californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Saturday, May 12, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Sunday Funday Well, nine of nine as we assessed correctly last Sunday is really really good. I wish I could do that each race day for you ladies and gents, but unfortunately I am not a soothsayer, just a savant. Lol My detractors would say, about Sunday, big deal, it was all chalk. Well, it wasn t all chalk. Witness Race 6, $11.40 winner, and a couple of other non-favorite winners. Even if it was all chalk, I can tell you that picking all of the winners on a given race day is no mean task- it is a rarity (favorites only win about 33% of the time). The reason: if you had exactly eight horses each in nine races, the number of possibilities for selecting the winning horse in all races is 8 9. That number is a staggering 134,217,728. Hard to believe, isn t it? On the same logic, again, if there are eight horses in a race, the number of possibilities for a daily double combination is 64 (8 2 ). The Likeable Longshot I got a subscriber comment which made me laugh: I give up on the Likeable Longshot- they never! win! So, maybe I need to revisit the whole concept. By definition, a longshot is: A venture or guess that has only the slightest chance of succeeding or being accurate. (Merriam-Webster)(emphasis added) To say these never hit is inaccurate. We have recent examples where a $5 bet netted hundreds on a LL. They are not supposed to hit daily, weekly, or even regularly. It is not unlikely that we could go a couple of weeks or more without a hit. They are supposed to have only the slightest chance to win. But this is where risk/reward enters the conversation. We are betting say, $2, $5, beer money that we surely won t miss. We make the bet, then forget all about it. We don t get nervous like we would with a $50 or $100 bet.
The whole point is to have fun, throw a couple of bucks on a very unlikely (but certainly not impossible) winner. After all it could be a sizeable consolation prize in the event our main bet fails. Besides, I am merely the assistant coach. You are the coach. If you disagree with my thoughts on a Likeable Longshot, or anything else, just ignore me. Don t get mad at me, it s bad for your blood pressure. The Preakness- The Chance for A Triple Crown Winner May Lie Squarely on the Broad Shoulders of Justify, As Other Derby Participants Fall By the Wayside Well, Justify will definitely appear in The Preakness, per Bob Baffert. The same cannot be said for many of his Derby challengers, who will not comprise the fourteen horse field. Todd Pletcher s horses--- Audible, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, and Noble Indy are all out, because he doesn t like running a horse after just a twoweek break. ( Hello- planet Zebulon calling Earth, calling Earth horse trainers of the world, please come in ). The same apparently goes for Mendelssohn (did he actually race in The Derby?), Bolt D Oro, My Boy Jack and Hofburg, per The Washington Post. Look for my free, detailed Preakness Preview which will come out soon after the field is set, probably Monday, May 14. Also, I would like to reach many more potential subscribers with my 2018 Preakness Analysis so you can contemplate a significant price reduction to my subscribers from the $30 cost of my 2018 Kentucky Derby Analysis. SPECIAL PROJECTS If any of you happens to be going to a track other than a California thoroughbred track, and you want me to handicap that day s races at the foreign track, if you give me a few days notice I may, depending on my personal schedule, be able to handicap that track for you. The only problem is, since it will probably be a one-off analysis (i.e., you will almost certainly be the only buyer) I would have to charge you $35. Which works out to just about minimum wage for me since I will spend at least four-five hours handicapping and writing, more time proportionately if it is a twelve- race day like Gulfstream often has.
Anyway I like to see how my expertise works in other locations, so I am willing to take this kind of thing occasionally on if my schedule allows. Obviously this applies equally if you are simply choosing to BET A FOREIGN TRACK ON-LINE for some reason and want a second opinion. Thanks for reading this. Note: Post time today is 12:30 pm PDT and 3:30 pm EDT. Saturday, May 12, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day.
Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 1, 2, and 3 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Likeable Longshots are not available in the free version of californiawinning.com s selections, because M/ L
odds were not available at the time of this posting. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! RACE 1: Extremely well-rested Fashion Business knows almost nothing but the grass route, and, more specifically, the route of the one mile + variety, at which has hit the board in three of six tries, he drops way down from his graded high horse at which he placed last summer at Del Mar, his connections are excellent, with the undersung Joe Talamo as captain. Avalanche is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s) (and/or computers) as the M/L favorite, as he comes off a near-win here at race distance ( RD ), with this HOF veteran jockey aboard, he hit the board in three of five turf routes and won once at one and one-eighth miles, look for him to battle on. Temple Keys has a boatload of experience at RD--- fourteen races if you ca believe that, almost half of his c.v., and he won three of those, he is usually in the fray and generally closes well. Likeable Longshot: (There is one, see below as to how to view it ) RACE 2: Foxy Fresh is the prohibitive M/L favorite, in large measure because the mare has won two of five races at RD, both wins coming here, and in addition she comes off a laugher of a win at RD plus 330 feet here, by some four lengths, she sports and string of superior works and is trained by one of the best, she looms large in this spot. Coronado Cool moves down class-wise, has hit the board in all four races at RD, shows excellent connections and will be in the scrum. Restless Irish Dame has won two races at RD at Del Mar, in four tries at RD, this youngster won a boatload of money last year and four of nine races in the process, so she must be doing something right, I do worry about the six days rest she has undergone, as there is no precedent in her PP s for racing on such crazily short rest. Likeable Longshot: (There is one, see below as to how to view it )
RACE 3: All have raced at least once Well-rested Draft Pick is one of two entries to have raced at route distance (the other being Faversham), the colt knows nothing but the route and has hit the board in all five of his races, including three times at RD, his connections are very good and just look at those recent workouts--- including six furlongs @ 1:12 4 here about two weeks ago, he is ready to rock n roll. Despite my predilections, Victory Element is the M/L favorite, as the colt placed in his sprint debut here thirteen days ago, he is trained by a legend as much as a man (see a horse named Justify), and carries the latter s apparent favorite rider, a very talented one at that, just wonder if he has enough in the tank to win after such short rest. Speaking of Faversham, the roan is at least accustomed to route distances, which make up three-fourths of his resume, in each he has not had the best of trips to be sure, his works suggest he is a legitimate challenger, though we have a restless horse here just like Victory Element. ***** Likeable Longshots: JUST EMAIL THE CODE MR ED TO ME AT fryer08057@yahoo.com AND I WILL SEND YOU ALL LIKEABLE LONGSHOTS FREE OF CHARGE BACK TO YOUR EMAIL PROVIDED THAT THIS IS YOUR FIRST SUCH REQUEST THANK YOU OR SEE BELOW TO PURCHASE THE FULL ANALYSIS INCLUDING ALL LIKEABLE LONGSHOTS IT S NOT EXPENSIVE IN THE LEAST ***** californiawinning.com To see the rest of today s analysis---including the all-important Likeable Longshots --- Why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day less than what the touts charged for their card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, for either Today s Full Race card for the mere sum of $2, or, better yet, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment
Thanks very much. Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?