Shifting Gears European Levels of Investment in Cycling: Results and Insights UWE, 2 July 2013 Dr Kiron Chatterjee Kiron.Chatterjee@uwe.ac.uk Associate Professor in Travel Behaviour Centre for Transport & Society Department of Planning & Architecture
Get Britain Cycling! All Party Parliamentary Cycling Group called politicians to recognise the powerful case for substantial investment in cycling... and recommended an initial spending budget of 10 per person per year increasing to 20 (it is 24 in Netherlands). I aim to update you on experience in England on what can be achieved by targeted investment in cycling. 2
Contents of presentation 1. European levels of investment 2. Results a. National b. Bristol 3. Insights and conclusions 3
International cycling experience Denmark and Netherlands cycling declined after WWII but turned round in 1970s Growing number of European and North and South American cities where recent investment having effect 1. European levels of investment Odense, Denmark Pucher, J. Dill, J. and Handy, S. (2010). Infrastructure, programs, and policies to increase bicycling: An international review. Preventive Medicine, 50, S106-125. 4
1. European levels of investment UK cycling policy and investment National Cycling Strategy 1996 aim of quadrupling cycle trips by 2012 BUT cycle trips continued to decrease to 2008 Future of Transport (2004) local targets replace national target and 42 step action plan BUT no specific funding Cycling England set up 2005* and awarded funding for focussed investment in selection of towns/cities (Department of Health boosted funding in 2008) * Dissolved 2011 5
1. European levels of investment CDT/CCT programmes England has one of the lowest rates of cycling in Europe (2% of all trips) Six Cycle Demonstration Towns (CDTs) (2005-2011) expanded to include 12 new Cycling Cities and Towns (CCTs) (2008-2011) Aim to demonstrate whether European levels of investment in cycling can increase levels of cycling and deliver other benefits Capital and revenue expenditure Annual spend/person/year of 17 in CDTs and 14 in CCTs (compared to 2 in England outside London) 6
CDT/CCT programmes Infrastructure Cycle routes (on-road and off-road) Cycle parking facilities Lower speeds limits Equipment Low-cost bike purchase Cycle hire Training Children in schools Adults 1. European levels of investment Information, Marketing and Events Maps Personalised advice Cycle rides 7
1. European levels of investment CDT/CCT programmes Largest place was Bristol (570,000) and smallest place was Leighton-Linslade (38,000) Highest cycling mode share in Cambridge (28% cycle to work, 7% children cycle to primary school) 8
2. Results national Lift-off : results for CDTs (2005-09) Cycling counts showed increase in cycling on average of 27% across 6 CDTs Telephone interviews showed: No. adults cycling in typical week increased from 24.3% to 27.7% No. physically inactive adults decreased from 26.2% to 23.6% Active People Survey showed No. occasional cyclists increased from 11.8% to 15.1% No. regular cyclists increased from 2.6% to 3.5% Cycling increases not evident elsewhere in England Sloman L, Cavill N, Cope A, Muller L and Kennedy A (2009) Analysis and synthesis of evidence on the effects of investment in six Cycling Demonstration Towns. Report for Department for Transport and Cycling England. 9
2. Results national DfT commissioned evaluations Monitoring study (led by Sustrans with Cavill Associates and London South Bank University) will report on: Cycle count results for both CDTs and CCTs up to 2011 Results from other primary and secondary data Evaluation study (led by AECOM with University of the West of England and The Tavistock Institute) will report on: Large-scale pre-and post-intervention surveys of households in CCTs Qualitative interviews with residents in each CCT Interviews with local delivery teams and local and national stakeholders 10
2. Results national CEDAR study of cycling to work 2001-11 Used census data on usual mode of transport for journey to work Compared changes in cycling between population in CDTs/CCTs (intervention towns) and comparison towns Goodman A, Panter J, Sharp S J and Ogilvie D, (2013) Effectiveness and equity impacts of town-wide cycling initiatives in England: a longitudinal, controlled natural experimental study. Paper submitted to Social Science and Medicine 11
