THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVII Issue 15 October 23, 2017 $12.00 TOP 3 COLLEGE KEYS DELIVER RATING 3, 4, & 5 KEYS ARE 27-18 THIS SEASON 4th Quarter Covers NCAA Week 8 Memphis (+1) 42, Houston 38: Houston led 17-0 at halftime and still clung to a 31-21 lead heading into the fourth quarter despite allowing a kickoff return touchdown. The Tigers scored first in the fourth quarter to trail by only three, even with the opening spread on the game though the line quickly fell to -2½ for the home favorite before closing at just -1. Houston answered with a 13- play 81-yard touchdown drive to go back up by 10 with fewer than seven minutes remaining. Memphis delivered a pair of touchdown drives in the final minutes surrounding a Houston 3-andout and took the lead with a minute and a half remaining. The final two possessions for Houston ended in turnovers as Memphis escaped with a road win and cover. Western Kentucky (-7) 35, Old Dominion 31: The Hilltoppers led by seven at the half but an energized Old Dominion squad rallied with 17 points in the third quarter to lead by 10 as an underdog with a line as high as +10 early in the week before closing at +7. In the span of less than two minutes in the middle of the fourth quarter Western Kentucky had a pair of touchdown strikes in between a Monarchs interception to suddenly lead 35-31. With still more than seven minutes remaining the favorite cover was back on the table as a possibility. That cause got even more life with an Old Dominion fumble in Western Kentucky territory as the Monarchs went for it on 4th-and-short. The Hilltoppers played conservatively and got the game clock into the final minute before punting and Old Dominion was intercepted with no return on the final play as the Monarchs still held the cover in a demoralizing loss. Air Force (-6) 45, Nevada 42: Air Force wound up posting nearly 600 yards in this game but they led by just seven through three quarters, even with the common spread during the week though the Falcons opened and closed just below that key number. Nevada tied the game with 11:39 remaining and touchdowns were exchanged between these Mountain West foes to keep the game tied past the four-minute mark. Air Force converted a pair of big third down plays to sustain a drive into scoring territory but those looking for a spreadsaving touchdown were denied as the Falcons were pushed back with a personal foul penalty and settled for running out the clock and kicking a game-winning field goal. Colorado State (-10) 27, New Mexico 24: The Rams moved from an opening favorite price of -6½ all the way up to -10 by kickoff late Friday night. Down by 11 at halftime New Mexico struck for a quick two-play touchdown drive midway through the third quarter to trail by four. Colorado State connected for a field goal early in the fourth quarter and then taking advantage of the only turnover in the game the Rams went up by 10 with a second field goal with about five minutes remaining. New Mexico converted a 4th-and-15 near midfield and then reached 1st-and-goal from the Colorado State four-yard-line just past the two-minute mark. Three penalties, a recovered fumble, and a near interception followed and New Mexico faced 2nd-and-goal from the 31-yard-line. Freshman quarterback Tevaka Tuioti got almost half of the yardage back with a near-sack scramble and then on 4th down connected for a jump ball touchdown with 24 seconds remaining to put the Lobos inside the underdog spread. New Mexico actually recovered the onside kick as well but took a sack on the game s final play. Northwestern (-2½) 17, Iowa 10: Northwestern didn t score in the first half but the Wildcats managed to tie the game halfway through the third quarter and then took a 10-7 lead with eight minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Iowa threw an interception on its next possession but Northwestern failed to capitalize, failing going for it on 4th down rather than attempting a long field goal. Iowa managed to tie the game with a field goal at the 1:30 mark, a kick pushed back to 48 yards after a false start. In overtime Northwestern went first and Clayton Thorson delivered a touchdown, while Iowa was unable to pick up a first down as the Wildcats got the win and cover in a key Big Ten West game. SMU (-6) 31, Cincinnati 28: The Mustangs trailed most of the first half but wound up going up by one by halftime. The third quarter featured missed opportunities on both sides and with just over six minutes remaining in the game SMU delivered a 25-yard touchdown strike to lead 28-20. The Bearcats would answer with a 21-yard touchdown pass on 4th-and-3 and Hayden Moore hit Devin Gray again for the twopoint-conversion as well to tie the game with just over two minutes remaining. In overtime SMU incredibly converted a 4th-and-26 play but wound up still settling for a field goal to the chagrin of those laying points with the Mustangs. On a 3rd down play for Cincinnati Moore was intercepted as SMU sealed the narrow road win but fell short of the spread. Western Michigan (-1½) 20, Eastern Michigan 17: The Broncos opened at -4 but -3 was the common number most of the week before sliding on game day. Western Michigan led by three at halftime but the game was tied early in the third quarter and then again early in the fourth quarter. Western Michigan had a fumble and a missed field goal late in the fourth quarter to keep the game tied 17-17. The Broncos went first in overtime and reached the 5-yard-line quickly before stalling, settling for a 21- yard field goal. Continue at www.vegasinsider.com. Between the Lines... To say Week 7 was an unusual week in the NFL would be an understatement with some very puzzling box scores. Teams that posted 153, 242, and 269 total yards all wound up winners, the first two of those three teams winning by double-digits. A pair of games with fewer than 600 combined total yards cleared the over while three games all featuring at least 746 combined yards all stayed under as several games featured incongruent scoring and production numbers. There were two pushes, both for home favorites that trailed late in the fourth quarter but managed to win by three. There were also three shutout wins and in one instance the team shut out was +2 in turnovers. Quarterback injuries were a major storyline for the second straight week as Carson Palmer broke his arm early in the loss to the Rams in London. His season and perhaps his career may be over. Miami lost Jay Cutler with a chest injury only to rally for a win behind Matt Moore, who led