Marten Julian s York Ebor ONLINE PREVIEW
Day Four The Going: The times suggest that the ground was still on the easy side of good on Thursday. No significant rain is forecast on Friday evening or Saturday, so conditions may dry out during the course of the final day. 1.55: The Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Ext 1m) The interesting horse in this race is Convey. I had the son of Dansili at the top of my short-list for the 2,000 Guineas over the winter but he met with a setback and had to miss the spring campaign. He was never going to be given too hard a time on his return at Goodwood, where he raced a little keenly before becoming unbalanced when pulled out to challenge in the straight, but he kept on well to finish fourth to the useful Malabar. A horse rated 18lb superior finished a head in front of him, with rivals rated 105, 107 and 108 behind, so on paper it represented a very good effort and lead to a rise in the BHA mark from 95 to 106. Sir Michael Stoute s horses progress more than most for a run, especially ones returning from a break, and an entry for the Group 1 Champion Stakes is an indication of the high regard in which the colt is still held. However, working through official figures, he has something to find with most of his rivals. The other interesting horse here is Gm Hopkins. John Gosden s son of Dubawi deserved to win the Royal Hunt Cup after his misfortune at Newbury, where his challenge came just too late. He handled the quick ground better than I expected at Royal Ascot, where the strong pace suited him even though Ryan Moore felt he hit the front sooner than ideal. He never looked happy on the undulations, and from a wide draw in stall 18, off a 6lb higher mark next time out at Goodwood while there may have been a valid excuse for his defeat earlier in the season in the Lincoln. This easier surface and flatter track should suit him well. Mondialiste has the best form of the others. David O Meara s son of Galileo was trained in France until joining this yard in the early spring. He is rated very highly by his handler and was raised 8lb after winning last time at Pontefract by 10 lengths. Mahsoob has made giant strides this season and, having run just five times, may still have the potential to progress further. He struggled with the step up to a mile and a half in Group 2 company last time at Newmarket and may find this drop in grade and return to a mile more suitable. Basem moves up from handicap company and the easy ground will suit Top Notch Tonto, who ran very well on unsuitably quick going when chasing home Tullius here last month. He is ridden by Silvestre De Sousa. Flaming Spear has not yet
delivered on the promise of last season in two runs but will find this much easier than last time, when he finished 11 th in the French Guineas. This is a very trappy start to the day. I feel I have to stay with Convey in the belief that he has the potential to prove top class. Of the others the reliable Top Notch Tonto and Gm Hopkins will both appreciate the easier ground. The latter is overpriced at 10/1. 2.35: The Betfred Melrose Stakes (1m 6f) This is as competitive a renewal of the Melrose Handicap as I have seen, with a host of potential Pattern-class stayers lining up for this 1m 6f test. Having said that the horse I have had in mind for the race since seeing him win at Newmarket last month is Al, a son of Halling trained by Luca Cumani. Rated on 70 for that race, he took the lead inside the final furlong before powering away to win by seven lengths. A rise of 12lb means he has been able to slip into the foot of the handicap with Cam Hardie claiming a handy 3lb allowance. Al was still very green at Newmarket, hanging one way then the other when being brought to challenge, before pulling clear to win by an ever-expanding margin, looking as if he would relish a further quarter mile. Al has always promised to be a useful stayer he shaped well when fourth to Golden Horn and Storm The Stars in that Nottingham maiden last season but he has thrived in the last few weeks and could prove very well treated on a mark of 82. His speed figure holds up to inspection and the ground won t bother him. Of the others stable-companion King Bolete will go well, provided he settles. Wonder Laish, for whom William Haggas once held Classic aspirations, has plenty of talent but has not been easy to train. Dannyday is consistent but Sir Michael Stoute s horses have not been firing this week. Maxwell is not certain to stay but Black Key will have no trouble with the trip and comes here less-exposed than most. The progressive Duke Street is likely to be up with the pace. Provided his inexperience doesn t catch him out I expect Al to go very close. Whatever happens he is one to keep on your side with a view to the longer term. Next best are stable-companion King Bolete and Dannyday. 3.10: The Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (6f) It is hard to assess Wesley Ward s US challenger Finnegan. One thing we do know from his five-length victory at Pimlico in May is that he is very pacey and, from the way he quickened, also has a turn of foot. The concern may be the ground. The standard is set by the admirably tough Buratino, who has kept improving all season. He beat Air Force Blue and 15 others very comfortably in the Coventry Stakes before finding that horse too good for him on easier ground in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes. A 3lb penalty doesn t help, but this tough son of Exceed And Excel sets the height of the bar and could prove hard to beat. Ajaya was comfortably beaten in the Norfolk Stakes before winning here in July by four and a half lengths. He then ran the winner to a head in the Prix Robert Papin at
