THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 6/18/17 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! LEG 1 (R7): We ve got yet another 10-race card and ultra-competitive $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4 to close out the week s racing at the Great Race Place. We begin the proceedings with a Cal-bred MSW for 2-year-olds contested at 5-furlongs on the main track. We ve got a bunch of first-time starters, so tote and paddock observations should factor into your final decision. #1 STAY GLAD (9/2), the first of three Miyadi entrants, broke slowly from the rail in his debut, yet still managed to put forth a very nice run, closing ground strongly to finish third at 25/1. Surely, he can improve off that performance, but he does have the look of a horse who will eventually appreciate more ground. Plus, he s probably doomed to another poor start from the rail. GRADE: B. #2 DRAMA IS OVERRATED (4/1), the second Miyadi runner, was 2/1 in his debut. He too had a tough break, as he stumbled at the start and then was hooked wide in that short 4.5-furlong race. He s another one who should improve, so long as bug-boy Roman can get him away cleanly. GRADE: B. #3 THAT S GOLD (20/1) cost $5K last October, so I can t imagine he impressed anyone. He s the first foal out of an unraced dam, and the works aren t anything special. GRADE: X. #4 WILDCAT KAOS (8/1) has been 28/1 and 60/1 in his two starts, and he s run evenly both times, with his best finish coming in fourth. He ll need to do better today. GRADE: X. #5 GET EM UP SCOUT (5/1), the third Miyadi charge and the second one owned by Nick Alexander, is the first foal out of a 1-for-8 dam. The sire is responsible for some decent Cal-breds, and the presence of Prat is very interesting, but he s another who will probably appreciate some added ground (along with more experience). GRADE: C. #6 BOOKIES LUCK (7/2) was 11/10 in his debut, but he broke slowly and was hooked 3-wide while racing evenly to the wire. He then showed much better gate speed last time when he squared off against open MSWs so a return to the Cal-bred ranks should be just what the good doctor ordered today. GRADE: A. #7 SUIT OF LIGHTS (5/1) cost $15K this past October, and for an outfit that has no trouble throwing money around, that seems on the light side. That said, Miller and Rockingham Ranch have won a lot of races this meet and Miller knows how to get them ready at his personal playground at San Luis Rey. GRADE: B. #8 PUSH THROUGH (8/1) is a full to Octofy, a filly who managed to win two races, including start number-two when she broke her maiden at LRC. Freeman does good work with young runners, but the works are on the slow side, so this guy will need to hurry from the gate. GRADE: X. #9 LUCKY CLERIC (15/1) debuts for Moger, who can have them ready to run, but he s a trainer who does much better work up north. This guy cost $11K back in August, which seems a little light since both of this guy s full siblings were multiple winners. He s been training exclusively on synth, however, so we ll see how he reacts to his new surroundings. GRADE: X. #10 OH JERRY (20/1) has some very sharp works for a trainer who doesn t have too many firsttime starters. This guy s one half-sibling won at 2-years-old, so the breeding is there for him to fit in this spot. Expect bug-boy Fuentes to gun hard and hope for the best but if this guy is hooked wide, he s going to have some trouble finishing in the lane at this short distance. GRADE: C.
LEG 2 (R8): Today s second leg is the female version of the $25K starter-handicap we saw on Saturday a one-mile turf affair for fillies and mares who have started for a claiming price of $25K or less in 2016-2017. The rails are at 10-feet. #1 WARREN S JEN FIZZ (20/1) is a pretty honest gal who picks up plenty of checks, but it s been a long time between drinks of water for her. She s eminently usable in your exotics, since she always fires, but I m hard-pressed to use her on top in a race where several of these gals like to win. That said, she gets in pretty light today. GRADE: X. #2 AN UNUSUAL GROUP (6/1) ran a closing third down the hill against $50K foes in her first start for Machowsky, who is pushing all of the right buttons this meet. We ll see if this gal can show the same punch stretching out, but based on her NorCal form, she should be just fine in here against these. Raffi takes the call. GRADE: B. #3 JENNYWAY U WANT IT (20/1) has tactical speed, which has served her well when it s come to hitting the board, but she s another one who lacks a will to win. She ll need a step forward today against some tough ladies. GRADE: X. #4 GIRL DOWNSTAIRS (6/1) looks good in here, since she s done nice work at the $40K claiming level, and she has a nice win against $25K starter foes as well. She s a cool gal who has won on turf and dirt, and her tractable running style means C-Nak can put her wherever he wants in this race. GRADE: A. #5 WEALTHY SHIPMAN (4/1) has been very consistent since coming to SoCal and running well down the hill. Now we ll see if she can take her game around two turns while making her first start for Hollendorfer, who just took her for $25K. Expect her to be in a forward position early on the stretch-out, then we ll see what she s got. GRADE: B. #6 NINE POINT NINE (8/1) only knows one way to go and that s to the front. I like that Prat takes the call, but I don t like that this gal should face some heat from her outside neighbor and I really don t like that she was beaten at this level two back at 4/5, losing to a few of these in the process. I don t think the race sets up well for her, but this turf course has been favoring speed around