the Dolphins late last season. Offensive line injuries are often not headline-grabbers but they can be very impactful. Joe Thomas ended his long consecutive snaps streak to add the misery for the Browns while the Giants also lost Justin Pugh. The Panthers and Rams had injuries to their centers while the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and Jaguars all also have linemen with questionable statuses moving forward. Kicker injuries are rare but Dallas survived an injury to Dan Bailey with Safety Jeff Heath going 2/3 on extra-points and taking kickoff duties in a blowout win. Right now there are no real surprises in the AFC division leaders with the divisions technically led by New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Kansas City, all teams that had winning records last season and teams that at least received strong consideration in the preseason predictions. Buffalo and Miami would be the wild cards for the moment with the only major surprise in the standings overall being the Raiders in last place but at 3-4 with some recent life shown behind Derek Carr s return Oakland still could be a relevant team in the AFC by season s end. Scoring differential offers some surprises as Jacksonville at +73 paces the AFC, just behind another surprise team for the overall league lead with the Rams at +74. Houston and Buffalo sit above and behind New England with the Patriots just +29 after finishing last season +191 to lead the NFL by 57 points. The NFC picture is pretty wild compared to last season though it is such a tightly packed group that plenty can change. Right now Seattle would be the only 2016-17 playoff team to make the field and they would do so as a wild card as the current division leaders finished 4th, 3rd, 3rd, and 3rd in the division standings last season. Four of the six NFC playoff teams from last season are currently.500 or worse and two of the three worst teams in scoring differential are teams most expected to be playoff contenders with the Giants -44 and the Cardinals -72 surrounding the 0-7 49ers at -63. Next Tuesday the College Football Playoff Rankings will be released and they should be pretty straight forward with Alabama & Georgia 1 & 2 provided Georgia is not upset in Jacksonville this week. If both of those teams finish 12-0 and the SEC championship isn t a blowout both teams will deserve to get in the field in most scenarios. TCU will be in the top four if they win in Ames this week to move to 8-0, with beating Iowa State far from a given this season for anyone. The ACC situation is rather murky with Clemson still in the driver s seat and NC State and Miami still alive to make a run for serious national consideration. November 4 will sort out the ACC picture with Clemson/NC State and Virginia Tech/Miami games. The Big 10 decisions will be the most interesting this week and moving forward as there are some incredible scenarios possible. The easiest path would be Penn State beating Ohio State this week but the Nittany Lions are certainly dogged in Columbus. The most fascinating scenario would be if Ohio State beats Penn State but slips up in a different November game with a few unlikely but still plausible possibilities (at Iowa, Michigan State, at Michigan). Penn State could win out to finish 11-1 but Ohio State would win the Big Ten East. If Ohio State beats Wisconsin and wins the Big Ten championship would they get in the College Football Playoff at 11-2 over an 11-1 Penn State team? Probably, especially if Wisconsin is 12-0 but that debate should sound familiar as it was the situation Penn State was in last season. The Lions were left out as Big Ten champions with the head-to-head win in favor of 11-1 Ohio State. Best of Luck and on to this week s slate This version of the Green Sheet is prepared exclusively for www.vegasinsider.com UNAUTHORIZED DUPLICATION, REPRODUCTION, TRANSFER, OR PUBLIC POSTING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. VIOLATORS WILL FACE AN IMMEDIATE TERMINATION OF THEIR SUBSCRIPTION.
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 GEORGIA (-14) over Florida RATING 4 TEXAS TECH (+20½) over Oklahoma RATING 3 MICHIGAN STATE (-1) over Northwestern RATING 2 NEW MEXICO (+3) over Wyoming RATING 2 APPALACHIAN ST (-4) over Massachusetts RATING 1 LOUISIANA TECH (-13) over Rice RATING 1 MINNESOTA (+7½) over Iowa ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2017 Toledo (-26) BALL STATE 6:00 PM A once promising Ball State season has turned disastrous with now four straight losses. Down offensive stars the Cardinals have scored 15 points the past three games and a bye week didn t help the cause with a humiliating 56-9 home loss last week. 3rd string quarterback Zack Blair was given an opportunity but the injury-plagued offensive line has struggled, allowing eight more sacks last week. Toledo looks like the team to beat in the MAC with a second straight convincing win last week. A huge showdown with Northern Illinois is up next as this isn t likely to a spot on the schedule that brings ideal focus. Logan Woodside has 16 touchdowns and just two interceptions as the edge at quarterback will be tremendous for the Rockets. TOLEDO BY 28 South Alabama (-2) GEORGIA STATE 6:30 PM Riding a three-game winning streak Georgia State failed in a big opportunity at home against one of the Sun Belt favorites. South Alabama is the team that upset Troy earlier this month and the Jaguars scored another Sun Belt win last week as the offense has shown a recent spark. South Alabama won 13-10 last season at home as the host has won three in a row in this series. Georgia State is the second worst rushing team in the nation posting only 3.0 yards per carry as the Jaguars may be a threat to continue to make noise in the Sun Belt. Last week s game was a huge opportunity for the Panthers at home in a marquee matchup with a nearby rival and it will be difficult to get that same energy and focus on a short week. SA BY 3 NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-7½) Eastern Michigan 6:00 PM Eastern Michigan has lost five games in a row but two overtime defeats are included in the run with a net scoring deficit of just 20 points in the five games combined. Last week s defeat was incredibly demoralizing with a short overtime field goal missed against rival and 2016 MAC champion Western Michigan in a huge home game. The draw this week is difficult with a fourth road game in five weeks for the Eagles. The Huskies have a huge game in the MAC West race up next at Toledo and NIU hasn t been as dominant as they were last week