Maisons-Laffitte. Despite being by Invincible Spirit the easy ground seems to suit him. King Of Rooks, third in the Norfolk, has since run second in the Molecomb Stakes without appearing to progress from his impressive five-length defeat of Buratino at Sandown in May. He looked a world-beater that day, and 7/1 is far too big a price for a colt with that level of ability. The trick may be to keep him covered up, and I suspect that is the tactic Frankie Dettori will try to adopt here today. Steady Pace has twice come up against the very talented Shalaa. He is another that sets a useful standard. Raucous has won both his starts but this race may come too soon for him. Of the others Areen has not progressed from his close second to Washington DC at Royal Ascot. King Of Rooks would not be an obvious choice for this race, but the likely searching pace could suit his hold-up style of racing. He saw too much daylight when second at Royal Ascot and may not have suited the track at Goodwood. If he can reproduce the form he showed when beating Buratino by five lengths at Sandown in May he will go very close and, at around 7/1, he is very reasonable each-way value. 3.45: The Betfred Ebor Handicap (1m 6f) I like the way Luca Cumani s horses are running at the moment and I know he has had this race in mind for Ajman Bridge all season. The son of Dubawi has not won the races his talent merits, with just two victories from 14 starts, but he has run consistently well this season with the result that his mark has risen from 95 to 105. There was plenty of encouragement for this race when he stayed on to finish a close fourth on his first attempt at 1m 6f, staying on to finish a half-length fourth to Blue Wave at Goodwood. Before that he ran sound races twice here at York and when running Arab Dawn to half a length in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot (off 100). Ajman Bridge has run three good races on the Knavesmire and there may be scope for further improvement over this trip. Clondaw Warrior just creeps into the foot of the handicap off 9st 1lb. The eight-yearold stayed 2m 4f very well when winning the Ascot Stakes and followed up over 1m 4f at Galway. He is still improving and deserves his place at the head of the market. Quick Jack is a favourite of mine. Tony Martin s six-year-old should have won more races than he has, but everything went right for him in the Galway Hurdle when he beat the useful Max Dynamite by two and a quarter lengths. The time before he ran subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Trip To Paris to three-quarters of a length in the Chester Cup, trying to concede the winner 6lb. His form figures, over hurdles and on the Flat, in his last 13 starts read 2121121313321 a remarkable record when you consider the level at which he has operated. Fields of Athenry comes here the least exposed horse in the field, having run just five times. He has a Listed and Group 3 victory to his name but has to overcome stall 22 and is being ridden by a relatively inexperienced apprentice. Fun Mac has been kept fresh for this since running Clondaw Warrior to half a length in the Ascot Stakes. The son of Shirocco has risen 18lb in two starts this season and has the best speed figure in the race. His two runs this season have been on quick ground but he has won on soft going in the past and comes here with a solid each-way chance. He meets Clondaw Warrior on 4lb better terms.
Astronereus has thrived this season but I would not expect him to confirm Goodwood form with Ajman Bridge. Wadi Al Hattawi has won twice here but is up 7lb for a narrow victory last time out. Arab Dawn is consistent but not bred to stay this trip. Stablecompanion Nearly Caught stays further but has twice been beaten off lower marks than this. Arabian Comet has run well in Pattern-class company and should appreciate this drop in grade. Irish raider Toe The Line has finished in the first three in 12 of her 15 starts. She is not without a chance as she stays and seems to be improving. The others need to improve. Quick Jack is the one they have to beat but I have heard good reports about Ajman Bridge, who represents fair value at around 12/1. Fun Mac is the saver, with the consistent and in-form Quick Jack a serious threat. Toe The Line is the pick of the outsiders. 4.20: The Julia Graves Roses Stakes (5f) It may be worth giving a chance to Soapy Aitken here. Clive Cox is not one to overface his horses, but after creating a very favourable impression when winning at Leicester and Windsor, he ran a creditable fourth to Washington DC in the Windsor Castle Stakes before finding the ground too quick behind today s rival Riflescope at Sandown. He was then short of room, running well, when beaten four lengths in a valuable sales race at Newbury. Impressive five-length Ripon winner Ornate is a short-priced favourite on the strength of that performance, but he has not competed at this level. Rouleau ran well behind Kachy and King Of Rooks in the Molecomb having won over six furlongs at Windsor and Ascot. Soapy Aitken is overpriced at 12/1 each-way given his early promise and that he is back racing on more suitable ground. 4.55: The Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes (Ext 1m 2f) Roseburg rightly heads the market following his short-head second to Elkaayed on his return to action at Doncaster in August. The handicapper has raised him 3lb for that, from 99 to 102, but he comes here a fresh horse and the evidence from that race suggests he is maintaining last season s steady rate of improvement. This is another tricky handicap, but Roseburg could complete a great day for his trainer Luca Cumani.
5.25: The Betfred Apprentice Stakes (5f) This is hardly the ideal way to end the meeting but the drop back to five furlongs could be the answer for Handsome Dude. David Barron s son of Showcasing is out of a mare by Primo Dominie so the six furlongs of his last two starts may well have proved beyond him. The time before he won over an extended five furlongs at Wetherby and today has the assistance of the very promising Jack Garritty, who would be as good as any of these. At around 8 1 I expect the return to five furlongs will see Handsome Dude back on the winning trail. York Ebor Update Line If you want to keep in touch with Marten s latest thoughts on York ring him on: 0906 150 1555 Selections given in the first minute (calls charged at 1.50 a minute at all times) May cost more from a mobile Updated at 8pm the evening before and again at 11am each day. Copyright in all Marten Julian s publications/services is strictly reserved by the publisher. No material therein may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without written permission from Marten Julian.