two turns lately. GRADE: C. #7 LITTLE BIT LOVELY (6/1) has a ton of sprint speed, so she should make things very difficult for her inside foe, since she s stretching out after a steady diet of downhill races. She was just claimed by Peter Miller for $25K, so we ll see how she handles the stretch-out under his tutelage, but it doesn t seem like the race sets up all that well for her. GRADE: X. #8 BACKINTHEACADEMY scratched. #9 LIAR S SMOKER (9/2) just won at this level two back when going 9-panels, beating a few of these in the process. That said, she got a perfect trip that day, so we ll see how she does today with some adversity and the reason I say adversity is because I know she won t get a perfect trip under Roman, who takes over for the smooth-riding turf guru C-Nak. Toss her last when she had to break from the 11-post but a similar wide journey seems in the cards again today. At least the Dorf has seen fit to protect her in her last two races, if you re a believer. GRADE: C. #10 MOONLESS SKY (7/2) is your deserving 128-pound highweight, and while that seems like a lot of weight, note that she has carried 126-pounds a few times before. We ll see if the 8-pound spread to the lightest animals in here will even the playing field, but it s hard to ignore this gal s terrific turf form and exciting turn of foot. She s just too sharp to ignore weights be damned! GRADE: A. #11 SCATTERLING (IRE) (12/1) looked good beating N2L foes last time, but this is a big class hike for a gal who will need to move forward today after a good trip from the rail last time. GRADE: X.
LEG 3 (R9): Today s third leg is a $40K optional-claiming/n1x contested at 8-furlongs on the main track. #1 SHOW ME DA LUTE (5/1) is a Baffert 3-year-old making his first start of the year after a mixed bag of races last year, where he wasn t really backed like your typical talented Baffert. On the plus side, his breeding is excellent, and he did win at first asking going 8.5-furlongs, so he s capable of firing fresh (even though the works aren t your typical Baffert sizzlers). The cozy inside draw will certainly help his cause and note that before he hit the bench, he had to face the likes of Mastery in the Los Al Futurity (G1). GRADE: B. #2 AIRLITE (8/1) had been racing on turf until a fortuitous weather system took his last start down the hill off the lawn. This guy responded with a solid sprint victory at 7/2. He stretches out for the first time, which should be okay, but do note that the time he tried a mile on turf, he just kind of ran evenly. GRADE: X. #3 BOY HOWDY (8/1) has done decent work sprinting against Cal-breds, but the two scenarios he faces today open-company while going two turns haven t really worked out for him. Last time, he finished fifth at this level, and the one time he went two turns, he pushed the pace and weakened as the 5/2 chalk. GRADE: X. #4 ACTION HERO (12/1) came off a 380-day layoff last time and failed to menace. He was 9/1 that day, so not much was expected, despite the fact that Raffi was riding. Well, he loses Raffi today, so we ll see if Pedroza can get this guy in the mix this time. Note that it took him a while to break his maiden and when he did, he got a perfect forwardly placed trip through a slow pace. Those things are unlikely today. GRADE: X. #5 KARMA KING (6/1) was last seen running second at this level, pushing the pace before getting run down in the lane. It wasn t a bad effort considering he had been doing his best work against claimers, so at least you know he can compete with these. The problem is: that race came in July 2016, so he ll need to be super-fit off just Los Al works today. I m inclined to watch one, especially since his best work has come sprinting. GRADE: X. #6 PIONEER LAD (6/1) is a 3-year-old who just broke his maiden in professional fashion while sprinting. He beat a well-fancied Baffert, and he did it in such a way that suggested two turns won t be an issue. Obviously, it s tough to stretch out and face winners for the first time, but Baltas knows what he s doing, and at least you know thig guy will get a good forwardly placed trip. GRADE: A. #7 HONOR AND COURAGE (3/1) was life and death to finally break his maiden last time in start number-seven and he needed every bit of the 8.5-furlongs and 7-pound weight-break to get the job done. He now cuts back a half-furlong while having to face winners but at least he retains his 7-pound weight-break. Also, he s yet to run a poor race around two turns, so even though it looks like he s a bit of a hanger, he must be considered here getting in so light (112-pounds). GRADE: B. #8 SAINT DERMOT (6/1) is the horse you want if there is a pace collapse which is quite possible given the early speed types and stretch-out sprinters in here. That said, this guy has been the beaten favorite at this level quite a few times already, so he ll need to show a bit more fight when the real running starts since he s always been a cut below the allowance-level horses. Still, pace makes the race and this guy will get a pace to close into. GRADE: B. #9 PAPPOU (12/1) took sixteen tries to break his maiden and it came against $50K foes. He should be grinding along late, but he s tough to support on the win end. GRADE: X. #10 GIANT INFLUENCE (10/1) was a top pick for me last time at 9/1, but an inside draw going 7- furlongs proved his undoing, as he wanted no part of being inside. Two back, he encountered all sorts of trouble at today s distance, after being sent off as the 2/1 favorite against similar types. I wish he had shown a little more in that race, but I do think there is some talent here. GRADE: A. #11 DREAM POLICE scratched. #12 MYSTERY TRAIN (ARG) scratched.