most of the season. NIU needed overtime in Ypsilanti last season in an even game and Eastern Michigan should continue to provide competitive performances even in an emotionally taxing season following last season s bowl breakthrough. NIU BY 3 Stanford (-23) OREGON STATE 8:00 PM The Cardinal remains one of the highest regarded two-loss teams in the nation but the resume deserves some scrutiny. Stanford s losses to USC and San Diego State rate a bit less respectable at this point in the season and the wins over Utah and Oregon have come against backup quarterbacks. An Oregon State defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry should offer Bryce Love an opportunity to build his Heisman case further with already nearly 1,400 yards rushing on an outrageous 10.3 yards per carry. Oregon State had its most competitive game in the first game following Gary Andersen stepping aside hosting Colorado with the offense having a bit more success led by Darell Garreton at quarterback. Stanford has allowed 25 points per game in Pac-12 play which could make this spread hard to reach. STANFORD BY 21 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2017 Florida State (-3) BOSTON COLLEGE The Eagles have covered in five straight games while getting back-to-back road upsets in the ACC play the last two weeks to reach 4-4. A bowl bid will still require an upset with a tough remaining schedule and catching the reeling Seminoles on a short week could be an opportunity. The nation s longest bowl streak (35 years) is in jeopardy with Florida State 2-4 and only working with 11 games this season to reach six wins. The losses have all been in close games against quality teams and Florida State will be favored in four of five remaining games in most scenarios but one upset loss could tip the scales. Boston College lost 45-7 last season in Tallahassee but played tough in the previous three meetings. Last season the Eagles had only 146 total yards but this year s team features a dangerous pass rush now facing a freshman quarterback that has struggled. FSU BY 1 MEMPHIS (-11) Tulane Tulane moved the ball effectively last week against a highly ranked South Florida squad but fell behind 34-7 before rallying late. Tulane gains 5.4 yards per carry with an option attack but the Wave has been equally vulnerable on defense. Memphis scored a huge win over Houston last week to sit in the AAC West driver s seat. Memphis has had mostly narrow wins along the way to a 6-1 start however even with Riley Ferguson already to 20 touchdown passes. Memphis has had overwhelming recent series history success in this series of former Conference USA foes now in the AAC but the Wave have narrowly covered the past two years in losses. MEMPHIS BY 10 SMU (-10) Tulsa 8:00 PM Tulsa won 10 games last season but the Hurricane look certain to be home for the postseason this year at 2-6 with several tough games remaining. Tulsa beat SMU last season in overtime with a 43-40 result with these teams averaging 73 points per game the past three seasons. SMU is still in the AAC West race at 2-1 in league play but the November schedule is very difficult and this could be a key game in securing a bowl bid. Tulsa is a threat in the running game but the run defense has surrendered 5.8 yards per carry. SMU is +9 in turnovers this season for some great fortune and these teams are likely much closer in caliber than the contrasting records and this double-digit spread might suggest. SMU BY 3 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2017 PURDUE (-5½) Nebraska 6:30 PM An encouraging start to the season for Purdue suffered a big setback last week with a loss at Rutgers in a key opportunity to bolster the bowl hopes for the Boilermakers. This game likely rests as a critical game in the postseason bids for both sides. Nebraska hasn t missed a bowl game since 2007 and while major changes seem to be on the horizon this figures to be an important opportunity coming off a bye week after a pair of home losses by a combined score of 94-31. Nebraska won 27-14 last season at home but lost in West Lafayette two years ago. Purdue had a 25-8 first down edge and a 474-217 yardage edge last week as the Boilermakers have had some odd results both ways. Nebraska has faced a daunting schedule and they won convincingly in two B10 games vs. lesser teams. NEBRASKA BY 3 KENTUCKY (-5½) Tennessee 6:30 PM The Wildcats were exposed last week for a fragile 5-1 start to the season, blown out in Starkville. There are no sure wins remaining on the schedule as this season has the potential to follow the path of the 2014 campaign when Kentucky lost the final six games of the season after a 5-1 start through a light schedule. 0-4 in SEC play Tennessee has an opportunity to turn around its season if Butch Jones is given that opportunity. The Volunteers have winnable games the next three weeks and Tennessee has won 31 of the last 32 meetings in this series while only dogged once in that run. The given the severe contrasts in the scheduling faced the statistical comparison isn t overly meaningful as the Vols may still have the edge. TENNESSEE BY 3 SOUTH CAROLINA (-6½) Vanderbilt 3:00 PM Vanderbilt has lost four in a row following a 3-0 start to the season but had had two weeks to regroup ahead of a critical stretch in the schedule. The Gamecocks were also off last week following back-to-back wins over Arkansas and Tennessee. The Gamecocks are 5-2 as surprise SEC threat and they will get a shot at Georgia next week. The statistics don t always add up for South Carolina but they have found ways to win in several close games and a narrow Gamecocks win has been the norm in recent years of this series with an eight-game winning streak but only one win by more than 14 points. At 0-4 in SEC play this is a season-making opportunity for the Commodores and the brutal rushing numbers on both sides of the ball have to be considered against the competition. SC BY 3 AKRON (NL) Buffalo 10:30 AM Akron s 3-0 start in MAC play went up in smoke with a lopsided loss at Toledo. That game followed up a big win and came on a short week but the Zips still lead the MAC East. Buffalo is just 3-5 on the season but with exclusively close losses as the Bulls started the season 7-0 ATS before missing last week at Miami, OH. Buffalo won 41-20 last season in this matchup as a 17-point underdog at home which stared a four-game slide to close the season for the Zips, missing a bowl game by one win. Buffalo had 378 rushing yards in last season s win and Akron s run defense allows 4.9 yards per carry while posting only 3.5 yards per carry on offense as the Bulls could again enjoy an edge on the ground. BUFFALO BY 3 Louisville (-3) WAKE FOREST 11:20 AM Wake Forest fell apart in the second half last week to turn a double-digit lead into a double-digit loss. The Demon Deacons have dropped three in a row and the run defense that had excellent numbers on the season surrendered several big runs last week. The schedule is very difficult the rest of the way as returning to a bowl game is not a given. Louisville hasn t matched last season s success but winning at Florida State is a great accomplishment. The Cardinals are in a daunting travel spot in a possible letdown spot and last season s 44-12 score was incredibly misleading as Wake Forest actually led Louisville into the fourth quarter in that game. WAKE FOREST BY 4
