Growth in the Gallatin Douglas J. Young Professor of Economics Montana State University January 16, 28 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, Net Migration to Montana 199-2 1-19 2-29 3-39 4-49 5-59 6-69 7-79 Census 199 & 2, and Vital Statistics Age in 2 Net Migration to Eastern/Northern Montana 5, -5, 1-19 2-29 3-39 4-49 5-59 6-69 7-79 -1, -15, -2, -25, Age in 2 1% % - - Montana Population Growth 2-26 West/South East/North Total Resident Population July 1, 26 (in 1s) Gallatin Flathead Missoula Yellowstone Rest of MT 81 85 11 138 539 Bureau of the Census Bureau of the Census 1
Percent of Value Population Growth 2-26 1 1 1 1 1% % Bureau of the Census 1 1 % Dwellings Gallatin Flathead Missoula Yellowstone Rest of State 1 1 1 Dwellings Value 1 3% Dwellings Value 3 5 1% % Gallatin Flathead Missoula Yellowstone Rest of State % Madison 1 1 1% % West/South East/North Total 2
Mills Levied Percent Change Percent Change 2-26 Public School Enrollment 1% Gallatin 85 Enrollment by Grade Gallatin County: 2 8 Flathead % Yellow stone 75 - Missoula 7-1% 65 Rest of MT MT OPI -1 6 MT OPI K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Gallatin Enrollment Growth Grade (k, 26) v. Grade (k-6, 2) 2 1 Taxable Value: 2-26 5 3 3% 2 1% 1% 1 % 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 Grade MT OPI Adjusted for Dropout rate Grades 9-1, 1-11, & 11-12 % Montana Taxpayers Association Taxable Value per Capita: 26 $2,5 $2,251 $2,162 $2,163 $2, $1,816 $1,699 $1,5 $1, $5 $ Montana Taxpayers Association 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 - Property Tax Rates 53 2 62 534 3
Mills Levied 7 6 5 Property Tax Rates Gallatin Personal Income 2 26 685 695 66 62 52 53 534 551 4 3 2 1 - : Biennial Reports 3% 21% 1% % Earnings Div-Int-Rents Transfers US Bureau of Economic Analysis for 25 1 1 1 1% % US BEA for 25 Resources (Agriculture, Forestry, Mining, Utilities) USA 1 1 1 1% % 1 Wholesale/Retail Trade 13% 1 1 1 USA US Bureau of Economic Analysis for 25 1 1 1 1% % Construction 13% USA 1 1 1 1% % Manufacturing 13% USA 4
1 1 1 1% % Real Estate 3% 3% USA 1 1 1 1% % Professional/Technical Services USA 1 1 1 1% % Accomodations/Food/Bars 3% 3% 3% 3% USA 1 1 1 1% % Health Care/Social Services 1 1 1% USA 1 Federal Government 1 State Government 1 1 1 1 1% % 3% USA 1% % 3% 1% USA 5
Millions of 27 Dollars 1 1 1 1% Gallatin Summary Montana Gallatin Gallatin Summary Part-Year Residents/Tourism + Professional/Technical Services + Montana State University = Construction Boom % Trade Construction State Gov't Real Estate Prof/Tech Health Care Manuf Is the Boom Sustainable? Gallatin County has the physical capacity to grow 3%/year for a long time. Large areas of land remain in low value uses, e.g. grazing or wheat. Water would have to be diverted from agricultural use to residential. Do we want this much growth? Will the Boom Continue? MSU Research Expenditures $12 Construction depends on Growth: Even a Slow-down in Growth will Cause a Decline in Construction $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ 199 1995 2 25 Office of Sponsored Programs, MSU 6
Thousands of Dollars Days Number of Permits Value ($Millions) Number of Sales Bozeman Building Permits 1,2 1, Number: Left Axis 8 6 4 Value: Right Axis 2 199 1995 2 25 Bozeman City Planning Department $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ Single Family Home Sales 7 652 6 554 26 27 5 4 3 284 268 2 1 43 55 Bozeman Belgrade Big Sky Gallatin Association of Realtors 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Median Prices: Single Family Home Sales 26 27 341 328 237 239 1,625 1,4 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Average Days on Market: Single Family Home Sales 26 27 9 83 79 63 65 191 - Bozeman Belgrade Big Sky Gallatin Association of Realtors Bozeman Belgrade Big Sky Gallatin Association of Realtors Some Questions: Where goeth Interest Rates? Fallout from the Subprime Mess? Congressional Earmarks? What Forces drive Big Sky and Where are They Headed? This presentation is available at: http://djyoung.org Click on Papers Or by email: djyoung@montana.edu Thanks: MSU Extension Service 7