she is good enough to show up in this one. RACE 6: These horses hate winning: No entry has more than one win Candy Boss shows a string of terrific works, is fairly steady speed-wise relative to the rest of the entries in this bland field, look for her to battle. Foxy Fresh is the M/L favorite, as she secures class relief, her sole win came at RD, and her works suggest competence as well. Ramona Lover comes off a win at RD last month, with this jockey as her captain, she is very steady speed-wise and seems to be on the upswing. Likeable Longshot: Sharp Holiday (M/L 30/1 because she has won only one of twenty races) has hit the board in four of six races at RD, and her rider has a hefty ten-pound weight allowance, theoretically like having a two-length head start, you might be tempted to place a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on her (please note: she clipped heels and fell in that last one). ***** ***** WHY NOT SUBSCRIBE?- IT S LESS THAN $1 PER DAY LESS THAN THE $2 PER DAY TOUTS CHARGED FOR THEIR CARD WHEN THIS TRACK OPENED ON DECEMBER 25, 1934 FOR TODAY S FULL RACE CARD FOR THE MERE SUM OF $2, OR, BETTER YET, TO SUBSCRIBE FOR 30 CALENDAR DAYS ANALYSIS FOR ONLY $20 GO TO californiawinning.com AND CLICK ON TODAY S FULL RACE CARD TO MAKE A PAYMENT. As soon as I receive notice of your payment from PayPal I will forward the full race card selections to you, promptly, I assure you. Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you.
Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?