Miami, FL (-20½) NORTH CAROLINA The Hurricanes have survived in dangerous games the past two weeks to move to 4-0 in ACC play. They are a heavy favorite this week before a pair of games that should determine whether or not the Hurricanes will be a factor in the national picture. At 1-7 North Carolina s season has been a disaster but the Tar Heels have competed reasonably well in most weeks until last week s 59-7 result in Blacksburg. North Carolina has defeated Miami the past two seasons as this matchup should have the attention of the Hurricanes even ahead of the upcoming showdown with Virginia Tech. MIAMI BY 24 MICHIGAN (-24) Rutgers It didn t look like a winning performance in the box score but Rutgers won its second straight Big Ten game hosting Purdue last week. This will be a tougher challenge but after losing 78-0 last season at home in this matchup with Michigan pouring it on with three fourth quarter touchdowns this should be a motivated Knights team. The honeymoon is over for Jim Harbaugh in Ann Arbor with losses in two of the last three weeks and a humiliating 42-13 result in last week s showcase game. Michigan was out-gained 506-269 against Penn State as the offense has not been able to provide even adequate results to support a talented defense. MICHIGAN BY 20 MARSHALL (-16½) Florida International 1:30 PM Marshall is now 6-1 to have already doubled last season s 3-win count. The schedule has been very suspect however and that isn t going to change this week. Florida International is well regarded but the Panthers are quietly 4-2 under Butch Davis and with two weeks following the upset over Tulane this will be a squad ready for the opportunity. Marshall has featured an excellent run defense but FIU has a veteran quarterback and the Panthers beat Marshall last season 31-14 with over 500 yards of offense. Marshall has five non-offensive scores this season including two the past two weeks for some big breaks to inflate the numbers. MARSHALL BY 14 Appalachian State (-4) MASSACHUSETTS The Minutemen finally broke into the win column with a 55-20 result following six narrow losses to start the season. Appalachian State is 5-2 but the Mountaineers continue to scrape by with four narrow wins in Sun Belt play despite facing for of the lesser squads in the league. Appalachian State is likely to control the running game in this matchup and while laying points has been risky with this group Massachusetts isn t likely to play as well this week as they did last week in a favorable opportunity off a bye. APP ST BY 13 PITTSBURGH (-3½) Virginia 11:30 AM The Panthers delivered a comeback win last week and after a tough first month through a challenging schedule the Panthers have good opportunities at home the next two weeks. A breakthrough season for Virginia hit a setback last week with a stunning 41-10 loss hosting Boston College. Kurt Benkert struggled amidst great pressure last week and was eventually replaced. He has 15 touchdowns against just four interceptions but on only 6.4 yards per attempt and the Cavaliers have a limited running game. A bounce back is possible for the Cavaliers but Pittsburgh s difficult early schedule is starting to pay dividends. PITTSBURGH BY 7 CLEMSON (NL) Georgia Tech The Tigers have had a long layoff following their first loss of the season and a difficult crossover game is waiting. Clemson won 26-7 early last season in this matchup with a 442-124 yardage edge. Clemson has a critical game with current ACC Coastal leader NC State up next week but having two weeks to prepare for the triple-option off a loss should be beneficial. Clemson is allowing just 2.9 yards per rush as the one-dimensional Yellow Jackets aren t likely to have great opportunities coming off last week s comeback win. The Yellow Jackets are undefeated ATS this season however and any underdog with a great rushing presence is hard to pass up. CLEMSON BY 10 Missouri (-11) CONNECTICUT 5:30 PM The Tigers broke a five-game slide with a blowout win over Idaho and Missouri has another favorable non-conference opportunity this week before going back to the SEC grind. After a rough start to the season the Huskies have hung on for consecutive wins in conference play. Bryant Shirreffs didn t open the season as the starter but he has posted outstanding numbers to transform Connecticut into a viable offensive team. The Huskies haven t run the ball with any success as this game could turn into a shootout as Missouri has scored 28 or more points four times this season including each of the past three games in October. MISSOURI BY 14 Oklahoma State (-7½) WEST VIRGINIA The Mountaineers survived a late scare last week to move to 5-2 with the losses coming away from home by a touchdown against quality teams. This is just the second home game of the Big XII season for the Mountaineers who have had great drama in the fourth quarter in all three October weeks. Not all transfer quarterbacks fit in but Will Grier has been outstanding leading the nation with 26 touchdown passes while completing 66 percent of his passes. Mason Rudolph has received more attention with lesser numbers for the Cowboys who have narrowly survived in both Big XII road games this season. Oklahoma State won 37-20 at home last season when the Mountaineers were a 6-0 top 10 team. These squads look pretty similar at this point and more 4th quarter drama looks possible. OK ST BY 3 Indiana (-4½) MARYLAND Maryland has dropped three in a row in Big Ten play while Indiana is 0-4 in conference play. The Hoosiers have had to play the four top teams in the East so far and have actually competed well in those games despite going 0-4 S/U and ATS with a couple of painful spread results for Hoosier backers. Indiana has featured an excellent run defense