U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019
Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity
Economic Activity
Economic Activity New Orders for Durable Goods Billions of Dollars 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Durable Goods Date Last Modified: 4/8/19 Last Data Point: February = 250 NOTE: Grey shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Excl. Transportation: Date Last Modified: 4/8/19 Last Data Point: February = 164
Economic Activity Thousands of Jobs 600 Change in Nonfarm Employment 300 0-300 -600-900 Change in Nonfarm Employment Date Last Modified: 4/5/19 Last Data Point: March = 196 3 Year Average SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Author's calculations.
Economic Activity Initial Claims for Unemployment and Unemployment Rate 4 Week MA: Thousands Percent Unemployment 700 10 600 500 400 300 200 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Initial Claims - 4 Week MA: (Left Side) Date Last Modified: 4/4/19 Last Data Point: 3/30/19 = 213.5 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Department of Labor. Unemployment Rate: (Right Side) Date Last Modified: 4/5/19 Last Data Point: March = 3.8
Economic Activity Index 70 ISM Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing 60 50 40 30 ISM Nonmanufacturing Date Last Modified: 4/3/19 Last Data Point: March = 56.1 ISM Manufacturing Date Last Modified: 4/1/19 Last Data Point: March = 55.3 NOTES: Grey shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. Measurements above 50 indicate expanding activity; measurements below 50 indicate falling activity. SOURCE: Institute for Supply Management.
Economic Activity Index, March 1973 = 100 120 Real Value of the Dollar 110 100 90 80 70 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Exchange Value of the US $ Date Last Modified: 4/1/19 Last Data Point: March = 102.13 NOTES: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. *Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board. US $ vs. Major Currencies* Date Last Modified: 4/1/19 Last Data Point: March = 105.97
Economic Activity 1-month % change 4 Retail Sales 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 Retail Sales Date Last Modified: 4/1/19 Last Data Point: February = -.2 3 Year Average SOURCES: Census Bureau; Author's calculations.
Economic Activity 1 month % change 1.0 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5 Real PCE Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: January =.12 3 Year Average SOURCES: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Author's calculations.
Economic Activity Thousands 2,500 Housing Starts and Permits 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Housing Starts Date Last Modified: 3/26/19 Last Data Point: February = 1162 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Permits Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: February = 1291
Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Confidence (Index = 100 in 1985) Date Last Modified: 3/26/19 Last Data Point: March = 124.1 Sentiment (Index = 100 in 1964): Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: March = 98.4 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCES: The Conference Board; Survey of Consumers; Survey Research Center; U. of Michigan.
Economic Activity 1 quarter % change annualized 6 Real GDP 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Real GDP Date Last Modified: 3/28/19 Last Data Point: 2018 Q4 = 2.2 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Economic Activity 1 month % change 2 Industrial Production 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 Industrial Production Date Last Modified: 3/27/19 Last Data Point: February = 0 3 Year Average SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board.
Wages and Prices
Wages and Prices 1 month % change 0.6 Average Hourly Earnings 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0-0.1-0.2 Average Hourly Earnings Date Last Modified: 4/5/19 Last Data Point: March =.26 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Wages and Prices 1967 = 100, End of Period 1,200 Commodity Prices 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals Date Last Modified: 3/31/19 Last Data Point: March = 896 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. KR-CRB stands for Knight-Ridder Commodity Research Bureau. SOURCE: Commodity Research Bureau. KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Materials Date Last Modified: 3/31/19 Last Data Point: March = 495
Wages and Prices 12-month % change 5 PCE Price Index 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Headline PCE Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: January = 1.4 NOTES: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. Dashed line indicates Fed target inflation rate of 2 percent. SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Core PCE Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: January = 1.8 Trimmed Mean PCE Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: January = 1.8
Wages and Prices 1 month % change 1.0 Core Producer Price Index 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 Core PPI Date Last Modified: 3/13/19 Last Data Point: February =.1 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Wages and Prices 1 month % change 4 Producer Price Index 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 PPI Date Last Modified: 3/13/19 Last Data Point: February =.2 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Wages and Prices Headline and Core Consumer Price Index 12-month % change 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Headline CPI Date Last Modified: 3/12/19 Last Data Point: February = 1.5 NOTE: Gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Core CPI Date Last Modified: 3/12/19 Last Data Point: February = 2.1
Wages and Prices 1 quarter % change 1.0 Employment Cost Index 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Employment Cost Index Date Last Modified: 1/31/19 Last Data Point: 2018 Q4 =.7 3 Year Average SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Financial Activity
Financial Activity Percent 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 Real Federal Funds Rate -6 Target Fed Funds Rate less U. Michigan Expected Inflation Date Last Modified: 3/29/19 Last Data Point: March = -.13 Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation Date Last Modified: 11/13/18 Last Data Point: =.025 SOURCES: Federal Reserve Board; FRB Philadelphia; Survey of Consumers; Survey Research Center; U. of Michigan.
Financial Activity Short-Term Interest Rates Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board. 3-Month LIBOR Date Last Modified: 4/7/19 Last Data Point: 4/5/19 = 2.6 Discount Window Primary Credit Rate Date Last Modified: 4/5/19 Last Data Point: 4/4/19 = 3 3-Month T-Bill Rate Date Last Modified: 4/5/19 Last Data Point: 4/5/19 = 2.44 Target Fed Fund Rate Date Last Modified: 4/5/19 Last Data Point: 4/5/19 = 2.375
Financial Activity Percent 7 Long-Term Interest Rates 6 5 4 3 2 1 SOURCE: Federal Reserve Board. Mortgage Rate Date Last Modified: Week of 4/4/19 Last Data Point: 4/4/19 = 4.08 10-year T-Bond Date Last Modified: Week of 4/1/19 Last Data Point: 3/29/19 = 2.41