LEG 4 (R10): Today s sequence ends with a cool MSW for fillies and mares going 6.5-furlongs down the hill. #1 TIZ GOLDILUX (12/1) has the breeding to be okay on the turf, but it s well-documented that trainer Marty Jones is infinitely patient, so I ll have to watch one today especially with this gal having to break from the rail. GRADE: X. #2 TIME FOR LUCK (20/1) cost less than her sire s stud fee, and that s not a good thing. Papaprodromou doesn t often win with firsters, and we all know how tough it is to win down the hill at first asking. GRADE: X. #3 MAG THE MIGHTY (8/1) cost $80K last year, and she s a half to Wrightwood, who we ve seen running in beaten-claimers on this circuit. That said, this gal goes out for D Amato, who can have them ready to run at first asking. GRADE: C. #4 BLISSFUL ROSE (12/1), the second D Amato runner, doesn t seem to have much turf on the top side, but her dam produced a couple of turf runners, so we ll see if this gal takes to the lawn. The works seem a little slower than her stablemate s, so perhaps this gal will need one. GRADE: C. #5 CREME DE LA (6/1) is a 4-year-old who adds blinkers after lollygagging early in much longer races. She ll definitely need to maintain contact with the field while cutting back in distance, but she has a decent enough closing kick to come running late but it is a little disconcerting that this gal hasn t run better in her two U.S. starts. GRADE: B. #6 CHRISTINA scratched. #7 KITTY S GIRL (12/1) cost $40K last year despite her sire s stud fee being $100K. She goes out for a trainer who is below-average with debut runners, so I ll have to let her beat me. GRADE: X. #8 TRUE TESTAMENT (7/2) is 0-for-9 but she s finished in-the-money in eight of those nine starts, so she s always right there. She s run down the hill twice before, where she contested the pace but was overtaken in the lane so with the Dorf being the smart trainer that he is, he legs up Roman today for that 7-pound advantage. GRADE: B. #9 OF NOTE (30/1) tried the downhill last time, and she ran an okay race, trying to close into a slow pace after a slow start while breaking from the rail. She can definitely improve off that effort, especially if there is a pace collapse, which is quite possible with several first-time starters in here. GRADE: X. #10 SHE SASHOCKER (3/1) broke my heart last time when she was lipped out of a victory at 9/1, losing to a royally bred first-time starter who will likely go on to do good things. She ll get the right tracking trip, and she s run well twice down the hill. GRADE: A. #11 BREATHE (7/2) makes her 4-year-old debut after three dirt races last year that saw her set the pace and weaken. As good as Sadler is, he s not very good off this kind of layoff (296-days), so we ll see if this gal is fit enough to win here. On the plus side, Prat takes the call, so this gal must be doing well in the mornings. One more thing to consider: her breeding doesn t exactly scream turf! GRADE: C. #12 ROBIN S LOVE (15/1) ran half a race in her debut, going 6.5-furlongs on dirt. She was 26/1 that day, so no one liked her chances. The switch to the lawn should help, but Gaines has been a little chilly this meet. GRADE: X. SUGGESTED WAGER This is another very good sequence, so I m fine spending $69 to cover the whole Matrix. If you want to spend less, $57 will get you all A s with two B s, while a mere $17 will get you all A s with one B. Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/.
Keep in mind: I don t add Also Eligibles to the Matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets! [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]