allowing just 3.8 yards per carry despite the stiff competition and the Maryland has had little success in the passing game down to its third quarterback. Indiana won 42-36 last season hosting Maryland and this will be a second straight road game. Ultimately the Hoosiers appear to have a higher ceiling if they can handle the emotional toll of the narrow misses the past two weeks. INDIANA BY 10 VIRGINIA TECH (-15½) Duke 6:20 PM Duke has gone from 4-0 to 4-4 with a blown lead last week for a third consecutive seven-point defeat. Everything went right for Virginia Tech last week in a blowout and this could be a dangerous game ahead of next week s matchup in Coral Gables that figures to decide the Coastal title. Duke has given the Hokies a lot of trouble in recent years with the Blue Devils winning outright in two of the past four meetings and each of the last four games decided by three or fewer points. The Hokies might be a bit overvalued with a rather weak set of wins other than the opening win over West Virginia, a game a game in which they still allowed nearly 600 yards. VT BY 9 COASTAL CAROLINA (-7½) Texas State 5:00 PM Texas State has been off for two weeks knowing this game is a great opportunity for a FBS win. Coastal Carolina has drawn two of the top Sun Belt teams the past two weeks, losing badly at Arkansas State but giving Appalachian State a tough game. Ultimately the Chanticleers have still lost six in a row in a tough debut season at the FBS level. Value might be with the road team that many have rated the worst in the nation. CC BY 3 Wisconsin (-26) ILLINOIS The encouraging 2-0 start for Illinois seems like it was a long time ago. The quality of those wins has also diminished and after playing fairly competitive games the past two weeks Illinois faces a very difficult matchup this week vs. the clear leader in the Big Ten West. The Badgers have had some turnovers and missed opportunities on offense in recent weeks but the defense has impressed though with minimal weight on the schedule. Much bigger games are ahead in November and two of the past three meetings with Illinois have been close calls. The rushing numbers paint a severe edge for the Badgers who might find a way to pull away by just enough again. WISCONSIN BY 28 Kansas State (-23½) KANSAS 2:00 PM TCU held Kansas to a net total of 21 yards last week as a miserable run for the Jayhawks continues. Kansas has been shut out the past two weeks and has allowed at least 42 points in all six FBS games this season. Kansas State has been a disappointment at 3-4 on the season with several narrow defeats including last week s narrow homecoming loss against Oklahoma. Kansas State has dominated the history of this series in recent years with eight straight wins and only last season s missed cover in that run. Supporting Kansas right now isn t worth the risk. K-STATE BY 27 IOWA (-7½) Minnesota 5:30 PM The Gophers held on last week at home against Illinois to halt a three-game slide. There are no easy games remaining as P.J. Fleck s first season will hinge on getting at least two wins in the final five games to make the postseason. Iowa has had a lot of success in this rivalry but the past two meetings have been very close misses for the Gophers including a five-point loss in Iowa City two years ago when Iowa was an undefeated top 10 squad. Minnesota has the superior rushing offense and the superior run defense as the underdog is a threat with Iowa off a tough loss. IOWA BY 1 WYOMING (-3) New Mexico 6:30 PM A late rally from the Lobos last week fell just short and the next two weeks look critical for New Mexico to return to a bowl game as they still have games at Texas A&M and at San Diego State. Wyoming managed just 14 points at Boise State last week as the offense has been disappointing, unable to match the great production from last season. With the Cowboys gaining just 3.1 yards per rush and New Mexico still one of the most productive rushing teams in the nation the points are appealing. NEW MEXICO BY 4 Arkansas State (-5½) NEW MEXICO STATE Tyler Rogers is one of the most prolific passers in the nation with nearly 2,500 yards already this season. With the most attempts in the nation Rogers also leads the nation in interceptions. At 3-4 a bowl bid is possible to end a decade plus of losing for the Aggies with this the most difficult remaining game on the schedule. ASU is pacing the Sun Belt at 3-0 and while the Red Wolves won 41-22 last season the yardage was nearly even. ASU BY 7 BYU (-14) San Jose State 2:00 PM These squads are both 1-7 with only FBS wins. That isn t a huge surprise for a San Jose State squad in the midst of a major transition but BYU s fall has been shocking this season, hitting a low point last week scoring just 17 points against what had been the nation s worst defense. BYU will be a solid favorite despite clocking a 0-8 ATS record on the season with the Cougars posting twice as many interceptions as touchdowns in the passing game. San Jose State will be ready for the opportunity. BYU BY 11
Texas San Antonio (-16) UTEP 0-7 UTEP was off last week and while the record is lousy the team has been competitive the past two games now playing under Mike Price. In five overtimes last season the Miners outlasted UTSA 52-49. The Roadrunners have struggled the past three weeks as the 3-0 start is looking like a mirage though UTSA did get by Rice last week for a homecoming win even with the offense manageing only 13 points despite 448 yards. UTEP has just two home games remaining and a good effort could be in store. UTSA BY 10 IDAHO (-2½) UL-Monroe 4:00 PM A 3-0 run to start the Sun Belt season has been cancelled out with back-toback 10-point defeats for the Warhawks. This will be a second straight road game after allowing well over 500 yards at South Alabama last week. Idaho is 2-5 in the program s final FBS season with this being the second to last home game of the season. The Vandals have three single-digit defeats this season to fail to match last season s success. Idaho won 34-31 in Monroe last season, for a second straight win in this series and the situation may favor a rebound for the Vandals after allowing 68 last week. IDAHO BY 4 COLORADO STATE (-12) Air Force 2:00 PM Air Force has come through with narrow wins the past two weeks to reach 3-4 and the next two weeks will feature two of the biggest games of the season. Colorado State is 4-0 in Mountain West play but they have had close calls the last two weeks and the next three games should decide the division title. Air Force won 49-46 last season but