Commuter cycling modal share increased by +0.83% (and more in CDTs/CCTs than comparison towns) Prevalence of cycling (%, 95% CI) 0 2 4 6 8 1981 1991 2001 2011 Intervention towns Matched comparison Unfunded comparison National comparison Intervention period Diff-in-differences relative to matched group: 0.64 (0.56, 0.73) Ratio-of-ratios relative to matched group: 1.09 (1.07, 1.11)
Cycling (and walking) increased at expense of driving and not public transport 12 14 16 18 Walking 55 60 65 70 Driving (car, van & motorcycle) 1981 1991 2001 2011 1981 1991 2001 2011 Intervention towns Matched comparison Unfunded comparison National comparison
Increases in cycling across deprivation deciles in CDTs/CCTs Percentage-point change, 2011 vs. 2001 (95% CI) -1 0 1 Absolute percentage-point change, 2011 vs. 2001 Intervention towns Matched comparison Unfunded comparison National comparison 1 (most deprived) 2 3 4 5 (most affluent) Fifth of small-area deprivation (Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2010)
2. Results national Large variation between towns A1: Darlington A2: Derby A3: Brighton & Hove A4: Aylesbury A5: Exeter A6: Lancaster B1: York B2: Cambridge B3: Colchester B4: Southend B5: Leighton B6: Woking B7: Bristol B8: Shrewsbury B9: Stoke-on-Trent B10: Chester B11: Southport B12: Blackpool Percentage change in intervention towns I 2 99% -2 0 2 Percentage points 0.24 (95%CI -0.42, 0.90) In meta-regression, around 1/3 of heterogeneity explained by the extent to which towns invested in workplace schemes Cambridge: 28.3% 31.9% Bristol : 4.9% 8.1%
2. Results national CEDAR study - summary Increases in cycling to work larger than in comparison urban areas (and more equitable) Increases more substantial where targeted investment at workplaces But overall effect driven by small number of large towns would it apply to other towns in future? Study limitations Census period is largely pre-investment (results mask fall and rise?) Interested in cycling for non-commuting purposes Need to understand reasons for change Goodman A, Panter J, Sharp S J and Ogilvie D, (2013) Effectiveness and equity impacts of town-wide cycling initiatives in England: a longitudinal, controlled natural experimental study. Paper accepted in???? 16
2. Results Bristol National Highways and Transport Survey % respondents satisfied More positive perceptions over funding period 17
Quality of Life Survey 2. Results Bristol % respondents who go to work by cycle Confirms growth occurred during funding period (2011 result?) 18
2. Results Bristol Cycling to work increases 2001-11 by ward Blue = inner wards Orange = mid wards Green = outer wards 19
3. Insights and conclusions Understanding why people start cycling Question: What are circumstances and motivations to start cycling? Method: In-depth interviews in 12 CCTs Biographical approach (discussing changes to cycling/travel 2008-10 in the context of evolving lives) Explored role of life events and changing external environment Chatterjee, K., Sherwin, H. and Jain, J. (2013). Triggers for changes in cycling: The role of life events and modifications to the physical environment. Journal of Transport Geography, 30, 183-193. 20
3. Insights and conclusions Cycling trajectory Turning point Any point in the life span must be viewed dynamically as the consequence of past experience and future expectation as well as the integration of individual motive with external constraint (Giele and Elder (1998) 21
Move to live in Bristol Well I didn t buy it he bought it for me! Ha! But by then I d already sort of moved up and realised it was so much easier to get around by bike and I hadn t, I d sort of cycled on and off but because of the hills in Cornwall it always put me off a bit?. Female, 25-44, New Regular Cyclist, Bristol
Awareness of improved Cycle Route Network [ ] Well Cycle Southend and being a Cycle Town has encouraged me to cycle more yeah they have put more cycle routes in [ ] As a cyclist you always feel that everyone hates you, car drivers hate you on the road and pedestrians hate you on the pavement. There has been a definite shift away from that. Male, 45-64, New Regular Cyclist, Southend
Conclusions 3. Insights and conclusions Appear to be mixed fortunes amongst towns/cities receiving investment 2005-11 Need to wait for full evaluation results and look at non-commuting cycling Need to understand more the contextual factors and reasons individuals change Meanwhile, London has seen strong growth in cycling and has strong future ambition Cycling culture seems important alongside physical infrastructure Restraints on using car a critical factor? Cycle City Ambition Fund? 24
Thanks for your attention! 25