the Rams have not lost in their new stadium this season. Air Force is allowing 6.3 yards per rush this season as the Rams should have great options on offense. CSU BY 17 SOUTHERN MISS (-14) Uab 6:00 PM The Golden Eagles lost 45-24 in UAB s final game before the two-year hiatus in 2014. After a falling from 9-5 to 7-6 last season and losing Nick Mullens expectations were grounded in Hattiesburg this season. At 5-2 Southern Miss is Conference USA West contender with this being an important game to stay in the race. The past five UAB games have all been decided by seven or fewer points but after a pair of narrow home wins the Blazers got caught in a one-point loss last week at Charlotte. This could be a difficult spot back on the road again in a tough venue. SO MISS BY 17 COLORADO (-3½) California 1:00 PM The Buffaloes are 4-4 on the season but the only win of substance came in the opening week. Steven Montez has struggled with his accuracy and despite more than 1,000 yards from Phillip Lindsay the offense continues to miss the mark. California went for the win in overtime last week and came up short as the Bears are just 1-4 in Pac-12 play despite a very encouraging run in the first season for Justin Wilcox. These teams haven t faced off since a double-overtime win for California in 2014 and this will certainly feel like a bowl elimination game between 4-4 squads that don t have great remaining opportunities for wins in November. CALIFORNIA BY 3 Usc (-3) ARIZONA STATE 9:45 PM The Trojans are out of the national running in all but the most extreme scenarios after a blowout loss last week. That miss was out of conference however and USC still leads the Pac-12 South with this game going a long way to determining the division champion. Arizona State has been a pleasant surprise with a 3-1 league start. The Sun Devils followed up the big win over Washington with an impressive win at Utah. Arizona State owns a strong home underdog track record and this is homecoming in Tempe looking to avenge blowout losses in this matchup the past two seasons. Manny Wilkins doesn t have the TD count of Sam Darnold but he has 7 fewer interceptions. Arizona State still has a shaky statistical profile however with terrible rushing numbers while catching big turnover breaks last week. USC BY 7 Louisiana Tech (-13) RICE Louisiana Tech (3-4) couldn t overcome Southern Miss last Saturday, falling 34-27 in double overtime. To make matters worse, Southern Miss rallied late in the game to send it into OT so it was a game the Bulldogs were certainly capable of winning. The Bulldogs didn t get a sterling performance from QB J Mar Smith, one of the nation s leading passers. Smith completed just 11 of 28 passes for 194 yards and tossed an interception. The good news is, Louisiana Tech should be able to handle 1-6 Rice this week, even on the road. The Owls are coming off a 20-7 defeat to Texas-San Antonio (4-2) in which they allowed big yardage despite the low scoring. LA TECH BY 21 Utah (-3½) OREGON 4:45 PM Since rolling off four straight wins to open the season, Utah (4-3) has dropped three straight games, including a 30-10 setback to Arizona State (4-3) last Saturday in Salt Lake City. The Utes committed four turnovers and struggled to move the ball against a solid ASU defense. After missing two games with an injury, Utah welcomed the return of QB Tyler Huntley, but the signal-caller finished just 19 of 35 passing with 155 yards and four interceptions. Oregon (4-4) has dealt with its own inept offense. The oncepotent Ducks dropped their third-straight contest on Saturday, falling 31-14 at UCLA. QB Braxton Burmeister threw for only 74 yards, but ran for both of Oregon s touchdowns and Oregon out-rushed UCLA by 104 yards and had more first downs but the Ducks had two costly turnovers and a missed FG, now having scored just 31 points the past three games. UTAH BY 3 NOTRE DAME (-7½) NC State Now looking like a serious ACC and possible national threat NC State (6-1) was off last week ahead of a huge test. QB Ryan Finley continues to be one of the nation s most accurate passers now with a streak of 313 passes without a pick. The Wolfpack have won six-straight games, their longest streak since 2002 and the next two weeks will determine whether it will be a special season in Raleigh. The Fighting Irish are coming off a 49-14 trouncing of No. 11 USC in South Bend. After falling 20-19 to No. 15 Georgia on Sept. 9, Notre Dame has dominated everyone in its path. RB Josh Adams lit up the Trojans for 191 yards on 19 carries and three touchdowns and the rushing attack is second nationally at 7.1 yards per carry. NC State allows just 3.0 yards per rush and could deliver an upset. NC STATE BY 3 WASHINGTON (-17) Ucla UCLA (4-3) emerged from a halftime tie with a victory over Oregon last week at the Rose Bowl. QB Josh Rosen, a potential first-round pick in next spring s NFL Draft, finished with 266 yards passing and two TDs, completing 21 of 36 pass attempts. Despite the victory, the Bruins suffered some key injuries that could hamper them against No. 12 Washington this week. The Huskies are 6-1, but still shaking their heads after falling 13-7 to Arizona State on Oct. 14. Washington had a bye last week to regroup and prepare for UCLA at home, the first meeting since a 44-30 loss in 2014 in Seattle. Washington s elite run defense may not be a huge factor this week. WASHINGTON BY 10 TROY (-25½) Georgia Southern A rough season took a turn for the worse for Georgia Southern after the winless Eagles fell 55-20 to 1-6 UMass last week. As a result, Georgia Southern dismissed coach Tyson Summers on Sunday. The Eagles are reeling and it likely won t get much better when they travel to Troy (5-2) this Saturday. Troy s defense looked very impressive in a sound 34-10 win at 3-3 Georgia State last week. Offensively, QB Brandon Silvers torched Georgia State for 335 yards passing with two touchdowns. With the Sun Belt s leading defense and an offensive weapon in Silvers, it could be a long day for hapless Georgia Southern now in a transition. TROY BY 28 Michigan State (-1) NORTHWESTERN Michigan State (6-1) doesn t wow teams with a juggernaut offense, but the Spartans keep getting the job done. MSU held off pesky Indiana (3-4) for a 17-9 win on Saturday, extending its winning streak to four games. QB Brian Lewerke struggled most of the game, but came through when it counted, throwing a TD pass with less than six minutes remaining. The Spartans improved to 4-0 in the Big Ten and have surprised after a dreadful campaign a year ago. Northwestern (4-3) survived against Iowa last week, winning a 17-10 nail-biter in overtime. The Wildcats received strong performances from QB Clayton Thorson and RB Justin Jackson. Last season Northwestern won 54-40 in East Lansing as the Spartans will remember. MSU BY 10 NORTH TEXAS (-11½) Old Dominion 5:30 PM Old Dominion (2-5) couldn t stop QB Mike White in last week s 35-31 heartbreaking loss to Western Kentucky (5-2). White threw five touchdown passes, sending the Monarchs to their fifth-consecutive loss. Despite the loss, Old Dominion s Ray Lawry returned from injury, rushing for 166 yards and hitting the end zone three times. The Monarchs are led by QB Steven Williams, a 17-year-old freshman. Williams youth showed against Western Kentucky as he tossed three interceptions. North Texas (4-3) had no answers on defense, falling hard to Florida Atlantic, 69-31, allowing 804 total yards. Mean Green QB Mason Fine kept the game from being a total blowout, completing 31 of 47 passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns. Expect a rebound from the C-USA West leaders. UNT BY 17 Texas (-7½) BAYLOR Texas (3-4) had No. 10 Oklahoma State on the ropes last Saturday, but QB Sam Ehlinger was intercepted in the end zone in OT and the Longhorns were dealt another close loss. It appears to get easier this week as Texas travels to 0-7 Baylor. The Bears, however, pushed No. 23 West Virginia to the limit last week before falling 38-36. Baylor outscored the Mountaineers 23-0 in the fourth quarter and failed going for 2 and the tie late. Freshman QB Charlie Brewer came into the game late and gave Baylor a spark, throwing two touchdown passes. It ll be interesting to see if the Bears stick with Brewer or continue with junior Zach Smith as they try to earn their first win of the season looking to avenge a one-point loss from last season when the Bears were 6-0 and ranked #8 in the AP poll. TEXAS BY 3 TCU (-6½) Iowa State TCU (7-0) continued its perfect start by pounding lowly Kansas, 43-0, in Forth Worth. The Horned Frogs moved up to No. 4 in the nation with a dominant defensive performance. QB Kenny Hill totaled five touchdown passes through the air and he ll be needed this week against a formidable Iowa State run defense that allows just 3.4 yards per rush. The Horned Frogs are likely to get a stiffer challenge this week when they travel to 5-2 upstart Iowa State. The Cyclones cracked into the Top 25 with an impressive 31-13 blowout of Texas Tech in Lubbock with an impressive defensive showing against one of the nation s most productive offenses. Coach Matt Campbell appears to be turning the program around and a win this week would incredibly put the Cyclones in the Big XII lead. TCU BY 3
Georgia (-14) Florida At EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Florida Georgia (7-0) enjoyed a bye after trouncing 1-5 Missouri 53-28 on Oct. 14. The Bulldogs have leaned on a strong defense and dangerous rushing attack to remain unbeaten this season. While its pass defense showed cracks against the Tigers, Georgia had plenty of offense, totaling 407 yards in the first half. Florida (3-3) is also coming off a bye after suffering a 19-17 loss to Texas A&M on Oct. 14. The Gators continue to get little production from QB Feleipe Franks who threw two interceptions and was sacked five times against the Aggies. While Georgia could be exposed with the deep pass, Franks and the Gators haven t offered that potential and the run defense numbers should allow Georgia to effectively seal the SEC East. UGA BY 28 Florida Atlantic (-6½) WESTERN KENTUCKY 3:30 PM Florida Atlantic stumbled out of the gate, but have since won three straight games and put up some eye-popping numbers on offense. Lane Kiffin s team is coming off a 69-31 victory over North Texas in Boca Raton in which the Owls scored on their first 11 drives. RB Devin Singletary rushed for three touchdowns as FAU s explosive offense totaled 804 yards. The Owls have scored more than 35 points in all four of their victories. Western Kentucky (5-2) survived a scare against 2-5 Old Dominion, holding on to a 35-31 win last week. QB Mike White has thrown 10 TD passes in the last two games and just one interception, resembling the productive Hilltoppers offensive numbers from last season. The recent scheduling is far more suspect on Western Kentucky s side in this key C-USA East game. FAU BY 13 Washington State (-2½) ARIZONA 8:30 PM Washington State (7-1) rebounded from a puzzling loss to California by cruising to a 28-0 win against Colorado (4-4) in Pullman. In heavy rain and swirling winds, No. 15 Washington State carved up the Buffaloes on the ground for 194 yards. Meanwhile, QB Luke Falk fired three touchdown passes, coming back strong after a rough outing against Cal the previous week. Unlike the Cougars the week before, Arizona (5-2) managed to top Cal, winning a thrilling 45-44 clash in double overtime on Saturday. Arizona has definitely received a spark from QB Khalil Tate. Since replacing Brandon Dawkins, Tate has rushed for nearly 700 yards, while passing for 468 in three games. This is the Wildcats first game in a tough three-game stretch and it will be intriguing to see how Rich Rodriguez s team responds having lost 69-7 in this matchup last season. Supporting the strong rushing team vs. the strong passing team is generally a preferred strategy. ARIZONA BY 3 OKLAHOMA (-20½) Texas Tech Texas Tech (4-3) continues to struggle against Top 25 teams. On Saturday, the Red Raiders fell 31-13 to No. 25 Iowa State and their two previous losses were against West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Uncharacteristically, coach Kliff Kingsbury stuck to the ground game and the Cyclones shut down one of the nation s best offenses. QB Nic Shimonek threw for 207 yards but failed to reach the end zone and tossed one interception. The Red Raiders will have a steeper hill to climb when they travel to No. 10 Oklahoma (6-1) this week but the Sooners continue to look like a marginal defensive squad. The Sooners knocked off resilient Kansas State (3-4) with a 42-35 win on the road last week. QB Baker Mayfield threw for 410 yards and helped the Sooners rally from a 21-10 halftime deficit. RB Rodney Anderson had 22 carries for 147 yards and two touchdowns in the comeback. This will be another battle of two high-powered offenses with Oklahoma hard to justify as a heavy favorite with a loss and two narrow wins vs. the middle of the Big XII this month. Texas Tech put up 59 points in last season s loss. OKLAHOMA BY 7 MISSISSIPPI (NL) Arkansas Arkansas (2-5) was manhandled by No. 21 Auburn, 52-20, last Saturday in Fayetteville. It was the second straight week the Razorbacks have started freshman QB Cole Kelley for injured Austin Allen who is a question mark this week. Ole Miss (3-4) suffered insult to injury last Saturday. After dropping an SEC game to LSU, QB Shea Patterson was ruled out for the season after suffering a knee injury. In the 40-24 loss, Tigers RB Derrice Guice chalked up a season-high 276 yards rushing against an overmatched Ole Miss defense as Arkansas could have opportunities on the ground. Pride is at stake for two teams at the bottom of the SEC West with Ole Miss ineligible for the postseason and Arkansas at 2-5 and still with a road game at LSU ahead in November as there is no margin for error. ARKANSAS BY 10 OHIO STATE (-6½) Penn State In a game that was supposed to be one of the week s marquee battles, No. 2 Penn State routed No. 19 Michigan, 42-13, in State College. RB Saquon Barkley continued his run at the Heisman Trophy with three touchdowns and 108 yards rushing on 19 carries. Ohio State (6-1) continues to build momentum after ripping Nebraska (3-4) 56-14 ahead of last week s bye week. QB J.T. Barrett threw five touchdown passes and rushed for two more as the Buckeyes pounded the Cornhuskers in Lincoln. The Buckeyes offense has racked up more than 500 yards in the last five games looking like the dominant national contender most expected to see. Penn State memorably upset the Buckeyes last season 24-21 with two huge special teams blocks offsetting a huge yardage deficit. Penn State has won and/or covered in just 2 of the last 12 trips to Columbus. OSU BY 11 Mississippi State (PK) TEXAS A&M 6:15 PM Mississippi State (5-2) overwhelmed a then 5-1 Kentucky team 45-7 on Saturday in Starkville. The Bulldogs relentless defensive attack accounted for two turnovers, three sacks and seven tackles for loss in the victory. Offensively, the Bulldogs totaled 441 yards with QB Nick Fitzgerald leading the charge. Fitzgerald finished with 270 total yards and reached the end zone three times. Texas A&M (5-2) nipped Florida, 19-17, on Oct. 14 and was idle last week. Freshman QB Kellen Mond continues to make progress each week and showed poise in the narrow win at Florida. If not for the stunning 45-44 loss to UCLA in the season opener, the Aggies would be 6-1 with their lone loss coming against No. 1 Alabama in a tight 27-19 contest as Kevin Sumlin s team has put together a decent season in the face of a lot of early criticism. The Aggies won t catch Alabama but if they have huge home games the next two weeks that could move them up the SEC ladder with a New Year s Day bowl still not impossible. TEXAS A&M BY 3 Boise State (-8½) UTAH STATE 9:00 PM Boise State (5-2) won its third straight game, pulling away from 4-3 Wyoming with a 24-14 win late Saturday night. QB Montell Cozart led Boise State with three touchdowns, two rushing and one passing, for the home victory. While its offense is still not consistent, Boise State continues to experiment with a dual-quarterback system with both having some success. Utah State bounced back from two-straight losses to trounce UNLV (2-5), 52-28, in Las Vegas, rallying back from an early 28-14 deficit. QB Jordan Love fired two long TD passes and finished with 316 yards passing while RB LaJaun Hunt scored three times with 101 yards on 16 carries. Love has passed up senior Kent Myers under center with the Aggies getting better results behind the redshirt freshman. Utah State (4-4) should be able to match Boise State s offense in this week s matchup with the Aggies winning 52-26 two years ago in the last trip to Logan for the Broncos. BOISE STATE BY 7 FRESNO STATE (-18½) Unlv 9:00 PM The Rebels (2-5) couldn t hang with Utah State last week, falling 52-28 at home. UNLV has dropped three-straight games, but continues to get solid outings from backfield mates Armani Rogers and Lexington Thomas. Against Utah State, the duo combined for four touchdowns and kept UNLV competitive. Fresno State improved to 5-2 with an impressive 27-3 win over San Diego State (6-2). The Bulldogs Josh Hokit had three rushing TDs and finished with 77 yards on 14 carries. In addition, Jordan Mims finished with 112 yards and QB Marcus McMaryion completed 10 passes for 176 yards. Since losing to No. 1 Alabama and No. 6 Washington earlier this season, Fresno State has hardly been tested during its four-game win streak and has emerged as perhaps the favorite in the MWC a year after going 0-8 in conference games and failing to defeat a FBS team on the season. UNLV remains a threat as a heavy underdog, fifth nationally gaining 6.3 yards per rush this season and the Rebels won 45-20 last season. Perfect against the spread value is now teetering against the Bulldogs. FRESNO BY 14 San Diego State (-9) HAWAI I 10:15 PM San Diego State is coming off a rough offensive performance, falling to Fresno State 27-3 at home. The 6-2 Aztecs only made it past midfield three times after its initial drive resulted in a fumble recovered by Fresno State. The Bulldogs also put the clamps on star running back Rashaad Penny who had 69 yards on 15 carries and no touchdowns. Hawaii (3-4) snapped a fourgame losing streak with a 37-26 win over San Jose State (1-7) on Oct. 14. The Rainbow Warriors have RB Diocemy Saint Juste, one of the nation s top rushers. Against San Jose State, Saint Juste gashed the Spartans for 202 yards and two scores on 39 carries. This will be a strong test for the Aztecs to see how good they really are against an average opponent, albeit on the road. Hawai i program has displayed some dysfunction in recent weeks and out of the bye week this is a critical game needing to display a better performance than last season s 55-0 defeat in this matchup. SDSU BY 14 SOUTH FLORIDA (-10½) Houston 2:45 PM The rushing offense for the Bulls gets a lot of attention but South Florida has allowed just 2.8 yards per rush on the season for one of the top run defenses in the nation. This could be a difficult matchup for Houston coming off blowing an early lead in a big Thursday night game against Memphis, effectively falling out of the division race in most scenarios. These teams didn t play last season but this game no longer looks like the toughest hurdle in a potential perfect season for USF. Houston allowed just 16 against Arizona and just 27 against Texas Tech but the Cougars have surrendered 87 points the past two games in AAC play as the defense continues to regress and the offense isn t built for big numbers. USF BY 14 JOE NELSON PICKS At www.vegasinsider.com